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Trump Surges Nationally in Primary

I'd be shocked if Trump lost New York. It's his home state. But will he get above 50%? Probably, judging by the polls. Still, it's unlikely that it'll offset the other large losses he's gotten in Wisconsin and Ohio.

He's only 70+ delegates behind in his target goals to reach 1,237. Between NY and PA he can pick up that slack and drive Cruz even further behind. Lot of favorable states for Trump coming up. Cruz, not so much. CA will be the determining factor.
 
I strongly agree that neither Trump nor Cruz are real conservatives - it's as if much of the GOP base has forgotten what conservatism really is.

Trump --obviously. He's an authoritarian and/or fascist. But Cruz? In what sense does Cruz fail the test of being a conservative? He's a far-right conservative, he's a very principled conservative, but he appears to be me to be the most conservative politician (in all horrifying senses) that America may ever have had elected to national office.
 
50% statewide, most likely (although the latest poll shows 49%). But that's only 14 delegates. In some of the 27 districts Trump will triumph, in a few lose to Kasich, in most he may or may not reach 50%. That's were the struggle is. (Cruz is not much of a player in NY).

Actually, polling is indicating he may sweep all the NY districts.
 
I strongly agree that neither Trump nor Cruz are real conservatives - it's as if much of the GOP base has forgotten what conservatism really is. But I strongly disagree that we've been running on inertia for 7 years - again, 66 consecutive months of private-sector job growth, by far the longest such streak in American history, is a great accomplishment all by itself, especially since it came on the heels of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. And then there's getting us out of two useless wars, and keeping us out of more wars that the Right wanted us to get involved in. There's the 20M more Americans that have health coverage today thanks to Obamacare (and the growth of the cost is significantly less than before).

I can go on and on...but as time goes on, and as historians really dig into his successes and failures, they will agree that he was indeed one of our best.

And the rest of us (270 - 280 million) who had healthcare already now have ****tier healthcare. Minuscule success, massive fail.
 
Well Beau, I will.

No disrespect intended to you or anyone supporting him. I wanted to point out that the arrogance of some on the left shown by their sarcastic statements of support for Trump, as if he could never win the general election, is ill conceived and politically naïve, at best.
 
And the rest of us (270 - 280 million) who had healthcare already now have ****tier healthcare. Minuscule success, massive fail.

You're making a broad-brush statement that is factually wrong, especially given that your precious Big Health Insurance corporations can no longer deny people due to pre-existing conditions, they must spend at least 80% of their revenue on actual health care, and there's no more cap on what they will pay.
 
Trump --obviously. He's an authoritarian and/or fascist. But Cruz? In what sense does Cruz fail the test of being a conservative? He's a far-right conservative, he's a very principled conservative, but he appears to be me to be the most conservative politician (in all horrifying senses) that America may ever have had elected to national office.

Actually, I think that you might well have a point, particularly with what conservatism has become in the modern day.
 
Trump is the best thing that has happened to the Democratic Party in years.

Oh, be careful what you wish for! High negatives and all, Trump can win in November, if nominated. Populist magic is a real thing.
 
The so-called "normal" process is not normal in CO. In 95 it was changed to a straight primary. Then in 2004 they went back to a weird modified caucus. Then they changed the caucus model again to where this one included no straw polling. It's a stoner's dream.

The caucus/convention system is their normal; i.e., it is both expected and their standard (2004, and tweaked in 2012). If this is not now their normal, what is? Do you even have a point, other than the fact there are some changes you may, or may not, have approved of historically?

The rules were distributed last August, and Trump ignored them. Since then he, and his minions, have pushed the old Democratic "we were cheated" claims. Its shameless and self-serving nonsense.
 
I strongly agree that neither Trump nor Cruz are real conservatives - it's as if much of the GOP base has forgotten what conservatism really is. But I strongly disagree that we've been running on inertia for 7 years - again, 66 consecutive months of private-sector job growth, by far the longest such streak in American history, is a great accomplishment all by itself, especially since it came on the heels of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. And then there's getting us out of two useless wars, and keeping us out of more wars that the Right wanted us to get involved in. There's the 20M more Americans that have health coverage today thanks to Obamacare (and the growth of the cost is significantly less than before).

I can go on and on...but as time goes on, and as historians really dig into his successes and failures, they will agree that he was indeed one of our best.

Your country has stagnated economically and politically because of the man in the Oval Office, period. That type of stagnation will continue regardless of who wins the White House this year. Clinton will be marginalized by a Republican House and most likely a Republican Senate unless she is far better at negotiating advancements than Obama was. If by some miracle Trump wins, he will simply be a clown show bloviating endlessly and nobody in power will pay any attention. It will never be Cruz, even if he wins the nomination.

As for your comments on the US economy, those are numbers that are suggestive of an economy not recovering properly and Obama and issues like the ACA contribute greatly to that stagnation. Had Mitt Romney been elected, those economic numbers would have been significantly better, at least in my view.
 
Actually, I think that you might well have a point, particularly with what conservatism has become in the modern day.

A true conservative does not preach and pander to religious and social intolerance. That is why, in my view, neither is conservative and particularly not Cruz.
 
I think you might have missed this In March, Trump was at 41 percent, but Cruz was nipping at his heels at 38 percent with Ohio Gov. John Kasich dragging the bottom at 17 percent. 14% since march thats what the article is about
I know. I just think it's wrong to say Trump's surging when in reality his support is relatively stagnant.
 
I vote/voted Republican, and I have nothing to be embarrassed about. I voted for Rubio here in NH. I'm enthusiastically behind Kasich now, not caring that it doesn't look good. Not all of us voted for Trump. In fact, most of us did NOT vote for him.

None the less, you should be embarrassed that the party of Reagan is about to nominate a liberal leaning loon who will destroy the last shreds of any meaning to being a Republican. Mind you, until a few years ago I thought of myself as a strong Republican - in my youth I was even a party operative and attended two national conventions. (72 and 76). I am still a "conservo-tarian" but gave up on the party in the last few years. This year, for the first time in decades, I'll be voting libertarian (or not voting at all).

For decades I have defended the blue-collar populists and "Reagan democrats" in the party, convinced that while they were unsophisticated and sometimes wrong-headed, at least they had their heart in the right place. Moreover, on most major issues I have been on their side (especially border enforcement). But after I've seen nearly a year of their stupidity, ignorance, and gaga adoration of fraud and crypto-fascist personae I have NO sympathy remaining for these alienated rubes - they deserve what they get (regardless of outcome).

Granted, Trump might not now be in the lead but for non-Republicans being allowed to vote in many state primaries BUT with a 1/3rd or more pubs "in love" with a bloviating ignoramus, someone who lauds "shallow thinking" and ignorance as a virtue - well, that says enough. The 'white-identity' working class is being wiped out by demographics...and at this point I say good riddance.
 
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Think the shenannigans in the Colorado "no vote" and Cruz running around claiming victory in colorado had anything to do with these new numbers.


Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump has leaped ahead of his nearest challenger by 18 points, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz's numbers have plummeted, according to the latest Fox News poll.


Trump led Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by only three points one month ago in the same poll.
Here are the current standings:



In March, Trump was at 41 percent, but Cruz was nipping at his heels at 38 percent with Ohio Gov. John Kasich dragging the bottom at 17 percent.


The poll was a survey of 419 GOP primary voters April 11 to 13 and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.5 percent.

Fox Poll: Trump Has 18-Point Lead Nationally, Cruz Plunges

Well, I'm really glad to hear it and I hope you Republican voters come out and give Trump the delegates he needs to have an uncontested convention.

Trump has more Delegates than Cruz and Kasich put together 744 to 689 so he could easily get to 1237.
 
I know. I just think it's wrong to say Trump's surging when in reality his support is relatively stagnant.

I dont think its stagnant i believe its building
 
Well, I'm really glad to hear it and I hope you Republican voters come out and give Trump the delegates he needs to have an uncontested convention.

Trump has more Delegates than Cruz and Kasich put together 744 to 689 so he could easily get to 1237.

Im not a republican, im an independent and I call it like I see it and I support issues not by party but by what I believe is right.
 
None the less, you should be embarrassed that the party of Reagan is about to nominate a liberal leaning loon who will destroy the last shreds of any meaning to being a Republican. Mind you, until a few years ago I thought of myself as a strong Republican - in my youth I was even a party operative and attended two national conventions. (72 and 76). I am still a "conservo-tarian" but gave up on the party in the last few years. This year, for the first time in decades, I'll be voting libertarian (or not voting at all).

For decades I have defended the blue-collar populists and "Reagan democrats" in the party, convinced that while they were unsophisticated and sometimes wrong-headed, at least they had their heart in the right place. Moreover, on most major issues I have been on their side (especially border enforcement). But after I've seen nearly a year of their stupidity, ignorance, and gaga adoration of fraud and crypto-fascist personae I have NO sympathy remaining for these alienated rubes - they deserve what they get (regardless of outcome).

Granted, Trump might not now be in the lead but for non-Republicans being allowed to vote in many state primaries BUT with a 1/3rd or more pubs "in love" with a bloviating ignoramus, someone who lauds "shallow thinking" and ignorance as a virtue - well, that says enough. The 'white-identity' working class is being wiped out by demographics...and at this point I say good riddance.
The last shreds of what it means to be a Republican went away when the Republican Party nominated Mitt Romney.
 
Im not a republican, im an independent and I call it like I see it and I support issues not by party but by what I believe is right.

But if you vote in a Republican Primary then you're a Republican voter.

How do you see what Bush did when he cut revenue, went to war on credit, handed over an economic crisis and then stalled the recovery?

How do you call this Party?

Will the Trumps Reganomics and cancelling Obamaromneycare put us on the road to recovery? And I don't ask this rhetorically.
 
No disrespect intended to you or anyone supporting him. I wanted to point out that the arrogance of some on the left shown by their sarcastic statements of support for Trump, as if he could never win the general election, is ill conceived and politically naïve, at best.

All along I've been willing to allow them to continue on that train of thought. :mrgreen:
 
Very good, and actually, that's the point that Chomsky was making. If you are powerful, letting people decide is intolerable, so you have to take Democracy and Freedom and subvert them into a giant misinformation campaign, limit the allowed thought (i.e. willfully ignore possibilities and distract people with a narrow range of options), distort the truth, etc.

It's actually kind of funny, but when democratic socialist George Orwell wrote 1984 as a commentary on how Communism was the worst of all systems (and it is), I don't think he realized how necessary these Orwellian concepts of doublethink, thought policing, newspeak, the memory hole, etc, also bare out in liberal democratic capitalism. It's truly amazing how these authoritarian ideologies come about and play a huge role in our so-called democratic process. Democracy, in American right now, is largely an elaborate ruse to make people feel connected to US government, but with elections like 2016, the curtain gets lifted and things tend to change slightly after that. So we'll see. I'm pretty disgusted with the Democratic and Republican parties and corporate media right now. They're pretty despicable institutions all around.

George Orwell would have been the last to believe that democracy, rule of law or freedom were easily achieved or maintained. Of course one must work for the good things in life. Every morning you get up you fight to maintain them. They are instruments the citizenry has installed and kept up to protect itself. The literature explains the forces involved very well and what methods may be used to protect minorities against misuse of power. Calculus of Consent is very good at structuring the math behind this. One of the keys is to have many powerful groups that compete and are forced to play by rules they guard against the others.
An other thing you describe correctly is that the nervousness and disenchantment is rather great right now. This is a known recurring phenomenon and should not surprise anyone nor discourage us. A recent study shows a strong relationship between economic crisis and unrest in populations in the following. The study is directed at Europe, but seems to support the theory and would appear close to the present US experience.
 
You're making a broad-brush statement that is factually wrong, especially given that your precious Big Health Insurance corporations can no longer deny people due to pre-existing conditions, they must spend at least 80% of their revenue on actual health care, and there's no more cap on what they will pay.

No, it's not. And those of us covered before Obamacare, the vast majority of the people, know first hand, in reality, the **** sandwich we've been handed. You can play with fairy tale numbers all you want. Interpret the stats how you wish to suit your fancy. But the reality that people experience in their everyday lives remains unaffected by your desire to call this good.

Btw, those two good things about the change could have easily been done with a two page bill that everyone could read and understand. That would have been a great legacy builder.
 
Your country has stagnated economically and politically because of the man in the Oval Office, period. That type of stagnation will continue regardless of who wins the White House this year. Clinton will be marginalized by a Republican House and most likely a Republican Senate unless she is far better at negotiating advancements than Obama was. If by some miracle Trump wins, he will simply be a clown show bloviating endlessly and nobody in power will pay any attention. It will never be Cruz, even if he wins the nomination.

As for your comments on the US economy, those are numbers that are suggestive of an economy not recovering properly and Obama and issues like the ACA contribute greatly to that stagnation. Had Mitt Romney been elected, those economic numbers would have been significantly better, at least in my view.

Really? Gee, that's funny, especially since our recovery was faster than most of the rest of the first-world nations, and our economy's certainly more stable than either Russia's or China's.

And your claim is that the numbers I presented are "suggestive of an economy not recovering properly"???? 5.5 years of consecutive private-sector job growth (by far the LONGEST such streak in ALL American history), and the Dow being 2.5 times what it was at its nadir two months after he first took office???? Good grief! One has to wonder what fantasyland we'd have to be in before you'd call it a proper recovery!

Frankly, the news magazine The Week says it better than I could:

Think about it: Month after month, the economy is generating about a quarter million net new jobs. The unemployment rate is close to 5 percent. Corporate profit margins are at record highs, with stock values not far behind. And Silicon Valley is on fire. A new TechCrunch analysis finds that the number of unicorns — technology startups valued at over $1 billion — has more than doubled since 2013. Europe would love to have a "stagnant" economy like America's.

Oh, and one more thing - if Trump's the GOP nominee, we get back the Senate, too.
 
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