The militarization of Crimea

[Westphalian]

On the contrary, the Putin gang wants to return Russia to old power and that means getting all her former Soviet Republics back, especially the three little Balts. Then grabbing all Eastern European countries back into the power grip of what was Warsaw Pact.

Many may not care all that much about Ukraine but the above is something they SHOULD start caring about. Everything starts somewhere unless the skids are put on it.

Chagos - the para I bolded is wrong.


Russia does not want the Baltic states or the re-creation of the Soviet empire.

But it does want the following:

1. A sphere of vital influence over its near abroad from which the US desists from meddling. Ukraine falls into that category, and the US undoubtedly meddled. We're still picking up the consequences.

2. Recognition of strategic equality with the US, or to put it another way, the US to stop acting as though it alone is exceptional.


Spheres of influence don't mean domination or occupation - they mean the Russia should not face hostile governments on its borders.

Ukraine pre 2014 was able to follow a balanced path. After the CIA inspired coup, that balance has been destroyed. That is the problem from a Russian perspective.

 

[Westphalian]

Russian S-400 missile systems moved to occupied Crimea now control most of the Black Sea region.

Oh hang on RV ....... I'm confused :shock:. The contradictory narratives on Russia are perverse.


We're talking about Nigeria with Snow, the backward state with an economy smaller than Italy.


That state is not capable of developing air defence systems capable of area access denial. That Nigeria with Snow is not capable of stopping the almighty forces of the US navy, even if they are operating thousands of miles from home and without air superiority. That Nigeria with Snow is on the verge of economic and political collapse.


Nigeria with Snow can not control the Black Sea, it can not have a world leading air defence technology, it can not design and build complexes of the sophistication of S-400/500, it can't lead the world in hypersonic missile technology, it can't design submarines of the quality of the Yasen class. It is not possible. Nigeria with Snow can not do these things.

 

[Abbazorkzog]

Russian S-400 missile systems moved to occupied Crimea now control most of the Black Sea region.

Welp. Ukraine is ****ed.

 

[Rexedgar]

Crimea was the ‘ball bag’ of The Ukraine; once you got the ‘ball bag’ the rest will follow in time!

 

[Rogue Valley]

Welp. Ukraine is ****ed.

So are NATO naval ships when Putin decides to expand his piracy to include Bulgarian and Romanian ships and crews.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Crimea was the ‘ball bag’ of The Ukraine; once you got the ‘ball bag’ the rest will follow in time!

There is no nation named "The Ukraine". Just as there exists no The France, The Germany, or The Spain.

There is no article preceding Ukraine. It is simply Ukraine (Україна / Ukrayina).

Russians referred to the nation as 'na Ukraina' (on the Ukraine) when it was part of the USSR.

In Ukrainian language written media the name is oftentimes rendered as 'v Ukrayina' (in Ukraine).

In English and most other Western languages, it is simply Ukraine

 

[Chagos]

Chagos - the para I bolded is wrong.


Russia does not want the Baltic states or the re-creation of the Soviet empire.

But it does want the following:

1. A sphere of vital influence over its near abroad from which the US desists from meddling. Ukraine falls into that category, and the US undoubtedly meddled. We're still picking up the consequences.

2. Recognition of strategic equality with the US, or to put it another way, the US to stop acting as though it alone is exceptional.


Spheres of influence don't mean domination or occupation - they mean the Russia should not face hostile governments on its borders.

Ukraine pre 2014 was able to follow a balanced path. After the CIA inspired coup, that balance has been destroyed. That is the problem from a Russian perspective.

IOW

the Putin gang wants to return Russia to old power and that means getting all her former Soviet Republics back, especially the three little Balts. Then grabbing all Eastern European countries back into the power grip of what was Warsaw Pact.

 

[Chagos]

There is no nation named "The Ukraine". Just as there exists no The France, The Germany, or The Spain.

There is no article preceding Ukraine. It is simply Ukraine (Україна / Ukrayina).

Russians referred to the nation as 'na Ukraina' (on the Ukraine) when it was part of the USSR.

In Ukrainian language written media the name is oftentimes rendered as 'v Ukrayina' (in Ukraine).

In English and most other Western languages, it is simply Ukraine

prefacing it with the definite article (in languages other than Ukrainian) is a leftover from times before its independence.

Germans still do it today by calling the country die Ukraine (feminine) and the French also preface it as L'Ukraine. But then again they also refer to theirs as La France and to Russia often as La Russie.

 

[beerftw]

IOW

the Putin gang wants to return Russia to old power and that means getting all her former Soviet Republics back, especially the three little Balts. Then grabbing all Eastern European countries back into the power grip of what was Warsaw Pact.

He is correct russia is not seeking to get all those states back, but it is wanting influence over it's neighbors being the big dog in the neighborhood. Russia by itself since the 2008 georgia invasion has been modernizing it's military to cope with the logistics reality the soviet logistics worked well when there was a soviet union, and that they had ignored that fact for over a decade. Currently russia is modernizing fast enough where in a decade it might surpass the power of the soviet union even without the soviet union manpower.

The problem is most of the soviet union including the baltic states were nothing more than shields for moscow, in terms of raw power and productivity, only ukraine was useful as ukraine during the soviet union surpassed russia in gdp, between post stalin I am sorry for starving you guys initiatives and ukraines black soil, ukrain became a power house economically. Now ukraine let all of it go to waste after they became independant, however the potential and intellect is still there, if russia needed a country to rebuild soviet power, it is just ukraine, any other countries would only be needed as shields and not high on anyones list to gain unless they felt ww3 was imminent.

 

[Chagos]

He is correct russia is not seeking to get all those states back, but it is wanting influence over it's neighbors being the big dog in the neighborhood. Russia by itself since the 2008 georgia invasion has been modernizing it's military to cope with the logistics reality the soviet logistics worked well when there was a soviet union, and that they had ignored that fact for over a decade. Currently russia is modernizing fast enough where in a decade it might surpass the power of the soviet union even without the soviet union manpower.

The problem is most of the soviet union including the baltic states were nothing more than shields for moscow, in terms of raw power and productivity, only ukraine was useful as ukraine during the soviet union surpassed russia in gdp, between post stalin I am sorry for starving you guys initiatives and ukraines black soil, ukrain became a power house economically. Now ukraine let all of it go to waste after they became independant, however the potential and intellect is still there, if russia needed a country to rebuild soviet power, it is just ukraine, any other countries would only be needed as shields and not high on anyones list to gain unless they felt ww3 was imminent.

I'm fully aware of the difference between what Putin and gang would like and what they're actually gonna do by way of what is possible.

That changes nothing in what they actually desire and breaking the Balts and former "Warsawers" back out of NATO would please them greatly.

To assume anything other is what I'd call naive.

 

[beerftw]

I'm fully aware of the difference between what Putin and gang would like and what they're actually gonna do by way of what is possible.

That changes nothing in what they actually desire and breaking the Balts and former "Warsawers" back out of NATO would please them greatly.

To assume anything other is what I'd call naive.

Well breaking the baltics out of nato is different than taking them, breaking them from nato is less war and more playing economic games and funding proxies to destabilize a nation. Taking those nations would be was, not only involving nato, but also with a small gain for a massive price tag and gamble.

They can desire all they want, but even if putin desired it, he is practical in his projection of power, and knows where he can get away with it and where he can not, the soviet power could be made just within russia, the benefits would increase greatly with ukraine, however the other states are not worth putins time especially since many of them are in nato, just as nato will not invade russian land and sea over a squabble, neither will russia do the same against nato as their is no winner in that situation.

 

[Chagos]

Well breaking the baltics out of nato is different than taking them, breaking them from nato is less war and more playing economic games and funding proxies to destabilize a nation. Taking those nations would be was, not only involving nato, but also with a small gain for a massive price tag and gamble.

They can desire all they want, but even if putin desired it, he is practical in his projection of power, and knows where he can get away with it and where he can not, the soviet power could be made just within russia, the benefits would increase greatly with ukraine, however the other states are not worth putins time especially since many of them are in nato, just as nato will not invade russian land and sea over a squabble, neither will russia do the same against nato as their is no winner in that situation.

Well, if after Crimea and the ongoing invasion of Donbass the Kremlin harbors any hopes of Ukraine sinking into its arms enthusiastically, time to take the vodka with a helluva lot more water.

 

[Westphalian]

Well, if after Crimea and the ongoing invasion of Donbass the Kremlin harbors any hopes of Ukraine sinking into its arms enthusiastically, time to take the vodka with a helluva lot more water.

You keep repeating the mantra of 'ongoing invasion of Donbas' but of course Russia has made no attempt to annex Donbas despite those republics voting for it, and despite having ample opportunity to do so.

This gives the lie to your claim that Russia wants Ukraine and the Baltics back. But why let inconvenient truths get in the way of your narrative?

I'm afraid that many people in the west are so soaked in nonsense propaganda that they are simply blind to reality. Not saying that of yourself because you are more nuanced than most, but it's important to understand that Russia is a great power, and that it wants a neutral buffer zone between itself and the hostile US led NATO armies. That's what Ukraine is all about. It's existential to Russia, but it's just a toy with which to provoke Russia for the US. That's why, ultimately, Ukraine must reconcile with Russia, and why there will only ever be one loser if this farce continues.


As I've said repeatedly, we all know that the US will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian but not to the first American.

 

[Surrealistik]

You keep repeating the mantra of 'ongoing invasion of Donbas' but of course Russia has made no attempt to annex Donbas despite those republics voting for it, and despite having ample opportunity to do so.

This gives the lie to your claim that Russia wants Ukraine and the Baltics back. But why let inconvenient truths get in the way of your narrative?

I'm afraid that many people in the west are so soaked in nonsense propaganda that they are simply blind to reality. Not saying that of yourself because you are more nuanced than most, but it's important to understand that Russia is a great power, and that it wants a neutral buffer zone between itself and the hostile US led NATO armies. That's what Ukraine is all about. It's existential to Russia, but it's just a toy with which to provoke Russia for the US. That's why, ultimately, Ukraine must reconcile with Russia, and why there will only ever be one loser if this farce continues.


As I've said repeatedly, we all know that the US will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian but not to the first American.

Russia hasn't been a 'great power' for some time now (nor will it become one in the foreseeable future) much as it may try or pretend to be; it's a regional power at best.

 

[Westphalian]

Russia hasn't been a 'great power' for some time now (nor will it become one in the foreseeable future) much as it may try or pretend to be; it's a regional power at best.

So Obama said before he ran into a dreadful mess over Syria which he couldn't resolve because of the Russian involvement.

Last time I checked Syria wasn't in Russia's region.

Neither can the US escape the inescapable truth that Russia, uniquely, retains the power to destroy the US.

So your comment is an old canard which is from the same school as the Nigeria with Snow mantra.

 

[Surrealistik]

So Obama said before he ran into a dreadful mess over Syria which he couldn't resolve because of the Russian involvement.

Last time I checked Syria wasn't in Russia's region.

Neither can the US escape the inescapable truth that Russia, uniquely, retains the power to destroy the US.

So your comment is an old canard which is from the same school as the Nigeria with Snow mantra.

To the contrary, the 'old canard' would be the blatant misconception that Russia is still a great power: nukes alone do not make a world/great power, nor does the ability to hamper US foreign policy beyond the confines of your immediate neighbours; don't be ridiculous.

If that were the case, we might well consider Israel, the UK, France and so on all great powers which they are clearly not. The only political entity/country other than the US that might arguably be able to lay claim to such a designation would be China, or the EU collectively.

 

[Westphalian]

To the contrary, the 'old canard' would be the blatant misconception that Russia is still a great power: nukes alone do not make a world/great power, nor does the ability to hamper US foreign policy beyond the confines of your immediate neighbours; don't be ridiculous.

If that were the case, we might well consider Israel, the UK, France and so on all great powers which they are clearly not. The only political entity/country other than the US that might arguably be able to lay claim to such a designation would be China, or the EU collectively.

But you first described Russia as a 'regional power' at best.

I would say Russia is an extra regional power which is able to achieve far greater global influence than its economic size might predict due to its military power.

The EU and its constituent states by contrast punch so far under their weight for the converse reason (apart from also being a US satellite).

The issue of nuclear weapons is crucial too. Russia is able to resist the US precisely because it is immune to US military pressure. That is not the case for Israel, France etc which are virtual foreign policy colonies of the US.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Russia is a mafia-run gas station with nuclear weapons.

 

[Surrealistik]

But you first described Russia as a 'regional power' at best.

I would say Russia is an extra regional power which is able to achieve far greater global influence than its economic size might predict due to its military power.

The EU and its constituent states by contrast punch so far under their weight for the converse reason (apart from also being a US satellite).

The issue of nuclear weapons is crucial too. Russia is able to resist the US precisely because it is immune to US military pressure. That is not the case for Israel, France etc which are virtual foreign policy colonies of the US.

If the EU punches under its weight in terms of international influence, it would be because it is more insular and less interested in projection, largely due to the paralyzing need for consensus and its population's distaste for war/armed interventions/military interventionism, not because it has a smaller military nor because it is a 'US satellite' which it clearly isn't, especially now in the Trump era where considerable US influence and good will with the bloc has been burnt per his myopic policies.

As to immunity to US military pressure, Israel and France almost certainly have developed nuclear failsafes ( example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option ) as well as the UK; that having been pointed out I'm not sure why you think that they fear or are otherwise influenced by the threat of US military force that has never really been leveraged against them in the first place in contemporary times.

Lastly, Russian military power in disproportion to its economy comes at a great cost to its people and primarily serves the interests of a rarefied elite (something it notably has in common with the States, though as a % of GDP, its situation is even worse).

I will admit that calling Russia a 'regional power at best' is minimizing hyperbole as it is clearly a regional power, but it is certainly not much beyond that, nor will it be.

 

[beerftw]

Well, if after Crimea and the ongoing invasion of Donbass the Kremlin harbors any hopes of Ukraine sinking into its arms enthusiastically, time to take the vodka with a helluva lot more water.

Russia will probably get ukraine back on it's side but militarily is not going to be it, atleast not now, things may change in the future. What russia is doing is bankrupting a broke country, they are relying on imf loans and have already been in a technichal default, they can't even afford to run their country and by comparison ukraine makes russia look like the richest nation on earth. Unless the west dumps money into ukraine instead of loaning them money demanding payback, ukraine will go broke and with russia willing to fund their country and loan them the money easy they will at some point run back.


Think of it like a bank that worked to make sure you were as broke as possible to ensure you needed their money, kinda like a mafia bank.

 

[Chagos]

Russia will probably get ukraine back on it's side but militarily is not going to be it, atleast not now, things may change in the future. What russia is doing is bankrupting a broke country, they are relying on imf loans and have already been in a technichal default, they can't even afford to run their country and by comparison ukraine makes russia look like the richest nation on earth. Unless the west dumps money into ukraine instead of loaning them money demanding payback, ukraine will go broke and with russia willing to fund their country and loan them the money easy they will at some point run back.


Think of it like a bank that worked to make sure you were as broke as possible to ensure you needed their money, kinda like a mafia bank.

I was actually speaking of the psychological angle of things. Like contempt and even hatred being pretty lousy basis for friendship.

 

[Rogue Valley]

I was actually speaking of the psychological angle of things. Like contempt and even hatred being pretty lousy basis for friendship.

The vast majority of Ukrainians are done with Russian "friendship".

Virtually everyone in Ukraine has been darkened by Russia's actions in Crimea and Donbas.....

12,000+ dead, 22,000+ wounded, 1.5 million displaced, thousands of widows and orphans, 64,000 structures destroyed, severe environmental damage in Donbas, the loss of the Crimea oblast, and the list goes on and on.

Now we have to add Russian piracy and kidnapping on the high seas to the list.

 

[Westphalian]

The vast majority of Ukrainians are done with Russian "friendship".

Virtually everyone in Ukraine has been darkened by Russia's actions in Crimea and Donbas.....

12,000+ dead, 22,000+ wounded, 1.5 million displaced, thousands of widows and orphans, 64,000 structures destroyed, severe environmental damage in Donbas, the loss of the Crimea oblast, and the list goes on and on.

Now we have to add Russian piracy and kidnapping on the high seas to the list.

Just for clarity, you do realise it is Ukraine which is destroying Donbas?

You do realise it was Ukraine which deliberately sailed warships into Russian waters?

You do realise that the death in Donbas is caused by Kiev firing mortars with total incompetence into civilian structures?

Remaining civilians in Donbas are very well aware of who is attacking them, their schools, hospital, kindergartens.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Just for clarity, you do realise it is Ukraine which is destroying Donbas?

You do realise it was Ukraine which deliberately sailed warships into Russian waters?

You do realise that the death in Donbas is caused by Kiev firing mortars with total incompetence into civilian structures?

Remaining civilians in Donbas are very well aware of who is attacking them, their schools, hospital, kindergartens.

Just for further clarity, you do realize that you are lying?

 

[Chagos]

Just for further clarity, you do realize that you are lying?

Like German invasion of Poland having been due to Poland attacking first, Italian attempt (badly failed) to invade Greece having been down to Greece attacking first.

Yeah, some people would fit well into the Goebbels crowd. Except, of course, for being so bad at the propaganda game that they'd have been fired in Josef's time.