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There never have been wildfires here....

Jack Hays said:
Decades of mismanagement cannot be undone in a year.
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No, it cannot, but perhaps, just maybe now that the results of mismanagement have become so obvious, better management of national forests and BLM land will become a priority.
 
Dittohead not! said:
No, it cannot, but perhaps, just maybe now that the results of mismanagement have become so obvious, better management of national forests and BLM land will become a priority.
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Sure, we can hope. It is my understanding Feds' options were heretofore limited by restrictive CA policies.
 
Dittohead not! said:
Well, since you asked, here is a layman's summary of the scientific theory of global warming/climate change:






Since that one degree increase has resulted in changes in local climates worldwide, the prediction of up to 4 degrees implies that those changes could become more pronounced.

and, of course, this has happened rather more quickly than natural climate changes of the past, but sure, we can and do look at the past to see just what the results of climate change might be.
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This statement includes the assumption that 100% of the warming observed in the last 140 years,
can be attributed to CO2, which is clearly incorrect. The IPCC themselves mostly discuss warning since 1950.
Such attribution has to include the idea, that it is made by subtracting out the assumed other known contributors.
TSI (Total Solar Intensity) the sunlight striking the top of the atmosphere, increased until 1958, and has been declining
since then, in cycles. TSI is not the whole story however, because solar insolation, the amount of sunlight
that actually reaches the ground, showed massive decreases between 1950 and 1985, followed by substantial brightening
from 1985. Wild 2012.
Link to ENLIGHTENING GLOBAL DIMMING AND BRIGHTENING
"Recent observational evidence suggests that sub-stantial changes in surface solar radiation (SSR; also known as global radiation) indeed occur over time and may profoundly affect our environments. "
The numbers attached to the brightening phase, could account for a substantial portion of the observed warming since 1980.
Mind you, the dimming and brightening were still human caused, just not related to CO2 emissions.
 
Fires Of 1910
Posted on October 12, 2020 by tonyheller
This week in 1910, forest fires in the upper Midwest and Canada killed more than 1,000 people. The temperature at Forestburg, South Dakota on October 11, 1910 was 100 degrees. That year was one of only three years with temperatures over 100 degrees in the Midwest this late in the year. The other two years were 1920 and 1947.
On October 7 a forest fire raged out of control across Lake of the Woods County, Minnesota, leveling everything in its path.
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Baudette fire of 1910 – Wikipedia

23 Oct 1910, 6 – Monterey Daily Cypress and Monterey American at Newspapers.com
A few weeks earlier was the largest forest fire in US history, along the Idaho/Montana border.

The 1910 Fires – Forest History Society
March of 1910 was the warmest on record in the US and the snow melted very early, which led to the massive fires later in the year. . . .
 
Jack Hays said:
Sure, we can hope. It is my understanding Feds' options were heretofore limited by restrictive CA policies.
Click to expand...
The problem with that is that the fires are not just in California, nor is the overgrown forest mismanagement.

But, there is no doubt plenty of blame to go around, including the federal government.
On the other side, there is a small town near here, in the forest just like Paradise, surrounded by privately owned forest land that has had crews working on clearing it since the drought killed all those trees years ago. That town is still intact.

With the forest as dry as it is, proper management and maintenance is more important than ever.
 
longview said:
This statement includes the assumption that 100% of the warming observed in the last 140 years,
can be attributed to CO2, which is clearly incorrect. The IPCC themselves mostly discuss warning since 1950.
Such attribution has to include the idea, that it is made by subtracting out the assumed other known contributors.
TSI (Total Solar Intensity) the sunlight striking the top of the atmosphere, increased until 1958, and has been declining
since then, in cycles. TSI is not the whole story however, because solar insolation, the amount of sunlight
that actually reaches the ground, showed massive decreases between 1950 and 1985, followed by substantial brightening
from 1985. Wild 2012.
Link to ENLIGHTENING GLOBAL DIMMING AND BRIGHTENING
"Recent observational evidence suggests that sub-stantial changes in surface solar radiation (SSR; also known as global radiation) indeed occur over time and may profoundly affect our environments. "
The numbers attached to the brightening phase, could account for a substantial portion of the observed warming since 1980.
Mind you, the dimming and brightening were still human caused, just not related to CO2 emissions.
Click to expand...
Scientific thought currently is that, absent the build up of CO2, we'd be in a cooling phase currently. But, you do have a point. It's not just CO2, but methane and water vapor as well.
 
Dittohead not! said:
Scientific thought currently is that, absent the build up of CO2, we'd be in a cooling phase currently. But, you do have a point. It's not just CO2, but methane and water vapor as well.
Click to expand...
I do not think the timing of the end of the current inter glacial period, is part of any scientific consensus.
Also it is not just the greenhouse gasses, they are only part of the equation.
The amount of available sunlight reaching the ground has increased quite a bit since the mid 1980's.
Earth's energy imbalance, can be described as the energy in, minus the energy out,
An increase on the energy in, would have the same effect on imbalance as a reduction in energy out.
 
Jack Hays said:
California's Wildfire History - in one map
perimeters of wildfires that have burned in California from 1878 to 2018 using data from the California Department ... if there is very little of California that has not been touched by wildfire. Large areas of desert in
no issue with the wind farms killing off our California golden eagles - soon to be extinct.
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Soon to be extinct? Nope.
www.nationalgeographic.com

Golden Eagle | National Geographic

Meet a powerful predator that swoops down on its prey from above. Learn about the efforts to protect Mexico’s national bird.
www.nationalgeographic.com www.nationalgeographic.com
 
Dittohead not! said:
the New England Journal of Medicine? What do they have to do with AGW theory? Without even opening this link, I can see that it's on a par with WUWT and other non scientific sites.
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". . . The NEJM paper, titled “Wildfires, Global Climate Change, and Human Health,” claims recent years have produced “fires of unprecedented scale and duration — including wildfires in Australia in 2019 to 2020, the Amazon rainforest in Brazil in 2019 and 2020, the western United States in 2018 and 2020, and British Columbia, Canada, in 2017 and 2018.”. . . "
 
Dittohead not! said:
...until now.



link

But it's all about mismanagement of forests. Global climate change couldn't possibly be contributing to wildfires, since that's just a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese to keep us from being competitive. Trump himself said so, so it must be true.
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Human encroachment is hard.

Get used to it.
 
Dittohead not! said:
The problem with that is that the fires are not just in California, nor is the overgrown forest mismanagement.

But, there is no doubt plenty of blame to go around, including the federal government.
On the other side, there is a small town near here, in the forest just like Paradise, surrounded by privately owned forest land that has had crews working on clearing it since the drought killed all those trees years ago. That town is still intact.

With the forest as dry as it is, proper management and maintenance is more important than ever.
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Not much to disagree with.
A family story: Our nephew is a federal smoke jumper and EMT based in Boise, ID. He and his team deployed to CA to assist. They jumped onto a rocky ridge line and did their thing, but promised resupplies of food & water never came. Nor did promised horses & pack mules for exit. After boiling creek water to drink, the team hiked out 30 miles with their 80-pound packs. Meanwhile, it turns out a Cal Fire team not far away was fully supplied and packed out. The boys from ID may be less enthusiastic next year, but they're feds, so they go where they're sent.
 
Jack Hays said:
The wildfire history link does not mention eagles.
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I replied to someone saying Golden Eagles were almost extinct, not in a link, but in a comment. Must be operator error on my part.
 
Jack Hays said:
Decades of mismanagement cannot be undone in a year.
Click to expand...


Yet you're against correction of the mismanagement of CO2 emission in any yr and support a president that thinks raking the forest floor is the solution to preventing wildfire that you say isn't an increased problem due to AGW in the first place, anyway.
 
bluesmoke said:
Yet you're against correction of the mismanagement of CO2 emission in any yr and support a president that thinks raking the forest floor is the solution to preventing wildfire that you say isn't an increased problem due to AGW in the first place, anyway.
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"Raking the forest floor" was his fumbling way to describe the brush clearing that's essential. You are correct that I don't believe CO2 presents any sort of emergency or that AGW has had anything to do with wildfires.
 
If_trees_could_talk_Josh.jpg


Friday Funny: Josh on the green tree deal
 
Jack Hays said:
"Raking the forest floor" was his fumbling way to describe the brush clearing that's essential. You are correct that I don't believe CO2 presents any sort of emergency or that AGW has had anything to do with wildfires.
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Brush clearing is a small part of preventing wildfire from starting and spreading. More than half of the fed budget is spent on fighting wildfire than on forest mgmnt. GW makes for drier, hotter air and drier, hotter brush and trees (fuel), even hotter ground and thus more easily caused fire and faster, hotter spread of wildfire, regardless of cause. You say 50% of GW is caused by man, so I find it hard to believe that you can say AGW has had anything to do with wildfires. If you don’t believe CO2 presents an “emergency”, then what does it present?

Even when it takes post after post to get you to take a nothing more than mugwump position, you still wriggle out.
 
bluesmoke said:
Brush clearing is a small part of preventing wildfire from starting and spreading. More than half of the fed budget is spent on fighting wildfire than on forest mgmnt. GW makes for drier, hotter air and drier, hotter brush and trees (fuel), even hotter ground and thus more easily caused fire and faster, hotter spread of wildfire, regardless of cause. You say 50% of GW is caused by man, so I find it hard to believe that you can say AGW has had anything to do with wildfires. If you don’t believe CO2 presents an “emergency”, then what does it present?

Even when it takes post after post to get you to take a nothing more than mugwump position, you still wriggle out.
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CO2 is not a climate problem. And drought hasn't really been an issue either.


New Video Demolishes Claims of Megadrought in U.S. West
Drought April 24, 20200
Tony Heller, who operates the website RealClimateScience.com, has posted a powerful four-minute video absolutely destroying claims that the western United States is currently experiencing...

No, Warming Is Not Causing a Megadrought in the U.S. West
Drought April 19, 20202
The establishment media is hyping a new paper claiming climate change is contributing to a megadrought throughout the western United States. Federal government data...
 
Jack Hays said:
CO2 is not a climate problem. And drought hasn't really been an issue either.


New Video Demolishes Claims of Megadrought in U.S. West
Drought April 24, 20200
Tony Heller, who operates the website RealClimateScience.com, has posted a powerful four-minute video absolutely destroying claims that the western United States is currently experiencing...

No, Warming Is Not Causing a Megadrought in the U.S. West
Drought April 19, 20202
The establishment media is hyping a new paper claiming climate change is contributing to a megadrought throughout the western United States. Federal government data...
Click to expand...


You really should quit reading those anti science blogs and begin to look at the real world. Realscience and What's Up With That don't base their writing on science. They're totally biased, have an obvious agenda, and so do not reflect the real world.
 
Dittohead not! said:
You really should quit reading those anti science blogs and begin to look at the real world. Realscience and What's Up With That don't base their writing on science. They're totally biased, have an obvious agenda, and so do not reflect the real world.
Click to expand...
Perhaps you would like to dispute the evidence rather than merely attack the messenger?
 
Jack Hays said:
Wildfires
Restoring California’s forests to reduce wildfire risks will take time, billions of dollars and a broad commitment
As California contends with its worst wildfire season in history, it’s more evident than ever that land management practices in the state’s forested mountains need major changes.
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" In recent years, climate warming, accumulation of dead wood on the forest floor and a buildup of small trees – which serve as “ladder fuels,” moving fire from the forest floor up into the canopy – have led to hotter, larger wildfires. " ............................

" A warming climate is intensifying risks to forests that are already stressed by wildfires, drought and pests. Sustaining California’s iconic mountain forests requires acknowledging the multiple values they provide, and including the many groups who benefit from them in finding and implementing solutions. "

I don't disagree with most of what the "engineer's" have stated in their article. I would have preferred a forester and fire ecologist in addressing the issue of forest health. The paper dances around climate change and calls it climate warming.

I have said before that i know know if its climate change or part of a normal weather change on earth. When you have drought, high temperature, low relative humidity, low fuel moistures, high winds, and heavy fuel loads and an ignition occurs, there is a good chance the fire is going to be bad.

Was never a smokejumper, but did spend a few years on a hot shot crew before moving up the wildfire management organization. Have a lot of respect of firefighters willing to jump out of perfectly good aircraft. Have a good one.
 
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