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The Great Bear is coming out of it's 87 year hibernation

Buck Naked

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WARNING! The Dow Jones Industrial Average, as well as all other major stock markets, are nearing their peak and the Great Bear is about to come out of it's 87 year hibernation.

I don't forecast this with any pleasure as major bear markets affect retail investors the most and that equates to 401(k) and 457 plan holders being dramatically affected over the next 15-20 years.

I don't use news or politics to forecast this dump, as price charts are not formed and plotted on either. Instead, I use the only long term viable forecasting method labeled as Elliot Wave Principles, a method even the most experienced traders/investors have difficulty understanding and using correctly.

I'm not advising you on what to do with your portfolios, but I am asking you, how much are you willing to lose before you realize this upcoming major bear market is like no other in your lifetimes.

What I'm forecasting in general.

After the All Time High completes, the DJI won't make a new high for AT LEAST 10 years.
The DJI will nosedive AT LEAST 38%(to $17000) by the first half of the year 2020.
A Bull Trap will form after the nosedive completes.
The DJI final low will be somewhere between $13000- $5000.

Be prepared, protect your investments, and don't fall into the trap of denial. The DJI, from a market psychology point of view, is now in it's delusional phase. The DJI is nearly completing its the long term Cycle Third Wave. The long term Cycle Fourth wave(which is down) will be the greatest in our lifetimes, like no other experienced.

Please learn to protect investments and retirement accounts.

DJI UPCOMING 4TH WAVE.jpg

I will post when I believe the DJI hits it's peak, which I currently forecast in the range of $27400-$29000. Each stock is different and I have already sold some, but I will sell all my stocks when the DJI hits $27400 as the downside far outweighs the upside.
 
I don't know why the image is so poor.
 
wow

so 1/4 to 1/2 of current values

so you think PE's are going to 6 or 7 multiples for growth stocks?

and to 4-5 PE's for value stocks?

is that your prediction?

will you sell the market short? certain stocks?

how will you play this incredible BEAR market (depression cycle)?

inquiring minds want to know....
 
Recessions are a natural part of the business cycle. You can't have 100% up days.

The question is, that when the next recession hits, how bad will it be? My guess is that it will be so slight that 80% of people won't notice it.
 
I want a bear market. P/E's are out of whack.
 
so 1/4 to 1/2 of current values
By the first half of the year 2020, yes


so you think PE's are going to 6 or 7 multiples for growth stocks?

and to 4-5 PE's for value stocks?

is that your prediction?
I’m not forecasting private equity as it’s a market with too few people to forecast with any reasonable certainty. However, when this upcoming downturn arrives, Institutional investors/private equities are going to need to raise money somewhere and that’s going to be in a public market because that’s going to be the only thing they can sell, hence putting more pressure to the downside of publicly traded markets. But it’s too early to forecast these scenarios.


will you sell the market short? certain stocks?
I will watch how far the ‘A’ wave correction drops, then consider shorting after the ‘B’ wave completes and the 'C' wave is in its infancy, but basically, I will stay out of publicly traded markets and watch it play out over the next year at least. I usually don't short stocks as it's very risky.


how will you play this incredible BEAR market (depression cycle)?

inquiring minds want to know....
Physical gold, which takes a little bit of time to organize. And crypto, primarily BTC(25%), probably as soon as I sell, but watched and traded carefully. None of this is written in stone.
 
[FONT=&]By the first half of the year 2020, yes[/FONT]


[FONT=&]I’m not forecasting private equity as it’s a market with too few people to forecast with any reasonable certainty. However, when this upcoming downturn arrives, Institutional investors/private equities are going to need to raise money somewhere and that’s going to be in a public market because that’s going to be the only thing they can sell, hence putting more pressure to the downside of publicly traded markets. But it’s too early to forecast these scenarios.[/FONT]


[FONT=&]I will watch how far the ‘A’ wave correction drops, then consider shorting after the ‘B’ wave completes and the 'C' wave is in its infancy, but basically, I will stay out of publicly traded markets and watch it play out over the next year at least. I usually don't short stocks as it's very risky.[/FONT]



[FONT=&]Physical gold, which takes a little bit of time to organize. And crypto, primarily BTC(25%), probably as soon as I sell, but watched and traded carefully. None of this is written in stone.[/FONT]

Why should I value your predictions?
 
Recessions are a natural part of the business cycle. You can't have 100% up days.

I agree, that's a truism.

The question is, that when the next recession hits, how bad will it be? My guess is that it will be so slight that 80% of people won't notice it.

Well, I'm highlighting the DJI specifically, not so much as a recession in general. But, this downturn of the DJI is very near to entering its fourth wave correction of the long term cycle which in comparison, will be like the second wave correction from 1929-1933. It will be much deeper and longer than the 2008 correction as the 2008 correction was the fourth wave of Primary cycle which is one degree less than the Long term Cycle.
 
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Why should I value your predictions?

You shouldn't. I suggest you challenge my Elliot Wave count and demonstrate if you think I got it wrong.
 
I want a bear market. P/E's are out of whack.

I believe the chart says you're going to get one. However, this bear market is going to hurt people whom don't protect themselves, so it's difficult for me to pleased about it even with all the opportunity it will bring.
 
Linear DJI complete.jpg

This is the near complete history of the DJI in Linear scale.

From a strictly visual view, doesn't that look like it's gone too far too fast over the last decade?
Does anyone think the move from 2009 is sustainable?

To me, it looks eerily similar to the crypto bubbles.
 
I believe the chart says you're going to get one. However, this bear market is going to hurt people whom don't protect themselves, so it's difficult for me to pleased about it even with all the opportunity it will bring.

You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him take a bubble bath. Every day there are winners and losers in the stockmarket.
 
WARNING! The Dow Jones Industrial Average, as well as all other major stock markets, are nearing their peak and the Great Bear is about to come out of it's 87 year hibernation.

I don't forecast this with any pleasure as major bear markets affect retail investors the most and that equates to 401(k) and 457 plan holders being dramatically affected over the next 15-20 years.

I don't use news or politics to forecast this dump, as price charts are not formed and plotted on either. Instead, I use the only long term viable forecasting method labeled as Elliot Wave Principles, a method even the most experienced traders/investors have difficulty understanding and using correctly.

I'm not advising you on what to do with your portfolios, but I am asking you, how much are you willing to lose before you realize this upcoming major bear market is like no other in your lifetimes.

What I'm forecasting in general.

After the All Time High completes, the DJI won't make a new high for AT LEAST 10 years.
The DJI will nosedive AT LEAST 38%(to $17000) by the first half of the year 2020.
A Bull Trap will form after the nosedive completes.
The DJI final low will be somewhere between $13000- $5000.

Be prepared, protect your investments, and don't fall into the trap of denial. The DJI, from a market psychology point of view, is now in it's delusional phase. The DJI is nearly completing its the long term Cycle Third Wave. The long term Cycle Fourth wave(which is down) will be the greatest in our lifetimes, like no other experienced.

Please learn to protect investments and retirement accounts.

View attachment 67266417

I will post when I believe the DJI hits it's peak, which I currently forecast in the range of $27400-$29000. Each stock is different and I have already sold some, but I will sell all my stocks when the DJI hits $27400 as the downside far outweighs the upside.

How about a link to where you get this chart and info?
 
[FONT=&]By the first half of the year 2020, yes[/FONT]


[FONT=&]I’m not forecasting private equity as it’s a market with too few people to forecast with any reasonable certainty. However, when this upcoming downturn arrives, Institutional investors/private equities are going to need to raise money somewhere and that’s going to be in a public market because that’s going to be the only thing they can sell, hence putting more pressure to the downside of publicly traded markets. But it’s too early to forecast these scenarios.[/FONT]


[FONT=&]I will watch how far the ‘A’ wave correction drops, then consider shorting after the ‘B’ wave completes and the 'C' wave is in its infancy, but basically, I will stay out of publicly traded markets and watch it play out over the next year at least. I usually don't short stocks as it's very risky.[/FONT]



[FONT=&]Physical gold, which takes a little bit of time to organize. And crypto, primarily BTC(25%), probably as soon as I sell, but watched and traded carefully. None of this is written in stone.[/FONT]

so let me get this straight

you are "forecasting" a market drop down to perhaps 5000 on the djia

I will watch how far the ‘A’ wave correction drops, then consider shorting after the ‘B’ wave completes and the 'C' wave is in its infancy, but basically, I will stay out of publicly traded markets and watch it play out over the next year at least. I usually don't short stocks as it's very risky.
so you may not even be risking your money on the market after calling this major DROP?

but you are putting your money into physical gold (bars, coins?) and crypocurrency (bitcoin)

:shock: :lamo

okey dokey then.....thanks, but i will keep buying stocks, and reinvesting dividends

and yes, i do expect a correction....maybe even down to 22000 or so in the next two years as the market is frothy

and i will buy the blue light specials as they fall....

PG will still be selling toothpaste, toilet paper, and such
Pepsi will still be selling water, chips, and drinks
Sysco will still be selling food products all over the US
CSX will still have trains running, and delivering products

and so on, and so on.....

yeah, if you own stocks selling at 80-100x earnings....might be time to take a hard look

the blue chips might dip....but they arent going to 1/4 of where they are now
 
so let me get this straight

you are "forecasting" a market drop down to perhaps 5000 on the djia

I will watch how far the ‘A’ wave correction drops, then consider shorting after the ‘B’ wave completes and the 'C' wave is in its infancy, but basically, I will stay out of publicly traded markets and watch it play out over the next year at least. I usually don't short stocks as it's very risky.
so you may not even be risking your money on the market after calling this major DROP?

but you are putting your money into physical gold (bars, coins?) and crypocurrency (bitcoin)

:shock: :lamo

okey dokey then.....thanks, but i will keep buying stocks, and reinvesting dividends

and yes, i do expect a correction....maybe even down to 22000 or so in the next two years as the market is frothy

and i will buy the blue light specials as they fall....

PG will still be selling toothpaste, toilet paper, and such
Pepsi will still be selling water, chips, and drinks
Sysco will still be selling food products all over the US
CSX will still have trains running, and delivering products

and so on, and so on.....

yeah, if you own stocks selling at 80-100x earnings....might be time to take a hard look

the blue chips might dip....but they arent going to 1/4 of where they are now

Like I said earlier, the market psychology is in it's delusional phase. Are you willing to wager anything or shall we just wait for 8 months to see who made the better decision?
 
With China and India (alone) developing I don’t understand the mentality of a long term bear market.
 
so let me get this straightyou are "forecasting" a market drop down to perhaps 5000 on the djia
Just to be clear, I don’t know if it will drop to 5000 and is low in terms of probability. Since it’s so early, I’ve only stated a final low in a possible range of 13000-5000. How did I come up with that range? Well, the primary guideline in EW is that corrections, especially when they themselves are FOURTH WAVES, tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lessor degree, most commonly near the level of it’s terminus. Now, if you looked at my posted chart, the previous fourth wave of one lessor degree(in green) is from 14000-6400. So, its terminus is $6400, where it most commonly may reach it’s final low. However, commonly or not, it is a guideline, the EW rule is it just needs to surpass the terminus of wave three which is 14000. Hence, my range of 13000-5000. If you want me to be more precise, the range is 14000-6400. But, it’s far too early to be precise where the low will be at this point in time. That’s why I’m only stating a range. However, if you need a more definitive forecast, I will state that the correction, once begun, will reach a bare minimum of 14000.
I will watch how far the ‘A’ wave correction drops, then consider shorting after the ‘B’ wave completes and the 'C' wave is in its infancy, but basically, I will stay out of publicly traded markets and watch it play out over the next year at least. I usually don't short stocks as it's very risky.so you may not even be risking your money on the market after calling this major DROP?
I’m sure if you ask any experienced trader, shorting is extremely risky. Just knowing/believing a correction will play out is not enough to successfully trade a short. Timing is key, which is extremely difficult to forecast, especially in the short term(3months to a year), therefore leaving one exposed to interest eating up your short or your account being drained over a period of sideways movement or short term spike up. Furthermore, with the advancement of Bots over the past few decades, shorts as well as margin longs get stomped out regularly. I’ve learned to stay away from futures and margin trading, there’s plenty of money to be made playing the conservative, long term
but you are putting your money into physical gold (bars, coins?) and crypocurrency (bitcoin)
Yes, gold is stable. I chose gold because it’s a safe haven and its long term trend appears to be up. I choose a safe haven because I’m unsure of what the future of the financial world will bring. Cryptos are dramatically threatening to disrupt the financial world. No, it won’t happen overnight, but it is a major threat over time. Getting in early is the name of the game.
 okey dokey then.....thanks, but i will keep buying stocks, and reinvesting dividends
Laugh all you like, but like me, you don’t know what the future will bring. The charts tell me the stock market is going down soon, the charts tell me gold is going up long term, the crypto world is here to disrupt, the DJI, etc just had its largest expansion in history and has not had a major correction since 1932, fiat currencies have been QEing themselves to death, the dollar is the longest surviving fiat currency in history where no other fiat currency has survived more than thirty years. Uncertainty is gaining steam throughout the world.I am choosing a safe haven, gold. I am willing to trade risky crypto with close stops. This is my game plan at the moment, knowing it may well change with new information.I’m not telling you or laughing at what you do with your investments, buying stocks and reinvesting dividends may work out for you, I just think it’s risky for the simple reasons I stated before or until a clear direction is chosen.
and yes, i do expect a correction....maybe even down to 22000 or so in the next two years as the market is frothy
How did you choose 22000? Do you think that’s where major support is sitting?
and i will buy the blue light specials as they fall....
What’s your plan if they keep continuing to fall? What happens if you’re just buying into shorts?
PG will still be selling toothpaste, toilet paper, and suchPepsi will still be selling water, chips, and drinksSysco will still be selling food products all over the USCSX will still have trains running, and delivering productsand so on, and so on.....
Just because they “will still be selling” those products, doesn’t equate to their and your investments continuing to profit over the next 5-10 years. Downturns occur for everything at periods of time and companies continue to sell during those periods.
 
....but they arent going to 1/4 of where they are now

Like I asked earlier, are you willing to put a wager on it. We can do it in a form of donation to debatepolitics.
 
View attachment 67266431

This is the near complete history of the DJI in Linear scale.

From a strictly visual view, doesn't that look like it's gone too far too fast over the last decade?
Does anyone think the move from 2009 is sustainable?

To me, it looks eerily similar to the crypto bubbles.

What you aren't considering is that productivity exploded when the US decoupled from a commodity standard. This released massive amounts of global productivity of which the US dollar is the greatest portion of. If you're looking at the DJI historically and think that it's bound to fail because of its recent rise, you aren't factoring in why it's risen so much.

Crypto, on the other hand, is a PURELY speculative investment, with zero intrinsic value and very little extrinsic value relative to its perceived value. It makes a terrible currency first because it's so volatile, but second because people are more likely to save then they are to spend it. GDP is measured in spending and demand is a function of GDP. I think virtual currencies might have a niche, but they are not a replacement in any way shape or form for national currencies for more reasons than I care to enumerate.
 
What you aren't considering is that productivity exploded when the US decoupled from a commodity standard. This released massive amounts of global productivity of which the US dollar is the greatest portion of. If you're looking at the DJI historically and think that it's bound to fail because of its recent rise, you aren't factoring in why it's risen so much.

You’re correct, I’m not considering why it exploded or try to find reasons why it exploded. I may have confused you( and perhaps, others) with an earlier post listing reasons why I’m unsure of the financial world and how crypto may dramatically disrupt it, but when it comes to trading, I ignore or disregard any reasons I may have. I only base my decision on the chart, using Elliott wave principles as my guide.

You may have heard of the expression, ”Show me a chart, and I’ll tell you the news”. Well, that is how I trade. No news items or series of developments can be regarded as the underlying cause of any sustained trend. In fact, over a long period of time the same events have had widely different effects because trend conditions were dissimilar. You can verify this just by casual study of the DJI over the past 100 years. During that period, Kings and Presidents have been assassinated, we have had two world wars, we had booms, busts, panics, bankruptcies, New Era, New Deal, and all sorts of historic and emotional developments. Yet all bull and bear markets evinced similar characteristics that controlled and measured the response of the market to any type of news or developments as well as the extent and proportions of the component segments of the trend as a whole. It is easy to label the progression of Elliott waves on a historical price chart, but it is impossible to pick out the occurrences of war on the basis of recorded stock market action. Try and verify it for yourself if you don’t believe me.

I’m attempting to explain, that it is not news or a series of developments that forms patterns in the markets, but cycles in psychology or Nature’s Law, and Elliott wave does the best at answering those questions, particularly as the period of time gets longer and the larger the market. I have been counting waves for decades now, disregarding any developments that may have occurred or might have occurred. Like Fibonacci identified the Sequence, I trade on cycles, ignoring all news or human created developments as noise.
 
Crypto, on the other hand, is a PURELY speculative investment, with zero intrinsic value and very little extrinsic value relative to its perceived value. It makes a terrible currency first because it's so volatile, but second because people are more likely to save then they are to spend it. GDP is measured in spending and demand is a function of GDP. I think virtual currencies might have a niche, but they are not a replacement in any way shape or form for national currencies for more reasons than I care to enumerate.

It was a speculative market in it’s first several years, but now there has been more accumulative investment made in building upon the protocol and applications than speculative traders investing in the price(which currently stands around 250 billion). The accumulative investment into companies and development of crypto and protocols has surpassed a trillion dollars worldwide(which may well have passed a trillion since I stopped keeping track of it over a year and a half ago). If it was just speculative, bitcoin should has passed $100000 by now. Ask yourself why people and companies have invested more into development, companies and applications than the total market capitalization at its all time peak(750 billion)? Are they just burning capital for no reason?

“Intrinsic value”? I may go down this rabbit hole in the future, but it’s a deep one and one that will take much time for me to help you understand, but in general, the intrinsic value question is misconstrued, full of hyperbole and not an important measure.
But, I’ll start with some questions to provoke thought, what intrinsic value do fiat currencies have? And what do think is the intrinsic value of gold in terms of price? And most important, what price do you put on the ability to trust?

On the subject of Crypto as a currency; This is another subject that takes time for me explain and if you’re interested, I will, but it will take much effort on your part. But here are a couple of quick, unelaborated fundamentals to get your thoughts moving. First, BTC is most importantly, a protocol. One of it’s applications is as a currency, like email is an application to the internet, whereas, BTC, the currency is an application of BTC, the protocol. Confusing isn't it. This is fundamental in understanding BTC. The possibilities of new tech evolving from BTC is infinite. Second, BTC, the protocol is trust in mathematics, completely removing the human characteristic of lying.

You’ll have to excuse me as I can write about crypto for months on end, so I’ll leave it there.

And yes, it doesn’t make for a good currency for most nations, especially for the West. At least for now and probably into the foreseeable future. But that doesn’t equate that it won’t be in the future. The Volatility trend has been getting lower since it conception. However, interpreting BTC as just a currency is just not understanding what BTC(protocol) is and has the potential to be, even well beyond the financial space.

In it’s simplest form, BTC is Trust digitalized, now imagine all the applications and improvements to current systems that can evolve and be developed out of that tech.

People like to diminish crypto, but I think it's their misunderstanding of it that makes them tend towards that direction.
 
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Chart Ending Diagonal.jpg

STRATEGY - My strategy is to continue to count the subwaves of ‘ending diagonal’ wave 5 and attempt to sell as high as possible within the High Probability Sell Target/Reversal Range Area.

High Probability Sell Target/Reversal Range Area = $27398.7-$28127 (I shall sell in this range)(I will attempt to pick the top price reversal)
Active StopSell Order = $26700. (In case Sell Target/Reversal Range Area is not reached)(This price may change as more candles are pasted revealing more info)
StopBuy Order = Pending until sell order is executed. (Placed after sell order is executed in case my forecast is incorrect)
Currently = I am counting the Minuette degree(in red) waves as they unfold while waiting and forecasting for the NEAR completion of Minuette degree(in red) wave 5 to sell.
See CHART ‘DJI Minuette waves’
 
Update

Getting closer to a high probability top in the DJI.

CHART ‘DJI Minuette waves’.jpg

STRATEGY -I am continuing to count the subwaves of ‘ending diagonal’ wave 5 and subminuette waves(in yellow) and micro degree waves(not labeled) with an attempt to sell as high as possible within the High Probability Sell Target/Reversal Range Area.

High Probability Sell Target/Reversal Range Area = $27398.7-$28127 (I shall sell in this range)(I will attempt to pick the top price reversal)

Revised Active StopSell Order = $26900. (In case Sell order is not executed)(This price may change as more candles are pasted revealing more info)

StopBuy Order = Pending until sell order is executed. (Placed after sell order is executed in case my forecast is incorrect)

Currently = I am counting the micro degree waves(not labeled) as I interpret this is the final wave 5 of Minuette degree(in red) and possible final wave 5 of Subminuette degree(in yellow). See CHART ‘DJI Minuette waves’. I have shown possible targets. The final set of five micro degree waves may have just barely begun, but too early to tell.
 
Update

The DJI Peak/Reversal has a very high probability of taking place this week.

CHART2 ‘DJI Minuette waves’.jpg CHART2 closeup view.jpg

High Probability Sell Target/Reversal Range Area = $27398.7-$28127 (I shall sell in this range)(I will attempt to pick the top price reversal)

REVISED Active StopSell Order = $27400. (In case Sell order is not executed)(This price may change as more candles are pasted revealing more info)

StopBuy Order = Pending until sell order is executed. (Placed after sell order is executed in case my forecast is incorrect)

Currently = See CHART2 ‘DJI Minuette waves’. Subminuette degree waves are very difficult to count with accuracy. The Top might be in at $27560.4, however, there could be another set of five waves in the subminuette degree(in yellow) that may carry price higher. There are other scenarios/models which I won’t describe, but basically, the minimum price I would get is $27400 if the StopSell is triggered, with a possibility of selling higher if it moves higher without triggering the StopSell.


Note: For the ignorant, one can’t trade the DJI directly. One can’t short or long the DJI directly. My forecast is for general stock market sentiment through demonstration of how to trade the DJI if it were possible.
 
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