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THREE WEEKS OUT: No Blue Wave, Not Even in the Pacific!

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Doc91478

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THREE WEEKS OUT: No Blue Wave, Not Even in the Pacific!​


https://bigleaguepolitics.com/three-weeks-out-no-blue-wave-not-even-in-the-pacific/
With two weeks to go until the midterms, Republicans are virtually guaranteed to win the Senate. As of today, North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Arizona, and Missouri appear safe. Just today, the third consecutive poll showing Dean Heller up in Nevada came out (Emerson) and he has expanded his lead now to seven.
This would mean that as of today, the GOP would gain a net of two seats in the Senate. Races still supposedly up in the air are Montana, Indiana, West Virginia, Florida, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Ohio. Races where the Democrat has a lead outside the margin of error are Wisconsin and Michigan.
It remains my belief that most of these will continue trending Republican as the other five have. This is a pattern. I full expect by election day Montana, Florida, and Indiana will be safe; that Minnesota (Houseley’s race), West Virginia, and Ohio will be nail biters and all three could easily flip to Republicans.
When the dust settles I think the Republicans will gain a net of four to seven seats, but very possibly we will end up with a net gain of eight or even nine. The trends are just that strong.... Trending: Trump Awes Lesley Stahl: ‘He Is Much More Confident. He Is Truly President.’ …. No, the Democrats have no chance—none—to take the Senate. If this race ends up like 2016, the Democrats will be routed at every single level.


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If the GOP gains seats in both houses (i.e. the Dems get massacred in the midterms), Antifa is going to go nuts, the Democratic party will split, and 2020 will be smooth sailing for Trump. Regardless, vote like we're down twenty points ... Do not be complacent!

 
THREE WEEKS OUT: No Blue Wave, Not Even in the Pacific!
Click to expand...

The so-called "blue wave" won't be manifest, and isn't expected to be by rational folks, until election day, or perhaps the day after the election.

Why are you looking for one now?
 
Keeping in mind that a few years years ago (Before Trump) the conventional wisdom was that R's should be fine in the House this year because of gerrymandering, and that currently 538 has the D's with a 6 out of 7 chance of taking the House....
 
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Aww the Trump supporters are now using wishful thinking to predict the election results. How cute
 

If your relying on a Right Wing cite to cling to you are really into wishful thinking. The cite was founded by a former Breitbart editor and chief. The cite is famous for claiming Peter Strzok was born in Iran amoungst other nutty theories.

I will stick with Real Clear Politics aggregate results, Dems up by 7.3 points. Even with the 3% margin of error the GOP can say bye bye to the House. Though I have a suspicion the Dems will make enough gains to tie the Senate.
 
There was a blue wave in the house. Now, the democrats hold a majority. They gained a few seats in the gubernationals and lost a few seats in the senate.
 
The media’s eagerness to discount the ‘blue wave’ feeds a dangerous problem

The Democrats are likely to gain 38 House seats -- more than predicted, capturing that house.

Of the 35 Senate seats up in 2018, 26 were held by Democrats and several in deep red states. Democrats seem to be holding their loss to 1 or two.

Democrats captured seven governorships and lost none.

Democrats won over 300 state legislature seats, capturing a number of state houses.

If that's not a Blue Wave, the term has no meaning.
 

Reading people's projections after the fact is always fun. I think you should have paid better attention to composite polls, such as RCP and Fivethrityeight, as they were generally spot on. I make this point because we had to endure two years of people telling us the polls are all wrong, look at 2016. No, the polls are pretty good, if you look at what they are telling you collectively. If you had, you would not have crawled so far out on the branch away from the trunk of reality.

Moreover, all in, it was a blue wave. Yes, a loss of two seats in the Senate, but a pickup of 35-40 seats resulting in a flip; the firming of Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico as blue states; the exposure of purple in Arizona, Texas and Florida; A pick up of 6 statehouses and state legislatures; 317 house districts making a pronounced shift toward blue; and strong D performance in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania with protends to tell Trump that path to re-election may be gone...... yes, it was a very good BLUE night.
 
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Agree in conclusion. However, Dems took seven governorships, not six.
 

I'd also argue that the polls were also spot on in 2016. People just aren't good at reading them. Clinton was predicted to win the popular vote by a few points and had a 3:4 chance of winning the election. She won the popular vote by as much as was expected. 3:4 odds are strong favorite odds, they're not inevitable. It's like winning two coin flips in a row, it happens. Trump drew a good hand in a few states.. unlikely, but not unpredictable.

This year the analysis was better. No one was talking about 99.8% probabilities. 85% odds are like a roll of a die. 1 you lose, 2,3,4,5,6 you win. Strong odds, but not a guarantee.

Another way to think about this year would be the days of the week. Pick a random day of the week: the weekends are the upsets. Saturday the GOP keeps the House, Sunday the Dems capture the senate, and the weekdays the Dems capture the House and GOP keeps the Senate. It's not usually the weekend, but there's one every week.
 

Good to see how well this thread worked out for you.

Womp womp.
 

I agree. The polls were actually reasonably accurate, within the margin of error. The composite national polls were spot on, but state polling in presidential elections is the key to prognostication, but state polls are generally not done as frequently and often done by local polling outfits (the local newspaper) and thus are somewhat more suspect that national polls conducted by national polling companies. What was lost in 2016 was the late movement, which can be seen somewhat in the last polls.

IMHO, the Comey issue 10 days before the vote, combined with Russian fake news on social just wore down those that would go to the polls to vote for Hillary as a defense against Trump (the hold your nose for Hillary voter), leading to a great many simply staying home in MN, WI, MI, OH and PA, which ultimately was the difference.

All in, however, if you read the composite of polls AND watch for momentum swings, you will find the elections polls are actually pretty good.

BTW. Fivethirtyeight had Clinton with a 71-290 odds, which is roughly 1 to 2. It was 65-35 just before the election.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

If the weatherman says there is a 30% chance of rain and it rains, he was not wrong.
 
No Blue Wave huh?

Democrats this last election got 60.5 million votes, Trump got elected with 63 (the minority btw). That is 96% of Trump's vote share by an opposition party. The previous record was Nixon, at 92 percent.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...n-republicans-nate-silver-votes-a8641006.html

49.2 percent of eligible voters turned out.

And it's only going to get worse for Republicans because gerrymandering is getting shot down all over.

I also predict that when they have to defend more than 9 senate seats, they'll lose the senate.

Least popular President of all time. He finally won something on merit...
 
Funny how they never revisit their prediction threads when it doesn't go so well.
 

Florida showed all America that a good portion of the Democrat voters dont actually exsist except on paper. This being exposed is a huge victory for the GOP and all other Americans.

But even with that Democrats got a lower than average gain in Congress. The GOP gained in the Senate, it's only the 3rd time this has happened in 100 years in a first midterm.

2012 Democrats took the Congress by about the same amount as now, and then lost it in the next election.

With the continuing Trump economy and the fraud exposure I think that history will repeat itself.
 

I notice distinct lack of links supporting a word you say.

I notice that about alot of Trump supporters.

Let me clue you in, no one respects Trump supporters honesty or integrity. Even a lil bit. No one. That dumbass thats about to quote me and pretend to be independent and say, I do. He/she is a Trump supporter trying to lend credibility to garbage bull****.

Everything you claim, needs to be linked to a source, and that source will be ****ing checked and checked and checked. If it's even clicked, because no one here wants malware from far right whackjob site.

No Trump supporter ever deserves the benefit of the doubt, or taken at their word.
 

Nice attack... Broad Brushing nicely. Yep, a real fine attempt to engage in discussion with your counterparts...
 

Links to what?

The massive loses of Clinton and Obama in this same midterm?

The 2012 & 2014 congressional election results?

The results of the current election?

Aside from my opinion that Democrats will lose next time everything I stated are undisputed historical numbers.

Why not demand a link to prove who won the last Superbowl?

If you are that ignorant of history you are in over your head head here. Use you own internet to educate yourself.
 
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