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Trump faces another primary test in Ohio House race

Tender Branson

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Donald Trump has a lot on the line in suburbs and small towns south of Columbus, Ohio.

After the Trump-backed candidate in Texas' 6th Congressional district runoff election lost this week, the pressure is now on the former President to prove his endorsement -- one of his most powerful tools within the Republican Party -- still holds significant sway in GOP primaries.

Trump endorsed coal lobbyist Mike Carey in the special election for Ohio's 15th Congressional District in early June, throwing his weight behind a political novice in a race against a host of other Republicans, including multiple local elected officials. The Republican primary to replace former Rep. Steve Stivers, who left Congress earlier this year to lead the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, is Tuesday.

It's a crowded race, with close to a dozen Republicans still vying for the congressional seat. This has led multiple Republican operatives, both in Ohio and nationally, to speculate that it is eminently possible for Trump's candidate to lose the primary -- and to acknowledge that yet another loss for Trump would dent his standing as a Republican kingmaker. It also could be personally frustrating for Trump, a politician who routinely bragged as President about the strong win percentage of the Republicans he backed in primaries.

"These specials are volatile," said a senior Republican strategist who has worked on House races. "People don't know these guys as well. There are not the massive amounts of attention. ... They need to make sure their message actually breaks through. And that's hard to do."

On the ground, both Republican operatives unaligned with a candidate as well as those working for a campaign acknowledge that while Trump's endorsement is powerful, it is diluted by the size of the field, the fact that candidates have had roughly only three months to campaign and the reality that nearly all candidates in the race are tying themselves to Trump's message.

"Obviously, the Trump endorsement is a big boost for Carey," said a top strategist for Ruth Edmonds, a Black Republican who is running as a candidate in line with Trump. "But it is not as big of a factor, as you are already seeing with what happened in Texas the other day, and there are just so many candidates in this race."

The strategist also noted that most voters just aren't engaged in the election, with the Edmonds campaign expecting roughly 40,000 people to vote in the primary. In the 2020 general election, there were more than 380,000 votes cast in the district's House race.

"We are looking at a race with very, very low turnout," the strategist said. "So, is the Trump endorsement important? Obviously. But it is not the end of the world, especially in a race like this."

Jeff LaRe, a member of the Ohio House of Representatives running in the primary, acknowledged as much in a statement to CNN.

 
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Mycroft

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I don't care all that much about these special elections. The 2022 election will be MUCH more important. That's where the Party primaries will be decided mostly by Party members and the election will be between a Republican and a Democrat.

As we saw in that Texas special election, it appears that Democrats came out and voted for the Republican that Trump didn't endorse. That won't happen next year.
 

TheParser

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As a proud voter for The Donald (twice), I hope that his endorsements fall flat.

It is time for him to concentrate on his businesses.

And on his keeping out of jail, if Dem bigwigs have their way in indicting him for something (even jaywalking).

Republicans have to accept the unbelievable demographic changes in this nation.

They need attractive (in policies and personality and presentation) candidates for the Congress & the Presidency.

If the mail-in ballots in 2022 are cast honestly, the Republicans have a good chance to retake the Congress.

They should emphasize law and order -- but not in a heavy-handed manner.
 

Tender Branson

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Special elections are still kinda interesting, but not so this year. They all happened in ultra-partisan districts, which don't tell us anything. And there are 3 still coming up, but also in heavy D or heavy R districts, where low turnout will mean nothing.

CA Recall and VA Governor in September and November will give us some hints about next year though.
 

Tender Branson

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As a proud voter for The Donald (twice), I hope that his endorsements fall flat.

It is time for him to concentrate on his businesses.

And on his keeping out of jail, if Dem bigwigs have their way in indicting him for something (even jaywalking).

Republicans have to accept the unbelievable demographic changes in this nation.

They need attractive (in policies and personality and presentation) candidates for the Congress & the Presidency.

If the mail-in ballots in 2022 are cast honestly, the Republicans have a good chance to retake the Congress.

They should emphasize law and order -- but not in a heavy-handed manner.

The mail-in ballots are always cast honestly.

There is no mass-faking of mail-ballots, because A) the system is so decentralized, that there cannot be a co-ordinated effort to manipulate them with mostly R-held rural counties sending them out and D-held urban areas and something in between and B) Republicans were always present during the mail-ballot count on election day and the days after and found no evidence of ballots being manipulated.

Voter fraud is very rare and in the dozens of cases each year and involve Democratic and Republican voters alike. Elections shouldn't be held with using computerized machines though like in the US, but fully on paper. I hate computerized elections, because the software can be hacked.

Paper ballots to verify is the best thing to do, together with properly manned election commissions with Ds, Rs and Is present as election commission members to watch over the count.

Also, who wins next year will depend on the mood of the electorate before the election. In the past 40 years or so, the party of the new President has always lost their first mid-term election, so it wouldn't be a surprise if Dems for example lose the House. Maybe keep the Senate, because there are a lot of Republican Senators retiring for next year in competetive states such as PA or NC.
 

bongsaway

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I don't care all that much about these special elections. The 2022 election will be MUCH more important. That's where the Party primaries will be decided mostly by Party members and the election will be between a Republican and a Democrat.

As we saw in that Texas special election, it appears that Democrats came out and voted for the Republican that Trump didn't endorse. That won't happen next year.
You have an inside line on what's going to happen more than a year from now? Are you really eric trump? Next year the dems are going to vote for a trump endorsed candidate? Hmmm, you might be eric trump.
 

Mycroft

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Next year the dems are going to vote for a trump endorsed candidate?
You should probably read what I posted again. This isn't what I said.
 

dcsports

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You have an inside line on what's going to happen more than a year from now? Are you really eric trump? Next year the dems are going to vote for a trump endorsed candidate? Hmmm, you might be eric trump.
lol. They'll more likely vote in the democrat primary.

In a special election, where there's one seat up for grabs, and the district is tilted one way or the other, people will cross party lines to upset the race. In a regular election, with many candidates in play, not so much.
 

bongsaway

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lol. They'll more likely vote in the democrat primary.

In a special election, where there's one seat up for grabs, and the district is tilted one way or the other, people will cross party lines to upset the race. In a regular election, with many candidates in play, not so much.
I get it, tell mycroft.
 
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