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Trump approval rate is 48% -- Rasmussen

apdst said:
That isn't all voters. Hell, only 56% of all registered voters even voted in the '16 election. :lamo
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So he doesn't have much of a mandate if he couldn't even get 28% of the vote!
 
Anagram said:
And those two polls were two of the farthest off what they purported to be measuring, which is the national popular vote. If they were somehow trying to measure the electoral vote and called it right, that might be more impressive
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No, they also called the general election for Trump
 
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tres borrachos said:
Couple of problems with your post.

Rasmussen had Clinton (not Trump) winning by 2. They did not have Trump winning. Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 percent.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

Also, you are confusing election polls with job approval polls. They are not the same thing
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Well thanks for proving my general point though, the vast majority of polls had Clinton winning, and we all know how that turned out.

If you havent clued in by now, I'm here to tell you that most of the US government, the mainstream media and also the polling companies are all in the pocket of the Democratic party
 
Desert Storm said:
Well thanks for proving my general point though, the vast majority of polls had Clinton winning, and we all know how that turned out.

If you havent clued in by now, I'm here to tell you that most of the US government, the mainstream media and also the polling companies are all in the pocket of the Democratic party
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Yes, we know how it turned out. They predicted it, with very few exceptions, correctly. You do understand that these election polls were on the popular vote, and not the Electoral College, yes? They predicted she would win the popular vote by 3. She won it by 2.

The polling companies are not in the pockets of the Democratic Party. Polling has been around forever. Election polling is a small part of polling. Social science polling (like job approval polls) are used everywhere, for literally thousands of subjects, from employee satisfaction to customer satisfaction to KPIs and so on.
 
Desert Storm said:
No, they also called the general election for Trump
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I don't think they did. All I see is their national popular vote poll, with Clinton leading by 2%. I would welcome a link to anything calling the general election, although since they didn't do any state level polling, I don't really see how an electoral vote poll would even work.
 
Desert Storm said:
Well thanks for proving my general point though, the vast majority of polls had Clinton winning, and we all know how that turned out.
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It turned out that they came fairly close since those popular vote polls averaged her winning by 3.3% and she won by 2.1%?
 
tres borrachos said:
You do understand that these election polls were on the popular vote, and not the Electoral College, yes?
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Complete nonsense!!

I clearly remember seeing electoral polls in which most polling companies had Hillary winning in Michigan, Ohio and I think also Pennsylvania (although I cant be 100% sure about Penn).

Why would polling companies ONLY do national polls since that means diddly dick squat compared to electoral State polls??
 
Desert Storm said:
Complete nonsense!!

I clearly remember seeing electoral polls in which most polling companies had Hillary winning in Michigan, Ohio and I think also Pennsylvania (although I cant be 100% sure about Penn).

Why would polling companies ONLY do national polls since that means diddly dick squat compared to electoral State polls??
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Please post a link to the Electoral College results polls you claim to have seen.

The polls I posted were the same that have always been used, including by Kellyanne Conway when she was one of the country's best pollsters. They are polling the popular vote. And in 2016, they were almost spot on.

No, it isn't "complete nonsense". It's a fact. If you can show me where in those RCP polls it calls them "Electoral College polls", I'll give you $100,
 
tres borrachos said:
Please post a link to the Electoral College results polls you claim to have seen.

The polls I posted were the same that have always been used, including by Kellyanne Conway when she was one of the country's best pollsters. They are polling the popular vote. And in 2016, they were almost spot on.

No, it isn't "complete nonsense". It's a fact. If you can show me where in those RCP polls it calls them "Electoral College polls", I'll give you $100,
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I like to watch polls from Trafalgar Group out of Georgia, as they had 47 states correct. They missed on NH, NV, and WI, a flip of ten EVs each way, so they hit the EC perfectly.

TG usually doesn’t come out with their polls until the last week, and they did that again in 2018. There are some good hits for Trafalgar Group on search, including one from Politico.

As for coattails in 2016, those belonged to GOP Senators carrying #45 in several key states, such as WI, PA, NC, AZ, OH, FL and GA to name a few. MO was just the opposite, with Blunt carried by #45.

The GOP only lost 2 of 24 Senate seats in 2016, after gaining 9 in 2014. That 2014 election, and most especially the catastrophe in 2010, will live in electoral infamy for Democrats, for more reasons than I care to state.

As for DP, Risky Thicket put out a long post the night before the election predicting the winner and why. He was spot on.
 
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Linc said:
I like to watch polls from Trafalgar Group out of Georgia, as they had 47 states correct. They missed on NH, NV, and WI, a flip of ten EVs each way, so they hit the EC perfectly.

TG usually doesn’t come out with their polls until the last week, and they did that again in 2018. There are some good hits for Trafalgar Group on search, including one from Politico.

As for coattails in 2016, those belonged to GOP Senators carrying #45 in several key states, such as WI, PA, NC, AZ, OH, FL and GA to name a few. MO was just the opposite, with Blunt carried by #45.

The GOP only lost 2 of 24 Senate seats in 2016, after gaining 9 in 2014. That 2014 election, and most especially the catastrophe in 2010, will live in electoral infamy for Democrats, for more reasons than I care to state.

As for DP, Risky Thicket put out a long post the night before the election predicting the winner and why. He was spot on.
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I'm familiar with them. Never been polled by them but do know them.

I'd love to see Risky's post again.
 
Anagram said:
They were the least accurate poll in 2018. And although their national poll performed well in 2016, this isn't usually the case. I recently looked at their polls for the past decade to see if one poster's claim that they almost always favored Democrats was correct. Besides favoring the GOP nearly exclusively, they were often near the bottom in terms of closest margin to the final result.
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You were looking at Presidential approval ratings? Which is what this thread is about. I haven't trusted FIveTHirtyEight so much since ESPN bought them but do give them a look now and then and don't advocate for or against them.

I do agree Rasmussen wasn't at its best in its 2018 results.
 
AlbqOwl said:
And how many of those polls were polling presidential approval or polling likely voters?
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Your claim was that they were “ALWAYS” (your word) a top 5 poller and that they “NEVER” (your word) were rated in the middle or lower.

I linked a fairly respected poll ranking where they were not top 5 and were ranked in the middle or lower.

Ergo - blatantly false and easily disproven
 
AlbqOwl said:
You were looking at Presidential approval ratings? Which is what this thread is about. I haven't trusted FIveTHirtyEight so much since ESPN bought them but do give them a look now and then and don't advocate for or against them.

I do agree Rasmussen wasn't at its best in its 2018 results.
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I was looking at their results, all of their results, since you said they were always in the top 5 or so of polling accuracy. Since the accuracy of presidential approval ratings can't be tested, I did not consider them.
 
Juggernaut74 said:
Your claim was that they were “ALWAYS” (your word) a top 5 poller and that they “NEVER” (your word) were rated in the middle or lower.

I linked a fairly respected poll ranking where they were not top 5 and were ranked in the middle or lower.

Ergo - blatantly false and easily disproven
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Well you may be right though I did have the presidential approval rating in mind when I wrote it.
 
Anagram said:
I was looking at their results, all of their results, since you said they were always in the top 5 or so of polling accuracy. Since the accuracy of presidential approval ratings can't be tested, I did not consider them.
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I understand. I did have the presidential approval rating in mind when I wrote that and Rasmussen is the ONLY one doing daily rolling polls since Gallup discontinued that. But I'll concede that overall on all polls on average their track record does miss the mark as much or more as anybody else.
 
Here's a poll I just saw.

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trixare4kids said:
I don't put much stock into any poll. Remember when the consensus said Trump would not win the primaries and then he did? Oh, and we all know how wrong they were in the presidential election exit polls.
Poll numbers change so quickly from day to day, and depending on the poll, I'd imagine Trump will get a boost after tonight's state of the union address.
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Sounds like you just didn't understand the polls. They weren't wrong.
 
Yakshi said:
I don’t know why anyone would cherry pick one favorable poll while ignoring all of the others.

Realclearpolitics, which averages Trump’s approval over the last month or so, reports the following:

41.1 percent approve of Trump.

55.5 percent disapprove of Trump.

Personally, I think that those are terrible numbers.

But the thing that really clinches it for me how lousy Trump is doing as president?

A thread from a Trump sycophant trumpeting 48 percent approval as if that is something to be happy about.
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Every so often you'll get a poster who cites Rasmussen or Harris Interactive polls which tend to favor Trump. Despite their favorable lean toward Trump in comparison to other polls, this is still a negative poll rating; it's why I find it odd that anyone would consider this something to boast about.
 
Juggernaut74 said:
48%? “Fabulous”? “Doing GREAT”?

This must be that “new math” I keep hearing about.

When I was a kid, 48% was well into “failing” territory.
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With modern media coverage, propaganda from Holllywood and TV, and propaganda from the education systems it's a shock it's not much lower than 48%.
 
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