12/18/18
With his threat to shut down the federal government unless he receives funding for his border wall, President Donald Trump is employing a tactic that is unpopular to advance a goal that may be even more unpopular. Trump's threats -- and the muted public resistance to them from GOP congressional leaders -- offer the latest evidence that the party's drubbing in the midterm election has not changed the White House's fundamental strategic calculus. Though the proposed border wall faces widespread opposition among all the groups in the electorate that powered the big Democratic gains in the House last month, and government shutdowns historically have alienated a broad range of the public, both the end and the means remain popular among the President's core supporters. Trump may yet back down before triggering a government shutdown just in time for Christmas. But his determination to push this confrontation to the brink -- for a cause, building the wall, with such a narrow base of support -- underscores how committed he remains to energizing his base, even at the price of alienating the broader electorate. Since Trump's snippy public meeting last week with likely incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer, most attention has focused on the President's willingness to accept responsibility for a possible government shutdown. That declaration flabbergasted many congressional Republicans, since previous shutdowns have always been unpopular and each party has maneuvered to pin blame on the other.
Uneasy GOP officeholders have legitimate reason for concern: In a National Public Radio/Marist survey last week, just 36% of Americans said Trump should shut down the government if Congress doesn't fund his wall. A 57% majority said he should compromise to avoid a shutdown. Trump's call for the wall has never won broad public support. For years, polls have consistently found that while Americans support a pathway to legal status or citizenship for undocumented immigrants without criminal records, they also place a high priority on ensuring border security. Yet even within that broad consensus, Trump's specific solution -- the border wall -- has always faced lopsided opposition. In 10 Quinnipiac University national polls from April 2017 through August 2018, no more than 40% of Americans ever expressed support for the wall. Consistently, the share of Americans opposing construction of the wall has been much higher, from 57% to 64%. A CNN Poll conducted by SSRS that was released last week found 57% against a wall, compared with 38% in favor. Opposition to the wall is overwhelming among all the groups that moved decisively away from Trump and the GOP in last month's election. In CNN's poll, Trump's border wall faced opposition from 76% of African-Americans, 66% of Latinos, 66% of adults younger than 35, 57% of independents, 66% of college-educated white voters and 56% of people aged 35 to 49.
