• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

The Tigray crisis

J

joluoto

DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 8, 2020
Messages
11,879
Reaction score
6,909
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Progressive
Things just look grimmer and grimmer.
Tigray crisis: Why Ethiopia is spiralling out of control

The crisis has it roots with the overthrow of Mengistu and how Ethiopia has been ruled since, as well as tensions between a resurgent central government and the autonomous ethnic regions, especially the Tigrayans.
 
joluoto said:
Things just look grimmer and grimmer.
Tigray crisis: Why Ethiopia is spiralling out of control

The crisis has it roots with the overthrow of Mengistu and how Ethiopia has been ruled since, as well as tensions between a resurgent central government and the autonomous ethnic regions, especially the Tigrayans.
Click to expand...
I see you had already posted the FP link

This will go sideways quickly - war or dialogue pressured by the west/Sudan- problem is that locks in corruption
Leaders all walk away free and rich
 
Caspain Report's analysis is grim. There are risks for a prolonged ethnic conflict and other regional powers being dragged in.

 
The backlash from the Tigray crisis is hitting Ethiopia hard. And it's not just Germany, many western countries are reevaluating their relations with Ethiopia. This is something Ethiopia can ill afford. They are in need of continued Western capital for their development projects.

German-Ethiopian relations suffer over Tigray
 
Very real threat that Ethiopia might very well cease to exist as a state.
 
Jredbaron96 said:
Very real threat that Ethiopia might very well cease to exist as a state.
Click to expand...


I did not know it was as bad as that. I read up an article that some rebel movements are some 200 kilometers, it may be miles, from Addis Abbaba. And that there is increasing alarm
 
I think I should refresh people here a bit on Ethiopian political history a bit to make sense on what's going on in Ethiopia.

So I will start with the formation of an alliance of various resistance movements against Marxist dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam called the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Fron (EPRDF), that was formed in 1989. The leading party in that alliance was the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), that had resisted Mengistu since the 70s. As the name suggest it was a Tigray based movement, building it's identity Tigrayan ethnicity, regionalism and a Marxist- Leninist outlook (yes this was very much Communists fighting other Communists). In 1991 aided by Eritrean rebels the EPRDF was succesful in overthrowing Mengistu (with the help of Eritrean rebels, leading to Eritrea's independence). The TPLF leader Meles Zenawi became the leading figure of the new Ethiopia (first President, then Prime Minister). Ethiopia was transfered into a decentralized state divided in ethnic regions. The Marxist- Leninist part of EPRDF's ideology was officially dropped due to the collapse of the USSR, but especially TPLF was considered to still values it's left wing roots. Ethiopia also remained something of a One Party State, where the local EPRDF affiliated party dominated local politics, and EPRDF dominated national politics. Zenawi also became more and more authoritarian over the years. When Zenawi died in 2012, TPLF was weakened, but still considered the most dominant party within the EPRDF, mostly for historical reasons as it's founder. Officially Ehtiopia was a multiparty democracy, but opposition parties had very little chance of any real influence.

Then in 2018 Abiy Ahmed became chairman of the EPRDF and thus Prime Minister. He represents a will to centralize the dencentralized structure of the Ethiopian state, and in 2019 he dissolves EPRDF and all the constutuent parties except TPLF joined his new party, The Prosperity Party. Before that he had been able to finally negotiate a peace agreement with the Totalitarian neighbor next door: Eritrea, and for that he got the Nobel Peace Price. His rule has been rocky though, all over Ethiopia there has been protests and outbursts of violence, in 2019 there was a failed region coup attempt in Amhara, where the President of the region was assassinated, and later the alleged leader of the coup also fell to an assassin's bullet. But nothing has been rockier than relations with the Tigray region. The Prosperity party or movements closely allied with them were in power in every region except Tigray where TPLF still held. Tigray also saw incursions from Eritrea that the Ethiopian government did little to try to stop. In September 2020 Tigray held regional elections despite Addis Abeba ordering them to postpone due to Covid. TPLF of course dominated the elections and retained it's absolute majority. Addis refused to recognize the elections and called them illegal. Ethiopia started to move forces to the region in October, which triggered many TPLF militiamen, and from a Tigrayan perspective it looked like an invasion. Then TPLF in early November stopped a general appointed by Abiy from taking his post and launched an attack on the Ethiopian army. And the crisis begun. Since then the Eritreans has become involved as well as several militias of different ethnic groups (both militias backina Abiy and militias backing TPLF). And all has commited war crimes and crimes against humanity.

​

 
New Caspian Report analysis on Ethiopia.

 
is this at all connected to Egypt getting pissed off about Ethiopia's dams on the Nile?
Just askin
 
fortune said:
is this at all connected to Egypt getting pissed off about Ethiopia's dams on the Nile?
Just askin
Click to expand...


Not from any reports I have read, Egypt could be providing support to Tigray very covertly
 
fortune said:
is this at all connected to Egypt getting pissed off about Ethiopia's dams on the Nile?
Just askin
Click to expand...
Egypt doesn't seem to be involved, though they probably don't really mind Ethiopia exploding.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom