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Trump-Backed Candidate Wins Ohio Special Election

Nope, bored mostly...

The point was that actual journalists don't call elections, or shouldn't, because it's way the hell outside their area of expertise. That's the job of gear heads with lots of data who sit in back rooms. So, "so-called journalists" would be the ones making calls best left to experts.

Did it never occur to you that the journalists while covering their gatekeeper and looking out for the people duties would employ election geniuses and would have access to the raw data?


Anthony Salvanto, PhD, is CBS News Director of Elections and Surveys. He currently conducts all polling across the nation, states, and congressional races, and heads the Decision Desk that projects outcomes on Election Nights.
Anthony Salvanto | Official Publisher Page | Simon & Schuster
 
Does it really matter if you win by 1 vote or 1 million votes?

He is going to be a Congressman for 3 weeks and we do the same race all over again.

This should be a double digit win for a Republican. But no, Balderson won by the skin of his teeth (and it may still be recounted). There are more than 100 districts in congress rated as more competitive than this. 1 point margin on a race that should have been won by 10 does not bode well for the Cons in November... If this is the 100th most competitive race, then there are 100 races by this measure that could shift from Red to Blue. The Dems need only 23.

Sorry, but by any reasonable analysis, this is big news for the Dems as it does support the notion that a Blue Wave is a comin'

Surf's up!Blue Wave Cometh.jpg
 
Ohio is a heavily gerrymandered state and this district was one of the major ones the republicans set up so that they could never lose it. Heck, they may not lose it this time.

The fact that they won by less than a percentage point is good news for the Democrates, no matter how you cut it. Having the dems win when all of the provisional ballots are counted would be icing on the cake. You had better believe that most provisional ballots are because of the excessive nit picking they do in Franklin county, due to its high Democrat count.
 
He is going to be a Congressman for 3 weeks and we do the same race all over again.

This should be a double digit win for a Republican. But no, Balderson won by the skin of his teeth (and it may still be recounted). There are more than 100 districts in congress rated as more competitive than this. 1 point margin on a race that should have been won by 10 does not bode well for the Cons in November... If this is the 100th most competitive race, then there are 100 races by this measure that could shift from Red to Blue. The Dems need only 23.

Sorry, but by any reasonable analysis, this is big news for the Dems as it does support the notion that a Blue Wave is a comin'

Surf's up!View attachment 67237640

I found it! untitled.jpg
 
Ohio is a heavily gerrymandered state and this district was one of the major ones the republicans set up so that they could never lose it. Heck, they may not lose it this time.

The fact that they won by less than a percentage point is good news for the Democrates[/B], no matter how you cut it. Having the dems win when all of the provisional ballots are counted would be icing on the cake. You had better believe that most provisional ballots are because of the excessive nit picking they do in Franklin county, due to its high Democrat count.


Yeah, losing is great news....
 
Waste of time and money this election since they have to redo it in under 100 days...

Sendt fra min SM-N9005 med Tapatalk
 
Been reading through this thread and there are some who want to make a big deal that Trump won the 12th district by 12 pts. Not sure what that has to do with a special election. But if you want to play that game, the 12th district overwhelmingly went for Obama too. And Bush barely squeaked out a win against Kerry.

Yes it is true that this House seat has gone Republican for years. From 1982 to 1998 it was held by John Kasich. From 2000 to 2017 it was held by Pat Tiberi. He resigned Jan. 2018. It wasn't long after his re-election in 2016 that Tiberi announced he would be resigning.


Both John Kasich and Pat Tiberi are anti-Trump. Leading up to the 2016 election, Sen. Rob Portman joined Gov. John Kasich, and Congressman Pat Tiberi on saying they would not vote for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. Trump didn't even have the support of the head of the Ohio GOP either yet won the state by 8 pts.

It was a crowded primary in District 12 this past May where Balderson won. Long before the primary this seat was seen as a tossup and it would take a "special kind of Republican" to hold onto it.


Also Gov. Kasich didn't endorse Balderson until about a week before the election. He didn't go out there and help campaign for him. But he did have plenty of time to go on national interviews on the Sunday talk shows where he never missed a beat to trash Trump including the weekend before the election after Trump held a rally for Balderson in Lewis Center. John Kasich, a leading voice in the GOP's shrinking anti-Trump wing has done everything he could to weaken support for the president. I am surprised to see Balderson still holding a lead in Kasich's old stomping grounds this morning.
 
Your source says the numbers are unofficial, so I don't know how they can be correct. I suppose if you'd like to assume they are correct, not much changes.

You have a misunderstanding on the word unofficial, it means not certified.

It won't be official (certfied) until all the votes are in and they're not all in what they have so far is what is reported and that count is accurate. No one is making anything up
 
Seems that the Democratic Platform is to run on hatred of Trump vs. proposing any policies to benefit the American people. Noticed that the left never tells us what their proposals are and what the Democratic Congress would do if elected this November. Blue wave?? To do what, return to the Obama malaise? Stagnant economic growth? Part time employment?

New Democratic Campaign Slogan

"I tried to keep the Republicans from allowing you to keep more of what you earn, VOTE FOR ME!"
 
Wow, the left is almost as excited about losing this election as they were about John Ossoff losing.
 
When a district is +11 R and they are too close to call the morning after the election, the loser is the GOP.

And two more reasons
1- in the November election, the turnout will be higher which benefits Dems
2- in the November election, the GOP will probably NOT have a five to one spending advantage because of the other races

Winning is always better than losing. No doubt about it. In this case however, its a matter of the second game of the double header coming up after short respite. And your starting pitcher in the nightcap looks stronger than the other guy.

I like the Dems chances in November in this district.
 
Waste of time and money this election since they have to redo it in under 100 days...

It funneled plenty of donation money into the RNC and DNC.

lol

But I have been rather disgusted by the amount of money spent on campaigning in this country, I always thought we could use it for better things than which douche bag or turd-sandwich gets elected.
 
So we won but we lost?


Fascinating.

Essentially, this was a seat historically held by the GOP and which won with double digit points. The fact that it was so close does demonstrate that even the safest seats the Republicans hold can be contended. If the DNC is smart and plays their cards right, which is not a foregone conclusion either, they could make some big gains come November.
 
Essentially, this was a seat historically held by the GOP and which won with double digit points. The fact that it was so close does demonstrate that even the safest seats the Republicans hold can be contended. If the DNC is smart and plays their cards right, which is not a foregone conclusion either, they could make some big gains come November.

Agreed. "Smart" is going to mean "platform," not just "anti-Trump."
 
Seems that the Democratic Platform is to run on hatred of Trump vs. proposing any policies to benefit the American people. Noticed that the left never tells us what their proposals are and what the Democratic Congress would do if elected this November. Blue wave?? To do what, return to the Obama malaise? Stagnant economic growth? Part time employment?

New Democratic Campaign Slogan

"I tried to keep the Republicans from allowing you to keep more of what you earn, VOTE FOR ME!"

Truth be known Kasich was hoping Balderson would lose so he could claim it was because of Trump. Kasich has a bad case of TDS. But ironically it was in part Kasich's fault that resulted in Trump becoming the Republican nominee. Have you ever seen a primary candidate stay in the primaries like that yahoo did? By April 2016, Kasich had finished third or worse in 26 of the 32 contests but didn't quit till Cruz lost in Wisconsin. And Kasich contributed to that lose. The one thing I am looking forward to in November is Kasich will be gone as governor. Good riddance.

Last poll before the vote Emerson had O'Conner +1.
Just heard from the head of the RNC that the majority of votes not yet counted are Republican votes.
 
Agreed. "Smart" is going to mean "platform," not just "anti-Trump."

True, we'll see if they can manage it. They should give most of the anti-Trump stuff a rest, not attack him on some personal level or talk about how embarrassing he is. But go after policy, they can still talk about that in regards to Trump. His unilateral hand he's been given by Congress to alter international agreements, his trade war and how it's hurting America, and their plans to help prevent this further and implement intelligent policy and program aimed at helping America instead.

If they can be smart about it, they can make some big gains.
 
LMAO, "Blue Wave...."



None of the networks want to declare a winner. They figured it was too close to call for anyone to embarrass themselves; however, the New York Times has 100% reporting in all the counties in district 12 (Franklin, Delaware, Licking, Richland, Muskingun, Morrow, and Marion).

More results are probably going to come in, but I'm calling the final results: Troy Balderson (R-OH) 101,574, Danny O'Connor (D-OH) 99,820, Joe Manchik (G-OH)
That's laughable. This should have been a Republican cakewalk for a Republican gerrymandered district that hadn’t been represented by a Democrat in more than three decades. The Republican incumbent, whose retirement is why the special election was necessary, won in 2016 by more than 35 points. In that same year’s presidential election, Trump won the district by 11. Whoever wins, both will be back in November. Meanwhile, Republicans pulled out all the stops to help Balderson. Trump and Vice President Pence each made trips. And Republican and outside groups pumped 40 million into the race, hugely outspending their Democratic counterparts. They won't be able to repeat that in November.

The fact that the race isn't yet decided, waiting for counting of absentee and provisional ballots, means that there is a BlueNami -- not a Blue Wave coming. If the final vote comes out to 1% in one of the most red district in the country, what does that mean for competitive districts?
 
Truth be known Kasich was hoping Balderson would lose so he could claim it was because of Trump. Kasich has a bad case of TDS. But ironically it was in part Kasich's fault that resulted in Trump becoming the Republican nominee. Have you ever seen a primary candidate stay in the primaries like that yahoo did? By April 2016, Kasich had finished third or worse in 26 of the 32 contests but didn't quit till Cruz lost in Wisconsin. And Kasich contributed to that lose. The one thing I am looking forward to in November is Kasich will be gone as governor. Good riddance.

Last poll before the vote Emerson had O'Conner +1.
Just heard from the head of the RNC that the majority of votes not yet counted are Republican votes.

What truly is the case is that Trump has pissed off the Establishment candidates of both political parties and we are seeing that with Kasich as well as other Republicans. The Silent majority is getting it as there is a disconnect between what the left is saying and what they are seeing in their own bank accounts. People just don't seem to get it, Trump ran on a change platform and is delivering totally destroying the liberal and establishment rhetoric thus giving those who supported change exactly what they voted for.

I am very disappointed in Kasich as well as most of the Republicans in the Congress today which is why I have become very adamant about promoting term limits for Congress just like the states have and we have for the President. Career politicians need to serve and then live under the same laws they pass and stop buying votes by spending taxpayer money
 
That's laughable. This should have been a Republican cakewalk for a Republican gerrymandered district that hadn’t been represented by a Democrat in more than three decades. The Republican incumbent, whose retirement is why the special election was necessary, won in 2016 by more than 35 points. In that same year’s presidential election, Trump won the district by 11. Whoever wins, both will be back in November. Meanwhile, Republicans pulled out all the stops to help Balderson. Trump and Vice President Pence each made trips. And Republican and outside groups pumped 40 million into the race, hugely outspending their Democratic counterparts. They won't be able to repeat that in November.

The fact that the race isn't yest decided, waiting for counting of absentee and provisional ballots, means that there is a BlueNami -- not a Blue Wave coming. If the final vote comes out to 1% in one of the most red districts in the country, what does that mean for competitive districts?

Sorry but the only true robots are leftwing radicals living in the major cities that never vote for a Republican. You live in that little dream world where you are right on every issue and can never admit when wrong. You want a Democratic Congress to do exactly what?? Blue wave, my ass!! The silent majority gets it, when will you
 
Agreed. "Smart" is going to mean "platform," not just "anti-Trump."
Fortunately, the Democrats have a platform, consisting of issues like health care; wages; defending Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid from the GOP promise to cut; protecting the environment and opposition to job-killing tariffs.
 
True, we'll see if they can manage it. They should give most of the anti-Trump stuff a rest, not attack him on some personal level or talk about how embarrassing he is. But go after policy, they can still talk about that in regards to Trump. His unilateral hand he's been given by Congress to alter international agreements, his trade war and how it's hurting America, and their plans to help prevent this further and implement intelligent policy and program aimed at helping America instead.

If they can be smart about it, they can make some big gains.

Focusing on policy would be refreshing all around.
 
Not a good take for any aspiring Republican strategist to have.

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No. it's exactly the perfect take for any Republican Strategist. The November elections are in the bag, and it's gonna be a red wave.
 
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