This is a huge week

[Jkca1]

How does it play out? By Friday are the markets up or down?

 

[RetiredUSN]

Confidence is low from the small businessman all the way up to large corporations.

Consumer confidence is at a 16 month low.

Low confidence alone usually brings on a recession.

Thanks Joe!

 

[grip]

How does it play out? By Friday are the markets up or down?

They're flat today. I don't think the markets reflect how the economy is doing for the bulk of the population. It seems when investors do good, it's at the regular consumer's cost.

 

[Chomsky]

They're flat today. I don't think the markets reflect how the economy is doing for the bulk of the population. It seems when investors do good, it's at the regular consumer's cost.

Yep, short term markets moves trade on psychology.

 

[RetiredUSN]

The better question would be......

What will unemployment look by Christmas.

 

[Mycroft]

How does it play out? By Friday are the markets up or down?

Don't know about the Wall Street...don't care. I'm more worried about the economy and how it affects Main Street.

One thing we know is that we are now in a recession

But the Biden pukes are already propagandizing that we aren't. They now want to redefine what a recession is.

​

Watch out folks...the Biden pukes are starting to piss on your leg.

 

[Isidore]

One thing we know is that we are now in a recession

But the Biden pukes are already propagandizing that we aren't. They now want to redefine what a recession is.

"Redefine"?

The following is from a ten year old archive of the website of the organization that dates the business cycles of the United States:

---

Q: Why doesn't the committee accept the two-quarter definition?

A: The committee's procedure for identifying turning points differs from the two-quarter rule in a number of ways. First, we do not identify economic activity solely with real GDP and real GDI, but use a range of other indicators as well. Second, we place considerable emphasis on monthly indicators in arriving at a monthly chronology. Third, we consider the depth of the decline in economic activity. Recall that our definition includes the phrase, "a significant decline in activity." Fourth, in examining the behavior of domestic production, we consider not only the conventional product-side GDP estimates, but also the conceptually equivalent income-side GDI estimates. The differences between these two sets of estimates were particularly evident in the recessions of 2001 and 2007-2009.

Q: The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. How does that relate to the NBER's recession dating procedure?

A: Most of the recessions identified by our procedures do consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but not all of them. In 2001, for example, the recession did not include two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. In the recession beginning in December 2007 and ending in June 2009, real GDP declined in the first, third, and fourth quarters of 2008 and in the first quarter of 2009. The committee places real Gross Domestic Income on an equal footing with real GDP; real GDI declined for six consecutive quarters in the recent recession.

https://web.archive.org/web/20120529055328/http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html

 

[Crovax]

"Redefine"?

The following is from a ten year old archive of the website of the organization that dates the business cycles of the United States:

---

Q: Why doesn't the committee accept the two-quarter definition?

A: The committee's procedure for identifying turning points differs from the two-quarter rule in a number of ways. First, we do not identify economic activity solely with real GDP and real GDI, but use a range of other indicators as well. Second, we place considerable emphasis on monthly indicators in arriving at a monthly chronology. Third, we consider the depth of the decline in economic activity. Recall that our definition includes the phrase, "a significant decline in activity." Fourth, in examining the behavior of domestic production, we consider not only the conventional product-side GDP estimates, but also the conceptually equivalent income-side GDI estimates. The differences between these two sets of estimates were particularly evident in the recessions of 2001 and 2007-2009.

Q: The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. How does that relate to the NBER's recession dating procedure?

A: Most of the recessions identified by our procedures do consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but not all of them. In 2001, for example, the recession did not include two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. In the recession beginning in December 2007 and ending in June 2009, real GDP declined in the first, third, and fourth quarters of 2008 and in the first quarter of 2009. The committee places real Gross Domestic Income on an equal footing with real GDP; real GDI declined for six consecutive quarters in the recent recession.

https://web.archive.org/web/20120529055328/http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html

And in general we have never used the subjective definition of the NBER.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/25/biden-administration-recession-pushback/

 

[gbg3]

Don't know about the Wall Street...don't care. I'm more worried about the economy and how it affects Main Street.

One thing we know is that we are now in a recession

But the Biden pukes are already propagandizing that we aren't. They now want to redefine what a recession is.

​

Watch out folks...the Biden pukes are starting to piss on your leg.

Yeah, Yellen was on the Sunday shows and she's really working hard at that redefinition tactic.

 

[Redress]

And in general we have never used the subjective definition of the NBER.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/25/biden-administration-recession-pushback/

We have never really used 2 consecutive quarters of decline as the definition. Here is a neat article from 1974: https://www.nytimes.com/1974/12/01/archives/the-changing-business-cycle-points-op-view.html

In terms of duration—declines in real G.N.P. for 2 consecutive quarters; a decline in industrial production over a six‐month period.

In terms of depth—A 1.5 per cent decline in teal G.N.P.; a 15 per cent decline nonagricultural employment; a wo‐point rise in unemployment to a level of at least 6 per cent.
In terms of diffusion—A decline in nonagricultural employment in more than 75 per cent of industries, as measured over six‐month spans, for 6 months or longer.

 

[gbg3]

And in general we have never used the subjective definition of the NBER.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/25/biden-administration-recession-pushback/

Lol, I think this redefining of recession with be kind of like the inflation narrative which, of course, was only transitory. I remember Yellen yammering on and on (Yellen style) all about transitory and it wasn't even that many months ago. Now, she'll need a "not a recession" narrative and we'll hear it again and again, just like we did with "transitory" inflation.

 

[gbg3]

By Friday are the markets up or down?

My guess is this we'll see a weekly decline this week but of course that's only a guess.

 

[Crovax]

We have never really used 2 consecutive quarters of decline as the definition. Here is a neat article from 1974: https://www.nytimes.com/1974/12/01/archives/the-changing-business-cycle-points-op-view.html

"—A 1.5 per cent decline in teal G.N.P"

Is that different from magenta GNP?

 

[Crovax]

Lol, I think this redefining of recession with be kind of like the inflation narrative which, of course, was only transitory. I remember Yellen yammering on and on (Yellen style) all about transitory and it wasn't even that many months ago. Now, she'll need a "not a recession" narrative and we'll hear it again and again, just like we did with "transitory" inflation.

I get it recession almost automatically means an electoral loss, so it's transparent why the WH is say this. What funny is the liberals here defending it.

 

[Redress]

"—A 1.5 per cent decline in teal G.N.P"

Is that different from magenta GNP?

I think it was supposed to be “real”. Not the only typo in what I quoted.

 

[Crovax]

I think it was supposed to be “real”. Not the only typo in what I quoted.

Yes OCR especially the cheap kind used for newspaper translations is often incorrect

 

[Gateman_Wen]

Confidence is low from the small businessman all the way up to large corporations.

Consumer confidence is at a 16 month low.

Low confidence alone usually brings on a recession.

Thanks Joe!

View attachment 67403417

Doomsaying from the retarded right is why consumer confidence is down.

Thanks RWNJ media personalities.

 

[Gateman_Wen]

They're flat today. I don't think the markets reflect how the economy is doing for the bulk of the population. It seems when investors do good, it's at the regular consumer's cost.

yup wallstreet does not equal mainstreet.

 

[Jkca1]

I listened to Kevin Hassett recently. He made the point that all the back to WW2 we've had 2 negative quarters ten times,every time they were followed by a recession. Every time. Yellen can try the old mid-direct on the country but she can't outsmart history. When the GDP comes in negative again, it will only reaffirm what we already know, we are and have been in a recession. And the recession will be entering its 3rd quarter starting August.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...hair-kevin-hassett/vi-AAZWvgG?category=foryou

Another thing to think about, 2% inflation is what the Fed is shooting for. Based on where inflation is today how many months will it take to get back to 2%?

How many more times will the Fed raise rates before it finally pivots?

Also, I don't want to hear another word about the strong job market.

For those of us that are old enough to remember 2007, here is a reminder about that recession;

"That recession began in December 2007 and concluded in June 2009, according to NBER.

Yet in April 2008 the U.S. unemployment rate was still just 5%, up modestly from 4.7% six months earlier. Unemployment peaked at 10% in October 2009, four months after the official end of the recession and seven months after the bear market in stocks hit bottom. (Bold mine) https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/032515/why-does-unemployment-tend-rise-during-recession.asp

 

[Isidore]

Also, I don't want to hear another word about the strong job market.

For those of us that are old enough to remember 2007, here is a reminder about that recession;

"That recession began in December 2007 and concluded in June 2009, according to NBER.

Yet in April 2008 the U.S. unemployment rate was still just 5%, up modestly from 4.7% six months earlier. Unemployment peaked at 10% in October 2009, four months after the official end of the recession and seven months after the bear market in stocks hit bottom.

Then:

Now:

When the GDP comes in negative again, it will only reaffirm what we already know, we are and have been in a recession. And the recession will be entering its 3rd quarter starting August.

 

[MrWonka]

Confidence is low from the small businessman all the way up to large corporations.

Consumer confidence is at a 16 month low.

Low confidence alone usually brings on a recession.

Thanks Joe!

So you're saying confidence alone may cause a recession. Who exactly is bringing confidence down? Joe Biden isn't the one preaching endless gloom and doom. That's you.
Hiring for last month was incredibly strong, unemployment is at record lows, gas prices are falling, the deficit is falling, inflation sucks; but it's far worse in Europe where Joe Biden is not the president.
It's the Republican party that wants a recession, and they are the ones undermining confidence by talking non-stop about it coming.

 

[Jkca1]

So it's Friday and the markets are up. Two bad quarters back to back and nobody cares because unemployment numbers are so low. I like the fact that EPS is closer to $16 now than back in January. I am of the opinion that the market is ignoring Europe, inflation, housing, gas/oil prices, food etc, not that they have priced all those factors into EPS yet. Time will tell. I will leave you with this last thought;

"NBER typically doesn't declare a recession until well after one has begun, sometimes for six-18 months, "so it's not real useful data in real time."