The Rs won a special US House primary yesterday in CA by 30 points, a district Trump won by just 5 points

[Tender Branson]

65% for the 4 Republicans
35% for the 2 Democrats

Elections and Voter Information :: California Secretary of State

electionresults.sos.ca.gov

Tulare conservative Connie Conway leads the 22nd Congressional District race with Lourin Hubbard, a progressive Democrat, second.

Neither have the magic 50% needed to take the seat this week.

The first election of 2022 unfolded in Tulare and Fresno counties, with six candidates competing to fill out the term of longtime Congressman Devin Nunes(R-Tulare), who resigned to run former President Donald Trump's fledgling social media company.

Nunes served just shy of 20 years in Washington D.C.

As of Wednesday, the 208 precincts in the district were listed as “partially” reporting. Vote-by-mail, provisional, and other ballots will continue to be counted after Election Night.

Conway and Hubbard will head to a runoff in June. Voters will have just the two on the ballot this time.

The twist in Tuesday's special election: The winning candidate will occupy a seat that won’t exist when the year is over.

 

[Tender Branson]

The CA-22 district voted kinda strange since 2012:

In 2012, 14 and 16, it voted for Republican Nunes with over 65% in each case.

Then in 2018 and 2020, Nunes only received 52% each anymore.

I don’t know why Nunes support collapsed so much in 2018 and 2020, but it seems Trump in office was a major factor and voting trends are now back to „normal“ in this district to what it was before Trump …

 

[Cordelier]

The CA-22 district voted kinda strange since 2012:

In 2012, 14 and 16, it voted for Republican Nunes with over 65% in each case.

Then in 2018 and 2020, Nunes only received 52% each anymore.

I don’t know why Nunes support collapsed so much in 2018 and 2020, but it seems Trump in office was a major factor and voting trends are now back to „normal“ in this district to what it was before Trump …

I wouldn't read too much into primary results... but even so, it's still a pretty safe Republican district.

 

[Tender Branson]

The district generally voted a lot more Republican in statewide offices such as Governor, or lower-key federal ones like Senate or House.

In Presidential election results, the district was about 10% less Republican throughout history.

 

[Tender Branson]

I wouldn't read too much into primary results... but even so, it's still a pretty safe Republican district.

True.

It was a heavy R district before Trump and Trump dented the results there a bit. Now it’s back to normal there.

The Alaska special election in August will be a much better indicator of what’s to come in November …

 

[Cordelier]

The district generally voted a lot more Republican in statewide offices such as Governor, or lower-key federal ones like Senate or House.

In Presidential election results, the district was about 10% less Republican throughout history.

It was pretty solid 15-20 point edge for the Republicans... Trump reduced that to 5-10. But no matter how you slice it, a Democrat winning that seat would be a major upset.

 

[Cordelier]

True.

It was a heavy R district before Trump and Trump dented the results there a bit. Now it’s back to normal there.

The Alaska special election in August will be a much better indicator of what’s to come in November …

I think Minnesota 01 is probably a better bellweather - that's usually a pretty close race.

 

[Tender Branson]

It was pretty solid 15-20 point edge for the Republicans... Trump reduced that to 5-10. But no matter how you slice it, a Democrat winning that seat would be a major upset.

Yeah, plus turnout was really low.

Almost nobody votes in a special election in which the districts ceases to exist in early January because new districts were created after Census 2020.

The winner of this election will only be in office for 6 months.

 

[Tender Branson]

I think Minnesota 01 is probably a better bellweather - that's usually a pretty close race.

This one too, but Alaska should be even more indicative of November, because it’s statewide.

 

[Cordelier]

Yeah, plus turnout was really low.

Almost nobody votes in a special election in which the districts ceases to exist in early January because new districts were created after Census 2020.

The winner of this election will only be in office for 6 months.

Incumbency is a big advantage though... it opens a lot of doors for fundraising.

 

[Cordelier]

This one too, but Alaska should be even more indicative of November, because it’s statewide.

Alaska is always a wildcard though. They kind of march to the beat of a different drum up there.

But they do always seem manage to elect effective legislators. Murkowski and Sullivan are the best pair of Senators of any State in getting their pet bills passed.

 

[Ug make hammer]

California's primary system is open to "false flag" primary votes. I've been expecting something like this to happen.

Wait and see what the runoff decides, before drawing any conclusions.

 

[Ug make hammer]

Alaska is always a wildcard though. They kind of march to the beat of a different drum up there.

But they do always seem manage to elect effective legislators. Murkowski and Sullivan are the best pair of Senators of any State in getting their pet bills passed.

The pork doesn't even come in barrels. It's snap frozen!

 

[Cordelier]

The pork doesn't even come in barrels. It's snap frozen!

*L* True... but every Senator in every state is after it just the same... but the Alaskan duo are the best at bringing home the bacon. So was Don Young.

I doubt that they'd give all of that up and settle for a dilettante ditz representing them in Washington now.

 

[Linc]

The CA primary is a cluster of state’s rights. The top two go to the June primary, both R’s, at 35%and 20%. Note how the appointed Senator is up.

https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G22/CA

 

[KingLeo]

Not a big surprise. That rural district has long been a red stronghold.

 

[Gateman_Wen]

65% for the 4 Republicans
35% for the 2 Democrats

Elections and Voter Information :: California Secretary of State

electionresults.sos.ca.gov

Meh. It's a traditionally republican district.

 

[Tender Branson]

Incumbency is a big advantage though... it opens a lot of doors for fundraising.

There are no incumbents in this race though.

Nunes retired and the 2 that won the primary will go to a general election in June, then serve until January and then retire.

They are not running for the new seats created for 2023 and after …

 

[Tender Branson]

The CA primary is a cluster of state’s rights. The top two go to the June primary, both R’s, at 35%and 20%. Note how the appointed Senator is up.

https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G22/CA

Nope.

The R with 35% and the D with 20% will advance to the June runoff.

Not 2 Republicans.

 

[Cordelier]

There are no incumbents in this race though.

Nunes retired and the 2 that won the primary will go to a general election in June, then serve until January and then retire.

They are not running for the new seats created for 2023 and after …

Ahhh... okay. I wasn't actually following this race all that closely since it seems like an obvious Republican hold.

I don't know why you'd run in a special election if you didn't intend to defend the seat in the Fall. Seems kind of pointless to me.

 

[Tender Branson]

Ahhh... okay. I wasn't actually following this race all that closely since it seems like an obvious Republican hold.

I don't know why you'd run in a special election if you didn't intend to defend the seat in the Fall. Seems kind of pointless to me.

Yeah, it’s kinda pointless.

But it’s paid well, and you can get a 6 month „vacation“ in Washington DC with the hope that in their 6 month term they get something interesting to vote on.

And Congressman/woman is good for your curriculum …

 

[Ug make hammer]

Ahhh... okay. I wasn't actually following this race all that closely since it seems like an obvious Republican hold.

I don't know why you'd run in a special election if you didn't intend to defend the seat in the Fall. Seems kind of pointless to me.

It's a quantum of political experience, and may even help to defeat the "carpetbagger" label. Not entirely pointless.

Also bear in mind that if Republicans let a really bad candidate run because their talent couldn't be bothered, a Democrat might win. Can't have that!

 

[Tender Branson]

It seems a few mail ballots postmarked until Election Day and coming in are still going to be counted the next week.

But it seems unlikely that the two candidates currently ahead (1x R, 1x D) won't be in the runoff.

 

[Cordelier]

It's a quantum of political experience, and may even help to defeat the "carpetbagger" label. Not entirely pointless.

Also bear in mind that if Republicans let a really bad candidate run because their talent couldn't be bothered, a Democrat might win. Can't have that!

Still, though, it's puzzling to me... Conway (the Republican candidate) has a pretty solid resume (former Minority Leader in the California Assembly) and she doesn't seem like a typical "seat warmer" for anybody. She's no Nunes acolyte (he never endorsed her in the primary). So why wouldn't she want to serve beyond 6 months? Seems to me that she could hold that seat as long as she wanted to.

 

[mrjurrs]

65% for the 4 Republicans
35% for the 2 Democrats

Elections and Voter Information :: California Secretary of State

electionresults.sos.ca.gov

Way out of context. This district didn't exist when djt ran for president, so comparing the two votes is irrelevant.