The one poll to care about today. A solid result for Biden in Pennsylvania.

[Slavister]

Well, maybe - maybe not.

While I tend to agree, there's a variable that needs to be accounted for though: The ratio of early voters to election day voters. Did that change? If so, it needs to be applied to the early voting totals. See what I mean?

So yeah, I believe you're right. It feels right. But I can't prove it arithmetically!

I am sure it DID change. We expect a lot more votes early now than in prior elections. So if you now have 70% early vote, it could very well be that election day will just have the other 30%. However, if you have 100% early vote, I doubt very much you'll have empty polling places on Nov 3...

 

[Chomsky]

I am sure it DID change. We expect a lot more votes early now than in prior elections. So if you now have 70% early vote, it could very well be that election day will just have the other 30%. However, if you have 100% early vote, I doubt very much you'll have empty polling places on Nov 3...

The bolded is exactly the point I'm making. We can't extrapolate the early vote to a total vote, because we're missing the 'x' factor.

As crazy as it sounds, and contrary to popular wisdom, with all the Dem early-voting we could possibly end-up in a scenario where Biden appears to win or be winning early, and Trump lobby's to keep counting! Say, if FL goes for Biden early?

 

[Cardinal]

The bolded is exactly the point I'm making. We can't extrapolate the early vote to a total vote, because we're missing the 'x' factor.

As crazy as it sounds, and contrary to popular wisdom, with all the Dem early-voting we could possibly end-up in a scenario where Biden appears to win or be winning early, and Trump lobby's to keep counting! Say, if FL goes for Biden early?

Unlikely, I think. After the attempt to stop counting in Pennsylvania was shot down, the application s to stop the counting was simply refiled, direct to the Supreme Court. The idea is that it'll be re-ruled upon the seating of Barrett.

Right now Pennsylvania is ground zero for vote suppression.

 

[jdog21]

I think Trump takes Florida and Biden takes Pennsylvania. So in my mind it really comes down to who takes Michigan and Wisconsin.

 

[Slavister]

The bolded is exactly the point I'm making. We can't extrapolate the early vote to a total vote, because we're missing the 'x' factor.

As crazy as it sounds, and contrary to popular wisdom, with all the Dem early-voting we could possibly end-up in a scenario where Biden appears to win or be winning early, and Trump lobby's to keep counting! Say, if FL goes for Biden early?

I think we agree. I was just pointing out that 'x' factor does not matter once we reach 100% of 2016 votes early (and we are on track to do so in some states) - we'll know that turnout will be much larger than 2020 at that point in those swing states.

Of course, there is also a possibility that it's not just 40% of the country that went nuts but say 60% and all those early votes are for Trump... At this point I won't be surprised of anything.

It's also possible all these numbers are made up numbers that Russia is stuffing in after having hacked into election systems.

Possibilities are endless... but for now, I will enjoy what I think is the most likely scenario - country giving a big F U to Trump.

I think Trump takes Florida and Biden takes Pennsylvania. So in my mind it really comes down to who takes Michigan and Wisconsin.

MI is much less in play than WI and PA. I think PA is most questionable right now. RCP even removed MI from toss-up territory (of course it might get added back if polls tighten there again)

 

[Chomsky]

Unlikely, I think. After the attempt to stop counting in Pennsylvania was shot down, the application s to stop the counting was simply refiled, direct to the Supreme Court. The idea is that it'll be re-ruled upon the seating of Barrett.

Right now Pennsylvania is ground zero for vote suppression.

I never said it was likely.

Your point is well taken.

And yes, besides te voter suppression issue I believe PA will be the bellwether state.

 

[Cardinal]

I never said it was likely.

Your point is well taken.

And yes, besides te voter suppression issue I believe PA will be the bellwether state.

I didn't make a typo when I said "vote suppression." Florida, Georgia, Texas and Wisconsin are the kings of voter suppression, but the vote suppression that is and about to happen in Pa is some seriously next level shit. There isn't an advanced democracy on earth that's doing what's happening here.

 

[Chomsky]

I didn't make a typo when I said "vote suppression." Florida, Georgia, Texas and Wisconsin are the kings of voter suppression, but the vote suppression that is and about to happen in Pa is some seriously next level shit. There isn't an advanced democracy on earth that's doing what's happening here.

Agreed.

There's really no choice but to gain control of all three government entities, then do what it takes to expand the Court & add States. I never thought I'd say that, but there it is. That 5-4 decision tossing the voting Rights Act is costing us.

Also, we need to control more state legislature.

 

[Cardinal]

Agreed.

There's really no choice but to gain control of all three government entities, then do what it takes to expand the Court & add States. I never thought I'd say that, but there it is. That 5-4 decision tossing the voting Rights Act is costing us.

Also, we need to control more state legislature.

I've been talking to people on or closer to my side of the political aisle about expanding the courts in order to keep HR1 (passing HR1 is easy; keeping it...not so much), and about roughly half the time I encounter a lot of discomfort at this solution. So I have a simple question: propose a better solution. Thus far I haven't gotten an answer. And the reason for this is as straight forward as it gets: by packing the courts, Republicans left us with literally zero choices if we want to pass so much as a school lunch bill.

 

[Chomsky]

I've been talking to people on or closer to my side of the political aisle about expanding the courts in order to keep HR1 (passing HR1 is easy; keeping it...not so much), and about roughly half the time I encounter a lot of discomfort at this solution. So I have a simple question: propose a better solution. Thus far I haven't gotten an answer. And the reason for this is as straight forward as it gets: by packing the courts, Republicans left us with literally zero choices if we want to pass so much as a school lunch bill.

Let's put it this way: My uncomfortableness with packing the Courts pales in comparison to what I see Trump & the GOP do on a daily basis.

The fact that we need an 8 pt national advantage to pretty much break even in an election, is an afront to democracy.

If it's Constitutional, do it! It's that simple. That's what the Constitution is there for. Let's use it.

Also, I welcome my fellow citizens in D.C. & P.R. getting representation. Good for them. Good for us. Time to end the tyranny of the minority, and get back to democratic principles. Agreed?

 

[Cardinal]

Let's put it this way: My uncomfortableness with packing the Courts pales in comparison to what I see Trump & the GOP do on a daily basis.

The fact that we need an 8 pt national advantage to pretty much break even in an election, is an afront to democracy.

If it's Constitutional, do it! It's that simple. That's what the Constitution is there for. Let's use it.

Also, I welcome my fellow citizens in D.C. & P.R. getting representation. Good for them. Good for us. Time to end the tyranny of the minority, and get back to democratic principles. Agreed?

Hell to the yes.

 

[Chomsky]

Hell to the yes.

You know - Trump has pulled me out of many years of being an Indie, back into the Dem Party. Nobody else could do that. Not even Obama. But Trump did. That's the power of Trump. And to think, I actually looked at him early in '15. It's a strange world we live in!