I knew the surge would accomplish exactly what it did. I was 100% correct on my prediction
seems i remember something about how more targets weren't going to fix a civil war..... ?
Now lasting peace and a stable Iraq? Not gonna happen.
based on what?
My prediction. There will be a major power play. The real threats that have been patient, quiet and waiting for us to leave will make their move. The ones smart enough to know that they can not win over the US military.
ah. the 'real threats' that havent' been involved. who are they?
When chaos does breaks out again should we go back in with another surge?
if it happens, then yes. the consequences are simply too dire to do otherwise.
Nevertheless, they certainly want to convince the American people that their nation has won a war in Iraq. If you walk down the street of your home town and ask people what winning in Iraq means here is some of the things you might hear:
1. We successfully got rid of Saddam Hussein and his dictatorship
2. We defeated the regular Iraqi army that was fielded against our forces
3. We have successfully brought democracy to Iraq
4. We prevented Saddam Hussein from developing and using weapons of mass destruction
5. We destroyed Al Qaeda's ability to use Iraq as a stage for terrorist attacks against the U.S.
Numbers 1 and 2 are true and constitute the classical definitions of "winning" a war. If anyone had pushed John McCain to define his terms he may well have fallen back on these traditional criteria for success. Number 3 is highly questionable. After our invasion, we configured elections for Iraq which were then held in the midst of a civil war. It is now apparent that the Iraqi people are so divided, both ethnically and in terms of religious sects, that the electoral process has only led to stalemate.
The most recent elections (March 2010) have not produced a conclusive winner and the various Iraqi parties have not been able to negotiate a stable coalition government.
war is not strictly defined by large battle formations crashing into each other. arguably, that isn't even the historic norm for warfare. certainly it isn't the only kind of war that the US fights or has fought or should fight.
but look at your goalposts. the iraq war is a failure because their
democracy is in a stalemate? goodness, what did you consider the US when our government shut down in 1995?
democracy (messy, corrupt, and problematic) is now the general assumption in that state. as for the mythical infamous religious and ethnic divisions; claims of their eruption are wildly overrated or exagerated. it's worth noting that both Qods and AQI have attempted (with success mostly limited to Baghdad) to
spawn ethnic/religous divison. it's worth noting that because
one doesn't have to foment what exists naturally; and the Iraqi people largely seem to have told both belligerents to get stuffed. much of the Iraqi populace is actually mixed; families have shia and sunni branches. shia fought willingly and well against Iran in the Iraq-Iran war, and seem to have generally rejected Sadrist calls for Iranian subservience / twelver theocracy.
The resulting political vacuum has once more opened the door to civil war
this would be the oft-predicted never seen Iraqi civil war? and how exactly does a hung parliament produce a conflict that the bombing of the golden mosque and ethnic cleanisng campaigns did not?
and terrorist attacks on civilian targets are on the increase
:shrug: which we knew was going to happen; what is left of the vestiges of AQI are desperate to try to delegitimize an Iraqi government clearly acting independently; and Iranian backed extremists (though similarly marginalized), are equally desperate to do the same. but a series of car bombings in Baghdad doesn't mean the government will dissolve overnight anymore than the 9/11 and anthrax attacks convinced Americans to turn back to the British Crown.
Numbers 4 and 5 are false and always have been. They are two major variants on the lies fed to the American Congress and people by the administration of George W. Bush.
handled above. the fact is that in todays world; realism simply is no longer realistic.
especially given that we are no longer the only universalistic creed-based nation around.