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The Terrible Truth So Many Experts Missed About Russia

Rogue Valley

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The Terrible Truth So Many Experts Missed About Russia

iu

2.28.22
The belief that Vladimir Putin was bluffing, that he would never give the order for the nearly 200,000-man army he had spent months amassing on the borders of Ukraine to invade, persisted as late as 5:45am Moscow time the day of the attack, when, grimacing in a red tie, Russia’s ruler of almost 23 years announced in a pre-recorded statement what he called “a special military operation.” This was not just a shock on American political Twitter. It was a shock to many of the leading experts and policymakers in the United States, Europe, and even in Ukraine. The head of German intelligence was so caught off guard that he was still in Kyiv and had to be evacuated. “I cannot believe this is being done in your name,” said British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, trying to address for a moment, the Russian people, “or that you really want the pariah status it will bring to the Putin regime.” However, that phrase — “the Putin regime” — which has been stuck to all discussions of Russian politics now for almost twenty years, in some ways itself helps explain why so many people who believed they understood the country turned out to be so wrong about the Ukraine conflict.

It has become clear that what exists inside the Kremlin is no longer a “regime” at all—a system of government where multiple figures can impact and feed-into decision making, from security chiefs to billionaires—as many believed. Instead, it has transformed into what political scientists call a personalist dictatorship, where the whims of one man, and one man only, determine policy, a fact that has terrifying implications for Russia and the world. The political science literature suggests that personalist dictatorships are more erratic and dangerous to the outside world than other sorts of autocracies. A key reason that many wise foreign policy hands thought Russia was bluffing about an invasion was that they assumed Putin wasn’t making his decisions alone. This assumption informed much of Western strategy. Experts believed that threatening Russian oligarchs with sanctions, for instance, would encourage Putin’s inner circle to push back against war. But the world is now realizing that the Putin regime is really just Vladimir Putin. And he is apparently no longer worried about what war will mean for Russia’s rich, much less its masses.


Russia is a dictatorship where Vladimir Putin rules supreme, much like Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq, and Kim Jong-un rules today in North Korea.

There are no customary checks and balances in the Putin dictatorship. If he says war, then war it is no matter how terrible this will be for the unfortunate victim, for the Russian people, and for the Russian nation.

This is the most dangerous form of government, as the megalomaniac answers to no one.
 
Putin probably does have a little megalomania going on but he hasn't really done anything close to this crazy before. It may be wise for the world to get past the "It's because he's a madman!" thing and come up with some better theories of why all this is happening and why it's happening the way it is. I'd pretty much GUARANTEE that there is a lot more going on here than "Putin popped a gasket and decided to invade Ukraine".
 
Putin probably does have a little megalomania going on but he hasn't really done anything close to this crazy before. It may be wise for the world to get past the "It's because he's a madman!" thing and come up with some better theories of why all this is happening and why it's happening the way it is. I'd pretty much GUARANTEE that there is a lot more going on here than "Putin popped a gasket and decided to invade Ukraine".

Putin simply cannot afford to have a vibrant and successful democracy on his doorstep.

Maidan is what happened when the Ukrainian people looked across the border at a vibrant economy and a successful democracy in Poland.
 
The Terrible Truth So Many Experts Missed About Russia

iu




Russia is a dictatorship where Vladimir Putin rules supreme, much like Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq, and Kim Jong-un rules today in North Korea.

There are no customary checks and balances in the Putin dictatorship. If he says war, then war it is no matter how terrible this will be for the unfortunate victim, for the Russian people, and for the Russian nation.

This is the most dangerous form of government, as the megalomaniac answers to no one.

Um wtf is this article talking about all I ever heard from the experts was that the invasion was going to happen. I guess if twitter is your expert you will often be wrong.
 
The Terrible Truth So Many Experts Missed About Russia

iu




Russia is a dictatorship where Vladimir Putin rules supreme, much like Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq, and Kim Jong-un rules today in North Korea.

There are no customary checks and balances in the Putin dictatorship. If he says war, then war it is no matter how terrible this will be for the unfortunate victim, for the Russian people, and for the Russian nation.

This is the most dangerous form of government, as the megalomaniac answers to no one.

I recognized this, for years, and I'm sure many experts did not miss it. It's well documented how he strong armed the laws to be changed to enable him to retain power.

And I didnt think he was bluffing re: invading Ukraine either. Putin is smart. But he's also running out of time and even tho he's retained power, he hasnt justified it by making Russia into an economic success or a true world leader. He personally doesnt have that much to lose...his life? He's 69. He's focusing on his legacy, just IMO.

He's also dangerous because he really doesnt care about the common Russian citizens and he knows no one will hold him accountable for what happens to them.
 
The Terrible Truth So Many Experts Missed About Russia

iu




Russia is a dictatorship where Vladimir Putin rules supreme, much like Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq, and Kim Jong-un rules today in North Korea.

There are no customary checks and balances in the Putin dictatorship. If he says war, then war it is no matter how terrible this will be for the unfortunate victim, for the Russian people, and for the Russian nation.

This is the most dangerous form of government, as the megalomaniac answers to no one.
This is reminiscent of the Holocaust. Leaders around the world turn their head and act as if nothing is happening or it's just a problem with in one country that they have to work out. Then it gets to the point where you can't do that anymore,but by that time so much damage has been done.
 
Democracy is winning. Russians might want it as well. Better do something about that. It's that simple.
 
Putin simply cannot afford to have a vibrant and successful democracy on his doorstep.

Maidan is what happened when the Ukrainian people looked across the border at a vibrant economy and a successful democracy in Poland.

Yes, but, it's a bit of a feedback loop: seize parts of Ukraine or all of it, and his doorstep moves west. If that's his motive (and it has to be at least a big part of it), it'll always be there.
 
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