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The reality

kanabco

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There is no swing state stunner polls yet. Wait until the conventions are over.
Trump has had the oxygen pulled out of his campaign with all the French and Turkish stuff.
Hillary is maybe dumb but rich. Her campaign money will beat Trump's dumb without campaign money.
The only thing good that conservatives can hope for is a less than eight point loss. If it is nine or more, goodbye senate.
For verified accuracy watch these sites:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ switch between "polls plus forecast", "polls only forecast", "now cast".
2016 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton - Polls - HuffPost Pollster
Princeton Election Consortium ? A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004 read everything there
 

Crovax

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There is no swing state stunner polls yet. Wait until the conventions are over.
Trump has had the oxygen pulled out of his campaign with all the French and Turkish stuff.
Hillary is maybe dumb but rich. Her campaign money will beat Trump's dumb without campaign money.
The only thing good that conservatives can hope for is a less than eight point loss. If it is nine or more, goodbye senate.
For verified accuracy watch these sites:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ switch between "polls plus forecast", "polls only forecast", "now cast".
2016 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton - Polls - HuffPost Pollster
Princeton Election Consortium ? A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004 read everything there

You must be crazy, conservatives don't care how much Trump loses by we will still be voting in the Senate elections. Bill Clinton won by 9 points and lost 2 seats in the senate. Clinton's margin will look a lot bigger because of 3rd party voting for president. If it was just a 2 man race then you would be right about losing the senate.
 

code1211

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There is no swing state stunner polls yet. Wait until the conventions are over.
Trump has had the oxygen pulled out of his campaign with all the French and Turkish stuff.
Hillary is maybe dumb but rich. Her campaign money will beat Trump's dumb without campaign money.
The only thing good that conservatives can hope for is a less than eight point loss. If it is nine or more, goodbye senate.
For verified accuracy watch these sites:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ switch between "polls plus forecast", "polls only forecast", "now cast".
2016 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton - Polls - HuffPost Pollster
Princeton Election Consortium ? A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004 read everything there

Well, I guess it's over then.

Why are we bothering to conduct the election?

We could save a lot time by just sending all of that money to the Clinton Foundation.

After Hillary doubles the debt in her term, I wonder what the balance in the foundation checking account will be...
 

kanabco

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You must be crazy, conservatives don't care how much Trump loses by we will still be voting in the Senate elections. Bill Clinton won by 9 points and lost 2 seats in the senate. Clinton's margin will look a lot bigger because of 3rd party voting for president. If it was just a 2 man race then you would be right about losing the senate.
Read about down ballot voting here
The Key to Winning Down-Ballot Races - POLITICO Magazine
and here
Ryan Disliked by Republicans; Trump Could Hurt Down Ballot - Public Policy Polling
and a hundred other places.

Once you understand it and how it works then understand that this year that the GOP has 24 Senate seats up for election and Dems have only ten.
Democrats currently hold 44+two independents. for 46. GOP holds 54. WI and IL will shift from GOP to Dem this year leaving a senate of effectively 48-52.
Since you now know how down ballot voting works if Hillary wins by eight or more there is a very good chance that she pulls in two more Senators (that is only two of six tossups).
That leaves a 48+2 to 50 stalemate and the VP breaks the tie.

There is a reason the Turtle (Mitch McConnell) is worried about Trump.
 

Crovax

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Read about down ballot voting here
The Key to Winning Down-Ballot Races - POLITICO Magazine
and here
Ryan Disliked by Republicans; Trump Could Hurt Down Ballot - Public Policy Polling
and a hundred other places.

Once you understand it and how it works then understand that this year that the GOP has 24 Senate seats up for election and Dems have only ten.
Democrats currently hold 44+two independents. for 46. GOP holds 54. WI and IL will shift from GOP to Dem this year leaving a senate of effectively 48-52.
Since you now know how down ballot voting works if Hillary wins by eight or more there is a very good chance that she pulls in two more Senators (that is only two of six tossups).
That leaves a 48+2 to 50 stalemate and the VP breaks the tie.

There is a reason the Turtle (Mitch McConnell) is worried about Trump.

The down balloting correlation with winning margin is much bigger in a 2 person race. Those 8 points Hillary will win by isn't because more people are voting for Hillary it's because they are voting 3rd party. In a 2 person race 8 points is 54-46, so it's easy to see why the Senate would easily go for the winner. However an 8 point Hilary win this year she will get something like 45% of the vote, that's not enough to have a major down ticket advantage as there will be a lot of vote splitting.

Now that you know how math works you can see its not as black and white as you think.
 

Perotista

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There is no swing state stunner polls yet. Wait until the conventions are over.
Trump has had the oxygen pulled out of his campaign with all the French and Turkish stuff.
Hillary is maybe dumb but rich. Her campaign money will beat Trump's dumb without campaign money.
The only thing good that conservatives can hope for is a less than eight point loss. If it is nine or more, goodbye senate.
For verified accuracy watch these sites:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ switch between "polls plus forecast", "polls only forecast", "now cast".
2016 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton - Polls - HuffPost Pollster
Princeton Election Consortium ? A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004 read everything there

The senate is probably lost. It becomes a numbers game. 24 Republican seats up for Re-election vs. only 10 for the Democrats. With 14 more seats to defend than the Democrats, the number basically say this will be a tough year for the Republicans in the senate races. Beside 9 of the 10 seats the Democrats have up for Re-election are pretty safe. Only in Nevada does the Republicans have a hopeful chance of winning a Democratic held seats.

On the other hand the Democrats have a good shot at winning in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The other seats would be considered safe seats. Now a good shot doesn't mean to expect a Democratic win, it just means these states are withing the 40-60% range one way or the other.
 

kanabco

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The down balloting correlation with winning margin is much bigger in a 2 person race. Those 8 points Hillary will win by isn't because more people are voting for Hillary it's because they are voting 3rd party. In a 2 person race 8 points is 54-46, so it's easy to see why the Senate would easily go for the winner. However an 8 point Hilary win this year she will get something like 45% of the vote, that's not enough to have a major down ticket advantage as there will be a lot of vote splitting.

Now that you know how math works you can see its not as black and white as you think.

What does one say in response to someone who is totally wrong?
I know. Why don't we bookmark this link and discuss it again after November 8th? I will be proven absolutely correct. You will be proven absolutely incorrect.
 
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