The Pompeo-Biden Plan

[Ug make hammer]

It's been bothering me for a while now. What did President Trump trade away to Kim Jong-Un, in exchange for a cessation of nuclear tests and scaling back of missile tests?

Of course it's possible that Trump threatened Kim, but I doubt that would have much effect. The Kims are born and raised under threat (as they see it.) But still, I was tossing up between "Trump threatened to nuke Pyongyang" and "Trump gave N. Korea nuclear weapons."

Now I see. Practically speaking North Korea has more to fear from China than from the US. Consider: what would the US do if China invaded North Korea? This would make the South less secure, but is that worth it for the US to get into a land war in Asia? On the other hand, what happens if the US invades North Korea? I think it's certain that China would get involved, at least in supply insurgents.

So here's the conspiracy. Pompeo and Trump persuade Kim Jong-Un that the US will not react if China invades Taiwan. Kim believes this, because in his mind Taiwan is a nothing country, not aligned with anyone, weak, capitalist. Pompeo and Trump were counting on this coming through to Xi and the party at around about the same time as (what actually happened) a virus emerged from China. China would probably start by draining all the intelligence possible out of Taiwan (at cost of agents, who will no longer be needed after invasion) and upgrading ports near Taiwan to carry masses of troops.

To me, the most viable attack on Taiwan would be a fast, surprise amphibious assault. Seizing ports (since apparently beaches are all mined) then within 48 hours putting half a million troops (ranging from cadet to elite) on the island. If they did that, the US would be in a state of war without any obvious way to win. They could sink supply ships (the large number of troops would require a lot of supplies) but they wouldn't win any praise for starving the Taiwanese along with the Chinese troops. And then it's election season, and Trump gets a massive War President boost and Republicans win everything.

A possible embellishment on this is that the Chinese worked it out (no-one should ever work on the assumption that the Party lacks good advisors) and struck back with Covid. Another embellishment is that Covid just put a pause on everything, but the conspiracy is still running and Biden is weighing whether to use it for his own re-election.

There's a dynamic to "war President" and it's hard to fake. Lesser conspiracy theorists, seeing the enormous political benefit President Bush 33 got from the WTC and Pentagon attacks, have blown all credibility trying to explain how the US Government (Deep State etc) actually faked the attacks. But they didn't use Occam's Razor: why think good guys are actually bad guys and were manipulated, when manipulating what everyone knows to be bad guys is simpler?

There is no doubt an attempted invasion of Taiwan, or even armed attacks by the PLA, would be a lovely casus belli for the US. It's also quite likely it wouldn't be over in a few weeks (the 'war president' gloss ends when the war ends, see Bush 31). Best of all, it would be virtually immune to being found out since the Chinese would never admit they were tricked.

Missile tests resuming in 2021 could indicate that the Chinese wised up the North Koreans, OR that the US did.

Rate my CT, thankyou

 

[Ug make hammer]

If my "theory" gets to 50 views without one reply, that means it's true. OK?

 

[Ug make hammer]

51 views and no debunk: officially true then. Pompeo and Trump tries to pass a false signal to China, through NKorea, so that China would be the aggressor in Taiwan and get Trump re-elected. The scheme might still be live, though resumption of NKorea missile tests suggests not.

 

[Deuce]

If my "theory" gets to 50 views without one reply, that means it's true. OK?

Your theory isn't getting replies because it's an incoherent wall of text that is inherently unfalsifiable.

I give it a 2 out of 10. One point for being original, one point for simultaneously wondering about both the US and China invading North Korea, something neither country has the slightest bit of interest in doing. Was good for a laugh.

 

[Ug make hammer]

Your theory isn't getting replies because it's an incoherent wall of text that is inherently unfalsifiable.

I give it a 2 out of 10. One point for being original, one point for simultaneously wondering about both the US and China invading North Korea, something neither country has the slightest bit of interest in doing. Was good for a laugh.

Sorry it was too long, but not sorry for laying it out in the sherlock holmes style. The one fact most demanding of explanation is that NKorea stopped nuclear and missile testing after (unknown) negotiations with the US leadership.

How do YOU explain that? Some malarkey about a hotel that they spun at the time? Nukes and missiles, for a hotel? It's laughable.


EDIT: Invading Taiwan was the key. That's something I believe China would do tomorrow if they didn't fear US retribution. You seem to have Taiwan and North Korea confused: they are different countries.

 

[Deuce]

Sorry it was too long, but not sorry for laying it out in the sherlock holmes style. The one fact most demanding of explanation is that NKorea stopped nuclear and missile testing after (unknown) negotiations with the US leadership.

How do YOU explain that? Some malarkey about a hotel that they spun at the time? Nukes and missiles, for a hotel? It's laughable.

I can think of 50 things more likely than Kim Jong-Un giving a shit about Taiwan.

EDIT: Invading Taiwan was the key. That's something I believe China would do tomorrow if they didn't fear US retribution. You seem to have Taiwan and North Korea confused: they are different countries.

Now I see. Practically speaking North Korea has more to fear from China than from the US. Consider: what would the US do if China invaded North Korea? This would make the South less secure, but is that worth it for the US to get into a land war in Asia? On the other hand, what happens if the US invades North Korea?

You wrote it, not me.

 

[Ug make hammer]

I can think of 50 things more likely than Kim Jong-Un giving a shit about Taiwan.



You wrote it, not me.

The point is that if NKorea expects a war in Taiwan, they're under less threat and their whole ideology is based around external threats.
If Pompeo/Trump told them the US wouldn't defend Taiwan, the NKoeans would pass it on with conviction because they want it to be true.

Surely you agree that the US is a more imminent threat to NKorea, than China is?

 

[Deuce]

The point is that if NKorea expects a war in Taiwan, they're under less threat and their whole ideology is based around external threats.
If Pompeo/Trump told them the US wouldn't defend Taiwan, the NKoeans would pass it on with conviction because they want it to be true.

Surely you agree that the US is a more imminent threat to NKorea, than China is?

That doesn't lend evidence to your idea.

Like I said, it's entirely unfalsifiable. There's no evidence to support it and there's no way to actually get evidence for or against it. It's raw speculation based on whatever motive you feel like inventing. Then again, that's generally how conspiracy theories work.

2/10.

I've often remarked that conspiracy theories aren't about believing something that isn't true, but rather having a ridiculous interpretation of something that is true. The old adage about hearing hooves and thinking horses instead of zebras. A conspiracy theorist hears hooves and thinks unicorns. No amount of explanation that unicorns don't exist actually works. They have their "proof." They hear the hooves, you sheeple. Why wont you see the truth about unicorns right in front of you!??

The US isn't a more imminent threat to North Korea than China, no. There's no nation on the entire planet with the slightest bit of interest in invading North Korea. There's absolutely no benefit to doing so. You'd just be inheriting the biggest humanitarian crisis on the planet and have to do yet another multi-decade occupation of yet another country filled with people that hate you. Oh, and you lose the oil resources in exchange for an extremely high-tension border with China that we also have zero interest in.

 

[Ug make hammer]

That doesn't lend evidence to your idea.

Like I said, it's entirely unfalsifiable. There's no evidence to support it

Except the cessation of nuclear and missile testing by North Korea.

You really want to talk me out of my conspiracy? Then give me good reasons why NKorea stopped testing.

and there's no way to actually get evidence for or against it.

Well there is, but it's unlikely. Pompeo might spill the beans.

It's raw speculation based on whatever motive you feel like inventing. Then again, that's generally how conspiracy theories work.

2/10.

I've often remarked that conspiracy theories aren't about believing something that isn't true, but rather having a ridiculous interpretation of something that is true.

Like for instance, NKorea stopping testing of nukes AND missiles. My explanation is better than (a) the US gave them nuclear technology, or even actual nukes, or (b) Donald Trump promised Kim Jong-Un a nice hotel.

(a) is excessive, there's no reason to think that Pompeo/Trump would give away that much. Or trust the NKoreans to keep it secret.
(b) is insufficient. Kim's leadership depends on flamboyant military displays. They must have gotten something worthwhile to hold off the two most flamboyant (nukes and long-range missiles)

Bracketed like that, what's YOUR explanation? You insist there is no phenomenon, yet this is your third post utterly failing to address the question of testing. Which is a phenomenon.

The old adage about hearing hooves and thinking horses instead of zebras. A conspiracy theorist hears hooves and thinks unicorns. No amount of explanation that unicorns don't exist actually works. They have their "proof." They hear the hooves, you sheeple. Why wont you see the truth about unicorns right in front of you!??

The US isn't a more imminent threat to North Korea than China, no.

From the NKorean perspective of course the US is. The US conducts military exercises with SKorea, and sells them arms. The last I checked, US anti-missile technology which very few countries are trusted with, is in SKorea.

China by contrast ignores the international trade sanction with NKorea. They trade and when things are tough in the North, China gives aid to NKorea.

Yes, in their strategy rooms I'm sure NKorea takes seriously the possiblity of China invading. "The greatest refugee problem" as you put it, would be very little trouble for China who have an enormous population and the ability to put immigrants where-ever they please.

There's no nation on the entire planet with the slightest bit of interest in invading North Korea.

NKoreans plainly don't see it that way. Like pretty much any country, they don't see themselves as a shit-hole that's not worth invading.

There's absolutely no benefit to doing so. You'd just be inheriting the biggest humanitarian crisis on the planet and have to do yet another multi-decade occupation of yet another country filled with people that hate you. Oh, and you lose the oil resources in exchange for an extremely high-tension border with China that we also have zero interest in.

It's mindless trivia anyway. You're not addressing the conspiracy theory, only the detail that would make NKorea so proud to be a snitch on Pompeo and Trump. In other words, it goes to motive not to fact.

 

[phoenix2020]

It's been bothering me for a while now. What did President Trump trade away to Kim Jong-Un, in exchange for a cessation of nuclear tests and scaling back of missile tests?

Of course it's possible that Trump threatened Kim, but I doubt that would have much effect. The Kims are born and raised under threat (as they see it.) But still, I was tossing up between "Trump threatened to nuke Pyongyang" and "Trump gave N. Korea nuclear weapons."

Now I see. Practically speaking North Korea has more to fear from China than from the US. Consider: what would the US do if China invaded North Korea? This would make the South less secure, but is that worth it for the US to get into a land war in Asia? On the other hand, what happens if the US invades North Korea? I think it's certain that China would get involved, at least in supply insurgents.

So here's the conspiracy. Pompeo and Trump persuade Kim Jong-Un that the US will not react if China invades Taiwan. Kim believes this, because in his mind Taiwan is a nothing country, not aligned with anyone, weak, capitalist. Pompeo and Trump were counting on this coming through to Xi and the party at around about the same time as (what actually happened) a virus emerged from China. China would probably start by draining all the intelligence possible out of Taiwan (at cost of agents, who will no longer be needed after invasion) and upgrading ports near Taiwan to carry masses of troops.

To me, the most viable attack on Taiwan would be a fast, surprise amphibious assault. Seizing ports (since apparently beaches are all mined) then within 48 hours putting half a million troops (ranging from cadet to elite) on the island. If they did that, the US would be in a state of war without any obvious way to win. They could sink supply ships (the large number of troops would require a lot of supplies) but they wouldn't win any praise for starving the Taiwanese along with the Chinese troops. And then it's election season, and Trump gets a massive War President boost and Republicans win everything.

A possible embellishment on this is that the Chinese worked it out (no-one should ever work on the assumption that the Party lacks good advisors) and struck back with Covid. Another embellishment is that Covid just put a pause on everything, but the conspiracy is still running and Biden is weighing whether to use it for his own re-election.

There's a dynamic to "war President" and it's hard to fake. Lesser conspiracy theorists, seeing the enormous political benefit President Bush 33 got from the WTC and Pentagon attacks, have blown all credibility trying to explain how the US Government (Deep State etc) actually faked the attacks. But they didn't use Occam's Razor: why think good guys are actually bad guys and were manipulated, when manipulating what everyone knows to be bad guys is simpler?

There is no doubt an attempted invasion of Taiwan, or even armed attacks by the PLA, would be a lovely casus belli for the US. It's also quite likely it wouldn't be over in a few weeks (the 'war president' gloss ends when the war ends, see Bush 31). Best of all, it would be virtually immune to being found out since the Chinese would never admit they were tricked.

Missile tests resuming in 2021 could indicate that the Chinese wised up the North Koreans, OR that the US did.

Rate my CT, thankyou

I rate it a 2/10 because you did not account for the possibility that cessation of nuclear testing might be due to no further progress in the NK nuclear weapons program, hence nothing to test.

 

[Ug make hammer]

I rate it a 2/10 because you did not account for the possibility that cessation of nuclear testing might be due to no further progress in the NK nuclear weapons program, hence nothing to test.

They stopped because they just stopped. OK.