- Jan 2, 2013
- Reaction score
- Political Leaning
This recession indicator is flashing a warning sign | CNN Business
The bond market is flashing a warning sign that has correctly predicted almost every recession over the past 60 years: a potential inversion of the US Treasury note yield curve.
An inverted yield curve is often seen as a signal that investors are more nervous about the immediate future than the longer term, spurring interest rates on short-term bonds to move higher than those paid on long-term bonds.
While the curve isn't inverted yet, it's getting close. That shouldn't be particularly surprising, given how Russia's invasion of Ukraine -- and its economic ramifications -- continue to weigh heavily on the global economy.
Needless to say, this would not be good news.