Two Ways the Venezuelan Crisis Might End

[Rogue Valley]

Two Ways the Venezuelan Crisis Might End

2/7/19
Here are a few scenarios to consider:

Maduro resigns or flees. No fool, yet clearly incapable of reversing his country’s political, economic, social, and humanitarian crisis, Maduro may already be planning his resignation and flight. Perhaps Russia and Cuba, who may prefer a more anti-U.S. leader than Guaido seems likely to be, could persuade Maduro to resign and flee to hospitable locations such as Bolivia, Nicaragua, or Cuba, while Moscow and Havana find a suitable anti-American figure to take his place. China has been more reticent as the events in Caracas have unfolded; Beijing would prefer to work with Maduro but would probably be willing to cooperate with Guaido so as not to jeopardize its investments and access to lucrative oil, natural gas, and development projects in the country.

Guaido rallies military to his side. The opposition leader knows that he needs the military to restore public confidence in the government and to loosen economic controls so that vital food, medical, and basic supplies can flow freely into the country and to its people. He has already begun reaching out to the military. He drafted a bill to offer amnesty to soldiers who leave Maduro, a measure that would also offer pardons to civilians, politicians, public officials and military members accused during the governments of Hugo Chávez — who was president from 1999 to 2013 — and Maduro of committing crimes or supporting unconstitutional acts. (Incidentally, Guaido’s outreach has risks: the Venezuelan military is known to be penetrated by Cuban agents who can provide Havana real-time updates of developments in Caracas.) In any case, Guaido will soon test their loyalty: he announced on Feb. 3 that a U.S. humanitarian assistance shipment will bring much-needed medical and nutritional supplies with Colombian and Brazilian support. But those goods and services only flow through ports by the assent of the military.

It was encouraging to see the Venezuelan military attaché to the United States, Col. Jose Luis Silva, publicly endorse and support Guaido on Jan. 27. Silva cited Guaido’s roadmap for a peaceful and systematic transition, restoration of democratic rule, and support for free and transparent elections for the Venezuelan people. On Feb. 2, Gen. Francisco Yanez, who leads strategic planning for the Venezuela Air Force, recognized Guaido as president in a video, in which he declared that 90 percent of the Venezuelan military now supports the opposition leader. Yanez’s defection indicates that dissent is increasing within Venezuela’s senior military high command — and with it, a speedier end to Maduro’s rule.

I'd go with option #1. The Russians would probably prefer that he remain close by (Bolivia) as they (and the Cubans) work clandestinely to undermine whatever government succeeds Maduro.

 

[DaveFagan]

Two Ways the Venezuelan Crisis Might End

I'd go with option #1. The Russians would probably prefer that he remain close by (Bolivia) as they (and the Cubans) work clandestinely to undermine whatever government succeeds Maduro.

I go with Option #3.
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[uptower]

Third possibility is that Maduro rallies the military and crushes the opposition in a bloody crackdown; fourth possibility is the crackdown initially fails and turns into an extended civil war. Both of these are considerably worse than the two in the OP, but I'm feeling pessimistic today.

A coup by Guaido is not ideal. I would prefer to see democracy win out. But if Venezuela is to have a dictator or at least a ruling cabal, maybe Guaido and his people should have a shot, because they could hardly do worse than Maduro...or could they?

 

[Fledermaus]

I go with Option #3.
\/

Putin invades a la Crimea...

 

[Rogue Valley]

Humanitarian Aid Arrives For Venezuela — But Maduro Blocks It

2/8/19
Trucks full of food and medicine have arrived at the Venezuelan border, setting up a showdown between President Nicolás Maduro and U.S.-backed opposition leader Juan Guaidó. The aid convoy arrived at the Colombian border city of Cúcuta, The Associated Press reports, but Maduro and the military have blocked the Tienditas bridge so that the trucks cannot enter Venezuela. "The United States is prepositioning relief items — including food, nutritional supplements, hygiene kits and medical supplies — in Colombia so they are available to reach those most in need in Venezuela as soon as possible," a U.S. official told The AP.

Meanwhile, Colombia's migration office has canceled more than 300 daily entrance passes used by Venezuelan politicians and the families of Maduro supporters. "It doesn't make sense that while [the Venezuelan people] migrate for hunger and need, supporters of the dictatorship enjoy these benefits and enter our country, using this card, to shop, among other things," Christian Krüger Sarmiento, the director general of the migration agency, said in a statement.

As I understand it, humanitarian convoys are waiting in three neighboring countries.

Note: The Maduro blocked Tienditas bridge is shown in the OP.

 

[DaveFagan]

Putin invades a la Crimea...

Why are you in favor of Russia invasions. You must be a Russian toady. A subservise plant. No surprise that.

..-. ..-
\/

 

[DaveFagan]

Humanitarian Aid Arrives For Venezuela — But Maduro Blocks It



As I understand it, humanitarian convoys are waiting in three neighboring countries.

Note: The Maduro blocked Tienditas bridge is shown in the OP.

It would be assinine on Maduro's part to let any of these invading columns into Venezuela. Subversive supply lines to a fraudulent leader who was never a candidate for Venezuelan President. Henry Falan (SP) ran against Maduro and the 60% majority voted for Maduro. The USA is also assisting in the outright theft of Venezuelans monies and gold. First the US starves Venezuelans with sanctions starting August 2017 and after creating the problem, pretends to be doing a humanitarian effort to allay the problem. CIA, IMF, USAID, and all the covert tools in action. Plausible deniability and all that, but only the genuine MORONS will believe that.
\/

 

[Rogue Valley]

Brought to you by RT.com[sup]®[/sup]

 

[Fledermaus]

Why are you in favor of Russia invasions. You must be a Russian toady. A subservise plant. No surprise that.

..-. ..-
\/

Projection. You are the one that has steadfastly spoken in favor of Russian invasion.

But thank you for recognizing the Russians did indeed invade.

 

[Fledermaus]

It would be assinine on Maduro's part to let any of these invading columns into Venezuela. Subversive supply lines to a fraudulent leader who was never a candidate for Venezuelan President. Henry Falan (SP) ran against Maduro and the 60% majority voted for Maduro. The USA is also assisting in the outright theft of Venezuelans monies and gold. First the US starves Venezuelans with sanctions starting August 2017 and after creating the problem, pretends to be doing a humanitarian effort to allay the problem. CIA, IMF, USAID, and all the covert tools in action. Plausible deniability and all that, but only the genuine MORONS will believe that.
\/

DaveFagan definitions:

1. Humanitarian = Evil Hegemonic CIA folks and likely terrorists. (See White Helmets)
2. Humanitarian convoy = Invasion
3. Openly providing aid = Subversive supply lines
4. Constitutional Provisional President = fraudulent leader
5. Elected Dictator = Legitimate leader
6. Money on hold pending legitimate President = Money stolen
7. Sanctions for killing Venezuelans = Killing Venezuelans
8. Any non Conspiracy Theory hack = MORONS

 

[DaveFagan]

See. I was right.

..-. ..-
\/

 

[beerftw]

Humanitarian Aid Arrives For Venezuela — But Maduro Blocks It



As I understand it, humanitarian convoys are waiting in three neighboring countries.

Note: The Maduro blocked Tienditas bridge is shown in the OP.

If you look at wars like in syria where huminitarian convoys are used to arm opposition or heck like in ukraine where russia uses humanitarian aid to smuggle in weapons, you may see why maduro is blocking the aid, humanitarian aid is the simplest and most effective way for one nation to smuggle arms to another, which is likely what he fears is going on.

 

[Rogue Valley]

If you look at wars like in syria where huminitarian convoys are used to arm opposition or heck like in ukraine where russia uses humanitarian aid to smuggle in weapons, you may see why maduro is blocking the aid, humanitarian aid is the simplest and most effective way for one nation to smuggle arms to another, which is likely what he fears is going on.

Unlike with Ukraine (Russia controls 410 km of her border) Maduro still controls Venezuela's borders and can inspect all incoming humanitarian shipments.

Try again.

 

[beerftw]

Unlike with Ukraine (Russia controls 410 km of her border) Maduro still controls Venezuela's borders and can inspect all incoming humanitarian shipments.

Try again.

In africa humanitarian aid shipments widely used by nato us and un were also used in arms smuggling, and it has been called out other places in the world. What better way to smuggle weapons than to impose sanctions, blockade the country, then magically hand off aid to the same people you just caused to starve, and magically some tow missiles and small arms end up in those shipments.

Reality is the govt of venezuala not any country short of one at the authoritarian level of stalin or north korea has the power or complete military control to rip apart every aid shipment.


Answer this why was the us the eu and the western world fully willing to let the venezualan people starve until there was an attempt at a coupe, the fact that those countries would let people starve unless someone they backed politically was trying to gain power tells me and much of the world those shipments were nothing but ill intent from the start and maduro would have to be braindead to think it was just a gesture to save the venezualan people.


Better question would you feel the same if russia blocked off ukraine financially and blocked all exports causing them to starve due to lack of imports they need to farm, then suddenly sent humanitarian aid to the same people they forced to starve.

 

[Fledermaus]

See. I was right.

..-. ..-
\/

About what?

 

[DaveFagan]

About what?

Post # 7

..-. ..- \/

 

[Fledermaus]

Post # 7

..-. ..- \/

Intentional vagueness is a sign of dishonesty.

What about post #7 are you correct about?

 

[iguanaman]

Two Ways the Venezuelan Crisis Might End

I'd go with option #1. The Russians would probably prefer that he remain close by (Bolivia) as they (and the Cubans) work clandestinely to undermine whatever government succeeds Maduro.

The end is 100% up to Putin. We have no influence in Venezuela as long as Trump is in office. I would not doubt that Putin's thugs are rooting out the resistance as we speak but if enough of the people still support Guaido he may still prevail. The military are too afraid of the Russian military to desert Maduro unless Putin allows it.

 

[Evilroddy]

Humanitarian Aid Arrives For Venezuela — But Maduro Blocks It



As I understand it, humanitarian convoys are waiting in three neighboring countries.

Note: The Maduro blocked Tienditas bridge is shown in the OP.

Venezuela has ports. Trucks can deliver only a fraction of the aid which ships can. Venezuela has 31 million people in it. There is no way that trucks from Columbia can deliver enough aid to make any real difference to the vast majority of struggling Venezuelans. The shortages in Venezuela are in part due to the mismanagement of the Maduro Regime but are also the result of years of crippling sanctions and financial restrictions designed to make it difficult for Venezuela to buy the things it needs for its suffering population in the international marketplace. If the US and other like-minded countries were really concerned with averting an humanitarian crisis, then they would send ships packed with aid to Venezuelan ports. But they are not really concerned with the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela, a crisis which their economic and financial warfare is significantly contributing to. If they were concerned then they would end the sanctions and economic warfare in order to allow Venezuela to buy what it needs from abroad. Better still the US should take the seven billion dollars US that it has seized from the Venezuelan state owned oil company and use that to buy humanitarian aid to be delivered to Venezuelan ports. But that will not happen because the humanitarian crisis is viewed as an important tool to dislodge Maduro and the Chavistas from power and therefore anything which increases the humanitarian crisis aids in the project of externally imposed regime change.

So why deliver aid by truck into Venezuela? The answer is pretext. If Venezuela allows the aid to come across the border under international control then the aid distribution will be used to drive a wedge between the population in the area receiving the aid and the government of Venezuela. If the wedge programme doesn't produce the desired results then an attack by pro-Maduro paramilitaries or Columbian guerrillas operating out of Venezuela could be manufactured as a pretext to set up a Columbian military controlled buffer zone inside Venezuela to "protect" aid distribution. If the Venezuelan Government refuses to allow in the aid then a proactive military move to create a buffer zone will be taken under the excuse of providing necessary humanitarian assistance and protecting the receiving population from reprisals from the Maduro Regime.

Such a buffer zone would be an ideal place from which Venezuelan mutineers, Columbian mercenaries, right-wing paramilitaries and US special forces could operate to further bankrupt and destabilizre the Maduro Regime by fostering armed insurrection and civil war. If the Venezuelan armed forces attacked the buffer zone then that would be the casus belli for a wider occupation, a militarily enforced no-fly zone and expanded use of mercenaries and/or Columbian military or paramilitary forces to seize more and more of Venezuela. Eventually this would snowball into a slow-motion full scale invasion of Venezuela.

Likewise if more aid is "needed" then Venezuelan ports will be militarily seized as better distribution centres than the Columbian frontier buffer zones and then these ports will be used as more bases from which to destabilise and cripple the Venezuelan state.

This aid is the cheese in an international mouse-trap designed to bring down the mouse whether or not it moves towards the cheese. Pretext, nothing more, all in aid of deniable regime change in the service of the Monroe Doctrine and neo-liberal carpet-bagging.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

 

[Rogue Valley]

In africa humanitarian aid shipments widely used by nato us and un were also used in arms smuggling, and it has been called out other places in the world. What better way to smuggle weapons than to impose sanctions, blockade the country, then magically hand off aid to the same people you just caused to starve, and magically some tow missiles and small arms end up in those shipments.

Reality is the govt of venezuala not any country short of one at the authoritarian level of stalin or north korea has the power or complete military control to rip apart every aid shipment.


Answer this why was the us the eu and the western world fully willing to let the venezualan people starve until there was an attempt at a coupe, the fact that those countries would let people starve unless someone they backed politically was trying to gain power tells me and much of the world those shipments were nothing but ill intent from the start and maduro would have to be braindead to think it was just a gesture to save the venezualan people.


Better question would you feel the same if russia blocked off ukraine financially and blocked all exports causing them to starve due to lack of imports they need to farm, then suddenly sent humanitarian aid to the same people they forced to starve.

This thread is not about Africa, Russia, or Ukraine. Stop the whataboutisms.

It's about Venezuela in South America. Try again.

 

[beerftw]

This thread is not about Africa, Russia, or Ukraine. Stop the whataboutisms.

It's about Venezuela in South America. Try again.

Well considering aid was used in other identical instances for the same thing originating from nearly every major player from the us to russia to china, I think it is very relevant to the thread.

Fyi kurds are currently blocking aid as well in syria, nearly any govt or region in trouble who spent an hour of research already knows not to trust aid shipments from the same guys trying to kill you.

 

[OldFatGuy]

It would be assinine on Maduro's part to let any of these invading columns into Venezuela. Subversive supply lines to a fraudulent leader who was never a candidate for Venezuelan President. Henry Falan (SP) ran against Maduro and the 60% majority voted for Maduro. The USA is also assisting in the outright theft of Venezuelans monies and gold. First the US starves Venezuelans with sanctions starting August 2017 and after creating the problem, pretends to be doing a humanitarian effort to allay the problem. CIA, IMF, USAID, and all the covert tools in action. Plausible deniability and all that, but only the genuine MORONS will believe that.
\/

Yup, covert tools:

Luxury NYC apartments tied to $2.4B Venezuelan ‘boligarchs’ currency scam

:spin::rofl

 

[Rogue Valley]

Fyi kurds are currently blocking aid as well in syria,

Another of your"whataboutism" thread diversions, a favorite tactic of Russian trolls.

Your Kurd citation?

 

[beerftw]

Another of your"whataboutism" thread diversions, a favorite tactic of Russian trolls.

Your Kurd citation?

As already stated part of this thread covers humanitarian aid, the mere fact you scream whataboutism literally means your argument was already dead in the water and wanted to eliminate anything that can counter the argument.


The mere facts your arguments require no criticism to work tells me they are not arguments at all on an intellectual scale, but rather propoganda that requires people to absorb and not question.

 

[Evilroddy]

Two Ways the Venezuelan Crisis Might End

I'd go with option #1. The Russians would probably prefer that he remain close by (Bolivia) as they (and the Cubans) work clandestinely to undermine whatever government succeeds Maduro.

Rogue Valley:

There are two other options which you have not addressed. The first is the Maduro rallies the Venezuelan majority and puts down the coup attempt (admittedly unlikely given the amount of raw economic, political and military power arrayed against him).

The other is that he steps down or is removed but then the Venezuelans elect another Chavista as president in free and fair elections within 30 consecutive days of the departure of Mr. Maduro. Then that new Chavista president with a clear mandate has all the main actors in the opposition coup arrested, tried and if found guilty punished for sedition, inciting mutiny in the armed forces and treason. This is a more likely outcome given the large number of still committed Chavistas and the Cult of Personality surrounding Hugo Chavez and the Bolivarian Republic's revolution.

So how do you restore democracy without actually restoring democracy, if you know that there is a good chance that you will lose everything in a democratic election? That is the dilemma facing the fractured Venezuelan opposition and the foreign kingmakers like Mike Pence who may find themselves trapped by their own democratic rhetoric. Can you build a civil society which will reject Chavismo in 30 days? I think not.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.