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The Rise and Fall of Empires. Where is the US?

Rise and Fall of Empires, where is the US.

  • The Age of Pioneers/Boost Phase

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • The Age of Conquests

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • The Age of Commerce

    Votes: 2 25.0%
  • The Age of Affluence

    Votes: 1 12.5%
  • The Age of Intellect

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • The Age of Decadence (Corruption/Moral Decay)

    Votes: 5 62.5%

  • Total voters
    8

Rollin'Da64

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Sir John Glubb's succinct and deeply informed 1978 essay 'The Fate of Empire's lists six stages of social development and decay that manifest as the rise and decline of empires, leading ultimately to Collapse: Where is the US?
 
Oh, it is obvious that we are in stage 6.

I expect the United States to limp along until the end of this century and then collapse.

By that time, the United States of America will have become a totally dysfunctional country.

Of course, it was inevitable, but it was too hurtful a topic to discuss frankly.
 
Being a "representative republic" I don't think the US falls strictly under the category usually reserved for empires such as the Roman or Byzantine empires and as such hopefully our country will hold to its Constitution and survive.....

And it really does come down to that in my opinion......if we hold to our constitution and our "rule of law" governance....we'll make it just fine.

If we succumb to the anarchists and radicals...we might be eventually doomed.

And when I say anarchists and radicals...I mean left and right....because there are these kinds of kooks on the extremes of left and right......and that is where the trouble is.
 
The Romans didn’t kill the barbarians soon enough. They had three zero sum choices. Educate them and turn them into Romans, ignore them, kill them.

Sorry to be harsh but they were Romans, after all.
 
Sir John Glub's work sounds really nice but it is very much an example of molding history to fit a view point.

Rome's collapse was driven by political and economic instability that was the direct result of the nature of its government and commerce network. The whole "Imperial decadence" leading to Rome's downfall was an invention by Medieval and Renaissance writers to explain away Rome's failings within the context of their own social customs.
 
You bring to mind the historical Thucydides Trap as it's recently come to be called according to which a rising power challenges an established power and that leads to war, at least in the majority of instances cited in history by proponents. Thucydides was the first to make this observation in the Peloponnesian War when a rising Athens was seen as a challenge by the dominant Sparta, war ensued and Sparta prevailed.


The Thucydides Trap

The term describes the theory that when a great power's position as hegemon is threatened by an emerging power, there is a significant likelihood of war between the two powers.[1][2] Or in coiner Graham Allison's words:

Thucydides's Trap refers to the natural, inevitable discombobulation that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power...[and] when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, the resulting structural stress makes a violent clash the rule, not the exception.[8]

To advance his thesis, Allison led a case study by the Harvard University Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs which found that among 16 historical instances of an emerging power rivaling a ruling power, 12 ended in war.[3][9]



Claptrap talk about the fall of an American Empire does not exist in a global vacuum given many lovers of authoritarian societies and governments talk of the rise of China. So any talk of supposedly collapsing empires needs to include China. The major point about China however is that each and every Chinese dynasty has failed. Every dynasty of China has failed.

The inherent flaw the Chinese have that produces this unending and continuous cycle of failed dynasties is that, as the going gets tough, the Chinese give more power and authority to the emperor who is in fact the guy driving the collapse. In the USA which is not an empire we're about to remove the current wannabe emperor from his seat and separate him from his power.

I would add btw that while until now it's been said a war between USA and China would be an accident, ie, unintentionally as supposedly involved Germany challenging Britain and WW I, it's being said presently a war between USA and China would not be an accident. In other words of course, it would be a conscious choice and decision, mutually. Regardless, the study of the thesis of the Thucydides Trap finds that in a war the established power prevails.
 
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