The Pollster Who Thinks Trump Is Ahead

[RenoCon]

This is an interesting interview of Robert Cahaly (Trafager Group) by National Review's Rich Lowry demonstrating the faults with most of the other polling organizations. He makes some very good points regarding social-desirability bias and how it effects polling, especially nationally.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/the-pollster-who-thinks-trump-is-ahead/

"Much of Trafalgar’s approach focuses on accounting for the so-called social-desirability bias. As Cahaly puts it, that’s when a respondent gives you “an answer that is designed to make the person asking the question be less judgmental of the person who answers it.” Cahaly notes that this phenomenon showed up as long ago as the 1980s, in the so-called Bradley effect, when the African-American mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley, underperformed his polling in a gubernatorial race. It has been a hallmark of the Trump era and is one reason other pollsters missed the impending victory of Ron DeSantis over Andrew Gillum in the 2018 Florida gubernatorial race."

In spite of the polls generated by MSM and other Democrat shills, Cahaly suggests that Trump is headed to victory. However, if you are a conservative it is still important to get out and vote. If you are a liberal just stay home. All hope is lost.

 

[Jay59]

If Trump wins it will be because his base turns out in force.

For comparison, consider 2018 when the Democrats turned out to flip the House. That was to enable an impeachment push. It seems reasonable there will be a counter push, for payback.

 

[Integrityrespec]

If Trump wins it will be because his base turns out in force.

For comparison, consider 2018 when the Democrats turned out to flip the House. That was to enable an impeachment push. It seems reasonable there will be a counter push, for payback.

Midterm elections are notorious for there "backlash" vote where one party turns out against the Presidents party.

 

[Emily L]

I agree, Reno--no matter how "scientific" a poll claims to be, there are so many factors that can make it unreliable, including the wording and the order of the questions.

 

[ReubenSherr]

This is an interesting interview of Robert Cahaly (Trafager Group) by National Review's Rich Lowry demonstrating the faults with most of the other polling organizations. He makes some very good points regarding social-desirability bias and how it effects polling, especially nationally.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/the-pollster-who-thinks-trump-is-ahead/

"Much of Trafalgar’s approach focuses on accounting for the so-called social-desirability bias. As Cahaly puts it, that’s when a respondent gives you “an answer that is designed to make the person asking the question be less judgmental of the person who answers it.” Cahaly notes that this phenomenon showed up as long ago as the 1980s, in the so-called Bradley effect, when the African-American mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley, underperformed his polling in a gubernatorial race. It has been a hallmark of the Trump era and is one reason other pollsters missed the impending victory of Ron DeSantis over Andrew Gillum in the 2018 Florida gubernatorial race."

In spite of the polls generated by MSM and other Democrat shills, Cahaly suggests that Trump is headed to victory. However, if you are a conservative it is still important to get out and vote. If you are a liberal just stay home. All hope is lost.

Cahaly called the last two Presidential elections spot on.

 

[SonOfDaedalus]

This is an interesting interview of Robert Cahaly (Trafager Group) by National Review's Rich Lowry demonstrating the faults with most of the other polling organizations. He makes some very good points regarding social-desirability bias and how it effects polling, especially nationally.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/the-pollster-who-thinks-trump-is-ahead/

"Much of Trafalgar’s approach focuses on accounting for the so-called social-desirability bias. As Cahaly puts it, that’s when a respondent gives you “an answer that is designed to make the person asking the question be less judgmental of the person who answers it.” Cahaly notes that this phenomenon showed up as long ago as the 1980s, in the so-called Bradley effect, when the African-American mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley, underperformed his polling in a gubernatorial race. It has been a hallmark of the Trump era and is one reason other pollsters missed the impending victory of Ron DeSantis over Andrew Gillum in the 2018 Florida gubernatorial race."

In spite of the polls generated by MSM and other Democrat shills, Cahaly suggests that Trump is headed to victory. However, if you are a conservative it is still important to get out and vote. If you are a liberal just stay home. All hope is lost.

But the polling predicted a blue wave in 2018 and there was a blue wave. Trump tried everything and got his supporters out to vote but Republicans still lost the house and Trump's numbers were down everywhere. Trump has a cult so I'm sure his cult came out to vote in 2018 but they were just outnumbered.

One new factor here is Trump is losing older voters and White women. He's not gaining anywhere.

Plus Trump is now out there campaigning against masks and Dr. Fauci. He's burning down his own campaign.