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U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%[W: 831]

Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

Conservative said:
So tell me how anyone can claim Obama's record as positive with the labor participation rate dropping?
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Yes, they are dropping, however if you look a graph you would see them trending down beginning in 2000. So, I don't think you can put the blame on President Obama. The baby boomers are beginning to retire and people are retiring much sooner. Also, it appears as though more and more young adults are seeking college education.

RealClearMarkets - Misunderstanding Declines In Labor Force Participation
 
Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

pbrauer said:
That graph does not restrict itself to only payroll jobs, there are many jobs where wages are not paid, such as volunteer jobs.
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Not according to the BLS glossary definition.

BLS Glossary

Further info:
Volunteering in the United States, 2012

 
Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%


So your thought is that people are retiring from the workforce and those jobs are not being replaced and thats somehow an explanation for the declining participation rate? That would be alarming news, it means the waves of baby boomers retiring will not open up positions for the rest of the workforce.
 
Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

Says who? How about Moody's? Goldman? If you wish to prop up an opinion piece that contains no actual econometric analysis over the consensus of these sources, by all means..

It's an estimation, and an informed one at that.

GDP and employment trends directly following its implementation for starters.
 
Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

Yeah, the baby boomers don't quite account for the dip in the LFPR, as the participation rate for those 55 and older has been trending upwards for two decades now. The 16-24 age bracket accounts for nearly the entire discrepancy (as others mentioned, demand for college education would be one of the causing factors).

Civilian labor force participation rates by age, sex, race, and ethnicity
 
Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

Certainly some of it, but not all of it. Read the article I posted.
 
Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

Conservative said:
My logic for voting for Bush is sound, the choice was Gore and Kerry and the results in 2004 warranted four more years, results you want to ignore.
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Which result was it that warranted 4 more years for Bush Jr. leading into the 2004 election?

Was it GDP for the president's 1st 15 quarters in office?

JFK/LBJ ............ 41.3%
Nixon ............... 33.3%
Eisenhower ....... 15.7%
Clinton ............. 12.7%
Reagan ............. 12.6%
Carter ............... 11.3%
Bush ................. 8.5%
GHW Bush .......... 7.7%

Or was it unemployment?

Clinton ............... -29%
JFK/LBJ .............. -22%
Reagan ............... +1%
Carter ................... 0%
Bush ................ +31%
Eisenhower ........ +34%
GHW Bush ......... +35%
Nixon ................ +62%
 
Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

There is no question that retiring baby boomers are driving the LFPR down. People are hitting retirement age these days at the rate of about 10,000 per day. How much it's driving it down is difficult to say since the BLS doesn't report on that statistic.

But there is also another classification of people who are driving down the LFPR which most are overlooking -- people on disability, which has increased signifiicantly since the onset of the recession.

 
Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%


If you pump 842 billion dollars into the economy you increase one of the components of GDP and the total will grow. It will be short term which it was and last quarter it was .4%. Please learn the components of GDP and you will understand why it went up and further if you are paying any attention at all you will understand why it is so low now. Obama is the worst President this country has ever seen and history will bare that out.
 
Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%


Still believe a 50 increase from 100 to 150 is better than a 20% increase from 1000 to 1250? You never have been good with numbers. I will take the growth of 4.4 trillion in GDP over 8 years any day even though a lower percentage than the results of Obama. Interesting the Bush is responsible for the results in 2001 but Obama isn't for 2009. Of course Reagan, Bush, and Obama all inherited recessions because you cannot name the economic poiicies either Bush or Reagan had in place when they took office. Obama had no plan in place either . You simply are a partisan who simply wants to believe that all the compassionate rhetoric will lead to compassionate results but they haven't.
 
Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%


Yeah, just like the election YOU said he would lose. :lamo:lamo:lamo:lamo
 
Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

It would stand to reason, but it's a trend that hasn't manifested itself in the actual data yet. As stated before, the 16-24 bracket accounts for the downward trend over the last decade.

They report on both the LFPR as a whole and the age brackets within: Civilian labor force participation rates by age, sex, race, and ethnicity

Agreed.
 
Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

pbrauer said:
Yeah, just like the election YOU said he would lose. :lamo:lamo:lamo:lamo
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There certainly were more Obamabots than I realized but when Presidents are judged Obamabots don't vote
 
Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%


Maybe Sheik has created a new category of baby boomers including that age group
 
Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%


I know this is above your pay grade, but it is what it is .... there is no other way to compare periods from the 1950's to the 2000's. I know you don't like that because you don't like the numbers, but they are what they are.

I also note you resorted to this weak deflection rather than answer the question.

But that's ok, it was rather expected. Besides, your none answer answered for you -- results didn't matter to you in 2004.

 
Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

The ARRA actually would account for increases in, at minimum, 3 of the components. Direct Government Consumption, Transfer payments that contributed directly to consumption, in addition to tax credits that encouraged private investment. You can probably find some outlays that contributed directly to net exports as well, but the first three are a given.

Agreed, it was indeed a short term stimulative measure.

Well, the dip in last quarters gdp figures were largely due to a decline in exports and government consumption, but I digress.
 
Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

Conservative said:
There certainly were more Obamabots than I realized but when Presidents are judged Obamabots don't vote
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Isn't time you learn to be respectful? I don't have some studid name for Romney voters.
 
Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

The LFPR began decreasing around 2000, but it took a steep decline when the housing bubble burst in the fall of 2008. At the same time, disability claims skyrocketed.

Since those on disability are not in the labor force, it's no shock that the LBPR is declining.
 
Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

Conservative said:
There certainly were more Obamabots than I realized but when Presidents are judged Obamabots don't vote
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What is an "Obamabot?"
 
Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

a351 said:
Agreed. Although keep in mind I was discussing raw employment, which would be more directly affected by a short term stimulative measure than would the participation rate.
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Ok, the workplace contraction to some extent was expected. What is not expcted and what is abnormal is that the retirees are not leaving behind good paying jobs they are vacating. Its combining with an uncertain private sector to create an environment in which companies dont want to hire. A lot of the measures Obama is pursuing are making new hires more costly than things like overtime, part time and temporary workforce to close the gaps rather than taking on another full time employee due to the cost.

I think the two things are combining to create a wierd dynamic we havent seen before in US economics where enormous portions of the workforce are retiring but their jobs dont have the demand required to fill them or the cost is so great that employers are making due. It really is unprecedented but, I would expect eventually we will reach some sort of point where employers have to start filling holes with workers rather than stretching a workforce that is already stretched pretty thin.

Another possible worry: an amnesty deal will create another leap in our workforce and hold down wages to some extent.

ALL of these things are working together in a bad way for the workforce, imo.
 
Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%


I will take the 4.4 TRILLION dollar increase during the 8 years of Bush over the Obama performance any day. Results always matter to me not your distorted posts showing percentage change. You see, we make money and spend money and tax money based upon dollars generated not percentage change. Try spending your percentage change at the grocery store but more importanly try to explain to those 21Plus million unemployed/under employed/discouraged workers and those 500,000 that dropped out of the labor force, or all those on welfare, food stamps, disability that they are better off under Obama.

Not a thing is ever going to change the mind of an ideologue partisan like you who believes the numbers we have today show Obama to be doing a good job. The more people dependent the more votes liberals buy.
 
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