The recession indicator light is flashing

[KLATTU]

This recession indicator is flashing a warning sign | CNN Business

The bond market is flashing a warning sign that has correctly predicted almost every recession over the past 60 years: a potential inversion of the US Treasury note yield curve.

www.cnn.com

New York (CNN Business)The bond market is flashing a warning sign that has correctly predicted almost every recession over the past 60 years: a potential inversion of the US Treasury note yield curve.
An inverted yield curve is often seen as a signal that investors are more nervous about the immediate future than the longer term, spurring interest rates on short-term bonds to move higher than those paid on long-term bonds.
While the curve isn't inverted yet, it's getting close. That shouldn't be particularly surprising, given how Russia's invasion of Ukraine -- and its economic ramifications -- continue to weigh heavily on the global economy.

Needless to say, this would not be good news.

 

[Jkca1]

The questions to be answered are will the landing be hard or soft, 3rd or 4th quarter? All signs point to GOP gains in both the House and Senate. The one wildcard still in play is the labor market. It is very unusual to have employment numbers like we have today and a recession,

 

[KLATTU]

The questions to be answered are will the landing be hard or soft, 3rd or 4th quarter? All signs point to GOP gains in both the House and Senate. The one wildcard still in play is the labor market. It is very unusual to have employment numbers like we have today and a recession,

My laymen's take on the employment numbers is that the US economy has been transormed over the past decade to the point where there are a lot of low paying service jobs that are easy to get. I have no facts to back this up-just an observation.

 

[Roadvirus]

This recession indicator is flashing a warning sign | CNN Business

The bond market is flashing a warning sign that has correctly predicted almost every recession over the past 60 years: a potential inversion of the US Treasury note yield curve.

www.cnn.com

New York (CNN Business)The bond market is flashing a warning sign that has correctly predicted almost every recession over the past 60 years: a potential inversion of the US Treasury note yield curve.
An inverted yield curve is often seen as a signal that investors are more nervous about the immediate future than the longer term, spurring interest rates on short-term bonds to move higher than those paid on long-term bonds.
While the curve isn't inverted yet, it's getting close. That shouldn't be particularly surprising, given how Russia's invasion of Ukraine -- and its economic ramifications -- continue to weigh heavily on the global economy.

Needless to say, this would not be good news.

Never mind "recession". I've been hearing the word "stagflation" being kicked around alot lately.