The US coronavirus death toll is projected to reach 410,000 in the next 4 months if mask use wanes

[JacksinPA]

US coronavirus: Death toll is projected to reach 410,000 in the next 4 months - CNN

CNN)More than 410,000 people in the US could die from the coronavirus by January 1, more than doubling the current death toll, a new model often cited by top health officials predicted Friday.

That would mean 224,000 more lives lost in the US over the next four months.

Near-universal mask use could cut the number of projected additional fatalities by more than half, according to the model from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. But it also warns the cumulative death toll could be much higher by the new year if all restrictions are eased.
"If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, meaning no further government intervention is taken from now to Jan 1st, the death toll could increase to 620,000," according to IHME's briefing.
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Dr. Atlas' herd immunity strategy would cost at least another 210,000 lives by January 1.

 

[Metric Mouse]

US coronavirus: Death toll is projected to reach 410,000 in the next 4 months - CNN

CNN)More than 410,000 people in the US could die from the coronavirus by January 1, more than doubling the current death toll, a new model often cited by top health officials predicted Friday.

That would mean 224,000 more lives lost in the US over the next four months.

Near-universal mask use could cut the number of projected additional fatalities by more than half, according to the model from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. But it also warns the cumulative death toll could be much higher by the new year if all restrictions are eased.
"If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, meaning no further government intervention is taken from now to Jan 1st, the death toll could increase to 620,000," according to IHME's briefing.
====================================================
Dr. Atlas' herd immunity strategy would cost at least another 210,000 lives by January 1.

So even with near universal mask usage, they are still predicting 1,000 deaths a day for the next four months? That's what we're at now. Depressing that it wouldn't get better.

 

[lwf]

So even with near universal mask usage, they are still predicting 1,000 deaths a day for the next four months? That's what we're at now. Depressing that it wouldn't get better.

Welcome to the worst pandemic in a century.

 

[JacksinPA]

So even with near universal mask usage, they are still predicting 1,000 deaths a day for the next four months? That's what we're at now. Depressing that it wouldn't get better.

This virus is very contagious. And mask use seems to have become discretionary, adding to the potential for spread.

The promised vaccine is problematical in that it is a lot of political hype & promised to be less than 50% effective. It will also take the better part of a year to inoculate even a decent segment of the population, with many refusing to take it, at least until it is proven safe & effective.

 

[JacksinPA]

Welcome to the worst pandemic in a century.

Interestingly, this one is no where near as bad as the H1N1 Spanish Flu, which came on in waves.

 

[noonereal]

So even with near universal mask usage, they are still predicting 1,000 deaths a day for the next four months? That's what we're at now. Depressing that it wouldn't get better.

and we are still reacting to the virus worse than any other country on earth

 

[Metric Mouse]

This virus is very contagious. And mask use seems to have become discretionary, adding to the potential for spread.

The promised vaccine is problematical in that it is a lot of political hype & promised to be less than 50% effective. It will also take the better part of a year to inoculate even a decent segment of the population, with many refusing to take it, at least until it is proven safe & effective.

Yes, but the study stated that their model predicted 1,000 deaths a day with mask usage. Which means many more without universal mask usage, which seems unlikely. It's depressing that they predict we are at the Lower end of deaths per day that we will be seeing through the end of the year, with no way to reduce it from where we are now.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Yes, but the study stated that their model predicted 1,000 deaths a day with mask usage.

When has the US public ever practiced mask usage with universal compliance?

A recent study featured in WAPO yesterday says mask usage to a great degree depends on the political party your state governor belongs to.

 

[Metric Mouse]

When has the US public ever practiced mask usage with universal compliance?

A recent study featured in WAPO yesterday says mask usage to a great degree depends on the political party your state governor belongs to.

It hasn't. That's the point. Right now there are 1,000 deaths a day without universal mask usage- and that number is the BEST case scenario in the model. So it'll be worse.