Trump is manipulating job numbers again

[99percenter]

The government is making a big change in how it reports jobless claims. Here’s why - MarketWatch

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said last week it will change its method for adjusting initial jobless claims to account for seasonal swings in employment. That’s a big deal.

As a result, new claims could show a large decline of potentially 200,000 or more in the week ended Aug. 29. The BLS will report the numbers at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

Why the change?

The agency’s traditional season-adjustment process worked fine when the U.S. experienced regular ups and downs in employment around the holidays or the end of the school year. Tens of thousands of people, for example, are hired before Christmas and left go after the New Year. The claims numbers are adjusted to smooth out these normal swings in employment.


Yet the old approach to seasonal adjustments has been thrown out of whack by a once-in-a-century pandemic. The seasonally adjusted numbers have constantly exceeded the actual number of people applying for benefits, with the gap becoming especially large in the past month.

Consider the most recent week.

The government said new jobless claims in the week ended Aug. 22 rose by 1 million after seasonal adjustments. Yet actual or unadjusted claims increased by a smaller 821,591.

That’s an 18% difference.

If it’s not confusing enough, the government won’t revise prior figures for jobless claims under the old method of seasonal adjustments.

Trump is going to great lengths to lie and cheat to steal the election.

 

[Rogue Valley]

The government is making a big change in how it reports jobless claims. Here’s why - MarketWatch

Trump is going to great lengths to lie and cheat to steal the election.

Similar to how the COVID data is now going first to the White House and then to the CDC.

That's opposite of how data flow should occur.

 

[Captain Adverse]

The government is making a big change in how it reports jobless claims. Here’s why - MarketWatch




Trump is going to great lengths to lie and cheat to steal the election.

What are you talking about?

Seasonal adjustments always occur. There are such things as SEASONAL jobs. Like summer jobs kids and university students do, while teachers and college instructors are on vacation.

There are seasonal farming jobs, seasonal construction jobs, seasonal sales jobs.

Many of these have been affected by Covid-19 shutdowns and State regulations/restrictions.

Many REGULAR jobs have been affected by Covid-19 restrictions.

Add to that the fact that the Unemployment "stimulus" payments, where people make more on unemployment than they would at the job they lost, encourages unemployment?

As a result, employment/unemployment figures are fluctuating.

IMO your side is trying to make the worst case scenario ignoring all those factors that are really not within the Administration's control.

 

[99percenter]

What are you talking about?

Seasonal adjustments always occur. There are such things as SEASONAL jobs. Like summer jobs kids and university students do, while teachers and college instructors are on vacation.

There are seasonal farming jobs, seasonal construction jobs, seasonal sales jobs.

Many of these have been affected by Covid-19 shutdowns and State regulations/restrictions.

Many REGULAR jobs have been affected by Covid-19 restrictions.

As a result, employment/unemployment figures are fluctuating.

IMO your side is trying to make the worst case scenario ignoring all those factors that are really not within the Administration's control.

I don't have a side. I just want the true numbers out without trump's manipulation.

 

[Captain Adverse]

I don't have a side. I just want the true numbers out without trump's manipulation.

Well, then do your own "numbers" and then you can "trust" them.

But IMO there are a lot of "sides" these days who like to "manipulate" facts in order to sell something. Trump is going to present the best face on an issue. Opponents are going to present the worst face on the same issue.

In this case IMO more "Trump BAD!" narrative to feed the needy anti-Administration frenzy.

I choose to see his efforts and his successes/failures differently. :coffeepap:

 

[pinqy]

The government is making a big change in how it reports jobless claims. Here’s why - MarketWatch

One huge problem with that story: The Bureau of Labor Statistics has ****-all to do with unemployment insurance claims. They don’t collect them, report them, or use them to calculate the Unemployment level or rate (except as part of adjustments for local area unemployment statistics)

The Employment and Training Administration of the Dept of Labor deals with all things unemployment insurance.

 

[PNW Guy]

Well, then do your own "numbers" and then you can "trust" them.

But IMO there are a lot of "sides" these days who like to "manipulate" facts in order to sell something. Trump is going to present the best face on an issue. Opponents are going to present the worst face on the same issue.

In this case IMO more "Trump BAD!" narrative to feed the needy anti-Administration frenzy.

I choose to see his efforts and his successes/failures differently. :coffeepap:

Yeah you see successes that aren't and dismiss/ignore any failings. It's why you've earned this:

Amd why no one but your fellow cultists pays any attention to you or gives you any credibility that you're clearly NOT due. :lamo

 

[roberthughey]

If this true, it makes sense the weekly number should reflect the actual number of people applying for benefits.

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"The seasonally adjusted numbers have constantly exceeded the actual number of people applying for benefits, with the gap becoming especially large in the past month."

 

[SenorXm/Sirius]

LOL.. And for 8 years Fox and their brainwashed audience,without any evidence, accused Obama's Admin of fudging the economic/unemployment numbers to make them look better than they really were.

And now Trump IS actually fudging the numbers.. LOL.. Where is the outrage from Fox, and the other lying Con talking heads?

 

[pinqy]

LOL.. And for 8 years Fox and their brainwashed audience,without any evidence, accused Obama's Admin of fudging the economic/unemployment numbers to make them look better than they really were.

And now Trump IS actually fudging the numbers.. LOL.. Where is the outrage from Fox, and the other lying Con talking heads?

Trump has nothing to do with it. I am sure he wouldn’t understand the concepts or the math involved, and I doubt he even knew about this change.

And the change in methodology can just as easily make the numbers look worse than without the change.

 

[SenorXm/Sirius]

Trump has nothing to do with it. I am sure he wouldn’t understand the concepts or the math involved, and I doubt he even knew about this change.

And the change in methodology can just as easily make the numbers look worse than without the change.

He don't have to understand, all he has to do is have 1 of his yes-men in place... Example: Look at Barr, Trump understands nothing about the law, the Constitution, or any legalities. But Barr blocks and obstructs for Trump and his crime family.

 

[pinqy]

He don't have to understand, all he has to do is have 1 of his yes-men in place... Example: Look at Barr, Trump understands nothing about the law, the Constitution, or any legalities. But Barr blocks and obstructs for Trump and his crime family.

A minor change to a minor statistic probably wouldn't even have to go through the Secretary of Labor, let alone the White House. And the change makes methodological sense and would not necessarily benefit Trump. The idea that this change is "manipulating" the data in favor of Trump is ridiculous ; which is why I'm ridiculing it.