There never have been wildfires here....

[Glitch]

" In recent years, climate warming, accumulation of dead wood on the forest floor and a buildup of small trees – which serve as “ladder fuels,” moving fire from the forest floor up into the canopy – have led to hotter, larger wildfires. " ............................

" A warming climate is intensifying risks to forests that are already stressed by wildfires, drought and pests. Sustaining California’s iconic mountain forests requires acknowledging the multiple values they provide, and including the many groups who benefit from them in finding and implementing solutions. "

I don't disagree with most of what the "engineer's" have stated in their article. I would have preferred a forester and fire ecologist in addressing the issue of forest health. The paper dances around climate change and calls it climate warming.

I have said before that i know know if its climate change or part of a normal weather change on earth. When you have drought, high temperature, low relative humidity, low fuel moistures, high winds, and heavy fuel loads and an ignition occurs, there is a good chance the fire is going to be bad.

Was never a smokejumper, but did spend a few years on a hot shot crew before moving up the wildfire management organization. Have a lot of respect of firefighters willing to jump out of perfectly good aircraft. Have a good one.

If these fires were driven by climate, shouldn't they become worse as the climate warms? Yet according to the fire statistics for Alaska for the last twenty years that is not the case.

Year	Number of Fires	Acres Burned
2000	369	756,296.2
2001	351	218,113.9
2002	543	2,183,363.0
2003	476	602,717.9
2004	696	6,523,182.4
2005	624	4,663,880.4
2006	307	266,267.8
2007	509	649,411.4
2008	367	103,649.4
2009	527	2,951,592.9
2010	688	1,125,419.0
2011	515	293,018.0
2012	416	286,887.9
2013	613	1,316,288.5
2014	393	233,529.5
2015	768	5,111,452.5
2016	572	500,949.3
2017	362	653,148
2018	362	411,177
2019	719	2,589,893
2020	346	181,254

Source: http://forestry.alaska.gov/firestats/

Over a 21 year period that is an average of ‭501 fires with an average of 1,505,785.3 acres burned. So if the premise that climate was driving wildfires then both the number and the size of wildfires should be increasing and already be above the 21-year average, but that clearly is not the case. There is absolutely nothing to indicate that climate has anything to do with the number or size of any wildfire.

 

[Dittohead not!]

Wildfires
Restoring California’s forests to reduce wildfire risks will take time, billions of dollars and a broad commitment
As California contends with its worst wildfire season in history, it’s more evident than ever that land management practices in the state’s forested mountains need major changes.

Those of us who use the federal national forest land have known for some time that a long term and expensive commitment is in order. Will it happen, now that we've had the worst fires in state history? Good question. I haven't heard either candidate for president address this issue at all. Maybe I just missed it.

And, it's not just California. Colorado just experienced the biggest fire in that state's history as well, and there have been big wildfires in Oregon, Utah, and Montana.

 

[Dittohead not!]

If these fires were driven by climate, shouldn't they become worse as the climate warms? Yet according to the fire statistics for Alaska for the last twenty years that is not the case.

Year	Number of Fires	Acres Burned
2000	369	756,296.2
2001	351	218,113.9
2002	543	2,183,363.0
2003	476	602,717.9
2004	696	6,523,182.4
2005	624	4,663,880.4
2006	307	266,267.8
2007	509	649,411.4
2008	367	103,649.4
2009	527	2,951,592.9
2010	688	1,125,419.0
2011	515	293,018.0
2012	416	286,887.9
2013	613	1,316,288.5
2014	393	233,529.5
2015	768	5,111,452.5
2016	572	500,949.3
2017	362	653,148
2018	362	411,177
2019	719	2,589,893
2020	346	181,254

Source: http://forestry.alaska.gov/firestats/

Over a 21 year period that is an average of ‭501 fires with an average of 1,505,785.3 acres burned. So if the premise that climate was driving wildfires then both the number and the size of wildfires should be increasing and already be above the 21-year average, but that clearly is not the case. There is absolutely nothing to indicate that climate has anything to do with the number or size of any wildfire.

Climate change is not necessarily going to affect Alaska the same way it will affect the west coast of the lower 48. It's climate change, and local climates change in different ways.

 

[mike2810]

If these fires were driven by climate, shouldn't they become worse as the climate warms? Yet according to the fire statistics for Alaska for the last twenty years that is not the case.

Year	Number of Fires	Acres Burned
2000	369	756,296.2
2001	351	218,113.9
2002	543	2,183,363.0
2003	476	602,717.9
2004	696	6,523,182.4
2005	624	4,663,880.4
2006	307	266,267.8
2007	509	649,411.4
2008	367	103,649.4
2009	527	2,951,592.9
2010	688	1,125,419.0
2011	515	293,018.0
2012	416	286,887.9
2013	613	1,316,288.5
2014	393	233,529.5
2015	768	5,111,452.5
2016	572	500,949.3
2017	362	653,148
2018	362	411,177
2019	719	2,589,893
2020	346	181,254

Source: http://forestry.alaska.gov/firestats/

Over a 21 year period that is an average of ‭501 fires with an average of 1,505,785.3 acres burned. So if the premise that climate was driving wildfires then both the number and the size of wildfires should be increasing and already be above the 21-year average, but that clearly is not the case. There is absolutely nothing to indicate that climate has anything to do with the number or size of any wildfire.

Temperature is only one factor on how a fire will burn.
I have not said that "climate" is driving the fires. I have said that when you have drought, high winds, high temps, low rh%, low fuel moisture, continuous fuel load can lead to large fires WHEN an ignition occurs.

I have also said I Do Not Know if it is climate change or part of a weather pattern cycle. I have addressed the fire issue with the conditions the firefighters are facing.

There has been times when fire danger was extreme and there was no fires. No fires, no acres burned. There have been times when fire danger is extreme and ignitions has occurred. Some fires are caught, some become very large.

As far as your link. It shows fires and acres. It does not include fire conditions, amount of dry lightning events for that fire season.

 

[Glitch]

Climate change is not necessarily going to affect Alaska the same way it will affect the west coast of the lower 48. It's climate change, and local climates change in different ways.

What happened to climate being global? Are you asserting that Alaska is not part of the planet Earth? Or you are stating that you live in some leftist fantasy land that has no bearing on reality? Considering how mentally deranged leftist freaks have been for the last fours years, I will assume the later rather than the former.

The climate has absolutely no effect on wildfires, and humans have absolutely no effect on the climate. This AGW nonsense is just leftist stupidity. It also explains why leftist California is fleecing taxpayers by declaring every little fire to be a national emergency. Alaska has had more fires and bigger fires and never once declared a national emergency. California has declared 15 national fire emergencies just this year alone. A stereotypical leftist parasite State.

 

[Glitch]

Temperature is only one factor on how a fire will burn.
I have not said that "climate" is driving the fires. I have said that when you have drought, high winds, high temps, low rh%, low fuel moisture, continuous fuel load can lead to large fires WHEN an ignition occurs.

I have also said I Do Not Know if it is climate change or part of a weather pattern cycle. I have addressed the fire issue with the conditions the firefighters are facing.

There has been times when fire danger was extreme and there was no fires. No fires, no acres burned. There have been times when fire danger is extreme and ignitions has occurred. Some fires are caught, some become very large.

As far as your link. It shows fires and acres. It does not include fire conditions, amount of dry lightning events for that fire season.

You may not have made the declaration, but plenty of leftist freaks are despite the evidence to the contrary.

There are indeed many contributing factors to wildfires. The 6.5 million acres fires that burned in Alaska in 2004 were primarily the result of a decade long infestation of Chinese spruce beetles that killed multiple millions of acres of forest. Which had absolutely nothing to do with the climate.

We have never had a year without a fire in Alaska. 2020 is the lowest number of acres burned in Alaska in the last 20 years, but there were still 346 fires that burned 181,256 acres. If it were even remotely related to the climate we would be seeing both the number of fires and the amount of acres burned continually increasing, but that is not what the data shows.

The link I provided does include the amount of fires started by lightning and the number of fires started by humans. For example, the 2015 Alaska Forestry Annual Report shows that of the 768 fires that year, 353 (45.96%) were started by humans and 415 (54.04%) were started by lightning. It also shows the acreage that was burned for each fire. In 2015 lightning was responsible for burning 99.48%, while humans were responsible for 0.52% of the acreage burned.

Source: http://forestry.alaska.gov/Assets/pdfs/firestats/2015 Forestry Annual Report.pdf

 

[mike2810]

You may not have made the declaration, but plenty of leftist freaks are despite the evidence to the contrary.

There are indeed many contributing factors to wildfires. The 6.5 million acres fires that burned in Alaska in 2004 were primarily the result of a decade long infestation of Chinese spruce beetles that killed multiple millions of acres of forest. Which had absolutely nothing to do with the climate.

We have never had a year without a fire in Alaska. 2020 is the lowest number of acres burned in Alaska in the last 20 years, but there were still 346 fires that burned 181,256 acres. If it were even remotely related to the climate we would be seeing both the number of fires and the amount of acres burned continually increasing, but that is not what the data shows.

The link I provided does include the amount of fires started by lightning and the number of fires started by humans. For example, the 2015 Alaska Forestry Annual Report shows that of the 768 fires that year, 353 (45.96%) were started by humans and 415 (54.04%) were started by lightning. It also shows the acreage that was burned for each fire. In 2015 lightning was responsible for burning 99.48%, while humans were responsible for 0.52% of the acreage burned.

Source: http://forestry.alaska.gov/Assets/pdfs/firestats/2015 Forestry Annual Report.pdf

You are still missing my point. I know AK has more lighting caused fires than human. My point remains if you have a year with fewer thunderstorms (less lightning) events, you may have less fires. Years when AK has more thunderstorms and lighting the potential for more fires exist. The ignition source has very little to do with the fire behavior once the fire has started. For fires to spread even from a lightning strike the fuel conditions and weather have to be such to support the fire.

Hope you are not calling me a "leftist freak".

 

[Glitch]

You are still missing my point. I know AK has more lighting caused fires than human. My point remains if you have a year with fewer thunderstorms (less lightning) events, you may have less fires. Years when AK has more thunderstorms and lighting the potential for more fires exist. The ignition source has very little to do with the fire behavior once the fire has started. For fires to spread even from a lightning strike the fuel conditions and weather have to be such to support the fire.

Hope you are not calling me a "leftist freak".

Actually, you are missing the whole point of the thread. The OP is claiming the wildfires are the result of global climate change. Everything I have posted proves that is has absolutely nothing to do with the climate. Wildfires can have many sources, but climate isn't one of them.

If you are not claiming that the global climate change is responsible for wildfires, then I am very obviously excluding you from being a leftist freak. Only the mentally unhinged leftist morons make such stupid and unsupportable claims.

 

[mike2810]

Actually, you are missing the whole point of the thread. The OP is claiming the wildfires are the result of global climate change. Everything I have posted proves that is has absolutely nothing to do with the climate. Wildfires can have many sources, but climate isn't one of them.

If you are not claiming that the global climate change is responsible for wildfires, then I am very obviously excluding you from being a leftist freak. Only the mentally unhinged leftist morons make such stupid and unsupportable claims.

What we have hear is a failure to communicate.

You have missed my statement of me saying I do not know if the fires today are the result of Climate change or some long term weather pattern. The question that should be asked is what is causing the drought (below normal precipitation), what is causing the change in higher average temperatures and lower RH%.

I don't care what the ignition source is for the fire. I am looking at the current fire behavior and fuel conditions.

 

[Jack Hays]

The Real Toll of Oregon Forest Losses.
There are other losses to our forests, however, that may not have been fully reported so far. Nearly one million acres burned in Oregon’s west-side Cascade forests. These were some of the most productive (and well-stocked with mature timber) forests in the world.
Continue reading →

 

[mike2810]

Some articles regarding wildfire and climate.

You searched for climate change - Wildfire Today

wildfiretoday.com

 

[Glitch]

What we have hear is a failure to communicate.

You have missed my statement of me saying I do not know if the fires today are the result of Climate change or some long term weather pattern. The question that should be asked is what is causing the drought (below normal precipitation), what is causing the change in higher average temperatures and lower RH%.

I don't care what the ignition source is for the fire. I am looking at the current fire behavior and fuel conditions.

What are you talking about?

There is no drought, and the average mean surface temperature is lower now than it was a decade ago. We've been in a cooling period that began in 2010 and will likely continue until 2045, if the NASA GISS temperature cycle holds true.

As the data I posted indicates, there is no rhyme or reason for the number or size of the wildfires. We had more than 10 times the number of acres burn last year than we had burn this year, but only twice as many fires. Last year was more than double the 21-year average, and this year it is only 12% of the 21-year average. It clearly cannot be climate related.

 

[mike2810]

What are you talking about?

There is no drought, and the average mean surface temperature is lower now than it was a decade ago. We've been in a cooling period that began in 2010 and will likely continue until 2045, if the NASA GISS temperature cycle holds true.

As the data I posted indicates, there is no rhyme or reason for the number or size of the wildfires. We had more than 10 times the number of acres burn last year than we had burn this year, but only twice as many fires. Last year was more than double the 21-year average, and this year it is only 12% of the 21-year average. It clearly cannot be climate related.

My comment about drought was generic and not about AK. For example AZ has had 145 days of 100+ degree temps. New record.

Drought Monitor

Does the environment have enough water to sustain ecosystems, agriculture, and local economies that depend on it? Colors show experts' assessments of conditions related to dryness and drought. These maps focus on broad-scale conditions, so local conditions may vary. Categories reflect how much...

www.climate.gov

 

[Glitch]

My comment about drought was generic and not about AK. For example AZ has had 145 days of 100+ degree temps. New record.

Drought Monitor

Does the environment have enough water to sustain ecosystems, agriculture, and local economies that depend on it? Colors show experts' assessments of conditions related to dryness and drought. These maps focus on broad-scale conditions, so local conditions may vary. Categories reflect how much...

www.climate.gov

What does Arizona's temperature record have to do with droughts? 100°F+ is very common in the desert during the Summer months. So are droughts when your average precipitation is between 0.1" and 0.4" per month. That is why they call them deserts. You are also not going to find forests to burn in those deserts either.

 

[mike2810]

What does Arizona's temperature record have to do with droughts? 100°F+ is very common in the desert during the Summer months. So are droughts when your average precipitation is between 0.1" and 0.4" per month. That is why they call them deserts. You are also not going to find forests to burn in those deserts either.

Not all of Arizona is desert. We have one of the largest continuous stands forest of Ponderosa Pine.

I take it you did not look at the link I provide. You mentioned your temps have been dropping. I mentioned AZ as it is getting warmer.

Have a good one G. Hope you don't freeze this winter.

 

[longview]

Not all of Arizona is desert. We have one of the largest continuous stands forest of Ponderosa Pine.

I take it you did not look at the link I provide. You mentioned your temps have been dropping. I mentioned AZ as it is getting warmer.

Have a good one G. Hope you don't freeze this winter.

Is AZ getting warmer? NOAA's climate at a glance, shows minimal warming since a jump in the late 1990's
NOAA climate at a glance

 

[mike2810]

Is AZ getting warmer? NOAA's climate at a glance, shows minimal warming since a jump in the late 1990's
NOAA climate at a glance
View attachment 67300420

I will say this one more time. You must have not read all my posts. I do not know if the fires occurring to the last few years are due to climate change or some normal long term weather pattern. Without ignition there would be no fires.

That said. Some places have experienced hotter than normal temps, lower RH%, lower fuel moistures. Fuel loads are adequate to carry a fire if ignitions occur. When you add in high winds and ignitions the odds are the fire is going to get big.

As far as AZ. What do you expect a 20 degree jump in Temp?

 

[longview]

I will say this one more time. You must have not read all my posts. I do not know if the fires occurring to the last few years are due to climate change or some normal long term weather pattern. Without ignition there would be no fires.

That said. Some places have experienced hotter than normal temps, lower RH%, lower fuel moistures. Fuel loads are adequate to carry a fire if ignitions occur. When you add in high winds and ignitions the odds are the fire is going to get big.

As far as AZ. What do you expect a 20 degree jump in Temp?

If you want to attribute more fires to higher temperatures, you kind of have to have the higher temperatures.
AZ temps have been fairly stable for over 20 years.

 

[Dittohead not!]

What happened to climate being global? Are you asserting that Alaska is not part of the planet Earth? Or you are stating that you live in some leftist fantasy land that has no bearing on reality? Considering how mentally deranged leftist freaks have been for the last fours years, I will assume the later rather than the former.

The climate has absolutely no effect on wildfires, and humans have absolutely no effect on the climate. This AGW nonsense is just leftist stupidity. It also explains why leftist California is fleecing taxpayers by declaring every little fire to be a national emergency. Alaska has had more fires and bigger fires and never once declared a national emergency. California has declared 15 national fire emergencies just this year alone. A stereotypical leftist parasite State.

Climate change does not mean a uniform change throughout the world. It means the average temperature is increasing, and that is driving changes in our complex system of weather makers. Some parts of the world may actually get colder due to wind and ocean currents. Your post shows no understanding of the phenomenon at all. Try reading some actual non political journals sometime so you can understand better the scientific theory of AGW, then read up on what a scientific theory is. Oh, and it has nothing to do with politics other than with some politicians who reject modern science, and not just AGW, but other scientific theories as well.

 

[mike2810]

If you want to attribute more fires to higher temperatures, you kind of have to have the higher temperatures.
AZ temps have been fairly stable for over 20 years.

sigh.
I am not contributing higher temps to more fire. Do you understand anything about fire behavior?
Answer that and we can proceed. If not I believe you are trolling.

 

[Dittohead not!]

Meteorologists are now predicting a much drier than average winter for the west coast. We'll soon see if they're right. If they are, then I dread what next year's fire season will bring and how long it will last. I'm hoping that, instead of laying off fire fighters for the season, they're kept on and assigned to reducing fuel loads and creating fire breaks, but I'm not optimistic. Such a move would mean government actually doing the right thing, and that's pretty rare.

 

[Jack Hays]

Meteorologists are now predicting a much drier than average winter for the west coast. We'll soon see if they're right. If they are, then I dread what next year's fire season will bring and how long it will last. I'm hoping that, instead of laying off fire fighters for the season, they're kept on and assigned to reducing fuel loads and creating fire breaks, but I'm not optimistic. Such a move would mean government actually doing the right thing, and that's pretty rare.

Our nephew and his team have already been stood down for the season.

 

[longview]

sigh.
I am not contributing higher temps to more fire. Do you understand anything about fire behavior?
Answer that and we can proceed. If not I believe you are trolling.

What is being pushed in the media is that the recent increase in fires is cause by climate change,
but without an actual mechanism. We are left to assume it is higher temperatures.
What other attributes of climate change, do you think would cause an increased risk of fires?

 

[mike2810]

What is being pushed in the media is that the recent increase in fires is cause by climate change,
but without an actual mechanism. We are left to assume it is higher temperatures.
What other attributes of climate change, do you think would cause an increased risk of fires?

You did not answer my question.
What do you know about wildfire behavior?

Is temperature one component that effects fire behavior? Yes or No.

 

[Glitch]

Not all of Arizona is desert. We have one of the largest continuous stands forest of Ponderosa Pine.

I take it you did not look at the link I provide. You mentioned your temps have been dropping. I mentioned AZ as it is getting warmer.

Have a good one G. Hope you don't freeze this winter.

Not all of Arizona is experiencing 100°F+ for 145 contiguous days either. The part of Arizona that is experiencing those temperatures for that duration are the deserts, where there are no forests to burn.

Actually, I mentioned the overall national average based on NASA's GISS data. From the data they collected there have been two distinct 30-year warming periods and two distinct 35-year cooling periods. From 1880 until 1915 was the first 35-year cooling period, followed by a 30-year warming period from 1915 until 1945, then another cooling period from 1945 to 1980, and another warming period from 1980 to 2010.

Which is why I said another cooling period began in 2010 and will likely last until 2045, if NASA's GISS temperature cycles holds true. Two periods of warming and cooling is barely a trend, but it is the only data we have. The two warming periods combined (60 years) showed an overall increase of 0.85°C, and the two cooling periods combined (70 years) showed an overal decrease of 0.34°C. Which resulted in a net increase of 0.51°C (0.98°F) between 1880 and 2010.