The true state of the Russian economy after 1 year of war with the West

PoS said:

Interesting video with Dr. Sonnenfeld. For those in the TLDR crowd, here is a summary:

- According to the IMF and World Bank, Russia's economy contracted by only 2% last year, but Sonnenfeld claims this is untrue, because all the metrics are being manipulated by Russia.
- In fact, Russia's economy is in an actually worse state than advertised. Auto industry is down 99%. Retail down 65%.
- The reason why the ruble is holding steady, is because no one outside of Russia wants to buy it, so there is no forex or even a black market, and the current rate is determined by fiat.
- The real reason why the Russian stock exchange didnt go down to 0 (after it lost 60% of its value) is because all the remaining foreign investments are frozen and cannot be sold off
- The foreign companies who left Russia actually regained all their losses, while the companies still in there face uncertainty, so its better to leave than stay.
- Russia is losing money by selling oil to India and China, because it costs more for them to produce and transport it than the price it is being paid for by these countries
- Russia cannot sell LNG to Asia at profit because there are no pipelines, and it costs a lot to transport it.

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anatta said:

Putin oversees launch of Siberian gas field feeding pipeline to China

Russian President Vladimir Putin presided over the launch of a major new Siberian gas field on Wednesday to help drive a planned surge in supply to China.

www.reuters.com

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PoS said:

Let's see if that pipeline even gets completed...

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PoS said:

Let's see if that pipeline even gets completed...

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anatta said:

why would it not get completed. The US isnt going to blow it up like Nordstream
~~
Russia started selling natural gas to China at the end of 2019 via the Power of Siberia pipeline, which supplied about 10 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas in 2021 and is due to reach its full capacity of 38 bcm in 2025. Russia is now Beijing's No. 3 gas supplier.

In February, Putin reached an agreement to sell an additional 10 bcm of gas to China from Russia's Far East through a new, smaller pipeline to China's northeast.

Russia also plans to construct another major pipeline, the Power of Siberia 2, via Mongolia with a view to selling an additional 50 bcm of gas per year.

Putin said last week the projects would allow Russia to boost its gas sales to China to 48 bcm annually by 2025 and to 88 bcm by 2030.

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PoS said:

nteresting video with Dr. Sonnenfeld. For those in the TLDR crowd, here is a summary:

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ALiberalModerate said:

Russia is a low income country with rampant corruption at all levels, that is why it is not likely to be completed even absent sanctions. As it is, if it does get completed, it will be entirely with Chinese money.

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anatta said:

why would it not get completed. The US isnt going to blow it up like Nordstream
~~
Russia started selling natural gas to China at the end of 2019 via the Power of Siberia pipeline, which supplied about 10 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas in 2021 and is due to reach its full capacity of 38 bcm in 2025. Russia is now Beijing's No. 3 gas supplier.

In February, Putin reached an agreement to sell an additional 10 bcm of gas to China from Russia's Far East through a new, smaller pipeline to China's northeast.

Russia also plans to construct another major pipeline, the Power of Siberia 2, via Mongolia with a view to selling an additional 50 bcm of gas per year.

Putin said last week the projects would allow Russia to boost its gas sales to China to 48 bcm annually by 2025 and to 88 bcm by 2030.

Click to expand...

PoS said:

Interesting video with Dr. Sonnenfeld. For those in the TLDR crowd, here is a summary:

- According to the IMF and World Bank, Russia's economy contracted by only 2% last year, but Sonnenfeld claims this is untrue, because all the metrics are being manipulated by Russia.
- In fact, Russia's economy is in an actually worse state than advertised. Auto industry is down 99%. Retail down 65%.
- The reason why the ruble is holding steady, is because no one outside of Russia wants to buy it, so there is no forex or even a black market, and the current rate is determined by fiat.
- The real reason why the Russian stock exchange didnt go down to 0 (after it lost 60% of its value) is because all the remaining foreign investments are frozen and cannot be sold off
- The foreign companies who left Russia actually regained all their losses, while the companies still in there face uncertainty, so its better to leave than stay.
- Russia is losing money by selling oil to India and China, because it costs more for them to produce and transport it than the price it is being paid for by these countries
- Russia cannot sell LNG to Asia at profit because there are no pipelines, and it costs a lot to transport it.

Click to expand...

phoenix2020 said:

Just want to say that one data point is flat out wrong, the auto industry being down 99%. That was true in the first month or two. Now it is up to a bit less than half the pre-invasion level—still dire but a far way from 99%. That said, this came as a result of making components like air bags and seatbelt pre-tensioners optional. In short, they’re building cars again, they just aren’t very good.

Russia's car sales slump continues, down 61.6% y/y in November

Russia's automobile market slump extended into November, the Association of European Businesses (AEB) said on Tuesday, with sales of new cars down 61.6% year-on-year, as the struggling sector feels the strain of sanctions and subdued demand.

www.reuters.com

As the article hints, there is significant production of Chinese vehicle designs under Russian nameplates, with Chinese parts.

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