The New Stain, when it takes hold, will be biblical.

[Lursa]

The strain in Africa has already escaped which means teh vaccine is not the perfect match it is for teh current strains.

"Within the South African COVID strain scientists have found what they're calling an “escape mutation” named E484K. It's feared that this escape mutation will do just what the name implies—allow 501.V2 to escape vaccine antibodies."

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/view/e484k-mutation-might-make-covid-strain-vaccine-resistant

LOL. That strain didnt 'escape' anywhere. That's the informal reference to a mutation that's not affected by a vaccine or other normal immune response.

It's not a verb. Good lord such usage, esp. past tense, is just inflammatory. And I wouldnt have brought it up except that it's exactly what your sentence made me think...and need to clarify.

 

[Peter]

England has had the quadrupling while in a total lockdown.

Try and get your heads around this. 4 fold increase in spite of a full lockdown.

Folks, this is going to be biblical.

You have been warned, best of luck to all.

The figures here are starting to go down now.
I'm back on furlough until the 20th of next month by which time I hope the figures are at least somewhat reasonable.

Covid-19: Further 1,295 deaths recorded in the UK

The latest death and case figures should be a "bitter warning for us all", Public Health England says.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Your number saree always off. We have been losing over 4,000 people a day most days.

--------------------------

Now you are saying we will lose 450,000 a year when we will lose that many for the first full year and we are at the highest lose by far now.

You make no sense.

The daily average is the total number of deaths divided by the number of days since the first death.

If you want to use the rolling seven day average, then that is 3,367 and that would mean 1,228,955.

The odds that there will be NO change in either the infection or death rates from COVID-19 in the coming year are roughly equivalent to the odds that Mr. Trump will be the President of the United States of America on 21 JAN 21.

Since 04 DEC 20 there have been a total of FIVE days when the US daily death toll was 4,000 or higher. FIVE out of FOURTY-FIVE does NOT constitute "most".

Please pay attention to the real data and stop scaremongering.

(More charts and graphs at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19)​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

We lost 3,744 people yesterday. 3,973 before that, 3,930 before that and 4,406 before that.
This is 4013 a day.

At 4,000 a day times 365 we would be at 1,460,000.

This is simple stuff

Why not simply stick with the 4,406 number and then you can claim that the deaths will total 1,608,190 or why not use the 5,074 from 13 JAN 21 and then you can claim that the deaths will total 1,852,010?

Or why not use **D**O*C*T*O*R** Mashmont's 10,300 and really ignore reality?

 

[noonereal]

If you want to use the rolling seven day average, then that is 3,367 and that would mean 1,228,955.

and what did I say

 

[noonereal]

LOL. That strain didnt 'escape' anywhere. That's the informal reference to a mutation that's not affected by a vaccine or other normal immune response.

ROTFLMAO!!!
Do you honestly think this is not understand? The sense of superiority in this post warms my heart.

is just inflammatory

lol, I honestly did find this cleaver word play as your post was designed to flame.
Well done!

Wonderful irony throughout...

peace

 

[noonereal]

Why not simply stick with the 4,406 number and then you can claim that the deaths will total 1,608,190 or why not use the 5,074 from 13 JAN 21 and then you can claim that the deaths will total 1,852,010?

Or why not use **D**O*C*T*O*R** Mashmont's 10,300 and really ignore reality?

My post did not have the intent of prognostication.
My intent was pedestrian, a simple exclamation mark to alert.
Clearly we have become numb to the daily numbers, maybe when the numbers are shown to be north of a million people would be shocked enough to realize that Covid fatigue is unacceptable as is mask disregard.


That said, my claim that at present rate we would lose 1.2 million a year you have now confirmed. So I am a bit miffed at why you appear to be taking issue with my post.

If you want to use the rolling seven day average, then that is 3,367 and that would mean 1,228,955.

BTW
Nothing on this planet confirms much of anything @Mashmont posts.

Peace

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

and what did I say

Your assumption is also that absolutely nothing is going to change in the next 11 months.

I don't have MUCH of a problem in applying that assumption to the next 11 days, but it is completely unwarranted with respect to a time span as long as 11 months.

 

[noonereal]

Your assumption is also that absolutely nothing is going to change in the next 11 months.

I see you did not understand my post or prefer to be needlessly combative.

--------------------------

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

My post did not have the intent of prognostication.
My intent was pedestrian, a simple exclamation mark to alert.
Clearly we have become numb to the daily numbers, maybe when the numbers are shown to be north of a million people would be shocked enough to realize that Covid fatigue is unacceptable as is mask disregard.


That said, my claim that at present rate we would lose 1.2 million a year you have now confirmed. So I am a bit miffed at why you appear to be taking issue with my post.


BTW
Nothing on this planet confirms much of anything @Mashmont posts.

Peace

Indeed, people are either (A) becoming numb to the numbers, (B) becoming numbnuts with respect to the numbers, (C) totally ignoring the numbers if the numbers don't prove what they want them to prove, (D) lying about the numbers, (E) remaining totally ignorant about the numbers, (F) mindlessly accepting what someone with a political agenda says about the numbers, or (G) reporting the numbers consistently.

​

COVID-19 is officially the THIRD largest cause of death in the US. However, looked at on a 265 day basis, and considering that many people who would have otherwise died of Heart Disease will have died early from COVID-19, it is highly likely that COVID-19 is actually the #1 cause of death in the United States of America. At the present rate, the estimated low 365 day death count from COVID-19 exceeds the official annual rate for Cancer (it's 107.81% that of Cancer) and is 99.97% that for Heart Disease. For the estimated high 365 day death count, it is 119.16% that of Cancer and 110.49% that of Heart Disease.

(More charts and graphs at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19)​

I can run the current trends forward for over a year (as I did for MetricMouse yesterday) but do so ONLY with the SPECIFIC DISCLAIMER that I do not expect those long-range projections to be accurate. Even pushing into March 2021 is a bit "iffy".

 

[Lursa]

ROTFLMAO!!!
Do you honestly think this is not understand? The sense of superiority in this post warms my heart.

lol, I honestly did find this cleaver word play as your post was designed to flame.
Well done!

Wonderful irony throughout...

peace

Dont take it so personally. I did want to clarify what you wrote and there are definitely people on this forum that dont understand shit about CV19, communicability and immunity, or science period. It was inflammatory if taken wrong...could scare the more ignorant.

Good lord you are so easily triggered. Take constructive criticism with a little dignity. Or just write, "it's a discussion forum, I was in the middle of a typing and didnt really think about it."

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I see you did not understand my post or prefer to be needlessly combative.

--------------------------

It's quite possible that I did not understand your post.

You did base your projection on the current trend but did not include the caveat that extending the current trend that far was rather unsound.

 

[noonereal]

Good lord you are so easily triggered. Take constructive criticism with a little dignity. Or just write, "it's a discussion forum, I was in the middle of a typing and didnt really think about it."

I think the typical response to this would be along the lines of, "who the hell do you think you are talking to?"

Be that as it may, let me just say that this latest salvo is just as needless as the prior.

Enjoy your day.

 

[noonereal]

did not include the caveat that extending the current trend that far was rather unsound.

I am sure I implied that but if not I think I have since made that clear.

Moving on, a few posts ago you suggested we would lose less than half a million in 2021. Correct?

I am curious as you are studied and considered, on what do you base that estimate?

Thanks

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I am sure I implied that but if not I think I have since made that clear.

Moving on, a few posts ago you suggested we would lose less than half a million in 2021. Correct?

I am curious as you are studied and considered, on what do you base that estimate?

Thanks

IF the current daily average (for the whole period from the day of the first case to today) remains as it is then the deaths for the next 365 days will be 459,031 (that's 1,257.62 x 365).

I expect that that number will continue to increase for as long as the current daily average increases and to decrease when the current daily average decreases.

When COVID-19 finally peaks in the US, they a not unwarranted assumption would be that the final total number of American deaths from COVID-19 will be some number that is less than double the total as of the day of the cresting. What that number is, I have no idea.

​

You might find the performance of the US daily death numbers "interesting" so here is a graph of them. As you can see there is a "lower reported number curve" and an "upper reported number curve". As you can also see, the "upper reported number curve" is increasing faster than the "lower reported number curve" is. You will also find that there is a strong correlation between whether a number is in the "upper reported number" group or in the "lower reported number" group and the day of the week.

​

Back in June people started screaming about a "Huge JUMP" in deaths. You don't really see that in the above graph, do you. In fact what you do see is a reasonably even (amplitude excepted) fluctuation around a base line. In fact, since I started reporting, the NET CHANGE in daily deaths from COVID-19 has been an increase of 13.43 deaths per day. There has been no "wave" in the US but what there has been is an essentially steady increase in the impact of COVID-19 on the American people (which you can see in the charts and tables at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19.

​

 

[Lursa]

I think the typical response to this would be along the lines of, "who the hell do you think you are talking to?"

Be that as it may, let me just say that this latest salvo is just as needless as the prior.

Enjoy your day.

Dont take it so personally. I did want to clarify what you wrote and there are definitely people on this forum that dont understand shit about CV19, communicability and immunity, or science period. It was inflammatory if taken wrong...could scare the more ignorant.

Good lord you are so easily triggered. Take constructive criticism with a little dignity. Or just write, "it's a discussion forum, I was in the middle of a typing and didnt really think about it."

 

[noonereal]

 

[Allan]

The sense of superiority in this post warms my heart.

If you look up 'smarmy' in the dictionary you'll see a picture of her.

 

[noonereal]

Well, just heard a scientist on my TV say essentially what I said in my OP.

COVID is about to explode.

Don't let the current flattening fool you, 2021 will be much worse than was 2020.

Mask up and stop visiting family and friends.

Peace

 

[VySky]

I recall when I was watching the national news at the end of last February in reference to the shutdown in Italy and China. It was pretty surreal and I understood then, we were in for a world of hurt. Kind of was a punch in the stomach to intellectually understand what was about to happen.

Well boys and girls, pay attention to this new strain and prepare NOW.
This has just happened again.

I just did some reading on the new strain and we can expect cases to quadruple, yes I said quadruple.
This will put daily deaths at about 15,000.

England has had the quadrupling while in a total lockdown.

Try and get your heads around this. 4 fold increase in spite of a full lockdown.

Folks, this is going to be biblical.

You have been warned, best of luck to all.

Interesting. I used to drive for Uber during the winter to get out of the house. I quit driving 24 Jan after ending my morning runs. I was concerned about what I was seeing in China. And running daily to BNA was a bad idea. I think Trump shut down travel from China later that day

 

[VySky]

I recall when I was watching the national news at the end of last February in reference to the shutdown in Italy and China. It was pretty surreal and I understood then, we were in for a world of hurt. Kind of was a punch in the stomach to intellectually understand what was about to happen.

Well boys and girls, pay attention to this new strain and prepare NOW.
This has just happened again.

I just did some reading on the new strain and we can expect cases to quadruple, yes I said quadruple.
This will put daily deaths at about 15,000.

England has had the quadrupling while in a total lockdown.

Try and get your heads around this. 4 fold increase in spite of a full lockdown.

Folks, this is going to be biblical.

You have been warned, best of luck to all.

Man I hope you're wrong

 

[Ethel2]

Pfizer have been quoted as saying that the existing vaccine is not only efficacious with the new variant, but is easily modified to cope with any other variants which may emerge. The Moderna vaccine is apparently equally modifiable.

Pfizer vaccine works against coronavirus mutation in UK and S. Africa variants

Vaccines will likely continue to work against these new strains.

www.livescience.com

Pfizer and Moderna do not know if their vaccines are equally efficacious against the mutant strains until it is studied. Furthermore, its not known how much more infectious the new variants are or even if they are more infectious at all. While its likely that they could be more of a problem until the data is in we just don't know. I have not seen a single study that has proven that its more infectious (yes, I believe it is, but I want data).

 

[noonereal]

While its likely that they could be more of a problem until the data is in we just don't know. I have not seen a single study that has proven that its more infectious (yes, I believe it is, but I want data)

How did they come up with this 70% more infectious number without any study?

 

[snakestretcher]

How did they come up with this 70% more infectious number without any study?

I think what they initially said was that it was 70% more transmissible, but the severity of infection appears similar to the 'original' Covid strain. I guess you could extend 'more transmissible' to 'more infectious'.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Interesting. I used to drive for Uber during the winter to get out of the house. I quit driving 24 Jan after ending my morning runs. I was concerned about what I was seeing in China. And running daily to BNA was a bad idea. I think Trump shut down travel from China later that day

The travel shutdown was a failure because the virus was already in other areas. France, Italy and Brazil all likely had cases in November based on testing of sewage. The UK variant already got out of the UK by the time it was mentioned to the world,

The WHO recommends against travel shut downs because by the time they occur it is to late and the virus will spread and not be tested as people think they are safe, a false sense of security