That's where I think you're wrong. I think this election is mostly about Trump and his childish antics of throwing temper tantrums and calling others names. His schoolyard bullying tactics. More about his obnoxcious persona and his very unpresidential behavior. So much so, at least among those who are non-affiliated, less to non-partisan, swing voters, the group most folks call independents. That policy and what Trump has done or hasn't done as president is taking a back seat to quite a lot of them.
to these folks, who opposed Trump really makes little difference. I think you found that out in the midterms when there was no Hillary to save Trump and the GOP. Independents who in 2016 went to Trump 46-42 over Hillary with 12% voting third party, against both. In 2018 the voted Democratic by a 54-42 margin over the Republican congressional candidates. It isn't so much that Trump and the Republicans dropped from 46 down to 42%. It's the rise from 42% to 54% among independents voting Democratic. Then again, perhaps that shouldn't have been a surprise. 42% of independents voted for Hillary, then add the 12% who voted against both Hillary and Trump, you come up with 54%. Coincidence? Perhaps?
Now Trump's antics and his very unpresidential behavior along with his shall I say uncouth personality has had 4 years to grate on these folks. No, I don't think this election is policy driven as a battle of personalities. Perhaps childish in like a spoiled brat vs. an adult. Maybe? Time will tell.
After all, to many swing voters, the presidential election is nothing more than a beauty contest. Independents don't pay much attention at all to the day to day grind going on in Washington or even politics in general. It becomes a choice of who they like the best or dislike the least as back in 2016. Their perceptions of the candidates. Maybe even who they are tired of the most. Another difference is in 2016 Hillary Clinton was more or less the incumbent. The establishment, the status quo as she campaigned as being a third Obama term. This time around Trump is the incumbent, the establishment, the status quo. The one folks will decide to kept or let go. Biden is kind of irrelevant.