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Trump Takes Lead in RCP Averages

Hawkeye10

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Hawkeye10

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Not at the link cpwill presented. In that link, CNN has Trump up by 3.

Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%
Trump bounces into the lead - CNNPolitics.com

Assuming Johnson and Stein are on ballots the hypothetical 2 way race is useless because it will not happen. A decent journalism outfit would have ignored it.
 

Skeptic Bob

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I feel with the advent of the 24 hr news cycle, the internet, and social media that convention bumps may be a thing of the past. Unless, of course, something seriously unexpected happens at the convention.
 

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I feel with the advent of the 24 hr news cycle, the internet, and social media that convention bumps may be a thing of the past. Unless, of course, something seriously unexpected happens at the convention.

I don't necessarily understand why they still happen but Obamax2, McCain, Romney, Bush, and Kerry did all still receive statistically significant convention bounces in the week during and after their conventions. Although they were smaller than the double digit bounces people had before.
 

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Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%
Trump bounces into the lead - CNNPolitics.com

Assuming Johnson and Stein are on ballots the hypothetical 2 way race is useless because it will not happen. A decent journalism outfit would have ignored it.

I think the best option is to present both as the article did. Although obviously Stein and Johnson will be on the ballot, polls asking questions while listing 3rd party candidates have tended to dramatically overstate their support.
 

Hawkeye10

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I think the best option is to present both as the article did. Although obviously Stein and Johnson will be on the ballot, polls asking questions while listing 3rd party candidates have tended to dramatically overstate their support.

I dont know that you are right...the last Gallup poll 2012 had "other" at 1%, which was right.

Romney 49%, Obama 48% in Gallup's Final Election Survey
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012

Do you have any evidence?
 

reinoe

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I feel with the advent of the 24 hr news cycle, the internet, and social media that convention bumps may be a thing of the past. Unless, of course, something seriously unexpected happens at the convention.
I want Hillary Clinton to bite the head off a bat like Ozzy Ozbourne.
 

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I dont know that you are right...the last Gallup poll 2012 had "other" at 1%, which was right.

Romney 49%, Obama 48% in Gallup's Final Election Survey
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012

Do you have any evidence?

Other is different than listing candidates.

Gary Johnson averaged 3-4% when he was listed as a candidate in 2012. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Three-way_race He got less than 1%.

Bob Barr and Ralph Nader each averaged over 2% when listed as an option in 2008. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Four-way_contest Each got less than .6%.

Robert Sarvis averaged 10% in the polls for the 2013 Virginia Gubernatorial election. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2013 He got 6%.

Sean Haugh aveaged 5-6% in the polls for the 2014 NC Senate election. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina,_2014 He got less than 4%.
 

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The polls don't matter right now. This election will be decided by the debate(s) and Trumps ability to avoid saying stupid stuff. There seems to be a wide majority that doesn't want to see Hillary as president for a variety of reasons. Trump needs to be seen as a viable option in order to win. If he doesn't do that, he cant win.
 

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Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%
Trump bounces into the lead - CNNPolitics.com

Assuming Johnson and Stein are on ballots the hypothetical 2 way race is useless because it will not happen. A decent journalism outfit would have ignored it.

That article states that the traditional method for identifying a convention bounce is a head to head match up.

While I tend to agree with your opinion that head to head is useless, I'd rather they all get on the same sheet of music.
 

reinoe

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The polls don't matter right now. This election will be decided by the debate(s) and Trumps ability to avoid saying stupid stuff. There seems to be a wide majority that doesn't want to see Hillary as president for a variety of reasons. Trump needs to be seen as a viable option in order to win. If he doesn't do that, he cant win.

Agreed. The only person who has been able to hurt Trump is Trump.
 

shades

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What I find interesting is that the LA Times has Trump 4 points up on Hillary. That must worry the Democrats.

I hope it does... I'm not sure what it is going to take to convince everyone that Trump is going to be the next president, short of winning in November the nay sayers, remain in denial.
 

Howler63

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The polls don't matter right now. This election will be decided by the debate(s) and Trumps ability to avoid saying stupid stuff. There seems to be a wide majority that doesn't want to see Hillary as president for a variety of reasons. Trump needs to be seen as a viable option in order to win. If he doesn't do that, he cant win.

Agreed. Nothing matters until the debates. Hillary is likely to get a bounce from her convention just as Trump did. Let's see what happens after a couple of 'head-to-head' encounters.
 

Fletch

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Agreed. The only person who has been able to hurt Trump is Trump.

Imagine how far ahead the guy would be if he had any discipline, maturity or ability to self-edit his twitter account.
 

Hawkeye10

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If the election were held Monday, Donald Trump would likely win.

That's what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected on Monday for his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight.

In his "Now-cast" election model for who would win if ballots were cast Monday, Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the presidency.

Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a 42.5% chance of securing the nation's highest office if voters were to take to the polls Monday.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/nate-silver-donald-trump-gets-135804931.html

This will concern some folks......
 
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