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The London Conference on Climate Change 2016 Thomas Wysmuller (Sea Level)

Steve Case

Steve Case

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The London Conference on Climate Change 2016 Thomas Wysmuller (Sea Level)

A good run down on sea level claims that show up in the popular press. We've all seen them,
so many feet of sea level rise by 2050 and 2100 with maps and diagrams of what the world will
look like by then. Anybody with a hand held calculator or pencil and paper can do the arithmetic
to demonstrate that such claims are require rates of sea level rise ten times what they are today.

The question needs to be asked as to when the run-up to such high rates will begin to happen?



18 minutes
 
Last edited:
Steve Case said:
The London Conference on Climate Change 2016 Thomas Wysmuller (Sea Level)

A good run down on sea level claims that show up in the popular press. We've all seen them,
so many feet of sea level rise by 2050 and 2100 with maps and diagrams of what the world will
look like by then. Anybody with a hand held calculator or pencil and paper can do the arithmetic
to demonstrate that such claims are require rates of sea level rise ten times what they are today.

The question needs to be asked as to when the run-up to such high rates will begin to happen?

18 minutes
Click to expand...
What is even worse for such predictions, is that each year that passes, makes the inflection point closer,
which means the slope would have to be even steeper.
 
longview said:
What is even worse for such predictions, is that each year that passes, makes the inflection point closer,
which means the slope would have to be even steeper.
Click to expand...

I've been commenting on news articles since 2010 and yeah, back then it was 90 years off, now it's only 87.

Well, Colorado University's Sea Level Research Group is over due for 2017 Release 1.
I'm expecting them to jack the numbers up.
 
Steve Case said:
I've been commenting on news articles since 2010 and yeah, back then it was 90 years off, now it's only 87.

Well, Colorado University's Sea Level Research Group is over due for 2017 Release 1.
I'm expecting them to jack the numbers up.
Click to expand...
I think it is harder to manipulate the sea levels, as the gauge systems are still in place.
The funny thing with satellites, is the the 30 + mm of accuracy, means they would only see a minimum unit change
once every 8 to 10 years.
 
longview said:
I think it is harder to manipulate the sea levels, as the gauge systems are still in place.
The funny thing with satellites, is the the 30 + mm of accuracy, means they would only see a minimum unit change
once every 8 to 10 years.
Click to expand...

I wonder if the various keepers of tide gauge data are under any pressure to "Goose" their data.
 
longview said:
If they are, it is not working, The sea level at New York's Battery has been falling for about 6 years.
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8518750
If they were goosing the data it would be there, all the catastrophic images talk about flooding New York!
Click to expand...

Thanks for the heads-up (-: Here's what I get from the PSMSL
Data and Station Information for NEW YORK (THE BATTERY)
http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/rlr.annual.data/12.rlrdata

YYYY DATA RATE MM/YR
2008 7122 -3.5
2009 7149 -8.8
2010 7185 -14.4
2011 7182 -15
2012 7156 -10.9
2013 7124 -5.5
2014 7144 -31
2015 7113
 
longview said:
It woiuld have to fall for over a decade to mean anything, but it is falling quickly.
Click to expand...

The permanent Service for Mean Sea Level has it updated through 2015 so we will see what 2016 has to bring.
 
Given that the 20th century saw the drying up of the Arel sea, the desertification of the surrounding lands, the destruction of large areas of forrest in Norther China, the dust bowl in North America, the huge drop in water tables across North Africa due to the water being pumped out for agriculture, the similar desertification of Southern Pakistan and lots of similar events why would we not expect to see a sea level rise during that period.

Now most of those have run their course and might be slowly reversing in some cases, well maybe, that input into the oceans has ended.

We could easily see sea level drops from now on as more and more ice is locked away at the poles.
 
Steve Case said:
The London Conference on Climate Change 2016 Thomas Wysmuller (Sea Level)

A good run down on sea level claims that show up in the popular press. We've all seen them,
so many feet of sea level rise by 2050 and 2100 with maps and diagrams of what the world will
look like by then. Anybody with a hand held calculator or pencil and paper can do the arithmetic
to demonstrate that such claims are require rates of sea level rise ten times what they are today.

The question needs to be asked as to when the run-up to such high rates will begin to happen?



18 minutes
Click to expand...


Good question.
 
Jack Hays said:
Good question.
Click to expand...

Yes indeed, another good question that comes to mind is triggered by another ridiculous
claim that CH4 is 20 to over 86 times more powerful than CO2 as a greenhouse gas.

The question to ask is, "So how much will CH4 run up the temperature if you double
the amount in the atmosphere?" And, "How long will that take?"

Or another when we're told that when the glaciers disappear that the rivers in the
valleys will run dry, we need to ask, "So it will still rain and snow there won't it?
So where will the rain and melt water go if not in the river?"

Or, since you tell us that Greenland is losing ice, how come the summit isn't losing
altitude?

Or how come we haven't had any strong hurricanes make land fall in the
United States in over a decade?

Or more to the point, when are you people going to stop pulling our legs?"
 
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