The Great Bear is coming out of it's 87 year hibernation

[Buck Naked]

The DJI final low will be somewhere between $13000- $5000.

This is Phase Three: After phase two completes, the markets will fall relentlessly, devastating in their destruction in terms of price. Fundamentals will ultimately collapse in response. As the denial and disillusionment of phase one, two and of market structural warnings disappears, anxiety, dismay, distress and fear take over. There is no place to hide except in gold, likely silver, likely cash, likely a very few cryptocurrencies(95%+ will collapse to zero), likely treasuries, as well as a few possible other investment vehicles.


My thoughts: Phase two likely will not complete during Trump’s first term and continue on during the first year of the next presidential term. If Trump wins a second term, he’ll be eventually impeached and removed or resign for whatever reason after midterm elections as phase three will devastate market price, unemployment will skyrocket past 10%, retirement accounts will have halved and his base will have lost faith in him and begin to blame him. If Biden or Sanders wins, they’ll be a one term President as “it’s the economy, stupid” for which they can do nothing, as no President can do anything meaningful(but I have little belief this will put that myth to bed).


This phase in EWP terms will be Wave ‘C’


The stock markets will eventually find its low point somewhere between the Fibonacci levels of 0.618($11400 DJI) and 0.88($3560 DJI) as measured from the July 1st, 1932 low on the DJI chart to the ATH on February 3rd, 2020. I personally don’t think it will find it’s bottom near the .618(Golden ratio) level simply because it won’t have “the right look” as Mr Elliott describes and Lionardo di ser Piero da Vinci has postulated. It will look too short, uncompleted, unfinished, partial at the .618 level. Between the .78 and .88 Fibonacci levels seem more likely as the bottom, final low.


A Death Cross(a lagging indicator) in terms of technical analysis on the weekly chart will occur in the first quarter of this phase. If one isn’t completely out of the market by this time, this will be their last area of chance to get out as the markets will collapse from this point further another 50%, at minimum, until it finds the bottom wherever that may be.


This will not be the apocalypse, but it will hurt too many people.


I have known for over thirty years that this wave would likely happen in my lifetime, but I have never felt from my inner being such a desire, wish, longing and hope to be wrong as I do now.


But making investment decisions based on hope is for the fool…

 

[Buck Naked]

Fed just announced about 10 minutes ago it is flooding the market with cash

Won't stop it... This is on whole other level than the Fed

 

[Buck Naked]

No time to explain,

Sold all crypto.
ETHUSD at $124
BTCUSD at $5350


On Friday, March 13th, during after hours,

I bought 5 contracts of DIA MARCH 20, 2020 175 LONG PUT AT $0.50
I bought 5 contracts of DIA MARCH 20, 2020 165 LONG PUT AT $0.28
I bought 5 contracts of SPY MARCH 18, 2020 200 LONG PUT AT $0.20
Probably won’t have time to post when/if I close the options, but will definitely close DIA if hits $170 and SPY if hits $200.

 

[Buck Naked]

Short term forecast : Wave ‘A’ of the Cycle degree.

The DJI has completed roughly half the move down for wave ‘A’

Impulse, corrective Wave 3 of Cycle degree Wave ‘A’ is targeting the range of $16500 - $15500 on DJI. I expect it reach this area then make a wave 4 of Wave ‘A’ huge bounce up to between a range of $20300 - $21400.

After Wave 4 of Wave ‘A’ completes, Wave 5 of Wave ‘A’ will target somewhere below the low of wave 3 of Wave ‘A’ unless Wave 3 of Wave ‘A’ extends past $15000 for which Wave 5 of Wave ‘A’ may be truncated and bottom just short of the Wave 3 of Wave ‘A’ low. But more on this later as it’s too early to forecast wave 5.

Note: I’ve abandoned time and will only focus only on targets due to the incredible speed for which the fall is moving.



I can't seem to post a chart as there seems to be a bug posting my image. Therefore, I wrote it out.

 

[Grand Mal]

Recessions are a natural part of the business cycle. You can't have 100% up days.

The question is, that when the next recession hits, how bad will it be? My guess is that it will be so slight that 80% of people won't notice it.

Depends. If It's US, China and Europe all at the same time it'll be noticed but otherwise money will move around into the warm and cosy places like always. Increasingly recession in the US signals a decrease in consumption, not production, which is concerning but less so as prosperous middle classes grow elsewhere.

 

[2BInTO]

I'm sorry Buck this is a ridiculous thread but somewhat entertaining. Are you trying to raise a fund?

 

[charliebrown]

Short term forecast : Wave ‘A’ of the Cycle degree.

The DJI has completed roughly half the move down for wave ‘A’

Impulse, corrective Wave 3 of Cycle degree Wave ‘A’ is targeting the range of $16500 - $15500 on DJI. I expect it reach this area then make a wave 4 of Wave ‘A’ huge bounce up to between a range of $20300 - $21400.

After Wave 4 of Wave ‘A’ completes, Wave 5 of Wave ‘A’ will target somewhere below the low of wave 3 of Wave ‘A’ unless Wave 3 of Wave ‘A’ extends past $15000 for which Wave 5 of Wave ‘A’ may be truncated and bottom just short of the Wave 3 of Wave ‘A’ low. But more on this later as it’s too early to forecast wave 5.

Note: I’ve abandoned time and will only focus only on targets due to the incredible speed for which the fall is moving.



I can't seem to post a chart as there seems to be a bug posting my image. Therefore, I wrote it out.

Hello, what happened? I just found this thread and was interested in going thru its history.
Why did you stop.

PS, I agree with you that a wise investor is a diversified investor. Stocks, bonds, cash, commodities, crypto currencies and real estate.

 

[Buck Naked]

I’ve missed posting trades of crypto so I’ve decided to now only post long term trades and their respective targets where I may consider selling or taking profit.

Trading Account Portfolio (Metals and Crypto only)

Gold 35%
-Remains the same and untouched. Physical gold should always remain a long term trade due to the premiums one has to pay.
- Target to consider selling or taking profit. = $3800
- Time = Target based, but could take anywhere between 2 - 10 years.

Ethereum 35%
- Todays price is $177.50 so I’ll start here.
- Target to consider selling or taking profit. = $2000
- Time = Target based, but could take anywhere between 6months - 2 years.

Bitcoin 35%
- Todays price is $7075 so I’ll start here.
- Target to consider selling or taking profit. = $90000
- Time = Target based, but could take anywhere between 6months - 2 years.

 

[bongsaway]

The thing about the stock market and most ordinary people, they have no idea of when to sell. People put money into their 401 and that's it, that's what most know about their stocks. They either earn money or lose it.

Stock traders on the other hand have a sell point in mind. If they buy at thirty a share they might put a thirty three dollar target on the stock and then sell it if it hits thirty three regardless of what the chart is showing.

My suggestion, have a sell point when you buy in.

 

[Buck Naked]

I'm sorry Buck this is a ridiculous thread but somewhat entertaining. Are you trying to raise a fund?

How do you expect me to respond to this post of yours?

You make an insult without a shred of insightful criticism, then you make, what I can only perceive to be a joke since it cannot be a serious question.

Would you like to try again? Perhaps with some insight or constructive criticism?

 

[Buck Naked]

Hello, what happened? I just found this thread and was interested in going thru its history.
Why did you stop.

I haven’t stopped, just busy and tend to forget about this thread. The main point of this thread is about market behavior and how the DJI can be used to monitor it. I’ve made three forecasts using the DJI and it will take time for them to play out, so it’s not necessary I post often until price targets or time targets are reached.

PS, I agree with you that a wise investor is a diversified investor. Stocks, bonds, cash, commodities, crypto currencies and real estate.

I've always practiced that, but I don't believe stocks to be one of the choices for a couple of years at least.

 

[Buck Naked]

The thing about the stock market and most ordinary people, they have no idea of when to sell. People put money into their 401 and that's it, that's what most know about their stocks. They either earn money or lose it.

That's correct, but I would say most that don't touch it for the long run(15 years plus), earn money. But, this time(next couple of years at least) will not be a good time to hold.

Stock traders on the other hand have a sell point in mind. If they buy at thirty a share they might put a thirty three dollar target on the stock and then sell it if it hits thirty three regardless of what the chart is showing.

My suggestion, have a sell point when you buy in.

I agree in general.

 

[charliebrown]

I haven’t stopped, just busy and tend to forget about this thread. The main point of this thread is about market behavior and how the DJI can be used to monitor it. I’ve made three forecasts using the DJI and it will take time for them to play out, so it’s not necessary I post often until price targets or time targets are reached.



I've always practiced that, but I don't believe stocks to be one of the choices for a couple of years at least.

The masses need their entertainment and food delivered to the front door. Some stocks do well even in a bear market. This latest crisis will weed out a bunch of small business and make the mega market corporations stronger.

 

[Buck Naked]

The masses need their entertainment and food delivered to the front door. Some stocks do well even in a bear market. This latest crisis will weed out a bunch of small business and make the mega market corporations stronger.

Some stocks will do well is correct, but the stats are that 90% of stocks move down with the market and 75% move up with the market. I’m not willing to play pick’em with 10 %, but that doesn’t mean one can’t profit, just that I find it very risky. For me the stock market is a no go zone for a couple of years.

This latest crisis will weed out a bunch of small business and make the mega market corporations stronger.

This is just the beginning of the crisis. As I said in the OP and other posts, it's going to get a whole lot worse over the next couple of years, like 1929-1933.

 

[Buck Naked]

Just for the record,

Sold all Ethereum(ETHUSD) at $200

Sold all Bitcoin(BTCUSD) at $9600

 

[Buck Naked]

Here is a summary and result of my Phase One forecast.

Original Forecast part 1 from the OP posted on 10-17-19 ,

“The DJI will nosedive AT LEAST 38%(to $17000) by the first half of the year 2020. “

Updated and elaborated forecast of part 1 from the original forecast on 03-12-20,

“Phase One. The stock markets will fall byJuly 1st, 2020(probably sooner rather than later) to somewhere between the Fibonacci levels of 0.382($18400 DJI) and 0.618($11400 DJI) as measured from the July 1st, 1932 low on the DJI chart to the ATH on February 3rd, 2020.”

“A Death Cross(a lagging indicator) in terms of technical analysis on the daily chart will occur near the end of this phase, although it will be recognized too late or towards it’s price low of the move in this phase.”

As one can see within the chart, my forecast hit the minimum Fibonacci target level 0.382 with a price of $18213 by July 1st, 2020.

And, almost precisely, price reversed when the daily Death Cross occurred.

 

[Buck Naked]

Chart for post above,


Sorry for the image quality, but I can't seem to make it clearer. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

 

[Buck Naked]

Here is an updated summary of my Phase Two Forecast. This phase is still ongoing or unconfirmed.

Original Forecast part 2 from the OP posted on 10-17-19 ,

“A Bull Trap will form after the nosedive completes."

Updated and elaborated Forecast of part 1 from the original forecast on 03-12-20,

“Phase Two: After the phase one market fall completes this year, the markets will bounce(move up). The move up will retrace to somewhere between the Fibonacci levels of 0.382-0.618 as measured from the ATH on February 3rd, 2020 on the DJI chart to the low of where phase one completes.”

“Phase Two is what I’m choosing to label as the Bull Trap.”

“The upward move peak of this phase will test the weekly 100 day Moving Average area before reversing and entering the relentless price decline of phase 3.”

Price action moved higher than expected, breaking above the Fibonacci 0.618 level to the 0.78 Fib level.

Too early to confirm it as a Bull trap as price action must fall below the $18213 low to be confirmed as a Bull Trap. And still too early to confirm if it’s done moving up, but has been and is currently testing the 50 day Moving Average(which I mistakenly labeled as the 100 day MA).

Anyway, this phase seems to be moving much quicker in terms of time then expected, but the downside, now, far outweighs the upside and price action is nearing it’s peak(1 month more)or has already reached its peak(on June 8, 2020) and started Phase 3.

Please remember, Phase 3 will be disastrous and in the years to come will eventually reach somewhere between the Fibonacci levels of 0.618($11400 DJI) and 0.88($3560 DJI) as measured from the July 1st, 1932 low on the DJI chart to the ATH on February 3rd, 2020 .

This phase is the Bull Trap. Be aware, don’t get caught in denial. The peak of this phase is the last chance one has to get out while price action is high. Don’t fall for Steven Mnuchin or Larry Kudlow’s BS of a “V” shaped recovery. This will be a “M” shaped relentless fall in price action for a couple of years at least.

 

[vegas giants]

Here is an updated summary of my Phase Two Forecast. This phase is still ongoing or unconfirmed.

Original Forecast part 2 from the OP posted on 10-17-19 ,


Updated and elaborated Forecast of part 1 from the original forecast on 03-12-20,



Price action moved higher than expected, breaking above the Fibonacci 0.618 level to the 0.78 Fib level.

Too early to confirm it as a Bull trap as price action must fall below the $18213 low to be confirmed as a Bull Trap. And still too early to confirm if it’s done moving up, but has been and is currently testing the 50 day Moving Average(which I mistakenly labeled as the 100 day MA).

Anyway, this phase seems to be moving much quicker in terms of time then expected, but the downside, now, far outweighs the upside and price action is nearing it’s peak(1 month more)or has already reached its peak(on June 8, 2020) and started Phase 3.

Please remember, Phase 3 will be disastrous and in the years to come will eventually reach somewhere between the Fibonacci levels of 0.618($11400 DJI) and 0.88($3560 DJI) as measured from the July 1st, 1932 low on the DJI chart to the ATH on February 3rd, 2020 .

This phase is the Bull Trap. Be aware, don’t get caught in denial. The peak of this phase is the last chance one has to get out while price action is high. Don’t fall for Steven Mnuchin or Larry Kudlow’s BS of a “V” shaped recovery. This will be a “M” shaped relentless fall in price action for a couple of years at least.

I learned long ago to ignore anyone that claimed they could predict the market ten years in the future

 

[Buck Naked]

I learned long ago to ignore anyone that claimed they could predict the market ten years in the future

Well, I personally give no value to what you have flippantly stated about what you have anecdotally learned. Institutional investors disagree with you.


Long term trades are always easier to forecast with success than the short or intermediate terms, but good luck investing the short term.


I’ll see you in ten years, even though one of the three general forecasts has already occurred, the second forecast is unconfirmed and the third forecast won’t take more than 4 years.

But keep on anecdotally learning... it's such an efficient method...

 

[vegas giants]

[FONT=&]Well, I personally give no value to what you have flippantly stated about what you have anecdotally learned. Institutional investors disagree with you.[/FONT]
[FONT=&]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]Long term trades are always easier to forecast with success than the short or intermediate terms, but good luck investing the short term.[/FONT]
[FONT=&]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]I’ll see you in ten years, even though one of the three general forecasts has already occurred, the second forecast is unconfirmed and the third forecast won’t take more than 4 years.

But keep on anecdotally learning... it's such an efficient method...[/FONT]

They agree with you? Name 3 top experts in this field who agree with your current conclusions

 

[Buck Naked]

They agree with you? Name 3 top experts in this field who agree with your current conclusions

I don’t care if other experts agree with me or not. I do my own work and make my own decisions, without basing anything on what others may forecast.


That’s a very strange post you have made. Do you really think “experts” are looking around for other experts that agree for one to make a trade or investment. Ridiculous.

 

[vegas giants]

[FONT=&]I don’t care if other experts agree with me or not. I do my own work and make my own decisions, without basing anything on what others may forecast. [/FONT]
[FONT=&]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]That’s a very strange post you have made. Do you really think “experts” are looking around for other experts that agree for one to make a trade or investment. Ridiculous.[/FONT]

That's what I thought. I'm sure you are a billionaire based on your theory. Lol

 

[Buck Naked]

That's what I thought.

Thought what?

I'm sure you are a billionaire based on your theory. Lol

I made no such claims.
More ridiculous comments. But I have forecasted the dramatic drop of the DJI as well as the dramatic rise in unemployment. You've got nothing, but ridiculous, flippant comments. :2wave:

 

[vegas giants]

Thought what?



I made no such claims.
More ridiculous comments. But I have forecasted the dramatic drop of the DJI as well as the dramatic rise in unemployment. You've got nothing, but ridiculous, flippant comments. :2wave:

Oh look some guy in the Internet has a theory that he can not get a single expert to back up. Lol


Good luck