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Thought Experiment: The Fallout Shelter

Yeah. It's certainly iffy. However, I chose to keep as many fertile men and women as possible for that exact reason. Greater numbers certainly wouldn't hurt our chances. Hell! The doctor could possibly even take sperm, and/or egg samples from the rejects before throwing them out, if we were really concerned about it.

Could the lack of sunlight be rectified in any way? Is it guaranteed to be lethal?

The only way it would ever work is if we stumbled upon another large group of survivors after we went back to the surface. Sorry, but even if we kept every single person, there's no way 12 people could rebuild the population. It's just not genetically possible.

That's why I maximized it for survival by keeping the botanist and focusing on cohesion. The only way humanity survives is if we make it to the surface, manage to feed ourselves reliably, and find other survivors.

Absolute guarantee? No. But the child will be extremely stunted and sickly. Best case scenario, it's mentally retarded and probably crippled. But it will probably succumb to either SIDS or respiratory failure as a complication of extreme rickets. Supplementation is not enough to make up for this in an infant, especially the mental impacts.

Even the adults will suffer after so long without natural light. Their mental health and sleep cycle especially, which is another reason we need the medical personnel and the priest. A baby will be much worse off.

While it is possible we could keep the baby at least alive through heavy supplementation, I think this is an unwise use of resources. It will still be severely disabled even with supplementation, and it will take resources away from the adults which they need in order to not die of sleep deprivation, or wind up becoming psychotic.
 
The survival of the human race supercedes ideals of mercy and sympathy.

My picks in order of importance are:

1. One doctor, male, age 50. He is a necessity for the health and well-being of the group. His problems with weight and blood-pressure will be alleviated by the strict survival diet and an exercise regimen.

2. One single mother, female (obviously), age 24 w/infant daughter. This is a two-fer. An adult female still young enough to breed, and a child who is also a female. One who will not utilize rations for a year and even then, in smaller amounts than an adult.

3. One botanist, female, age 34. Another female to perpetuate the species with the added necessary skills to guide us in our food growth efforts. She can also help locate and identify herbs which can be used to make medicines.

4. Me, I am as qualified as the other military officer and don't have PTSD. Leadership (hell its MY shelter after all) and survival training skills, plus combat capability for group defense.

5. One unemployed layabout, male, age 26. Able bodied male who can work for his feed and be trained to help defend the group.

6. One lawyer, female, age 36. Intelligent female capable of breeding, offer counsel, and able to learn new skills, seek out educational support materials in our search for resources.

REJECTS:

1. One high-ranking military officer, male, age 45. Liability; threat to stability and security of the group.

2. One nurse, female, age 67. Liability; too old to breed, skills less than that of the doctor, likely to become a burden due to her age.

3. One priest, male, age 42. Liability; moral issues with necessary survival activities, non-breeding extra mouth.

4. One transient who managed to sneak in at the last moment, male, age 28. Liability; morally untrustworthy, may steal or secretly hoard resources, may harm others, threat to group security.

5. One additional transient who managed to sneak in, female, age 21. Liability; same issues as boyfriend in #4, which negates her value as a breeding female.

6. One nuclear physicist, male, age 30. Liability; drain on resources with no return. Knowledge recoverable from books.

That's it.
Dayem Captain, I like this!

If we're ever in a scenario like this, I'm making you my #2 in command!
 
The only way it would ever work is if we stumbled upon another large group of survivors after we went back to the surface. Sorry, but even if we kept every single person, there's no way 12 people could rebuild the population. It's just not genetically possible.

That's why I maximized it for survival by keeping the botanist and focusing on cohesion. The only way humanity survives is if we make it to the surface, manage to feed ourselves reliably, and find other survivors.

Absolute guarantee? No. But the child will be extremely stunted and sickly. Best case scenario, it's mentally retarded and probably crippled. But it will probably succumb to either SIDS or respiratory failure as a complication of extreme rickets. Supplementation is not enough to make up for this in an infant, especially the mental impacts.

Even the adults will suffer after so long without natural light. Their mental health and sleep cycle especially, which is another reason we need the medical personnel and the priest. A baby will be much worse off.

While it is possible we could keep the baby at least alive through heavy supplementation, I think this is an unwise use of resources. It will still be severely disabled even with supplementation, and it will take resources away from the adults which they need in order to not die of sleep deprivation, or wind up becoming psychotic.

According to this, the minimum number required would be between 80 and 160. However, that's specifically trying to avoid any kind of damage from inbreeding. I'm not sure how small of a population one could get away with while keeping inbreeding only at "livable levels," rather than getting rid of it entirely.

The goal would basically have to be to produce enough people to survive for at least a couple of generations, and hope that you ran into someone else in the meantime. That seems imminently doable... In theory.

As far as deficiency is concerned, could sunlamps be a work-around? It might be possible to build some, if worse came to worse.
 
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Yeah. It's certainly iffy. However, I chose to keep as many fertile men and women as possible for that exact reason. Greater numbers certainly wouldn't hurt our chances. Hell! The doctor could possibly even take sperm, and/or egg samples from the rejects before throwing them out, if we were really concerned about it.

Could the lack of sunlight be rectified in any way? Is it guaranteed to be lethal to the infant?

Sunlight helps with the production of Vitamin D. Simply ensure you have a sufficient store of vitamin D for the period in the shelter and the kid should be alright.
 
A military officers "alpha" personality means absolutely zero without the force of the state behind him. in fact, he's a worse candidate for survival then the nuke physicist if his only speciality is making O-grade in the army.

You ever hear of Clipperton island? go look up what happened when the lighthouse keepers "alpha" personality overstayed its welcome.
Having never heard of it, I found it a chilling story.

Thanks for the reference (in all fairness though, the lightkeeper likely was deranged).
 
According to this, the minimum number required would be between 80 and 160. However, that's specifically trying to avoid any kind of damage from inbreeding. I'm not sure how small of a population one could get away with while keeping inbreeding only at "livable levels," rather than getting rid of it entirely.

The goal would basically have to be to have enough people to survive for at least a couple of generations, and hope that you ran into someone else in the meantime. That seems imminently doable... In theory.

As far as deficiency is concerned, could sunlamps be a work-around? It might be possible to build some, if worse came to worse.

It's specifically to create a VIABLE population -- one capable of life. Anything below 80, and the inbreeding will kill us off. And that's with perfect genetic screening. With a bunch of random people, we're looking at something closer to 160.

If I swap in anyone else, I reduce the chances of the group surviving for 5 years. Given that it is impossible for them to repopulate the planet by themselves no matter what, I'd rather run things down to the wire on the generational side than run them to the wire on the 5-year survival side.

I looked up sunlamps and I found a little, regarding neonatal use. My inclination is to say, only to about the same degree that supplements can. Which is to say, it's better than nothing, but not nearly as good as real sun.

Can sunlight replace phototherapy units in the treatment of neonatal jaundice? An in vitro study. - PubMed - NCBI

And unfortunately, it works best when it's in your eyes. In order for this to be worth doing, we'd want the most bang for our buck. So you have to consider the risk of blindness, immune diseases, and cancer from such constant, intensive treatment.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_effects_of_sunlight_exposure

The question we have to ask here is this: what amount of resources are we willing to use to create a disabled child when the reality is that there will not be a significant difference between a child who is 5, and a child who is 1 in terms of how reproductively useful they are, given that we will need to find other survivors to have any hope or re-population?
 
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Sunlight helps with the production of Vitamin D. Simply ensure you have a sufficient store of vitamin D for the period in the shelter and the kid should be alright.

S'not that simple. Not for a baby, anyway. Even if you supplement for Vitamin D, there will still be extreme disruption to the development of the brain, because the brain decides how to run based on environmental cues. Also, Vitamin D happens to be a supplement that is rather poorly used by the body. This isn't a huge deal for an adult -- they'll get by. But for a baby that's growing rapidly, it's not going to be enough to completely negate the deficiency.
 
It's specifically to create a VIABLE population -- one capable of life. Anything below 80, and the inbreeding will kill us off. And that's with perfect genetic screening. With a bunch of random people, we're looking at something closer to 160.

If I swap in anyone else, I reduce the changes of the group surviving. Given that it is impossible for them to repopulate the planet by themselves no matter what, I'd rather run things down to the wire on the generational side than run them to the wire on the 5-year survival side.

I looked up sunlamps and I found a little, regarding neonatal use. My inclination is to say, only to about the same degree that supplements can. Which is to say, it's better than nothing, but not nearly as good as real sun.

Can sunlight replace phototherapy units in the treatment of neonatal jaundice? An in vitro study. - PubMed - NCBI

And unfortunately, it works best when it's in your eyes. In order for this to be worth doing, we'd want the most bang for our buck. So you have to consider the risk of blindness, immune diseases, and cancer from such constant, intensive treatment.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_effects_of_sunlight_exposure

The question we have to ask here is this: what amount of resources are we willing to use to create a disabled child when the reality is that there will not be a significant difference between a child who is 5, and a child who is 1 in terms of how reproductively useful they are, given that we will need to find other survivors to have any hope or re-population?

Maybe we can put in a sunroof. :mrgreen:

Lol. Oh well! You do the best you can with what you have. Like I said (and you did as well), the best bet is to simply shore up your chances for surviving until the bunker opens, and then for a generation or two after that. With any luck, you'll run into other survivors.

If not... Well, at least you tried. :shrug:
 
In other words...

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:roll:

I will say it again, this scenario will never happen, if I'm wrong you may condemn me out of the shelter into wastes. sure.

Again, you do realize that people in certain dangerous, high responsibility, positions can and do have to make these decisions all the time, right? Even the steel plant foreman you mentioned might very well have to choose to lock some of his workers in an environment where he knows they'll all die in order to save the rest of his workforce if something goes wrong.
You never cease to try to protect your people. In such a case like an industrial accident though, you're not picking who lives or dies, if some people cannot be reached sometimes it may be too dangerous to risk your people in a rescue mission or for the Fire Dept to risk their persons in a rescue, but if there's an ok chance you can you move in and try. This is a completely different scenario, your idea is basically human sacrifice to a false god and not a problem imminent danger. if the party you have can eat for two years you're not looking at the same thing as half the plant is on fire. your idea is more akin to "the plants on fire so I'm going to kill 10 of you because there's only enough fire crews to save x number of us" it's ridicolous.
You seem to be mistaking huffy indignance for having an actual argument. It's quite irrational, I'm afraid.
No, it's an easy argument, your scenario doesn't happen in the real world. it's contrived to where there is no alternative for no other reason then a theorist invented it.


The lighthouse keeper was a psychopathic social outcast, obviously, with no other goal than seizing on the opportunity to satisfy his own needs. He took that power because the actual military governor of the island, and every other adult male who could have stopped him, died in a boating accident.

Lets talk about the military officer, he made at least 2 very seriously wrong decisions that needlessly endangered that entire colony. the first being not to accept the lift off the island after the one american ship informed them their resupplies were no longer coming, and a decision to risk all of the men rowing to another ship in a storm. in fact, in a real life version of this scenario the military governor on tha island would be the first person you save in your scenario.

Again, what on Earth does that have to do with a trained military professional working towards the goal of trying to preserve the human race?

why does the scenario dictate a trained military professional? why not a foreman? or a sheriff? or a CEO? or the president of the Lions club?



Nope. No anti-military bias there at all. :lamo

only a counter to the extreme pro-military bias you're showing now. the only real reason you're saving the military officer is because he is the character in this plot most identifiable to you. if we replaced the aging woman with your grandmother you would invent whatever justification you needed to keep her in the colony. this scenario reduces each human being to a chess piece and not an actual person.



No, clearly, with the human race on the line, we should allow a bunch of uninformed morons making decisions purely on the basis of emotion and knee-jerk instinct to take control instead. Brilliant! :roll:

I think I'm beginning to see Smoke's point on "cohesion" here. lol

The human race will never be "on the line" to where your autocratic decisions are the difference between thriving and extinction. the reality is, you probably won't even be able to gauge that you have exactly two years of food versus 4.

The only time I'm aware of that a remotely similar scenario occured was the wreck of the Essex and they drew straws to figure out who to cannabalize. that's it.
 
Having never heard of it, I found it a chilling story.

Thanks for the reference (in all fairness though, the lightkeeper likely was deranged).

If you go to itunes, look up the podcast "lore" by aaron manhke, that's where I first heard the story, and he's got various podcasts discussing historical events and legends.

(clipperton was an episode entitled "the king" )
 
Maybe we can put in a sunroof. :mrgreen:

Lol. Oh well! You do the best you can with what you have. Like I said (and you did as well), the best bet is to simply shore up your chances for surviving until the bunker opens, and then for a generation or two after that. With any luck, you'll run into other survivors.

If not... Well, at least you tried. :shrug:

Yeah... And to be honest, from the cohesion point of view, I'd actually have rather kept the lay-about specifically because he won't have to deal with the bereavement of losing a child (since I am not willing to short-change health- and sanity-saving resources for the mostly healthy adults in order to make a disabled child). Again, this will put another layer of burden on our mental health resources.

But, I kept her to give us an extra generation without having to resort to propagating MS into such a teenie tiny gene pool. So... *sigh* Yeah, that was probably the hardest choice for me.
 
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I will say it again, this scenario will never happen, if I'm wrong you may condemn me out of the shelter into wastes. sure.

The scenario is deliberately designed to force you to make decisions. It doesn't matter if the exact scenario it describes would play out or not. The mindset it requires is sometimes needed in real world situations.

That's really all there is to it.

You never cease to try to protect your people.

What?

In such a case like an industrial accident though, you're not picking who lives or dies, if some people cannot be reached sometimes it may be too dangerous to risk your people in a rescue mission or for the Fire Dept to risk their persons in a rescue, but if there's an ok chance you can you move in and try.

Just like a wishy-washy foreman might endanger his plant, and his workforce, by leaving the fire doors open for too long in an emergency, or refusing to close them at all on the off chance that the people inside might be rescued, the people in the OP scenario could endanger the survival of the human race by not letting go of expendable personnel, when necessary.

This really isn't a hard concept...

This is a completely different scenario, your idea is basically human sacrifice to a false god and not a problem imminent danger. if the party you have can eat for two years you're not looking at the same thing as half the plant is on fire. your idea is more akin to "the plants on fire so I'm going to kill 10 of you because there's only enough fire crews to save x number of us" it's ridicolous.

Again... What? :lol:

Lets talk about the military officer, he made at least 2 very seriously wrong decisions that needlessly endangered that entire colony. the first being not to accept the lift off the island after the one american ship informed them their resupplies were no longer coming, and a decision to risk all of the men rowing to another ship in a storm. in fact, in a real life version of this scenario the military governor on tha island would be the first person you save in your scenario.

In other words, he followed his given orders, until it became apparent that this was infeasible. Then, he attempted to escape the island by contacting a passing ship because his people were in danger.

He did pretty much exactly what he was supposed to do. It simply didn't work.

why does the scenario dictate a trained military professional? why not a foreman? or a sheriff? or a CEO? or the president of the Lions club?

Because I got the scenario from a military course, obviously. :roll:

In any case, what difference does it make? If you want to turn the General into freaking Rick Grimes for the purpose of this exercise, be my guest. I really couldn't care less.

only a counter to the extreme pro-military bias you're showing now. the only real reason you're saving the military officer is because he is the character in this plot most identifiable to you.

Dude... The person I most identify with in this scenario is ME. :lol:

The person reading the scenario, and offering their solution, is one of the 12 in the bunker. Remember?

If I wanted to turn this into a narcissistic display of personal biases, I'd off the General/Colonel/or etca and make myself the head honcho. It simply happens to be the case that I'm more than happy to play subordinate to someone who knows what they're doing better than I do.

this scenario reduces each human being to a chess piece and not an actual person.

You realize that this is the whole point of the exercise, correct? :screwy

In the kind of professions I, and a great number of other people, are in, it is sometimes necessary to put emotion and empathy aside and view human beings as being little more than pieces on a board. It can even save lives, if properly applied.

Like Adverse said earlier, it's fine if you don't want to make these kinds of decisions. However, the amount of effort you're going to in order to justify that indecisiveness is really kind of absurd. It frankly doesn't matter whether you want to accept the reality that this kind of thinking is sometimes necessary or not. That reality exists with or without you, and it's not going to change.
 
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In the kind of professions I, and a great number of other people, are in, it is sometimes necessary to put emotion and empathy aside and view human beings as being little more than pieces on a board. It can even save lives, if properly applied.

Like Adverse said earlier, it's fine if you don't want to make these kinds of decisions. However, the amount of effort you're going to in order to justify that indecisiveness is really kind of absurd. It frankly doesn't matter whether you want to accept the reality that this kind of thinking is sometimes necessary or not. That reality exists with or without you, and it's not going to change.

It's not indecisiveness to say I'm not going to go around killing people except the ones I want to f*** on day one when we have, by your own scenario, years of provisions.

I was in a college english class where we had this (well not exactly the same, it was a stuck on an island with food to feed 6 for 5 years and all twelve for 3 or something like that) scenario years ago, I was the one holdout, the professor said "no you have to kill people" and I said "why, because you said so?" and I was insistent to the point I finally flipped some classmates over to my position. I passed the course by the way.....

The only thing this scenario reveals is what apparently some people here think about women, it really doesn't speak to leadership capabilities....
 
Including yourself.

Oh, ok. Well, I'd get rid of myself then.

I only kept one person who is incapable of reproducing: the nurse. I don't have that kind of specialized knowledge.

If the group I picked didn't have such a heavy religious swing, I might be up for contention with the priest. Believe it or not, I'm good at that stuff. ;) But given that my group is mostly religious, and he can reproduce, he's a better pick than me.
 
Oh, ok. Well, I'd get rid of myself then.

I only kept one person who is incapable of reproducing: the nurse. I don't have that kind of specialized knowledge.

If the group I picked didn't have such a heavy religious swing, I might be up for contention with the priest. Believe it or not, I'm good at that stuff. ;) But given that my group is mostly religious, and he can reproduce, he's a better pick than me.

Very noble. :)

I actually added the religious element, and a couple of other things to spice up the exercise a bit. Originally, the transients were "hippie drug addicts" in their fifties, who came as a bundled deal. I split them up and made them younger so there would actually be some conceivable reason to keep at least one of them. I added the religious rankings so that there'd actually be some justification for keeping the priest.

To be fair, however, I tried to stay along real-world lines with it. I made the people who would statistically be most likely to be non-religious, or non-practicing religious, in real life, non-religious and non-practicing in the exercise (i.e. the physicist, the Lefty lawyer, the basement dweller, and etca).

I can also say that, objectively speaking, there wouldn't be much of a reason to either sacrifice myself, or sacrifice the General in favor of myself (which might seem like an option, given that we're both, technically, 'Military Officers'). The fact is that I'm a healthy, young, and (as far as I'm aware, anyway) fertile young man with a well above average IQ, some limited survival training, managerial skills, and experience both giving and following orders. While I don't think I'd be qualified to lead the group in question, per se (nor would I really want to), I could certainly be of use to it.
 
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It's not indecisiveness to say I'm not going to go around killing people except the ones I want to f*** on day one when we have, by your own scenario, years of provisions.

I was in a college english class where we had this (well not exactly the same, it was a stuck on an island with food to feed 6 for 5 years and all twelve for 3 or something like that) scenario years ago, I was the one holdout, the professor said "no you have to kill people" and I said "why, because you said so?" and I was insistent to the point I finally flipped some classmates over to my position. I passed the course by the way.....

The only thing this scenario reveals is what apparently some people here think about women, it really doesn't speak to leadership capabilities....



Moving things along...
 
Very noble. :)

I actually added the religious element, and a couple of other things to spice up the exercise a bit. Originally, the transients were "hippie drug addicts" in their fifties, who came as a bundled deal. I split them up and made them younger so there would actually be some conceivable reason to keep at least one of them. I added the religious rankings so that there'd actually be some justification for keeping the priest.

To be fair, however, I tried to stay along real-world lines with it. I made the people who would statistically be most likely to be non-religious, or non-practicing religious, in real life, non-religious and non-practicing in the exercise (i.e. the physicist, the Lefty lawyer, the basement dweller, and etca).

I can also say that, objectively speaking, there wouldn't be much of a reason to either sacrifice myself, or sacrifice the General in favor of myself. The fact is that I'm a healthy, young, and (as far as I'm aware, anyway) fertile young man with a well above average IQ, some limited survival training, managerial skills, and experience both giving and following orders. I don't think I'd be qualified to lead the group in question, per se, but I could certainly be of use to it.

I think that's fair. I honestly can't see any reason to keep a pair of nearly senior-aged drug addicts with no survival skills. :shrug: No clue why that was in the original scenario.

I seriously thought about keeping the Nancy. But ultimately cohesion is too important in an environment that lends itself to psychosis, and therefore violence, for me to keep a criminal. The lack of sun issue is actually a really, really big one that I don't think most people are paying enough attention to. Insanity and death by exhaustion are serious concerns.

I think I hit things somewhere between the military man and the priest. I don't have that sort of intensive survival training, but I have a **** ton of general knowledge, a whole lot of "clever," and I've done well at maintaining group mechanics, sometimes by leading. But we've already got that covered, by people who can actually make babies.

Like I said, straight, brutal logic.
 
Very noble. :)

I actually added the religious element, and a couple of other things to spice up the exercise a bit. Originally, the transients were "hippie drug addicts" in their fifties, who came as a bundled deal. I split them up and made them younger so there would actually be some conceivable reason to keep at least one of them. I added the religious rankings so that there'd actually be some justification for keeping the priest.

To be fair, however, I tried to stay along real-world lines with it. I made the people who would statistically be most likely to be non-religious, or non-practicing religious, in real life, non-religious and non-practicing in the exercise (i.e. the physicist, the Lefty lawyer, the basement dweller, and etca).

I can also say that, objectively speaking, there wouldn't be much of a reason to either sacrifice myself, or sacrifice the General in favor of myself (which might seem like an option, given that we're both, technically, 'Military Officers'). The fact is that I'm a healthy, young, and (as far as I'm aware, anyway) fertile young man with a well above average IQ, some limited survival training, managerial skills, and experience both giving and following orders. While I don't think I'd be qualified to lead the group in question, per se (nor would I really want to), I could certainly be of use to it.

Ah, but if I were the general in this scenario I would sacrifice myself.

I don't believe my other skills would balance out against the threat I posed to the group as a whole.

In fact, I would volunteer to be the enforcer of insuring that the other rejects left with me...at gun-point if necessary. Then maybe outside, facing whatever that environment brings I'd strive to see what I could do for those with me until radiation poisoning or other causes of death ensue. That would include providing a quick death if necessary to those who wished it.
 
Ah, but if I were the general in this scenario I would sacrifice myself.

I don't believe my other skills would balance out against the threat I posed to the group as a whole.

In fact, I would volunteer to be the enforcer of insuring that the other rejects left with me...at gun-point if necessary. Then maybe outside, facing whatever that environment brings I'd strive to see what I could do for those with me until radiation poisoning or other causes of death ensue. That would include providing a quick death if necessary to those who wished it.

Personally, I weighed it like this:

A) The General's got a Hell of a lot more experience than I do. Therefore, he's objectively more qualified... So long as he keeps things together.

B) He's got more credibility than I do, due to his age and rank. Considering that we're dealing with a group that's mostly made up of highly educated civilians, many of whom are at least a decade older than I am (and one of whom is blatantly anti-military), it might be kind of a tough sell making myself heard if I'm the only military person present. However, on the other hand, with a senior and subordinate officer present, we have the beginnings of a real rank structure. That organization may compel the rest of the group to more easily fall in line.

C) I can basically serve as a "fail-safe" if the General begins to behave erratically, and becomes a threat to the group.

Granted, however, all of this would depend upon the situation. If the Gen were to prove more nutter than normal right off of the bat, or if he were to take your stance on the issue, the above thought process would have to be adjusted.
 
A nuclear holocaust has occurred. You and a small group of eleven fellow survivors have managed to procure a shelter stocked with food and medical supplies. As far as you are aware, your group represents the last living human beings on planet Earth.

However, you have a problem. The shelter's supplies are limited, and your group is too large for the supplies on hand to support. With a population of six, and only limited rationing, your supplies can last five years. With all twelve persons (including yourself), on the other hand, the supplies will only last two years. If you ration your supplies strictly, you can save one additional person, for a total of seven, but the health of the group as a whole will suffer (note: if you're creative, it might be possible to stretch those rations further, in order to either save one additional person, for a total of eight, or alleviate the health impacts of saving seven, but I will not say how ;) ).

According to the expert in your group, radiation levels should be low enough to make it safe to exit the shelter in four years. It will take roughly a year to grow crops after that point.

Your group consists of the following:

One high-ranking military officer, male, age 45. He has advanced survival training, extensive leadership and managerial experience, and rather imposing presence. Unfortunately, however, he also has PTSD. This is manageable at the moment, but could get worse. He is moderately religious.

One nuclear physicist, male, age 30. He is a paraplegic, and somewhat sickly. No survival skills. He is non-religious.

One doctor, male, age 50. He is overweight and has high blood pressure. However, he also has considerable skill with both medicine and basic surgical procedures. He is religious, but non-practicing.

One nurse, female, age 67. She is the picture of good health, but her skills are not quite as great as the doctor in your group. She is devoutly religious.

One single mother, female (obviously), age 24. She is healthy, and has an infant daughter with her. She is presently breast feeding, so that child will not draw supplies (i.e. doesn't count). She is non-practicing religious.

One priest, male (again, obviously), age 42. He is in good health, though he lacks noteworthy survival skills. It should go without saying that he is religious.

One botanist, female, age 34. She has the beginning stages of multiple sclerosis, but is otherwise healthy. She is agnostic.

One transient who managed to sneak in at the last moment, male, age 28. He has demonstrated anti-social tendencies, has a criminal background, and is dependent on alcohol and very likely an illicit substance or two. He is non-religious.

One additional transient who managed to sneak in, female, age 21. Same as the above, romantically connected to the transient male. She was raised religious, but is non-practicing.

One lawyer, female, age 36. Highly intelligent, and she is in good health. However, she lacks survival skills, and does not get along with the military officer due to her political views. She is non-religious.

One unemployed layabout, male, age 26. He is in good health, and reasonably fit from a physical perspective, but he has no skills whatsoever. He is non-religious.

So...

Who lives and who dies? What is your reasoning for that decision? What is your endgame?

This was actually a group exercise we were given at Warrant Officer Candidate School. Needless to say, things got pretty damn dark in a hurry. :lol:

I'll be interested to see how civilians tackle the issue.



Shoot the last four. Next question....
 
The easiest decision right off the bat is cannibalism. It's the apocalypse after all so it's fair play. When calorie restriction is determining whether people live or die, we make use of every single calorie available. Whoever draws the short straws is getting pickled or salted and stored as last-resort emergency reserves.

Goners:

-Baby - the truth is she will consume calories via mom's milk or otherwise. She's totally non-contributing and probably even a detriment. There may come a time, topside, when our resources are secure enough to support having children. But not now. The strategy right now is hibernation.
-Stephen hawking - being wheelchair bound is bad news in the post-apocalypse.
-Male transient - yikes
-Nurse - The nursing background is tempting but we already have a physician and at 67 she's just not a wise investment. In five years she'll barely be able to contribute at the most crucial time.
-Priest - He's the oldest male without anything to offer beyond an extra pair of hands.

Keepers:
-Officer
-Doc
-Mother - i realize the baby is supposed to be a ball&chain with this one. But i'm keeping the mom without the baby. The truth is everybody entering the vault has just lost the people dearest to them. So the mother's not going to be in any worse condition psychologically than anyone else.
-Botanist - the MS made this difficult. In the end, her high upside justifies the risk in keeping her.
-Lawyer - proven value: intelligent, ambitious & hard-working enough to make it through law school. The supposed issue with her political views isn't a concern. Whether these people are going to mesh has far more to do with other aspects of their personalities that just aren't apparent here.
-Female transient
-Unemployed dude
 
Before one could rationalize killing the assumed extras the group would need to setup a system of decision making. If I were to unilaterally act and start killing people it may turn into chaos and jeopardize everyone's survival. The time frame is a guess and a month or two would not mean much, when considering acting rash might kill everyone or people who didnt actually have to die. Other options might arise in a little time. 12 people working together can do great things. This extra time would give the opportunity for some of the survivors to go beyond the call of duty. The military officer may be the type that would volunteer to go out and gather more supply's. The engineer may be able to figure out a suit to wear at a latter date so that someone can go gather supplies.

Deciding to kill people right off the bat is poor leadership skills.
 
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