Trump could win again (without cheating)
Liberal pundits often say that Donald Trump is on the wrong side of history. From this perspective, he’s a relic and a reactionary, a living reminder of all the skeletons in America’s closet.
A Democratic victory in November thus feels inevitable, especially given Trump’s objectively awful handling of the pandemic.
But history only moves the way it is pushed. And from a
longue durée view, it’s Trump who has the power to do the pushing, thanks not only to his deep pockets and ruthlessness but also to the deep support of two long-privileged groups in American life.
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Most Americans thus need their employers not only for wages or salaries, but also for health insurance. America’s weak safety net makes workers even more fearful of losing their jobs.
Even though they make up a tiny fraction of the population, bosses thus wield enormous clout over everyday life. In America more than in other western countries, their particular interests tend to stand in for “common sense.”
What does this have to do with Trump’s re-election chances?
First, we need to recall that many white Americans have felt on the defensive since the Civil Rights revolution of the 1960s. They don’t see themselves as racist, yet they’re also uncomfortable sharing power and visibility with people of colour.
[. . .]
“Trump’s performance among whites was dominant.” Among white women, he bested Hilary Clinton by nine points; among white men, he prevailed by 31 points.
[. . .]
For all his volatility and incompetence, then, Trump is the default choice — even the safe choice — for a critical mass of white voters and business owners. The deaths of nearly 170,000 Americans to COVID-19 won’t change that, in part because the victims are disproportionately Black, Indigenous, people of colour and poorer workers.
With all this history on his side, Trump will be hard to beat even if he fights fair, which he almost certainly will not do.
The Democrats are in for a desperate fight.
