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The Weak Foundation of Calls for Climate Action

It was warmer before.


Modern Ancient Temperatures

OK, no need to torture me, I confess it—I’m a data junkie. And when I see a new (to me at least) high-resolution dataset, my knees get weak. Case in point? The temperature dataset of the Colle Gnifetti ice core. It has a two-year resolution thanks to some new techniques. Better, it stretches clear back…
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Sorry, but you can't "debunk" with errors.

I do not criticize Mann for "using just 1 proxy temperature record." I criticize him for including the one type of record PNAS recommended should be avoided. And that one type, btw, is essential to create the hockey stick.

As for the rest of your post, in Bob Dylan's words: "Don't criticize what you can't understand."
 
[h=2]Hottest summers in the last 2000 years were during Roman times[/h]
[h=3]There’s a reason the Romans wore Togas[/h]A new study near Sicily shows the sea surface temperatures were a whole two degrees Celsius warmer then. The worst-case scenario of the Paris Agreement has already happened, and it was nearly 2,000 years ago. And instead of being a baked-earth apocalypse, the Roman empire flourished during the warmth and declined as it cooled.
Time to burn oil and Make Rome Great Again?
[h=4]The expansion of the Roman Empire coincided with the warmest period in the Mediterranean of the last 2,000 years.[/h]Probably just a coincidence. /
A formanifera with the awkward name of Globigerinoides ruber apparently likes to live near the sea surface around 10 to 50 m down. Depending on the temperature, it ends up with slightly different ratios of calcium and magnesium. At some point it dies, sinks and sits in a mud layer on the sea floor 475m below. Eventually, for this lucky mud, someone digs it out and analyses it. This new study suggests the Mediteranean warmed up during Roman times from AD 1 to AD 500.
This was the Roman Climatic Optimum — an era we are spending trillions to avoid.
The researchers suggest that cooling and drying conditions helped bring down the Roman Empire. Though, judging by the current state of civilization, it appears vandals can work with any kind of weather.
Obviously this study related to the area near Italy, but other studies show the Roman era was warmer in Antarctica, Greenland, Venezuela, North America, Alaska, South Africa, China, and the Atlantic Ocean.
… Click to enlarge.
The media’s take on this is not to take the obvious headlines like, say, Rome was once hotter than now — man-made climate change is irrelevant. OR:

Climate change has happened before. So What?
Instead this new study is a reminder of how climate can alter the course of civilization. That serves two purposes. It bolsters the sense that climate change is all doom and gloom, and Very Important. Secondly, it distracts people from looking at other reasons that Roman civilization collapsed — like corruption, complacency and currency inflation.
Press Release: Universitat De Barcelona
The greatest time of the Roman Empire coincided with the warmest period of the last 2,000 years in the Mediterranean, according to a study published in the journal Scientific Reports, from the Nature group. The climate conditions derived progressively towards arid conditions and later colder ones coinciding with the historical fall of the empire. . . .
Keep reading →
[h=4]http://joannenova.com.au/2020/07/ho...000-years-were-during-roman-times/#more-72231[/h]
 
Climate Alarmist Claim Blown to Smithereens: Unlikely That Warm Arctic Leads To Cold Winters
By P Gosselin on 25. July 2020
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By Die kalte Sonne
Do you remember the wild story that cold winters in Central Europe are supposedly a consequence of the Arctic turbo-heating? A great sideshow hypothesis in those years when winters were suddenly colder than expected.
A study by Dai & Song 2020 has now brought the idea back to the realm of fable. There’s nothing to it. Abstract:
Little influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude climate
Observations1,2,3 and model simulations3,4 show enhanced warming in the Arctic under increasing greenhouse gases, a phenomenon known as the Arctic amplification (AA)5, that is likely caused by sea-ice loss1,3. AA reduces meridional temperature gradients linked to circulation, thus mid-latitude weather and climate changes have been attributed to AA, often on the basis of regression analysis and atmospheric simulations6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19. However, other modelling studies20,21,22 show only a weak link. This inconsistency may result from deficiencies in separating the effects of AA from those of natural variability or background warming. Here, using coupled model simulations with and without AA, we show that cold-season precipitation, snowfall and circulation changes over northern mid-latitudes come mostly from background warming. . . . These results suggest that the climatic impacts of AA are probably small outside the high latitudes, thus caution is needed in attributing mid-latitude changes to AA and sea-ice loss on the basis of statistical analyses that cannot distinguish the impact of AA from other correlated changes.”
 
How arrogant you are to think your opinion, which is just your own confirmation bias, is debunking something...

Why don't you try addressing my argument instead of just trash-talking?

Oh, that's right... you are all talk and no proof.
 
Why don't you try addressing my argument instead of just trash-talking?

Oh, that's right... you are all talk and no proof.

If you think you had a valid argument, please restate it. You did not debunk it in your post you linked.

Please explain why you think you did...
 
If you think you had a valid argument, please restate it. You did not debunk it in your post you linked.

Please explain why you think you did...

I have made several arguments debunking Jack and Eschenbach's BS including some more tonight.

Now, why don't you address the arguments I am making instead of just trolling me to do all the work yet again?
 
I have made several arguments debunking Jack and Eschenbach's BS including some more tonight.

Now, why don't you address the arguments I am making instead of just trolling me to do all the work yet again?

Arguments that have no merit.
 
[h=2]Data From 2 Independent Studies Show No Correlation Between CO2 And Temperature[/h]By P Gosselin on 29. July 2020
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German climatologist Professor Dr. Horst-Joachim Lüdecke recently took data from two independent studies and superimposed them. The result shows the long claimed atmospheric CO2-global temperature correlation doesn’t exist.
The first data set was global temperature anomaly going back 600 million years, taken from the results of a paper by Came and Veizer, appearing in Nature (2007) and plotted below (blue):

The second data set was of atmospheric CO2 going back 600 million years, taken from a published study by Berner (2003), also appearing in Nature. These data are plotted in the above chart in blue.
No correlation
The plots were combined in the above chart to see how well they correlated, if at all. The result: no correlation.
For example, as the chart shows, 150 million years ago the atmospheric CO2 concentration was over 2000 ppm, which is 5 times today’s atmospheric concentration of 410 ppm – a level that some climate scientists say is already “dangerously high”. Yet, the global temperature 150 million years ago was more than 2°C below the long-term mean.
450 million years ago the relationship was even far more on its head: atmospheric CO2 concentrations were more than 10 times today’s level, yet the global temperature was a frigid 3.5°C below the mean!
“There’s no correlation between earth temperature and CO2,” Prof. Lüdecke concludes, observing recorded data.
 
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[h=1]The Dangers of Narrative Journalism[/h][FONT=&quot]“Some Narrative Journalism Concerns: One of the biggest worries editors and publishers have about narrative journalism is that because it’s a blend of facts and feelings, problems can occur. Recently, many authors have been nabbed for stating mistruths in their pieces….”
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[FONT="][URL="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/31/the-dangers-of-narrative-journalism/"]
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[h=1]The Dangers of Narrative Journalism[/h][FONT="][FONT=inherit]“Some Narrative Journalism Concerns: One of the biggest worries editors and publishers have about narrative journalism is that because it’s a blend of facts and feelings, problems can occur. Recently, many authors have been nabbed for stating mistruths in their pieces….”[/FONT]
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The cut and paste war continues. I will be sure to continue to fill up the threads with my own tomorrow
 
[h=2]New Study: Rising CO2 Drives Post-1980s Greening…Which Cools The Earth And Offsets 29% Of Human Emissions[/h]By Kenneth Richard on 6. August 2020
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[h=4]About 70% of the Earth’s post-1980s vegetative greening trend has been driven by CO2 fertilization. More greening has offset or reversed 29% of recent anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Greening also has a net cooling effect on surface temperatures.[/h]Earlier this year we highlighted a study (Haverd et al., 2020) asserting rising CO2 and warming are the dominiant drivers of Earth’s strong post-1980s greening trend. This greening expands Earth’s carbon sink so profoundly that by 2100 the greening of the Earth will offset 17 years (equivalent) of anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
A 17% offset over 80 years, or net CO2 emissions reversal, would easily supplant the effectiveness of Paris climate accord CO2 mitigation policies.
Greening-driven-by-rising-CO2-and-warming-carbon-sink-to-grow-by-2100-Haverd-2020.jpg

[h=6]Image Source: Haverd et al., 2020[/h]
 
I think the main reason why climate alarmists have become so loud and strident lately is because they are aware (even if only subconsciously) how insubstantial is the actual data case for the extreme measures they advocate. A new paper explains this in some detail.


How much human-caused global warming should we expect?

By Andy May OMG! The world is going to end, and we caused it. This story, in one form or another, goes back to biblical times. According to Genesis (6:9 to 9:17) God decided that humans had sinned too much and must be punished, so he called up a great flood to destroy the world.…
38 mins ago March 21, 2020 in Climate News, IPCC AR5 Report.

". . . Connolly, Connolly, Carter and Soon have written a new paper (Connolly, et al. 2020) examining the IPCC predictions the UNFCCC used to construct the Paris Agreement. We will refer to their paper as “C3S20.” While the paper has just been published, it has been a work-in-progress for some time. Dr. Robert M. Carter passed away on January 19, 2016, but he did a considerable amount of work on an earlier version of the paper.
C3S20 asks, how much human-caused warming will occur if we do nothing, that is, continue “business-as-usual?” It’s unfortunate, but the IPCC, for all their work, do not adequately answer that question, their projections are all based on abstract “scenarios.”. . .
As we see by reading C3S20, the 2.0°C limit idea in the UNFCCC Paris Agreement is very flawed. The agreement does not define the preindustrial starting point, either as a temperature or a greenhouse concentration. It is not even defined in time. The effect of human-emitted greenhouse gases is not known accurately enough. This is clearly seen in Figure 2. The error in warming estimates for 2020, is larger than the total surface warming since 1850. Finally, there have been no observed problems with warming or greenhouse gas emissions. The net impacts of warming and higher greenhouse gas concentrations have been positive to date according to the economists that have studied the issue. Further, the impacts are likely to remain positive for some time to come.
The 2.0°C limit is arbitrary and subjective (Mahony 2015) and has no starting point. There is no way to accurately project the effects of the emissions the UNFCCC seeks to control, and two degrees of warming is just as likely to be beneficial as harmful. Further, we have no idea how natural forces will affect future climate, will they contribute to warming or work in the opposite way? There are studies that point both ways. See here and here. . . ."


Verry interesting. Using a 2014 study and then referencing an author pay-to-publish "paper" about how its all just an giant overreaction to bad science.

Somehow it just doesn't seem to be very compelling or convincing despite the quackery.
 
Verry interesting. Using a 2014 study and then referencing an author pay-to-publish "paper" about how its all just an giant overreaction to bad science.

Somehow it just doesn't seem to be very compelling or convincing despite the quackery.

“The man who is striving to solve a problem defined by existing knowledge and technique is not, however, just looking around. He knows what he wants to achieve, and he designs his instruments and directs his thoughts accordingly. Unanticipated novelty, the new discovery, can emerge only to the extent that his anticipations about nature and his instruments prove wrong. . . . There is no other effective way in which discoveries might be generated.”
Thomas S. Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions
 
“The man who is striving to solve a problem defined by existing knowledge and technique is not, however, just looking around. He knows what he wants to achieve, and he designs his instruments and directs his thoughts accordingly. Unanticipated novelty, the new discovery, can emerge only to the extent that his anticipations about nature and his instruments prove wrong. . . . There is no other effective way in which discoveries might be generated.”
Thomas S. Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions


Yep and that explains all kinds of invention by accident throughout history. It does nothing to address the problem of corporate "for hire" quackery. Its quite rampant what with all those special interests running around. Apparently in this regard you've drunk the koolaid.
 
Yep and that explains all kinds of invention by accident throughout history. It does nothing to address the problem of corporate "for hire" quackery. Its quite rampant what with all those special interests running around. Apparently in this regard you've drunk the koolaid.

You'll need to explain yourself. "Corporate for hire quackery" is not something I'm familiar with.
 
“The man who is striving to solve a problem defined by existing knowledge and technique is not, however, just looking around. He knows what he wants to achieve, and he designs his instruments and directs his thoughts accordingly. Unanticipated novelty, the new discovery, can emerge only to the extent that his anticipations about nature and his instruments prove wrong. . . . There is no other effective way in which discoveries might be generated.”
Thomas S. Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions

This is an intriguing one.

In some ways we are limited by our measurement systems.

In your experience of the "history of science" can you point out an example of how our "measurement systems" failed us so badly as to keep something from being discovered?

I can think of things that, in fact, are nearly undetectable that we figured out were there! Take the history of the neutrino. Basically it fell out of the mathematics and it helped Pauli explain the conservation of mass, energy, momentum and spin during beta decay. From later work by Fermi and Dirac a more full concept arose but no detection. Neutrinos interact weakly with matter. To the point that there's a constant stream of neutrinos sailing through the earth every second of the day as if the earth weren't even there.

Researchers set to finding it, though. And it was discovered in 1942.

So here's a great example of a sort of "revolution" based on something we had almost no real ability to detect! (Obviously we had to find a way to detect it, "beta capture", but you get the point. It is still very hard to detect because of its weak interaction with matter.


In reality scientific discoveries are not as simple as "Dr. X walks into a lab and turns on his detectorizer and waits for science to happen!" No they arise from a deeper theoretical understanding coupled with physical measurement. Sometimes they come in a different order.
 
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