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The Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Most abortions now illegal in Utah

Doug64

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Utah is one of the states that had a trigger law in place, and that law became effective Friday night.


Utah’s law allows abortions only if the mother’s life is at risk, if the pregnancy was a result of rape or incest, or if two physicians who practice “maternal fetal medicine” both determine that the fetus “has a defect that is uniformly diagnosable and uniformly lethal or ... has a severe brain abnormality that is uniformly diagnosable.”

According to the state’s Vital Statistics, there were 2,776 abortions performed in 2019. Based on the reasons given for those abortions, only 14 would have been allowed under the current trigger law, although the dataset doesn’t include abortions that are the result of incest.

There is, however, one issue possibly skewing the data--the number of reported rapes. As the article points out, possibly as low as 12% of rapes are reported to police, and the Utah law requires that for rape to be given as the reason for an abortion it must be so reported. So there's no saying how many of those 2,762 "elective" abortions were the result of rape that the mothers simply didn't report. I expect that we will see a jump in the number of reported rapes in the future, as women that have been raped cover their bets in case of pregnancy.

Likewise, we are likely to see a rise in the number of false rape accusations, a drop in premarital and extramarital sex, and a rise (in both the amount and cost) of prostitution in Utah (and any other state with similar laws).
 

Mr Person

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There is, however, one issue possibly skewing the data--the number of reported rapes. As the article points out, possibly as low as 12% of rapes are reported to police, and the Utah law requires that for rape to be given as the reason for an abortion it must be so reported. So there's no saying how many of those 2,762 "elective" abortions were the result of rape that the mothers simply didn't report. I expect that we will see a jump in the number of reported rapes in the future, as women that have been raped cover their bets in case of pregnancy.

Likewise, we are likely to see a rise in the number of false rape accusations, a drop in premarital and extramarital sex, and a rise (in both the amount and cost) of prostitution in Utah (and any other state with similar laws).

Reports of true rapes are going to rise more than false ones. That's my bet and a big one, not that it can be determined whether I won (you'd need a God's eye view). The false rapes? Women aren't evil, so those aren't generally going to be accusations against unidentified persons. They'll be generic. And it would be a secondary evil - in addition to that of stripping bodily autonomy from them - for any of those false rape accusations against unidentified persons, prosecutions for making a false police report will be on the horizon.
(You will note I said "unidentified". That's to be clear that a false accusation against an identified person would be an independent evil of its own, even if motivated by the evil of abortion bans)​



_____________
More generally: we will all note that the anti-choice people have been trying to assauge us with reassurances that the sky won't fall and is not falling. Ask yourself how many of their reassurances about the future and their behavior in it have proven true?
 

reflechissez

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We are likely to see more babies and more people leaving the state to get abortions.

How long do you think it takes for a rape accusation to move through the justice system?
 

ttwtt78640

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We are likely to see more babies and more people leaving the state to get abortions.

How long do you think it takes for a rape accusation to move through the justice system?

Why is that (bolded above) important? Once a rape has been ‘officially’ reported (alleged) that meets the requirement to get a ‘special’ abortion.
 

reflechissez

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Why is that (bolded above) important? Once a rape has been ‘officially’ reported (alleged) that meets the requirement to get a ‘special’ abortion.
What does "officially" reported mean? Does the rapist need to be named? Does an investigation have to happen? Does a court case have to happen? You don't know the answer to any of these questions.
 

Doug64

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Reports of true rapes are going to rise more than false ones. That's my bet and a big one, not that it can be determined whether I won (you'd need a God's eye view). The false rapes? Women aren't evil, so those aren't generally going to be accusations against unidentified persons. They'll be generic. And it would be a secondary evil - in addition to that of stripping bodily autonomy from them - for any of those false rape accusations against unidentified persons, prosecutions for making a false police report will be on the horizon.
(You will note I said "unidentified". That's to be clear that a false accusation against an identified person would be an independent evil of its own, even if motivated by the evil of abortion bans)​
I imagine that you are correct that the increase of true reports of rape will outpace false ones, though I would disagree with your "women aren't evil"--women are just as capable of evil as men. I also imagine that you are correct, that most false reports of rape won't identify a specific rapist. The problem, though, is that one step in reporting a rape is the collection of DNA evidence, so even if the woman making a false report of rape doesn't name the man his DNA would end up on file.

More generally: we will all note that the anti-choice people have been trying to assauge us with reassurances that the sky won't fall and is not falling. Ask yourself how many of their reassurances about the future and their behavior in it have proven true?
"Have proven true"? It's only been two days. But I expect that most pro-choice women live in states where abortion laws were already as liberal as Roe if not more so, so for them the impact will be absolutely zip.

What does "officially" reported mean? Does the rapist need to be named? Does an investigation have to happen? Does a court case have to happen? You don't know the answer to any of these questions.
I expect "officially reported" means there is a police record of a reported rape on file. I would also expect that the process of reporting the rape would include a police interview and the collection of DNA evidence, which would also be on file.
 

reflechissez

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I expect "officially reported" means there is a police record of a reported rape on file. I would also expect that the process of reporting the rape would include a police interview and the collection of DNA evidence, which would also be on file.
And if the accused denies the allegation? The presence of DNA is not proof of rape.
 

ttwtt78640

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What does "officially" reported mean?

A police report has been filed.

Does the rapist need to be named?

Nope, one could claim to have been raped when they were drugged or by an unknown person.

Does an investigation have to happen?

I doubt it, but I can’t imagine why any crime reported would not be investigated.

Does a court case have to happen?

No, if the suspect can’t be identified a trial would be useless.

You don't know the answer to any of these questions.

I know what “reported to police” means.

Julie Valentine, forensic nurse, associate dean and professor at Brigham Young University, points out that in order to qualify to receive an abortion, a patient must have a police report on file — which many of them don’t.


Sexual assault and rape are drastically underreported, with as few as 12% of assaults being reported to the police, according to a 2007 report by the Utah Commission on Criminal and Juvenile Justice.

“That negates the option for an abortion for the majority of women who have experienced rape or incest because they don’t report.
 

reflechissez

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But I expect that most pro-choice women live in states where abortion laws were already as liberal as Roe if not more so, so for them the impact will be absolutely zip.
What do your expectations have to do with anything?
 

reflechissez

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A police report has been filed.



Nope, one could claim to have been raped when they were drugged or by an unknown person.



I doubt it, but I can’t imagine why any crime reported would not be investigated.



No, if the suspect can’t be identified a trial would be useless.



I know what “reported to police” means.
Why do you "doubt" an investigation would be required? You made that up.

If the suspect CAN be identified, will a trial be required?

You're just back to "all they have to do is report a rape." You don't know that.
 

Doug64

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And if the accused denies the allegation? The presence of DNA is not proof of rape.
No, it isn't. But the law doesn't require that rape be proven, merely reported.
 

Doug64

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You don't know that. Reporting is just the first step.
Quoting from the article:

Even with exceptions in the law for rape and incest, some advocates worry that the majority of survivors will be unable to terminate unwanted pregnancies because of how the law is written. Julie Valentine, forensic nurse, associate dean and professor at Brigham Young University, points out that in order to qualify to receive an abortion, a patient must have a police report on file — which many of them don’t. [emphasis added]
 

ttwtt78640

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Why do you "doubt" an investigation would be required? You made that up.

I doubted that anything more than the stated police report would be required. You seemed to want a police report and a completed investigation report to be required.

If the suspect CAN be identified, will a trial be required?

That would likely depend on whether a plea deal was made. Why do you keep trying to complicate matters?

You're just back to "all they have to do is report a rape." You don't know that.

I know what the OP link said and included the relevant quote for you. What else is this thread about? You seem intent on adding further conditions and then arguing that they should not have been added.
 

RAMOSS

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Utah is one of the states that had a trigger law in place, and that law became effective Friday night.




There is, however, one issue possibly skewing the data--the number of reported rapes. As the article points out, possibly as low as 12% of rapes are reported to police, and the Utah law requires that for rape to be given as the reason for an abortion it must be so reported. So there's no saying how many of those 2,762 "elective" abortions were the result of rape that the mothers simply didn't report. I expect that we will see a jump in the number of reported rapes in the future, as women that have been raped cover their bets in case of pregnancy.

Likewise, we are likely to see a rise in the number of false rape accusations, a drop in premarital and extramarital sex, and a rise (in both the amount and cost) of prostitution in Utah (and any other state with similar laws).
One statistic .. 4% of all rapes end up in a pregnancy. There is also..

well there is also

 

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I imagine that you are correct that the increase of true reports of rape will outpace false ones, though I would disagree with your "women aren't evil"--women are just as capable of evil as men. I also imagine that you are correct, that most false reports of rape won't identify a specific rapist. The problem, though, is that one step in reporting a rape is the collection of DNA evidence, so even if the woman making a false report of rape doesn't name the man his DNA would end up on file.


"Have proven true"? It's only been two days. But I expect that most pro-choice women live in states where abortion laws were already as liberal as Roe if not more so, so for them the impact will be absolutely zip.


I expect "officially reported" means there is a police record of a reported rape on file. I would also expect that the process of reporting the rape would include a police interview and the collection of DNA evidence, which would also be on file.
You are wrong
Most women don't want this. Do they want limits on when you can have an abortion? Yes

I've read too many stories in the past day of women stating they would be dead if they didn't remove the fetus at x point because of medical reasons. Mind you they wanted the baby.

This is gonna kill women because it has to be all or nothing now.
 

highroller

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We are likely to see more babies and more people leaving the state to get abortions.

How long do you think it takes for a rape accusation to move through the justice system?
Abortion clinics are going to the new smoker's shop just across the border.
 

reflechissez

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I doubted that anything more than the stated police report would be required. <putting words in my mouth>



That would likely depend on whether a plea deal was made. Why do you keep trying to complicate matters?



I know what the OP link said and included the relevant quote for you. What else is this thread about? <putting words in my mouth again>
You have no idea how this is going to play out.
 

Doug64

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You are wrong
Most women don't want this.
I didn’t say most women want this, I said most pro-choice women most likely live in states where this decision won’t make a bit of difference.

I've read too many stories in the past day of women stating they would be dead if they didn't remove the fetus at x point because of medical reasons. Mind you they wanted the baby.

This is gonna kill women because it has to be all or nothing now.
Utah’s law includes an exception for the life of the mother.
 

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Abortion clinics are going to the new smoker's shop just across the border.
I think you're right. Wendover is only two hours from SLC.

But then, the abortion pill is still legal and has a shelf life of 2 to 5 years.
 

reflechissez

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I said most pro-choice women most likely live in states where this decision won’t make a bit of difference.
What's your point about that? Are you unaware that people are discussing those whom it would impact?
 
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