• Please keep all posts on the Rittenhouse verdict here: Rittenhouse Verdict. Note the moderator warnings in the thread. The thread will be heavily moderated with a zero tolerance policy for any baiting, flaming, trolling or other rule breaks. Stick to the topic and not the other posters. Thank you.
  • This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!
  • Welcome to our archives. No new posts are allowed here.

The Senate Prediction Thread

danarhea

Slayer of the DP Newsbot
DP Veteran
Joined
Aug 27, 2005
Messages
43,602
Reaction score
26,255
Location
Houston, TX
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
Predict how the Senate is going to end up. My prediction is 50-50. Here's what I believe will happen in the contested races:

Feingold defeats Johnson in Wisconsin. Seat flips Democratic.
Duckworth defeats Kirk in Illinois. Seat flips Democratic.
Hassan defeats Ayotte in New Hampshire. Seat flips Democratic.
Bayh defeats Young in Indiana. Seat flips Democratic.
McGinty defeats Toomey in Pennsylvania. Seat flips Democratic.
Heck defeats Masto in Nevada. Seat flips Republican.
Portman holds in Ohio. Seat stays Republican.
Rubio holds in Florida. Seat stays Republican.
Burr holds in North Carolina. Seat stays Republican.
McCain holds in Arizona. Seat stays Republican.
Blunt holds in Missouri. Seat stays Republican.

No other seat is contested. Incumbent easily holds his seat. My prediction is that the Democrats will flip 5 seats, Republicans will flip 1 seat, and Republicans will hold 5 seats in contested states. IMHO, this won't be the bloodbath for the Republican party that some are predicting. 2 other things here.

1) Not sure how this will play out for SCOTUS nominations. If it takes 51 votes, and not 50 and a tie breaker (Assuming the nuclear option), then SCOTUS will remain at 4-4. Republicans had to have figured this out when they decided to stonewall Obama on his nomination. If Ginsburg dies (She is 93 now), then Republicans will have a 4-3 lock on SCOTUS.

2) Democrats will barely hold the Senate, and it will be for 2 years. In 2018, Republicans take it back. I believe that they will have somewhere around 54 seats again, due to so many Democratic seats that will be up for grabs.

3) As for the House, it will stay Republican this year, and also in 2018.

What are YOUR predictions?
 
Last edited:

Anagram

DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 10, 2011
Messages
8,858
Reaction score
5,411
Location
St. Louis MO
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Conservative
As of right now?

Republicans lose Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. Democrats hold Nevada and Colorado. 52-48. Subject to a great deal of change in the three months before the election.
 

haymarket

DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 3, 2010
Messages
120,954
Reaction score
28,528
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
I think Anagram got it right with those states. Dems will have 52 seats - GOP will control 48. The Supreme Court nominees of President Clinton will go through and we will have major changes for a decade or more because of this election. I would expect Ruth Ginsburg to also resign in the first six months of her presidency to replace her with a liberal.

Two years later, the Senate should flip back to GOP control. But those two years can be amazing if Clinton tries to repeat the FDR Hundred Days - and I would strongly urge that be the agenda.
 

Beaudreaux

Preserve Protect Defend
Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 13, 2012
Messages
18,233
Reaction score
15,861
Location
veni, vidi, volo - now back in NC
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Nevada is a pick-up for the GOP, with Wisconsin and Illinois flipping to the Democrats - all others stay the same. Democrats pick up one seat, leaving it 53 Republican and 47 Democrat.
 

haymarket

DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 3, 2010
Messages
120,954
Reaction score
28,528
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Nevada is a pick-up for the GOP, with Wisconsin and Illinois flipping to the Democrats - all others stay the same. Democrats pick up one seat, leaving it 53 Republican and 47 Democrat.

When I worked in the legislature I got to know quite well the Democrats pollster. I remember he used to talk about the 8 point difference in an election. He said that when either parties candidate at the top of the ticket won by 8 or more points there was then significant down ballot damage done and it was simple mathematics and would almost always occur.

So lets watch and see if that happens with a Trump loss in November as it would spell big GOP losses in the Senate and even the heavily gerrymandered House.

My prediction of 52 D and 48 R is based on at least a five point Clinton victory.
 

Chomsky

Social Democrat
DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 28, 2015
Messages
58,680
Reaction score
45,532
Location
Third Coast
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
Predict how the Senate is going to end up. My prediction is 50-50. Here's what I believe will happen in the contested races:

Feingold defeats Johnson in Wisconsin. Seat flips Democratic.
Duckworth defeats Kirk in Illinois. Seat flips Democratic.
Hassan defeats Ayotte in New Hampshire. Seat flips Democratic.
Bayh defeats Young in Indiana. Seat flips Democratic.
McGinty defeats Toomey in Pennsylvania. Seat flips Democratic.
Heck defeats Masto in Nevada. Seat flips Republican.
Portman holds in Ohio. Seat stays Republican.
Rubio holds in Florida. Seat stays Republican.
Burr holds in North Carolina. Seat stays Republican.
McCain holds in Arizona. Seat stays Republican.
Blunt holds in Missouri. Seat stays Republican.

No other seat is contested. Incumbent easily holds his seat. My prediction is that the Democrats will flip 5 seats, Republicans will flip 1 seat, and Republicans will hold 5 seats in contested states. IMHO, this won't be the bloodbath for the Republican party that some are predicting. 2 other things here.

1) Not sure how this will play out for SCOTUS nominations. If it takes 51 votes, and not 50 and a tie breaker (Assuming the nuclear option), then SCOTUS will remain at 4-4. Republicans had to have figured this out when they decided to stonewall Obama on his nomination. If Ginsburg dies (She is 93 now), then Republicans will have a 4-3 lock on SCOTUS.

2) Democrats will barely hold the Senate, and it will be for 2 years. In 2018, Republicans take it back. I believe that they will have somewhere around 54 seats again, due to so many Democratic seats that will be up for grabs.

3) As for the House, it will stay Republican this year, and also in 2018.

What are YOUR predictions?
To the bolded:

So the VP doesn't get the tie-breaker vote, like with legislation?
 

Chomsky

Social Democrat
DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 28, 2015
Messages
58,680
Reaction score
45,532
Location
Third Coast
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
When I worked in the legislature I got to know quite well the Democrats pollster. I remember he used to talk about the 8 point difference in an election. He said that when either parties candidate at the top of the ticket won by 8 or more points there was then significant down ballot damage done and it was simple mathematics and would almost always occur.

So lets watch and see if that happens with a Trump loss in November as it would spell big GOP losses in the Senate and even the heavily gerrymandered House.

My prediction of 52 D and 48 R is based on at least a five point Clinton victory.
8 would not only get the Senate, but also perhaps threaten the House.
 

Chomsky

Social Democrat
DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 28, 2015
Messages
58,680
Reaction score
45,532
Location
Third Coast
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
I don't know, which is why I am asking.
This doc seems to say 'yes', but it's far from a definitive source:

"This means they would need 4 more votes–if they can get to 50, Vice President Biden can break a tie."

How Obama Can Replace Scalia

Senate.gov says this:

"The Vice President of the United States shall be President of the Senate, but shall have no Vote, unless they be equally divided" (U.S. Constitution, Article I, section 3). Since 1789, 244 tie-breaking votes have been cast."

Senate.gov Tie Votes


I do suspect the VP breaks ties on nominees. Can't prove it with certainty, though.
 

Perotista

DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 31, 2013
Messages
26,702
Reaction score
19,297
Location
Georgia
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
To the bolded:

So the VP doesn't get the tie-breaker vote, like with legislation?

Article I, section 3 states "The Vice President of the United States shall be president of the Senate, but have no vote unless they be equally divided."

No where does the constitution specify legislation, only the senate being equally divided, then the VP has a vote.

No where in the constitution does it specify 51 votes either for the SCOTUS. If there are only 97 senators present, 49 votes would do nicely.
 

Chomsky

Social Democrat
DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 28, 2015
Messages
58,680
Reaction score
45,532
Location
Third Coast
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
Article I, section 3 states "The Vice President of the United States shall be president of the Senate, but have no vote unless they be equally divided."

No where does the constitution specify legislation, only the senate being equally divided, then the VP has a vote.

No where in the constitution does it specify 51 votes either for the SCOTUS. If there are only 97 senators present, 49 votes would do nicely.
Thanks for the reply.

Yeah, a little research led me to the same conclusion (which I posted in post #9 above).
 

haymarket

DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 3, 2010
Messages
120,954
Reaction score
28,528
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
8 would not only get the Senate, but also perhaps threaten the House.

No doubt it would cause some loss of GOP held seats. The problem with the House is that it is gerrymandered to the point where it would take a real landslide of the proportions of 64 or 72 to actually flip it around.While the Dems will pick up seats - its hard to envision GOP losing control of the lower chamber.

But we can hope.
 

Unitedwestand13

DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 24, 2013
Messages
20,720
Reaction score
6,276
Location
Sunnyvale California
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
Predict how the Senate is going to end up. My prediction is 50-50. Here's what I believe will happen in the contested races:

Feingold defeats Johnson in Wisconsin. Seat flips Democratic.
Duckworth defeats Kirk in Illinois. Seat flips Democratic.
Hassan defeats Ayotte in New Hampshire. Seat flips Democratic.
Bayh defeats Young in Indiana. Seat flips Democratic.
McGinty defeats Toomey in Pennsylvania. Seat flips Democratic.






What are YOUR predictions?

I agree with your first couple predictions but I am optimistic about democratic chances.

I will say that the senate races in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Arizona will also flip to the democrats. Nevada may flip to republican and Roy blunt will hold Missouri's senate seat.

My prediction is that democrats pick up 9 seats.
 

Anagram

DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 10, 2011
Messages
8,858
Reaction score
5,411
Location
St. Louis MO
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Conservative
I agree with your first couple predictions but I am optimistic about democratic chances.

I will say that the senate races in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Arizona will also flip to the democrats. Nevada may flip to republican and Roy blunt will hold Missouri's senate seat.

My prediction is that democrats pick up 9 seats.

Strickland's running a gaffe filled campaign in Ohio, and Murphy's lies on his resume seemed to have hurt him as well in Florida. Rubio's been up double digits in the last couple polls there. I honestly think North Carolina would flip before those two. Missouri maybe as well. For whatever reason, even a couple polls that have had Trump up 10 have had Blunt and Kander in a virtual tie. Although I do think Blunt will still pull it out.
 

Unitedwestand13

DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 24, 2013
Messages
20,720
Reaction score
6,276
Location
Sunnyvale California
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
Strickland's running a gaffe filled campaign in Ohio, and Murphy's lies on his resume seemed to have hurt him as well in Florida. Rubio's been up double digits in the last couple polls there. I honestly think North Carolina would flip before those two. Missouri maybe as well. For whatever reason, even a couple polls that have had Trump up 10 have had Blunt and Kander in a virtual tie. Although I do think Blunt will still pull it out.

Rubio has to get through a primary first, and the funny thing about Rubio running for reelection is that he is trying to keep the job he hated doing so much he ran for president of the United States. Rubio has one of the worst attendance records in the senate. This is from an article printed by the sun sentinel paper.

After five years in the U.S. Senate, Marco Rubio does not like his job. A long-time friend told The Washington Post "he hates it." Rubio says hate might be too strong a word, but he sure acts like he hates his job.

Rubio has missed more votes than any other senator this year. His seat is regularly empty for floor votes, committee meetings and intelligence briefings. He says he's MIA from his J-O-B because he finds it frustrating and wants to be president, instead.

"I'm not missing votes because I'm on vacation," he told CNN on Sunday. "I'm running for president so that the votes they take in the Senate are actually meaningful again."

Sorry, senator, but Floridians sent you to Washington to do a job. We've got serious problems with clogged highways, eroding beaches, flat Social Security checks and people who want to shut down the government.

If you hate your job, senator, follow the honorable lead of House Speaker John Boehner and resign it.

Why is Rubio running for a job he tried so hard to escape from?

Sen. Marco Rubio should resign, not rip us off - Sun Sentinel
 

Anagram

DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 10, 2011
Messages
8,858
Reaction score
5,411
Location
St. Louis MO
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Conservative
Rubio has to get through a primary first, and the funny thing about Rubio running for reelection is that he is trying to keep the job he hated doing so much he ran for president of the United States. Rubio has one of the worst attendance records in the senate. This is from an article printed by the sun sentinel paper.



Why is Rubio running for a job he tried so hard to escape from?

Sen. Marco Rubio should resign, not rip us off - Sun Sentinel

Beruff's not a real threat to him in the primary I don't think. Murphy would've had a good chance against him with Trump running, but he really seems to have been hurt by his resume story. Still an outside shot Trump can drag Rubio down, but I'd put this further down on the list of possible pickups.
 

calamity

Privileged
Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Monthly Donator
Joined
Feb 12, 2013
Messages
160,393
Reaction score
57,482
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Centrist
Predict how the Senate is going to end up. My prediction is 50-50. Here's what I believe will happen in the contested races:

Feingold defeats Johnson in Wisconsin. Seat flips Democratic.
Duckworth defeats Kirk in Illinois. Seat flips Democratic.
Hassan defeats Ayotte in New Hampshire. Seat flips Democratic.
Bayh defeats Young in Indiana. Seat flips Democratic.
McGinty defeats Toomey in Pennsylvania. Seat flips Democratic.
Heck defeats Masto in Nevada. Seat flips Republican.
Portman holds in Ohio. Seat stays Republican.
Rubio holds in Florida. Seat stays Republican.
Burr holds in North Carolina. Seat stays Republican.
McCain holds in Arizona. Seat stays Republican.
Blunt holds in Missouri. Seat stays Republican.

No other seat is contested. Incumbent easily holds his seat. My prediction is that the Democrats will flip 5 seats, Republicans will flip 1 seat, and Republicans will hold 5 seats in contested states. IMHO, this won't be the bloodbath for the Republican party that some are predicting. 2 other things here.

1) Not sure how this will play out for SCOTUS nominations. If it takes 51 votes, and not 50 and a tie breaker (Assuming the nuclear option), then SCOTUS will remain at 4-4. Republicans had to have figured this out when they decided to stonewall Obama on his nomination. If Ginsburg dies (She is 93 now), then Republicans will have a 4-3 lock on SCOTUS.

2) Democrats will barely hold the Senate, and it will be for 2 years. In 2018, Republicans take it back. I believe that they will have somewhere around 54 seats again, due to so many Democratic seats that will be up for grabs.

3) As for the House, it will stay Republican this year, and also in 2018.

What are YOUR predictions?

Hard to say at this point. I tend to agree with your 50-50 projection. But, if Donald continues being Donald, I can see a few of those neck and neck races slipping away from the GOP.
 

Unitedwestand13

DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 24, 2013
Messages
20,720
Reaction score
6,276
Location
Sunnyvale California
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
Beruff's not a real threat to him in the primary I don't think. Murphy would've had a good chance against him with Trump running, but he really seems to have been hurt by his resume story. Still an outside shot Trump can drag Rubio down, but I'd put this further down on the list of possible pickups.

And rubio's record as senator does not drag him down?
 

Anagram

DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 10, 2011
Messages
8,858
Reaction score
5,411
Location
St. Louis MO
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Conservative
And rubio's record as senator does not drag him down?

I'm sure it does a little bit, but this has been an attack on Rubio for years and was brought up a ton in the Presidential primary yet he's still up double digits.
 

calamity

Privileged
Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Monthly Donator
Joined
Feb 12, 2013
Messages
160,393
Reaction score
57,482
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Centrist
I'm sure it does a little bit, but this has been an attack on Rubio for years and was brought up a ton in the Presidential primary yet he's still up double digits.

That is the power of incumbency. Congress gets a 15% approval rating, but the incumbent almost always wins, and wins big. It's a case of "everyone else's congressman sucks but mine is great."
 
Top Bottom