The GOP is in trouble.

Islam, the world's fastest-growing faith, will leap from 1.6 billion (in 2010) to 2.76 billion by 2050, according to the Pew study. At that time, Muslims will make up nearly one-third of the world's total projected population of about 9 billion people.

-- Atheists, agnostics and religiously unaffiliated people will increase in the United States (from 16% to 26%) but decline as a share of the total worldwide population.
-- Also in the United States, Christians will drop from 78% to 66% of population. Muslims will surpass Jews as the largest non-Christian religion in the U.S.
-- The number of countries with Christian majorities will drop to 151, as Christians are projected to decrease in Australia, Benin, Bosnia-Herzegovina, France, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the Republic of Macedonia and the United Kingdom.

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The Republican Party is already in a deep hole with Latinos because of its dismal track record on immigration, its hate-filled rhetoric surrounding the immigration debate, and the GOP lawsuit against President Obama’s executive action on immigration — which 89 percent of Latinos support. The last two GOP presidential nominees — Arizona Sen. John McCain and Mitt Romney — received 31 percent and 27 percent of the Latino vote, respectively. In order to win, a GOP candidate needs at least 40 percent of Latinos. The Trump episode will exact an unaffordable political cost on Republicans, making it impossible to reach the needed threshold.

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The nation’s demographics are on a clear trajectory: White people are dying faster than they are being born, which means they are on target to become a minority in the United States in 30 years.

For the third year in a row, deaths of non-Hispanic whites outnumbered births, according to detailed population estimates for states and counties released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau.

“This is without historical precedent,” said Kenneth Johnson, the senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire’s Carsey School of Public Policy. “The minority population is growing, and the non-Hispanic white population is not.”

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The modern GOP’s increasing reliance on a shrinking pool of older, white, and working-class voters — and its failure to attract nonwhite voters — would seem to present an enormous obstacle to the eventual Republican nominee. In 1980, when nonwhite voters were just 12 percent of the electorate, Ronald Reagan won 56 percent of white voters and was elected in a landslide. But in 2012, when nonwhite voters accounted for 28 percent of the electorate, Mitt Romney took 59 percent of white voters — and lost the presidential race by 4 percentage points. Without a total brand makeover, how can Republicans expect to prevail with an even more diverse electorate in 2016?…

If the electorate evolves in sync with the Census Bureau’s estimates of the adult citizen population (admittedly, a big if), the white share of the electorate would drop from 72 percent in 2012 to 70 percent in 2016; the African-American share would remain stable at 13 percent; the Latino portion would grow from 10 percent to 11 percent; and the Asian/other segment would increase from 5 percent to 6 percent. If the 2012 election had been held with that breakdown (keeping all other variables stable), President Obama would have won by 5.4 percentage points rather than by his actual 3.85-point margin.

In addition, the group with which the GOP does best — whites without college degrees — is the only one poised to shrink in 2016. President Obama won just 36 percent of these voters in 2012, while 42 percent of white voters with college degrees pulled the lever for him. But if the electorate changes in line with census estimates, the slice of college-educated whites will grow by 1 point, to 37 percent of all voters, while the portion of whites without degrees will shrink 3 points, to just 33 percent of the total.

In other words, the GOP doesn’t just have a growing problem with nonwhites; it has a shrinkage problem as well, as conservative white seniors are supplanted by college-educated millennials with different cultural attitudes.

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Roadvirus said:

Blah blah blah GOP will cease to exist if it doesn't suck up to the Hispanics blah blah blah Whites are becoming irrelevant blah blah blah

If the GOP dies, at least it will be with dignity and not on their knees kissing asses.

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Henrin said:

I'm still wondering why almost the whole map is red if the GOP is dying. Why is it that liberals can struggle to win all over the country and still claim to be doing ok?

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Jack Hays said:

The Democratic Party has existed continuously since Thomas Jefferson. A "not Democratic Party" alternative has existed from the Whigs onward. The lineage has been Whig-Free Soil-Republican. If the Republican Party dies, a new "not Democratic Party" alternative will arise.

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David_N said:

I think you need to, you know, realize that this is a problem for the GOP going into the future. ESPECIALLY when it comes to the presidential election.
This helps:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering_in_the_United_States

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David_N said:

I agree, the republicans will have to drastically change within the next few decades. Abandoning most of their rhetoric in regards to immigration, islam...

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Henrin said:

Gerrymandering is just the tired stupid excuse that democrats have been running with for a long time now. Presidential elections depend on population centers and if the democrats can maintain them they should be fine, but the whole country is not a population center like New York and democrats actually do need to win elections besides the presidential election.

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David_N said:

Gerrymandering is real.
It's going to be a real challenge for the GOP nationwide when minority populations continue to rise, along with the irreligious.

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David_N said:

Gerrymandering is real.
It's going to be a real challenge for the GOP nationwide when minority populations continue to rise, along with the irreligious.

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David_N said:

Gerrymandering is real.
It's going to be a real challenge for the GOP nationwide when minority populations continue to rise, along with the irreligious.

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Jack Hays said:

The Democrats lived on gerrymandering for decades. Turnabout is fair play. There is no reason to suppose minorities and the irreligious inherently prefer Democrats. I'm agnostic and I don't.

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David_N said:

I'm sure everyone has heard this before, but I truly believe the republican party is in trouble and will need to drastically change going into the future.
Many things play into this..
As we are all aware, the GOP is the "religious" party, or so it seems..
This is bad news, considering the following:
The fastest growing religion in the world is ... - CNN.com

As one can see, christianity is in decline and Islam is growing. Oddly enough, the GOP loves to alienate islamic voters and rally against islam, examples being rejecting refugees if they're not christian, banning all muslims, etc, etc.. Now, to be fair, not all GOP candidates are as vicious towards Islam. But it's a problem considering the GOP hasn't had a good record with Islam and shows no signs of changing this.
The GOP has a problem with minorities that they don't seem to be solving either. It doesn't help that they rally against immigration.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2015/07/14/opinion-republicans-are-in-big-trouble/

Now, it's no debate that the GOP relies on white voters, and they particularly appeal to the religious, specifically christians. This is a problem, since we know that christians are shrinking and islam is growing, along with atheism/agnosticism.
NationalJournal

Whites Projected to Become a US Minority | Al Jazeera America

Minority population gains accounted for 95 percent of the U.S. population increase, largely due to Hispanic and Asian immigration, and more births.

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Jack Hays said:

The Democrats lived on gerrymandering for decades. Turnabout is fair play. There is no reason to suppose minorities and the irreligious inherently prefer Democrats. I'm agnostic and I don't.

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Riveroaks said:

Well for a party in trouble the GOP sure controls the US House and Senate rather well.

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David_N said:

Of course they did.
Let's be honest here Jack.
Minorities are not voting republican and whites are shrinking as time goes on. The republican rhetoric on immigration/islam is not going to help.

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David_N said:

Of course they did.
Let's be honest here Jack.
Minorities are not voting republican in any majority I'm aware of and whites are shrinking in # as time goes on. The republican rhetoric on immigration/islam is not going to help.

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David_N said:

Gerrymandering is real.
It's going to be a real challenge for the GOP nationwide when minority populations continue to rise, along with the irreligious.

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David_N said:

"Going into the future."
I made it pretty clear.

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Ray410 said:

Here's what democrats really need to worry about:

"Whites as a whole, who made up 75 percent of this year’s electorate, voted for Republican House candidates by a 24-point margin, 62-38, the exact same margin by which they supported Republican candidates in the 2010 midterms. In 2006, when opposition to President George W. Bush was intense, Republicans won white voters by eight points, 52-44."

"The opposition of whites to the Democratic Party is visible not only in voting behavior, but in general opposition to key Democratic policy initiatives, most tellingly in hostility toward the Affordable Care Act. A November 2013 National Journal poll found, for example, that 58 percent of whites said Obamacare would make things worse for “people like you and your family,” more than double the 25 percent that said that Obamacare would make things better." http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/12/o...the-demise-of-the-white-democratic-voter.html




Without getting the whites back to the Democrat Party, Democrats are done for. The only cohesiveness right now between the various disaffected groups that comprise the Democrat Party is the old phrase "The Enemy of my enemy is my friend." The Democrat leadership has to keep the lid on tighter and tighter to keep those disparate groups in line. For instance, look at the growing unpublished animosity between the Mexicans and the blacks. The beloved Muslims aren't going to align with anybody in the Democrat Party, particularly the gays.

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David_N said:

I agree, the republicans will have to drastically change within the next few decades. Abandoning most of their rhetoric in regards to immigration, islam...

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Ray410 said:

Here's what democrats really need to worry about:

"Whites as a whole, who made up 75 percent of this year’s electorate, voted for Republican House candidates by a 24-point margin, 62-38, the exact same margin by which they supported Republican candidates in the 2010 midterms. In 2006, when opposition to President George W. Bush was intense, Republicans won white voters by eight points, 52-44."

"The opposition of whites to the Democratic Party is visible not only in voting behavior, but in general opposition to key Democratic policy initiatives, most tellingly in hostility toward the Affordable Care Act. A November 2013 National Journal poll found, for example, that 58 percent of whites said Obamacare would make things worse for “people like you and your family,” more than double the 25 percent that said that Obamacare would make things better." http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/12/o...the-demise-of-the-white-democratic-voter.html




Without getting the whites back to the Democrat Party, Democrats are done for. The only cohesiveness right now between the various disaffected groups that comprise the Democrat Party is the old phrase "The Enemy of my enemy is my friend." The Democrat leadership has to keep the lid on tighter and tighter to keep those disparate groups in line. For instance, look at the growing unpublished animosity between the Mexicans and the blacks. The beloved Muslims aren't going to align with anybody in the Democrat Party, particularly the gays.

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