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The militarization of Crimea

Rogue Valley

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The escalation in the Azov Sea should not be seen in a vacuum. Solid reminder by Ukraine regarding RU land, naval and air capabilities on illegally occupied Crimea.

This is an unsinkable aircraft carrier and a true A2/AD fortress.


Ds9dnSbW0AEuXFq.jpg

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Rexedgar

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RV, what do you think will happen in the region? How do the Ukraine military stack up to Russian forces?
 

JANFU

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RV, what do you think will happen in the region? How do the Ukraine military stack up to Russian forces?
Last thing Ukraine should do is enter into open war with Russia
Comparable to how the Russians did against the Nazis initial invasion. It would be an utter rout of Ukrainian forces
It would be an utter route. Eastern Ukraine would split and become a so called Independent State as we have seen in Georgia and other places.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Transnistria
 
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Rogue Valley

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RV, what do you think will happen in the region? How do the Ukraine military stack up to Russian forces?

JANFU is correct (Post #3).

Even though Ukraine has the second largest standing military in Europe (Russia is 1st), it doesn't stack up to Russian forces. None do. For example, Russia has more battle tanks in the occupied territories alone than the entire German military possesses. Russia has many army divisions always parked on major highways (about 17 miles from the border) leading to Ukraine and ~5 new military bases ringing the eastern Ukraine border. This is why Ukraine must be extremely careful in responding to Putin's provocations. Not even the US would want to tangle with Russia on her turf (short supply lines).

If a major invasion did happen, the US would not directly assist Ukraine nor would NATO. Belarus would remain neutral. I have no doubts that Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, and Romania would send weapons and "volunteers". Ukraine has ~45 million people and many hundreds of thousands now have very good (NATO) military training. Putin no doubt knows that his occupation forces would bleed badly (via partisan attacks) in any wholesale invasion. Also, Russian speaking Ukrainians would take the fight to Russia proper with attacks. In addition, the severest sanctions would be levied (SWIFT denial etc). What Putin desires is for Ukraine's democracy to fail politically via "Russia-fatigue" and see Russia-friendly officials again running things in Kyiv. I personally don't believe this is possible. The war is now in its fifth year. Almost everyone in Ukraine has been affected in various ways. Too much blood has been shed and too many promises broken. It will be a long, long time before Ukrainians befriend any Russian government. Moscow will never again be trusted to honor treaties etc. I myself fully expect Ukraine to surreptitiously develop nuclear weapons. It's the only insurance policy strong enough without NATO membership and living right next to Putin's aggressive military behemoth.
 

DaveFagan

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RV, what do you think will happen in the region? How do the Ukraine military stack up to Russian forces?
The USA/CIA/NED initiated the Coup d'Etat in a bankrupt Ukraine and failed miserably in gaining popular support of the Coup. Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk did not approve of the new gov't. The new Ukraine gov't toadies were installed with approximately 13% of eligible voters. The Crimeans VOTED to be annexed by Russian. Donetsk and Luhansk requested to be annexed by Russia. The USA will make a big PR MSM push to make Russia the bad guy in the MSM that they control. Ukraine ripped Russia off for years by stealing huge volumes of the Russian Natu;ral Gas being shipped through Ukraine in pipelines. Ukraine is currently attempting to stiff Russia on a $3 billion debt. At the time of the Coup d'Etat in Ukraine Russia had 25,000 military personnel stationed in Crimea, and were not invaders. The scumbag, bankrupt Ukraine gov't is kept afloat by USA sponsored loans, grants, and aid. The current results of the Naval Blockade an Kerst is the reason Russia did not allow Crimea to fall to Western hegemony. We can't ignore the history that Crimea had been a part of Russia, not so long ago. Would you want the scumbag billionaires that the USA promoted in Ukraine running your Nations. That's a big Hell No! The USA created this imbroglio by interfering in another foreign gov't. USA electioneering in Russia's backdoor. If the USA had not interfered, Ukraine and Russia could have worked out a mutually satisfactory solution, but with the current batch of toadies in Kiev being supported by USA/CIA/NED destabilization is assured. It's the only way they can stay in power. Perhaps in the next election Ukrainians will realize that an alliance with the West has significant disadvantages and dangers. We, the USA, are not the good guys, but manipulatinf "INTERESTS' for USA Corporate. Poroshenko would be wise to offer Russia a big box of chocolates and offer to seriously work out their differences. Crimea will not be on the table. There is no chance that the Ukraine military can stand up to Russian forces, but there is 100% chance that the USA would encourage Poroshenko to commit to military action to destabilize Ukraine to USA advantage. Wars are expensive and the USA would own the War Loans and gain the collaterol day by day. The IMF would own Ukraine. Standard operating procedure. The myths about " freedom and democracy " are just that , Myths. Interests, Corporatism, Economic control, hegemony are reality./
 
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Fledermaus

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The USA/CIA/NED initiated the Coup d'Etat in a bankrupt Ukraine and failed miserably in gaining popular support of the Coup. Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk did not approve of the new gov't. The new Ukraine gov't toadies were installed with approximately 13% of eligible voters. The Crimeans VOTED to be annexed by Russian. Donetsk and Luhansk requested to be annexed by Russia. The USA will make a big PR MSM push to make Russia the bad guy in the MSM that they control. Ukraine ripped Russia off for years by stealing huge volumes of the Russian Natu;ral Gas being shipped through Ukraine in pipelines. Ukraine is currently attempting to stiff Russia on a $3 billion debt. At the time of the Coup d'Etat in Ukraine Russia had 25,000 military personnel stationed in Crimea, and were not invaders. The scumbag, bankrupt Ukraine gov't is kept afloat by USA sponsored loans, grants, and aid. The current results of the Naval Blockade an Kerst is the reason Russia did not allow Crimea to fall to Western hegemony. We can't ignore the history that Crimea had been a part of Russia, not so long ago. Would you want the scumbag billionaires that the USA promoted in Ukraine running your Nations. That's a big Hell No! The USA created this imbroglio by interfering in another foreign gov't. USA electioneering in Russia's backdoor. If the USA had not interfered, Ukraine and Russia could have worked out a mutually satisfactory solution, but with the current batch of toadies in Kiev being supported by USA/CIA/NED destabilization is assured. It's the only way they can stay in power. Perhaps in the next election Ukrainians will realize that an alliance with the West has significant disadvantages and dangers. We, the USA, are not the good guys, but manipulatinf "INTERESTS' for USA Corporate. Poroshenko would be wise to offer Russia a big box of chocolates and offer to seriously work out their differences. Crimea will not be on the table. There is no chance that the Ukraine military can stand up to Russian forces, but there is 100% chance that the USA would encourage Poroshenko to commit to military action to destabilize Ukraine to USA advantage. Wars are expensive and the USA would own the War Loans and gain the collaterol day by day. The IMF would own Ukraine. Standard operating procedure. The myths about " freedom and democracy " are just that , Myths. Interests, Corporatism, Economic control, hegemony are reality./

This long, somewhat disjointed, lacking in paragraphs and Russian biased rant is brought to you by.....

TASS, When you care enough to project the best propaganda.

RT.COM, Where it doesn't have to make sense to the Western world. Only that it be Russian.

And SPUTNIK, where truth is what we say it is....

With additional funding by I ♥ Putin.
 

Chagos

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JANFU is correct (Post #3).

Even though Ukraine has the second largest standing military in Europe (Russia is 1st), it doesn't stack up to Russian forces. None do. For example, Russia has more battle tanks in the occupied territories alone than the entire German military possesses. Russia has many army divisions always parked on major highways (about 17 miles from the border) leading to Ukraine and ~5 new military bases ringing the eastern Ukraine border. This is why Ukraine must be extremely careful in responding to Putin's provocations. Not even the US would want to tangle with Russia on her turf (short supply lines).

If a major invasion did happen, the US would not directly assist Ukraine nor would NATO. Belarus would remain neutral. I have no doubts that Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, and Romania would send weapons and "volunteers". Ukraine has ~45 million people and many hundreds of thousands now have very good (NATO) military training. Putin no doubt knows that his occupation forces would bleed badly (via partisan attacks) in any wholesale invasion. Also, Russian speaking Ukrainians would take the fight to Russia proper with attacks. In addition, the severest sanctions would be levied (SWIFT denial etc). What Putin desires is for Ukraine's democracy to fail politically via "Russia-fatigue" and see Russia-friendly officials again running things in Kyiv. I personally don't believe this is possible. The war is now in its fifth year. Almost everyone in Ukraine has been affected in various ways. Too much blood has been shed and too many promises broken. It will be a long, long time before Ukrainians befriend any Russian government. Moscow will never again be trusted to honor treaties etc. I myself fully expect Ukraine to surreptitiously develop nuclear weapons. It's the only insurance policy strong enough without NATO membership and living right next to Putin's aggressive military behemoth.
Yes, apart from the West heavily increasing sanctions, Ukraine herself can do little other than make any further Russian invasion of its sovereign land as perceptibly unpalatable (expensive) as possible. IOW shore up "defensive".

"Offensive" is out of the question.
 

Chagos

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This long, somewhat disjointed, lacking in paragraphs and Russian biased rant is brought to you by.....
those without sufficient wherewithal to realize that the tl;dr flag rises immediately.
 

JANFU

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Yes, apart from the West heavily increasing sanctions, Ukraine herself can do little other than make any further Russian invasion of its sovereign land as perceptibly unpalatable (expensive) as possible. IOW shore up "defensive".

"Offensive" is out of the question.

Sanctions are not having the effect people hoped for
Listing top 100 Oligarchs in Russia
Implement sanctions on them, start with so many, keep on expanding and include their families and relatives. Brothers, sisters, parents, cousins, and anyone with a net with over an X amount
At the same time start negotiations over Ukraine.

The fly in the ointment is Crimea and Russia will not cede Crimea back to Ukraine. Putin may as well commit suicide if he did.
So what is the answer to Crimea?






https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_people_by_net_worth
 

DaveFagan

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This long, somewhat disjointed, lacking in paragraphs and Russian biased rant is brought to you by.....

TASS, When you care enough to project the best propaganda.

RT.COM, Where it doesn't have to make sense to the Western world. Only that it be Russian.

And SPUTNIK, where truth is what we say it is....

With additional funding by I ♥ Putin.

Not to worry. The Pentagon will send you a check for that fieldmouse dropping.
/
 

Chagos

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Sanctions are not having the effect people hoped for
Listing top 100 Oligarchs in Russia
Implement sanctions on them, start with so many, keep on expanding and include their families and relatives. Brothers, sisters, parents, cousins, and anyone with a net with over an X amount
At the same time start negotiations over Ukraine.
................................hit the (Russian) banks, S.W.I.F.T. etc.
The fly in the ointment is Crimea and Russia will not cede Crimea back to Ukraine. Putin may as well commit suicide if he did.
So what is the answer to Crimea?
I'm fortunately not in a position (qualified) to say, seeing how I'm not Ukrainian.

But as someone not having any horse in any race, I'd propose to let Russia keep it but at the price of getting out of Donetsk and Luhansk and ceasing any future meddling there.

But any compromise would necessitate someone sitting in the Kremlin who WILL compromise.

It's all very well for Putin to blabber on about Poroshenko manipulating his ratings but old Vlad is in the same boat. As in 2014 when invading Crimea got him out of his ratings doldrums in Russia, this whole Kerch incident is clearly designed to achieve the same today.

When your popularity plunges at home, get your country involved in the jingoism of a war.

Ask Maggie Thatcher.
 

Westphalian

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All sounds a little desperate to me.

Two Presidents, one facing re-election in 3 months with 8% support, the other never facing re-election again and with 40+% support.

And we asked to believe that they both have a similar incentive to start a conflict.

Hmmmmmm ......... I think even the EU can see behind this Kerch fiasco, and that's without the captured Ukrainian intelligence officers telling them that their orders were to provoke.
 

DaveFagan

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Another gem from Mr. RT....

Have you any idea how Russian Propaganda you sound?

I only observe your absolute lack of addressing the topic. Ignorance of the topic would be a palpable excuse in your case. Don't forget to wipe.
/
 

JANFU

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................................hit the (Russian) banks, S.W.I.F.T. etc.
I'm fortunately not in a position (qualified) to say, seeing how I'm not Ukrainian.

But as someone not having any horse in any race, I'd propose to let Russia keep it but at the price of getting out of Donetsk and Luhansk and ceasing any future meddling there.

But any compromise would necessitate someone sitting in the Kremlin who WILL compromise.

It's all very well for Putin to blabber on about Poroshenko manipulating his ratings but old Vlad is in the same boat. As in 2014 when invading Crimea got him out of his ratings doldrums in Russia, this whole Kerch incident is clearly designed to achieve the same today.

When your popularity plunges at home, get your country involved in the jingoism of a war.

Ask Maggie Thatcher.

I think we all have a horse in the race. As whatever actions taken impact us all in some way, small or large.
From what little I know Crimea had been Russian territory for a few centuries.
 

Vlad Dreamer

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But as someone not having any horse in any race, I'd propose to let Russia keep it but at the price of getting out of Donetsk and Luhansk and ceasing any future meddling there.
I just want that humanity have an ability to learn historic lessons. If somebody told me that Ukraine should compromise with Russia by gifting it part of its own territory (I mean Crimea) instead of Russia return back occupied Donbas regions I just want to remind the case of “pacification of aggressor” before the start of WW II. When the world community try to influence the aggressive Hitler’s policy. The result is well known to all of us and I’m sure that in the deal with modern “Hitler” we will receive the same one.
 

Westphalian

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JANFU is correct (Post #3).

Moscow will never again be trusted to honor treaties etc. I myself fully expect Ukraine to surreptitiously develop nuclear weapons. It's the only insurance policy strong enough without NATO membership and living right next to Putin's aggressive military behemoth.


This is the most wonderful example of irony laced with total lack of self awareness I've seen for a long time.

1. Russia won't ever be trusted to honor treaties - this coming from an American :lamo.

2. Next sentence - the author expects Ukraine, a signatory to the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty, to secretly develop nuclear weapons :roll:.



Not a good outlook for international trust or the future of any arms control / non proliferation regime - coming on the heels of the US withdrawal from the INF treaty.
 

Chagos

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I just want that humanity have an ability to learn historic lessons. If somebody told me that Ukraine should compromise with Russia by gifting it part of its own territory (I mean Crimea) instead of Russia return back occupied Donbas regions I just want to remind the case of “pacification of aggressor” before the start of WW II. When the world community try to influence the aggressive Hitler’s policy. The result is well known to all of us and I’m sure that in the deal with modern “Hitler” we will receive the same one.
I understand your stance.

However I was speaking of practicality.
 

Chagos

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All sounds a little desperate to me.

Two Presidents, one facing re-election in 3 months with 8% support, the other never facing re-election again and with 40+% support.

And we asked to believe that they both have a similar incentive to start a conflict.

Hmmmmmm ......... I think even the EU can see behind this Kerch fiasco, and that's without the captured Ukrainian intelligence officers telling them that their orders were to provoke.
Anything told by anyone in Russian captivity can safely be dismissed as being coerced.

Beyond which, you'd be surprised what even the EU can see. For instance when somebody is clearly reading from a script.
 

Chagos

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I think we all have a horse in the race. As whatever actions taken impact us all in some way, small or large.
At the end of the day, yeah sure.
From what little I know Crimea had been Russian territory for a few centuries.
Most Russians believe that the whole Ukraine was always Russian. Meanwhile most Ukrainians believe that without Ukraine there wouldn't even be any Russians.

If we're going to unravel that crap pile of history, most of us have to give back what we sit on to somebody else.

My point being in this particular instance that no way is Ukraine going to get Crimea back. It doesn't have the clout to take it and the West doesn't have the will to take it and hand it back over. So, like Germany with its Eastern lands, it might be prudent to grant what is already lost anyway, so as to be able to get on with normalization of future relations.

But with the Kremlin in its current composition, that's not gonna happen.

On the contrary, the Putin gang wants to return Russia to old power and that means getting all her former Soviet Republics back, especially the three little Balts. Then grabbing all Eastern European countries back into the power grip of what was Warsaw Pact.

Many may not care all that much about Ukraine but the above is something they SHOULD start caring about. Everything starts somewhere unless the skids are put on it.
 

Chagos

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This is the most wonderful example of irony laced with total lack of self awareness I've seen for a long time.

1. Russia won't ever be trusted to honor treaties - this coming from an American ...........................~
Well, I'm not American and I've never, ever trusted the Kremlin. I've seen it at work in Eastern Europe and, not exactly an Eastern European country, Germany.

I've also seen it at work in the Middle East and various corners of the Far East, as well as the Caribbean.

2. Next sentence - the author expects Ukraine, a signatory to the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty, to secretly develop nuclear weapons :roll:.
I think it's about as plausible as both France and Britain seeing themselves as being nuclear powers. Kinda like the misguidedly enamoured ant crawling up the legs of elephants and promising to be gentle.:lol:

But they can always throw in a cheer.:2razz:
Not a good outlook for international trust or the future of any arms control / non proliferation regime - coming on the heels of the US withdrawal from the INF treaty.
As usual, nothing at all to do with anything here.
 

DaveFagan

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More pablum...

Stop regurgitating RT talking points...

That's humorous. You, the Peat of "peat and repeat" notoriety. Why don't you give us next week's talking points. I'll help. Russia bad. China bad. Kim bad. Iran bad. USA heppin' the World to the "shining house on the hill," where all the bodies are buried? Libyans, Iraqis, Syrians, Yemenis, dtc.
/
 

Fledermaus

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That's humorous. You, the Peat of "peat and repeat" notoriety. Why don't you give us next week's talking points. I'll help. Russia bad. China bad. Kim bad. Iran bad. USA heppin' the World to the "shining house on the hill," where all the bodies are buried? Libyans, Iraqis, Syrians, Yemenis, dtc.
/

When Russia does something bad I am free to point it out. And you are free to regurgitate Russian propaganda in response. And I am free to mock you for doing so.

As to dead Iraqis... Blame Saddam for being a recalcitrant SOB. Had he not been an idiot he might still be in power.

And the North Koreans? Yeah, about as bad as it gets for a supposedly civilized nation. Interesting how you defend that rogue state. A virtual concentration camp. You almost reach Radio Pyongyang level propagandist BS when speaking of them.

And your love of Assad in Syria is both interesting and disgusting. A one party virtual dictatorship for decades.

Gaddafi was a mixed bag. And a victim of Arab Spring.

What is it about you and despotic dictatorships? Why do you cry at their downfall?
 

Rogue Valley

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DtFwAP6XQAARj6Z.jpg


Russian S-400 missile systems moved to occupied Crimea now control most of the Black Sea region.
 
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