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Trump Surges Nationally in Primary

lpast

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Think the shenannigans in the Colorado "no vote" and Cruz running around claiming victory in colorado had anything to do with these new numbers.


Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump has leaped ahead of his nearest challenger by 18 points, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz's numbers have plummeted, according to the latest Fox News poll.


Trump led Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by only three points one month ago in the same poll.
Here are the current standings:



In March, Trump was at 41 percent, but Cruz was nipping at his heels at 38 percent with Ohio Gov. John Kasich dragging the bottom at 17 percent.


The poll was a survey of 419 GOP primary voters April 11 to 13 and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.5 percent.

Fox Poll: Trump Has 18-Point Lead Nationally, Cruz Plunges
 

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Trump has increased his number from 42% to 43% from the 4/8 - 4/12 to the 4/11 - 4/13 timeframe (a 3 point increase) while Kasich has increased his number from 18% to 25% during the same time frame (a 7 point increase) as Cruz has dropped from 29% to 27% (a 2 point drop). A 3 point increase is nowhere near what could be called a "surge" given that Kasich has increased his positive number by 7 points in the same surveys - so, if anyone is surging, it's Kasich.

The story here should be that Cruz is dropping, Kasich is surging, and that the percentage of those polled actually choosing a candidate has risen from 89% to 97%.

Just my opinion.
 

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Think the shenannigans in the Colorado "no vote" and Cruz running around claiming victory in colorado had anything to do with these new numbers.


Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump has leaped ahead of his nearest challenger by 18 points, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz's numbers have plummeted, according to the latest Fox News poll.


Trump led Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by only three points one month ago in the same poll.
Here are the current standings:



In March, Trump was at 41 percent, but Cruz was nipping at his heels at 38 percent with Ohio Gov. John Kasich dragging the bottom at 17 percent.


The poll was a survey of 419 GOP primary voters April 11 to 13 and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.5 percent.

Fox Poll: Trump Has 18-Point Lead Nationally, Cruz Plunges

Surging? He only went up 4% in one poll. Well within the margin of error.
 

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The story, in my view, is that Trump can't get to 50% and no other Republican can, and usually at this late date in the process one candidate is polling above 50%.

That tells me that Republicans and conservatives can't stand the choices they're left with and that isn't good news for Republicans up and down the ticket in November.

The insurgency will kill the Republican's chances at the White House. It took Republicans three elections to figure out how to win back the Senate and how to ignore the Tea Party idiocy that brought them unelectable candidates. How long will this idiocy take hold?
 

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It doesn't really matter much, there's only 29% of delegates left on the board, and right now it is massively improbable that Trump that safely secures a >50% victory among delegates. If he doesn't, then it's all for naught because he definitely doesn't have the clout within the Republican party to survive a brokered convention. Let's keep it real, John Kasich is going to be the presidential nominee, and he'll probably pick Cruz as his running mate to secure the "legitimacy" of his presidential (since he, Cruz, and Rubio combined have more delegates than Trump, and since Cruz is a power hungry baboon, he'll accept that offer to run for president in 2020 if they fail, and 2024 if they get elected in 2016, but then the Establishment couldn't force him out like they're trying to do now, and the Establishment has to make this deal or else they'll lose the party). But it's entirely obvious that the RNC is headed in this direction, because it's the logical one to take. And with Kasich being from Ohio (and Hillary bungling the youth vote), they stand much fairer chance at taking the White House. The only wrinkle will be what's going on in the third party candidates, because Sanders supporters and Trump supporters are going to either sit out the 2016 election or form a new party to appeal to Independents.

Ironically, despite doing the best in the Republican field, I would state with a lot of confidence that Trump has a worse chance than Sanders at being a presidential nominee, unless either of them decide to go third party. But Sanders is unlikely to be the Democratic nominee, and Trump (whether his supporters want to hear this or not) stands even less of a chance of being the Republican nominee.
 
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lpast

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Surging? He only went up 4% in one poll. Well within the margin of error.


I think you might have missed this

In March, Trump was at 41 percent, but Cruz was nipping at his heels at 38 percent with Ohio Gov. John Kasich dragging the bottom at 17 percent.

14% since march thats what the article is about
 

Glen Contrarian

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The story, in my view, is that Trump can't get to 50% and no other Republican can, and usually at this late date in the process one candidate is polling above 50%.

That tells me that Republicans and conservatives can't stand the choices they're left with and that isn't good news for Republicans up and down the ticket in November.

The insurgency will kill the Republican's chances at the White House. It took Republicans three elections to figure out how to win back the Senate and how to ignore the Tea Party idiocy that brought them unelectable candidates. How long will this idiocy take hold?

Go Trump Go!!!!

To answer your last question, though, it's going to continue at least until the GOP suffers a huge loss at the polls. But until then, all the idiocy you see is directly related to the "I want my country back!" signs we saw at Tea Party rallies. Why? It's the same story with any nation undergoing large-scale demographic change - the dominant demographic, seeing the "lesser" demographics gaining in power and influence, circles the wagons to protect their power base. In this case, however, it's mixed in with right-wing politics and religion, and as a result, it's turned into a huge freaking game of "I'm more conservative than the next guy!"
 

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It doesn't really matter much, there's only 29% of delegates left on the board, and right now it is massively improbable that Trump that safely secures a >50% victory among delegates. If he doesn't, then it's all for naught because he definitely doesn't have the clout within the Republican party to survive a brokered convention. Let's keep it real, John Kasich is going to be the presidential nominee, and he'll probably pick Cruz as his running mate to secure the "legitimacy" of his presidential (since he, Cruz, and Rubio combined have more delegates than Trump, and since Cruz is a power hungry baboon, he'll accept that offer to run for president in 2020 if they fail, and 2024 if they get elected in 2016, but then the Establishment couldn't force him out like they're trying to do now, and the Establishment has to make this deal or else they'll lose the party). But it's entirely obvious that the RNC is headed in this direction, because it's the logical one to take. And with Kasich being from Ohio (and Hillary bungling the youth vote), they stand much fairer chance at taking the White House. The only wrinkle will be what's going on in the third party candidates, because Sanders supporters and Trump supporters are going to either sit out the 2016 election or form a new party to appeal to Independents.

Ironically, despite doing the best in the Republican field, I would state with a lot of confidence that Trump has a worse chance than Sanders at being a presidential nominee, unless either of them decide to go third party. But Sanders is unlikely to be the Democratic nominee, and Trump (whether his supporters want to hear this or not) stands even less of a chance of being the Republican nominee.

PS: Freedom and Democracy might be considered to be less values to be preserved or threats to be avoided than as societal instruments one uses badly at one's peril.
 

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I highly doubt Kasich will get anywhere with the delegates on a second or third ballot. If he does, he'll a no chance of taking the general election. A sizeable majority of both Cruz and Trump's people will see this as a stolen primary and will take their toys and go home.
 

maxparrish

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Think the shenannigans in the Colorado "no vote" and Cruz running around claiming victory in colorado had anything to do with these new numbers...
I think that mud-gunning lies about the the normal Colorado process for picking delegates has had an effect. Even more than Joe Biden, Trump has had a pass (from the Hoi Poli) on "too stupid" comments and smears throughout this election. Perhaps having 5 times more free press coverage than any other challenger had something to do with it.

Sadly, it looks as if nearly half the GOP (combined with primary cross-overs) are folks whose complete ignorance and adoration of authoritarian personae's has turned them into glassy eyed true believers.

If I were (still) a Republican, I'd be embarrassed.
 

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Go Trump Go!!!!

To answer your last question, though, it's going to continue at least until the GOP suffers a huge loss at the polls. But until then, all the idiocy you see is directly related to the "I want my country back!" signs we saw at Tea Party rallies. Why? It's the same story with any nation undergoing large-scale demographic change - the dominant demographic, seeing the "lesser" demographics gaining in power and influence, circles the wagons to protect their power base. In this case, however, it's mixed in with right-wing politics and religion, and as a result, it's turned into a huge freaking game of "I'm more conservative than the next guy!"

I appreciate that, but Trump has zero to do with conservatism. He's a liberal Democrat parading as a conservative and the celebrity loving crowd is too dumb to figure it out.

Likewise, Cruz isn't a real conservative, he's just an egotistical contrarian, not to play on your user ID here. He'll be no better than Obama when it comes to getting things done and moving the country forward. You've had 7 plus years of inertia in America and you're in line for at least 4 more years, considering the options. Americans deserve better, but we out here on the fringes who are also impacted by what you do and don't do also deserve better.
 

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Go Trump Go!!!!

To answer your last question, though, it's going to continue at least until the GOP suffers a huge loss at the polls. But until then, all the idiocy you see is directly related to the "I want my country back!" signs we saw at Tea Party rallies. Why? It's the same story with any nation undergoing large-scale demographic change - the dominant demographic, seeing the "lesser" demographics gaining in power and influence, circles the wagons to protect their power base. In this case, however, it's mixed in with right-wing politics and religion, and as a result, it's turned into a huge freaking game of "I'm more conservative than the next guy!"

I hope, that if Trump is able to get enough support from union voters (which appears to be occurring) and beats the Democrat in November that you will be able to live with yourself for shouting "Go, Trump, Go."
 

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PS: Freedom and Democracy might be considered to be less values to be preserved or threats to be avoided than as societal instruments one uses badly at one's peril.

Very good, and actually, that's the point that Chomsky was making. If you are powerful, letting people decide is intolerable, so you have to take Democracy and Freedom and subvert them into a giant misinformation campaign, limit the allowed thought (i.e. willfully ignore possibilities and distract people with a narrow range of options), distort the truth, etc.

It's actually kind of funny, but when democratic socialist George Orwell wrote 1984 as a commentary on how Communism was the worst of all systems (and it is), I don't think he realized how necessary these Orwellian concepts of doublethink, thought policing, newspeak, the memory hole, etc, also bare out in liberal democratic capitalism. It's truly amazing how these authoritarian ideologies come about and play a huge role in our so-called democratic process. Democracy, in American right now, is largely an elaborate ruse to make people feel connected to US government, but with elections like 2016, the curtain gets lifted and things tend to change slightly after that. So we'll see. I'm pretty disgusted with the Democratic and Republican parties and corporate media right now. They're pretty despicable institutions all around.
 

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One state at a time, one state at a time. The national polls are meaningless at this point. The (difficult) task at hand right now, for example, is to sink Trump below 50% in New York, statewide (14 delegates) and district-by-district (81 delegates). If the "winner" is below 50%, it's not winner-take-all but 2:1 between #1 and #2 (assuming number 2 has at least 20%). That's how it will be for the rest of the campaign - fighting for every delegate.
 

lpast

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The most common sense reason Ive read as to why Trump is so popular is that voters had given up on a candidate that would be on their side, Trump somehow made them believe he is on their side.

Republican Rhetoric for the last 7 yrs has come back to bite them right on the arse. Paul Ryans budget starving social security and medicare. Constant rhetoric we cant afford anything because were so in debt, then every vote for anything for the rich and corporations was a yes.

To make it short they voted against the working class if not always most of the time. They thought no one noticed.

Scott Walkers attack on unions and workers and chris christies was VERY much noticed across the country and both got spanked in the primary by their own Republicans.

The demcrats for the last 7 yrs didnt fight for the middleclass working class either they were preoccupied with special interests.
 

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I think that mud-gunning lies about the the normal Colorado process for picking delegates has had an effect. Even more than Joe Biden, Trump has had a pass (from the Hoi Poli) on "too stupid" comments and smears throughout this election. Perhaps having 5 times more free press coverage than any other challenger had something to do with it.

Sadly, it looks as if nearly half the GOP (combined with primary cross-overs) are folks whose complete ignorance and adoration of authoritarian personae's has turned them into glassy eyed true believers.

If I were (still) a Republican, I'd be embarrassed.

The so-called "normal" process is not normal in CO. In 95 it was changed to a straight primary. Then in 2004 they went back to a weird modified caucus. Then they changed the caucus model again to where this one included no straw polling. It's a stoner's dream.
 

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I hope, that if Trump is able to get enough support from union voters (which appears to be occurring) and beats the Democrat in November that you will be able to live with yourself for shouting "Go, Trump, Go."

Well Beau, I will.
 

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One state at a time, one state at a time. The national polls are meaningless at this point. The (difficult) task at hand right now, for example, is to sink Trump below 50% in New York, statewide (14 delegates) and district-by-district (81 delegates). If the "winner" is below 50%, it's not winner-take-all but 2:1 between #1 and #2 (assuming number 2 has at least 20%). That's how it will be for the rest of the campaign - fighting for every delegate.

The trick is to keep Cruz below 20%. Trump has the 50% he needs in NY and more.
 

tres borrachos

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I think that mud-gunning lies about the the normal Colorado process for picking delegates has had an effect. Even more than Joe Biden, Trump has had a pass (from the Hoi Poli) on "too stupid" comments and smears throughout this election. Perhaps having 5 times more free press coverage than any other challenger had something to do with it.

Sadly, it looks as if nearly half the GOP (combined with primary cross-overs) are folks whose complete ignorance and adoration of authoritarian personae's has turned them into glassy eyed true believers.

If I were (still) a Republican, I'd be embarrassed.

I vote/voted Republican, and I have nothing to be embarrassed about. I voted for Rubio here in NH. I'm enthusiastically behind Kasich now, not caring that it doesn't look good. Not all of us voted for Trump. In fact, most of us did NOT vote for him.
 

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The trick is to keep Cruz below 20%. Trump has the 50% he needs in NY and more.

50% statewide, most likely (although the latest poll shows 49%). But that's only 14 delegates. In some of the 27 districts Trump will triumph, in a few lose to Kasich, in most he may or may not reach 50%. That's were the struggle is. (Cruz is not much of a player in NY).
 

tres borrachos

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The most common sense reason Ive read as to why Trump is so popular is that voters had given up on a candidate that would be on their side, Trump somehow made them believe he is on their side.

Republican Rhetoric for the last 7 yrs has come back to bite them right on the arse. Paul Ryans budget starving social security and medicare. Constant rhetoric we cant afford anything because were so in debt, then every vote for anything for the rich and corporations was a yes.

To make it short they voted against the working class if not always most of the time. They thought no one noticed.

Scott Walkers attack on unions and workers and chris christies was VERY much noticed across the country and both got spanked in the primary by their own Republicans.

The demcrats for the last 7 yrs didnt fight for the middleclass working class either they were preoccupied with special interests.

Walker wasn't in any primary. He dropped before Iowa.
 

Dittohead not!

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Trump is popular, at least among some people who think they like the Republican Party. However:

Trump-and-Elephant-630-x-450.jpg


812wsx.jpg


trump-gop-flag-mountain.png


Trump is the best thing that has happened to the Democratic Party in years.
 

Glen Contrarian

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I appreciate that, but Trump has zero to do with conservatism. He's a liberal Democrat parading as a conservative and the celebrity loving crowd is too dumb to figure it out.

Likewise, Cruz isn't a real conservative, he's just an egotistical contrarian, not to play on your user ID here. He'll be no better than Obama when it comes to getting things done and moving the country forward. You've had 7 plus years of inertia in America and you're in line for at least 4 more years, considering the options. Americans deserve better, but we out here on the fringes who are also impacted by what you do and don't do also deserve better.

I strongly agree that neither Trump nor Cruz are real conservatives - it's as if much of the GOP base has forgotten what conservatism really is. But I strongly disagree that we've been running on inertia for 7 years - again, 66 consecutive months of private-sector job growth, by far the longest such streak in American history, is a great accomplishment all by itself, especially since it came on the heels of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. And then there's getting us out of two useless wars, and keeping us out of more wars that the Right wanted us to get involved in. There's the 20M more Americans that have health coverage today thanks to Obamacare (and the growth of the cost is significantly less than before).

I can go on and on...but as time goes on, and as historians really dig into his successes and failures, they will agree that he was indeed one of our best.
 

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One state at a time, one state at a time. The national polls are meaningless at this point. The (difficult) task at hand right now, for example, is to sink Trump below 50% in New York, statewide (14 delegates) and district-by-district (81 delegates). If the "winner" is below 50%, it's not winner-take-all but 2:1 between #1 and #2 (assuming number 2 has at least 20%). That's how it will be for the rest of the campaign - fighting for every delegate.

I'd be shocked if Trump lost New York. It's his home state. But will he get above 50%? Probably, judging by the polls. Still, it's unlikely that it'll offset the other large losses he's gotten in Wisconsin and Ohio.
 
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