The GOP Gives Up on the Arizona Senate Race

[Jkca1]

The writing is on the wall in August! I thought AZ was Trump country? I guess 2020 killed the hopes and dreams of the GOP;

"The National Republican Senatorial Committee has cut some of its planned ads in Arizona's U.S. Senate race, but it maintains it isn't giving up."

"The National Republican Senatorial Committee canceled a week’s worth of mid-August ads in Arizona worth $1.4 million and about $2.1 million in ads planned to run in late September through much of October, according to figures tracked by AdImpact, a nonpartisan media research company, and shared with The Arizona Republic."

https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...-pulls-money-arizona-senate-race/10334658002/

Not giving up but spending less? That's usually they key to victory in most elections right? Polling must show Mark Kelley is so far ahead that money is now going to candidates with a chance.

With two Democratic Senators already in office, and one about to be re-elected, all that's needed is a democratic Gov. to make GOP members jump into the Grand Canyon. Then maybe we can start paying our teachers a decent wage.

 

[Loulit01]

The writing is on the wall in August! I thought AZ was Trump country? I guess 2020 killed the hopes and dreams of the GOP;

"The National Republican Senatorial Committee has cut some of its planned ads in Arizona's U.S. Senate race, but it maintains it isn't giving up."

"The National Republican Senatorial Committee canceled a week’s worth of mid-August ads in Arizona worth $1.4 million and about $2.1 million in ads planned to run in late September through much of October, according to figures tracked by AdImpact, a nonpartisan media research company, and shared with The Arizona Republic."

https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...-pulls-money-arizona-senate-race/10334658002/

Not giving up but spending less? That's usually they key to victory in most elections right? Polling must show Mark Kelley is so far ahead that money is now going to candidates with a chance.

With two Democratic Senators already in office, and one about to be re-elected, all that's needed is a democratic Gov. to make GOP members jump into the Grand Canyon. Then maybe we can start paying our teachers a decent wage.

The NRSC may be saving the money for a good clean dirty attack ad blitz closer to the election.

 

[Mycroft]

The writing is on the wall in August! I thought AZ was Trump country? I guess 2020 killed the hopes and dreams of the GOP;

"The National Republican Senatorial Committee has cut some of its planned ads in Arizona's U.S. Senate race, but it maintains it isn't giving up."

"The National Republican Senatorial Committee canceled a week’s worth of mid-August ads in Arizona worth $1.4 million and about $2.1 million in ads planned to run in late September through much of October, according to figures tracked by AdImpact, a nonpartisan media research company, and shared with The Arizona Republic."

https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...-pulls-money-arizona-senate-race/10334658002/

Not giving up but spending less? That's usually they key to victory in most elections right? Polling must show Mark Kelley is so far ahead that money is now going to candidates with a chance.

With two Democratic Senators already in office, and one about to be re-elected, all that's needed is a democratic Gov. to make GOP members jump into the Grand Canyon. Then maybe we can start paying our teachers a decent wage.

You need to read more than the first couple of paragraphs of an article.

The committee, which is the arm of the national GOP that is dedicated to electing Republicans to the Senate, added back about $800,000 in ads for mid-September.

Chris Hartline, an NRSC spokesperson, said the organization plans to reprogram money that it would have spent without Masters’ input back into the Arizona race in coordination with Masters’ campaign.

“We’re not abandoning Arizona. We’re not taking money from Arizona and spending it elsewhere,” Hartline said.

“We can get better (advertising) rates if we do coordinated spending and hybrid ads with our candidates than we can from the (independent expenditure) side.” He acknowledged the discount for coordinated spending had always existed.

“We’ve found a lot of success going with the hybrid and coordinated route because of the rates and the control that we have,” he said.​

 

[Callen]

It was reported that the GOP pulled ads in WI, AZ and PA. Looks like they don't like what they see when Trumpers are running at a Ste level. WOnder if Ohio might be next. Great news for Dems

 

[Jkca1]

You need to read more than the first couple of paragraphs of an article.

​

The committee, which is the arm of the national GOP that is dedicated to electing Republicans to the Senate, added back about $800,000 in ads for mid-September.​

​

Chris Hartline, an NRSC spokesperson, said the organization plans to reprogram money that it would have spent without Masters’ input back into the Arizona race in coordination with Masters’ campaign.​

​

“We’re not abandoning Arizona. We’re not taking money from Arizona and spending it elsewhere,” Hartline said.​

​

“We can get better (advertising) rates if we do coordinated spending and hybrid ads with our candidates than we can from the (independent expenditure) side.” He acknowledged the discount for coordinated spending had always existed.​

​

“We’ve found a lot of success going with the hybrid and coordinated route because of the rates and the control that we have,” he said.​

I am not sure where you are from but I live in AZ. The GOP senatorial candidate winner was reamed by his challenger in the primary, while Mark Kelly was getting endorsements from Republican businessmen. Here is one of Master's quotes that all but ended his campaign;

"Maybe we should privatize Social Security, right? Private retirement accounts. Get the government out of it." (Arizona has one of the highest percentages of residents ages 65 years and older.)"

 

[Perotista]

The writing is on the wall in August! I thought AZ was Trump country? I guess 2020 killed the hopes and dreams of the GOP;

"The National Republican Senatorial Committee has cut some of its planned ads in Arizona's U.S. Senate race, but it maintains it isn't giving up."

"The National Republican Senatorial Committee canceled a week’s worth of mid-August ads in Arizona worth $1.4 million and about $2.1 million in ads planned to run in late September through much of October, according to figures tracked by AdImpact, a nonpartisan media research company, and shared with The Arizona Republic."

https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...-pulls-money-arizona-senate-race/10334658002/

Not giving up but spending less? That's usually they key to victory in most elections right? Polling must show Mark Kelley is so far ahead that money is now going to candidates with a chance.

With two Democratic Senators already in office, and one about to be re-elected, all that's needed is a democratic Gov. to make GOP members jump into the Grand Canyon. Then maybe we can start paying our teachers a decent wage.

Arizona isn’t the only state:

“Since Aug. 1, the NRSC has cut ad buys in the battleground states of Pennsylvania ($7.5 million), Arizona ($3.5 million), Wisconsin ($2.5 million) and Nevada ($1.5 million), according to the ad tracking service AdImpact. Separately, a Democratic source tracking advertising buys estimated roughly $10.5 million in cuts by the NRSC since the first of the month.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/15/gop-slashes-ads-in-key-senate-battlegrounds-00051969

PA, Fetterman leads Oz by 11 points, AZ, Kelly leads Masters by 11 points, Ohio, Ryan leads Vance by 4 points, WI Barnes leads Johnson by 2, NV Cortez-Masto leads Laxalt by 2, GA Warnock leading Walker by 3. All GOP candidates now trailing were Trump endorsed, chosen in other words. All seems very poor general election candidates. Except for Johnson who is a GOP incumbent senator, there were much better general election candidates than the ones Trump choose to endorse.

I’d say Trump’s search for revenge has almost guaranteed the senate to remain in Democratic hands. The GOP is set to lose 3-4 governorships also while they still probably will regain control of the house, it won’t be by much. Mainly because independents don’t like Trump much, they’re very hesitant to vote for Trump endorsed candidate, for a party’s candidates that is led by Trump. In other words, Trump is a gift that keeps right on giving to the democrats. If I were a Democrat, I send Trump a bunch of thankyou notes and try to keep him around for 2024.

 

[Callen]

Arizona isn’t the only state:

“Since Aug. 1, the NRSC has cut ad buys in the battleground states of Pennsylvania ($7.5 million), Arizona ($3.5 million), Wisconsin ($2.5 million) and Nevada ($1.5 million), according to the ad tracking service AdImpact. Separately, a Democratic source tracking advertising buys estimated roughly $10.5 million in cuts by the NRSC since the first of the month.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/15/gop-slashes-ads-in-key-senate-battlegrounds-00051969

PA, Fetterman leads Oz by 11 points, AZ, Kelly leads Masters by 11 points, Ohio, Ryan leads Vance by 4 points, WI Barnes leads Johnson by 2, NV Cortez-Masto leads Laxalt by 2, GA Warnock leading Walker by 3. All GOP candidates now trailing were Trump endorsed, chosen in other words. All seems very poor general election candidates. Except for Johnson who is a GOP incumbent senator, there were much better general election candidates than the ones Trump choose to endorse.

I’d say Trump’s search for revenge has almost guaranteed the senate to remain in Democratic hands. The GOP is set to lose 3-4 governorships also while they still probably will regain control of the house, it won’t be by much. Mainly because independents don’t like Trump much, they’re very hesitant to vote for Trump endorsed candidate, for a party’s candidates that is led by Trump. In other words, Trump is a gift that keeps right on giving to the democrats. If I were a Democrat, I send Trump a bunch of thankyou notes and try to keep him around for 2024.

We will see how it ultimately plays out but I have long thought that "Trumper" type candidates would not play well at a State level. We are seeing that with Governor races too. The broader the electorate the more a desire to move away from Trumpism. I think the House still flips, but not by as much as I once did, and that the Dems keep and grow the Senate.

 

[lwf]

The writing is on the wall in August! I thought AZ was Trump country? I guess 2020 killed the hopes and dreams of the GOP;

"The National Republican Senatorial Committee has cut some of its planned ads in Arizona's U.S. Senate race, but it maintains it isn't giving up."

"The National Republican Senatorial Committee canceled a week’s worth of mid-August ads in Arizona worth $1.4 million and about $2.1 million in ads planned to run in late September through much of October, according to figures tracked by AdImpact, a nonpartisan media research company, and shared with The Arizona Republic."

https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...-pulls-money-arizona-senate-race/10334658002/

Not giving up but spending less? That's usually they key to victory in most elections right? Polling must show Mark Kelley is so far ahead that money is now going to candidates with a chance.

With two Democratic Senators already in office, and one about to be re-elected, all that's needed is a democratic Gov. to make GOP members jump into the Grand Canyon. Then maybe we can start paying our teachers a decent wage.

This is why the Fox News narrative is starting to shift away from Trump. The GOP is seeing the writing on the wall. They can't win with a Trump ticket anymore even in red states. Now they need to do whatever they possibly can to convince Trump to support someone else, or they can pretty much throw in the towel in 2024 if Trump runs for president on an independent ticket.

 

[What if...?]

Arizona isn’t the only state:

“Since Aug. 1, the NRSC has cut ad buys in the battleground states of Pennsylvania ($7.5 million), Arizona ($3.5 million), Wisconsin ($2.5 million) and Nevada ($1.5 million), according to the ad tracking service AdImpact. Separately, a Democratic source tracking advertising buys estimated roughly $10.5 million in cuts by the NRSC since the first of the month.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/15/gop-slashes-ads-in-key-senate-battlegrounds-00051969

PA, Fetterman leads Oz by 11 points, AZ, Kelly leads Masters by 11 points, Ohio, Ryan leads Vance by 4 points, WI Barnes leads Johnson by 2, NV Cortez-Masto leads Laxalt by 2, GA Warnock leading Walker by 3. All GOP candidates now trailing were Trump endorsed, chosen in other words. All seems very poor general election candidates. Except for Johnson who is a GOP incumbent senator, there were much better general election candidates than the ones Trump choose to endorse.

I’d say Trump’s search for revenge has almost guaranteed the senate to remain in Democratic hands. The GOP is set to lose 3-4 governorships also while they still probably will regain control of the house, it won’t be by much. Mainly because independents don’t like Trump much, they’re very hesitant to vote for Trump endorsed candidate, for a party’s candidates that is led by Trump. In other words, Trump is a gift that keeps right on giving to the democrats. If I were a Democrat, I send Trump a bunch of thankyou notes and try to keep him around for 2024.

Oh man, we should actually do that!

His head would explode!

 

[Perotista]

We will see how it ultimately plays out but I have long thought that "Trumper" type candidates would not play well at a State level. We are seeing that with Governor races too. The broader the electorate the more a desire to move away from Trumpism. I think the House still flips, but not by as much as I once did, and that the Dems keep and grow the Senate.

That’s how I see it too. The Democrats seem to be in very good shape when it comes to retaining their tossup states. The GOP, not so good in PA, WI and NC. As for the House, an 18-20 seat Republican pickup seems likely today. This is going district by district and not by the generic congressional ballot. The Republicans have seen a 3.5-point lead in the generic in June shrink to 0.1 or a tenth of a point today.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

Chances are as we get nearer to election day, that 18-20 seat pickup will probably shrink to 8-10. Enough to give the GOP control of the house being they need a net gain of 4. Except for Republicans, Trumpers, the rest of the nation wants to move on away from Trump. They’re sick and tired of him. With a president with an approval rating of 40%, the historical average for the party out of power is 48.5 house seats gained, 6 senate seats gain. That’s not going to happen this time. All thanks to Trump.

Trump is the best thing the Democrats have going for them. At least election wise.

 

[Perotista]

Oh man, we should actually do that!

His head would explode!

If one reads between the lines in numerous articles about the upcoming midterms, the Republican Party establishment knows Trump is a huge drag on their election chances this midterm. But with an avid following of supporters which makes up the majority of the GOP base vote, the GOP establishment can’t afford to buck or send Trump packing into oblivion. They’re afraid they’d lose the Trumper’s vote.


As I see it, it’s either keep Trump and support him to the hilt along with Trump's chosen candidate and lose the independent vote. Which would be a catastrophe since the Republican Party is still the smaller of the two major parties and as such, they must win the independent vote or lose the election. Or they can ditch Trump and lose the support of Trumpers and their vote, once again lose the election. It’s a catch 22 or being between a rock and a hard place.

I'm sure the Democrats will gain 3-4 governors, 1-2 senate seats and keep their loses to a minimum in the house, although the Republicans will retake control by a slim majority. This is as of today with all the numbers available today.

 

[What if...?]

If one reads between the lines in numerous articles about the upcoming midterms, the Republican Party establishment knows Trump is a huge drag on their election chances this midterm. But with an avid following of supporters which makes up the majority of the GOP base vote, the GOP establishment can’t afford to buck or send Trump packing into oblivion. They’re afraid they’d lose the Trumper’s vote.


As I see it, it’s either keep Trump and support him to the hilt along with Trump's chosen candidate and lose the independent vote. Which would be a catastrophe since the Republican Party is still the smaller of the two major parties and as such, they must win the independent vote or lose the election. Or they can ditch Trump and lose the support of Trumpers and their vote, once again lose the election. It’s a catch 22 or being between a rock and a hard place.

I'm sure the Democrats will gain 3-4 governors, 1-2 senate seats and keep their loses to a minimum in the house, although the Republicans will retake control by a slim majority. This is as of today with all the numbers available today.

That’s been the republican’s problem since the trump phenomenon manifested: how do you keep the independents and the trump contingent on the train when neither side is fond of the other so any narrative crafted for one group will likely alienate the other.

As it’s a consequence of mass propaganda action, I find it potentially good for the country that the republicans will have to choose one or the other eventually and I doubt it’s gonna be the independents that get jettisoned.

At this point I would be good with the dems negotiating a “truce” in some form with the regular republicans where the democrats promise to “pause” their agendas for an election or two if the republicans cut the trump crew loose. So the independents have less to fear and the democrats Demonstrate they can put country over party as well.

A bi-partisan rejection of trumpism.

 

[Mycroft]

I am not sure where you are from but I live in AZ. The GOP senatorial candidate winner was reamed by his challenger in the primary, while Mark Kelly was getting endorsements from Republican businessmen. Here is one of Master's quotes that all but ended his campaign;

"Maybe we should privatize Social Security, right? Private retirement accounts. Get the government out of it." (Arizona has one of the highest percentages of residents ages 65 years and older.)"

All of this is irrelevant to the point you were trying to make in your OP...which was that the GOP is giving up in AZ. Your own article disputed that contention.

 

[Jkca1]

It would not surprise me to see Trump endorsed candidates win a majority of seats this fall. That would only encourage the far right to continue on a path were they become more and more enamored in the belief that only they can "save" America.

All of this is irrelevant to the point you were trying to make in your OP...which was that the GOP is giving up in AZ. Your own article disputed that contention.

What the article said was they are planning to spend later in the year. Until there is money on the table it's just talk. I don't expect the GOP to spend money on a candidate they know is going to lose, when they can send that money to races where the outcome is in doubt. Do you? To make matters worse for Masters, take a look at the piece of work that is running for AZ Gov. on the GOP ticket. If you like drag queens at children's birthday parties Kari is your candidate! If you think that Masters has a chance of winning in November I say think back to 2020. The GOP got decimated in AZ Why will it be different this time?

 

[beefheart]

Brakemasters is a clown, Kelly is liked and respected, all you need to know.

 

[Callen]

Funny how are resident right-wing poll lover has gone radio silent. Seems the polls aren't going her way and she only posts them when they are. Biden is ticking up and the key Senate races are looking very good for Dems.

 

[Perotista]

That’s been the republican’s problem since the trump phenomenon manifested: how do you keep the independents and the trump contingent on the train when neither side is fond of the other so any narrative crafted for one group will likely alienate the other.

As it’s a consequence of mass propaganda action, I find it potentially good for the country that the republicans will have to choose one or the other eventually and I doubt it’s gonna be the independents that get jettisoned.

At this point I would be good with the dems negotiating a “truce” in some form with the regular republicans where the democrats promise to “pause” their agendas for an election or two if the republicans cut the trump crew loose. So the independents have less to fear and the democrats Demonstrate they can put country over party as well.

A bi-partisan rejection of trumpism.

Let’s see what the Republicans do after the midterms. There will be no red wave as most Republicans expected. Even today, you have many Trumpers talking about retaking both chambers of congress by huge numbers on this site. I don’t know what they been smoking, the numbers are out there for one and all to see.

I think not being able to retake the senate and probably by the skin of their teeth regain the house, that may serve as a wake-up call for most Republicans stating Trump must go or the GOP will keep right on losing elections. One can hope. Which brings back to money. Remember after 1-6 there were several articles about some mega-Republican donors stating as long as the GOP is lea by Trump or the party of Trump, they won’t donate to the party. Every now and then another one of these articles shows up over the last year and a half. It seems a bunch of these mega-republican donors are sticking to their word. Why else would the Republican senate campaign committee be short on cash?

I believe independents or at least around 60% of them have joined Democrats in being anti-Trump. But that doesn’t make independents anti-Republican Party or pro-Democratic Party. All three are viewed negatively by independents, Trump at 55%, the Republican Party at 56%, the democratic party at 63%.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/33oc20o9t6/econTabReport.pdf

So what independents do, they’ll vote for the party and candidates they least want to lose although in reality, they want both to lose.

 

[Roadvirus]

The NRSC is calling NY Slimes out:

GOP Senate campaign group blasts 'false' New York Times report on ad spending

The NRSC blasted The New York Times over a "false" report that they were cutting TV ad buys ahead of the November midterms due to possible "fund-raising trouble."

www.foxnews.com

 

[Mycroft]

It would not surprise me to see Trump endorsed candidates win a majority of seats this fall. That would only encourage the far right to continue on a path were they become more and more enamored in the belief that only they can "save" America.

What the article said was they are planning to spend later in the year. Until there is money on the table it's just talk. I don't expect the GOP to spend money on a candidate they know is going to lose, when they can send that money to races where the outcome is in doubt. Do you? To make matters worse for Masters, take a look at the piece of work that is running for AZ Gov. on the GOP ticket. If you like drag queens at children's birthday parties Kari is your candidate! If you think that Masters has a chance of winning in November I say think back to 2020. The GOP got decimated in AZ Why will it be different this time?

You should read the article again. Hell, just read the part that I quoted. What you are saying is not what the article says.

 

[OpportunityCost]

The GOP establishment lowering ad buys for Trump backed candidates. I don't think anyone that knows Republican politics can call that a surprise.

I don't think this has anything to do with giving up, it has to do with controlling internal party politics, "they" don't want Trump supported politicians in DC.

 

[Exquisitor]

The writing is on the wall in August! I thought AZ was Trump country? I guess 2020 killed the hopes and dreams of the GOP;

"The National Republican Senatorial Committee has cut some of its planned ads in Arizona's U.S. Senate race, but it maintains it isn't giving up."

"The National Republican Senatorial Committee canceled a week’s worth of mid-August ads in Arizona worth $1.4 million and about $2.1 million in ads planned to run in late September through much of October, according to figures tracked by AdImpact, a nonpartisan media research company, and shared with The Arizona Republic."

https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...-pulls-money-arizona-senate-race/10334658002/

Not giving up but spending less? That's usually they key to victory in most elections right? Polling must show Mark Kelley is so far ahead that money is now going to candidates with a chance.

With two Democratic Senators already in office, and one about to be re-elected, all that's needed is a democratic Gov. to make GOP members jump into the Grand Canyon. Then maybe we can start paying our teachers a decent wage.

Good for Arizona, go Arizona, go Arizona Democrats, who will join you?

 

[Brack]

The GOP establishment lowering ad buys for Trump backed candidates. I don't think anyone that knows Republican politics can call that a surprise.

I don't think this has anything to do with giving up, it has to do with controlling internal party politics, "they" don't want Trump supported politicians in DC.

I don't want an anti-abortion extremist Trump endorsed candidate as my Senator. I will be voting for Senator Kelly.

 

[911Sparky]

Arizona isn’t the only state:

“Since Aug. 1, the NRSC has cut ad buys in the battleground states of Pennsylvania ($7.5 million), Arizona ($3.5 million), Wisconsin ($2.5 million) and Nevada ($1.5 million), according to the ad tracking service AdImpact. Separately, a Democratic source tracking advertising buys estimated roughly $10.5 million in cuts by the NRSC since the first of the month.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/15/gop-slashes-ads-in-key-senate-battlegrounds-00051969

PA, Fetterman leads Oz by 11 points, AZ, Kelly leads Masters by 11 points, Ohio, Ryan leads Vance by 4 points, WI Barnes leads Johnson by 2, NV Cortez-Masto leads Laxalt by 2, GA Warnock leading Walker by 3. All GOP candidates now trailing were Trump endorsed, chosen in other words. All seems very poor general election candidates. Except for Johnson who is a GOP incumbent senator, there were much better general election candidates than the ones Trump choose to endorse.

I’d say Trump’s search for revenge has almost guaranteed the senate to remain in Democratic hands. The GOP is set to lose 3-4 governorships also while they still probably will regain control of the house, it won’t be by much. Mainly because independents don’t like Trump much, they’re very hesitant to vote for Trump endorsed candidate, for a party’s candidates that is led by Trump. In other words, Trump is a gift that keeps right on giving to the democrats. If I were a Democrat, I send Trump a bunch of thankyou notes and try to keep him around for 2024.

I posted in another thread the possibility that trump is secretly working for the dems, I was joking but he is helping dems even if it wasn't his intention.

 

[Perotista]

I posted in another thread the possibility that trump is secretly working for the dems, I was joking but he is helping dems even if it wasn't his intention.

I’d say not intentional, but maybe it is in a way. Trump has endorsed and help a lot of very poor general election candidates win their primaries. Where another candidate would have had a much better chance of success in November. I think a lot of that was for revenge and not to help the GOP win come the midterms. This goes for both the senate and governorships. Even Mitch McConnell has noticed the very poor quality of Republican senate candidates.

https://www.businessinsider.com/mcc...licans-2022-senate-elections-struggles-2022-8

Then there is the hesitancy of independents to vote for Republican candidates this fall due to the fact they’ve never liked Trump. They don’t trust a Trump led party’s candidates. With a president whose approval is around 40% a red wave should be happening. What is going by today’s numbers the Democrats will keep the senate, gain a seat or two. They’ll also gain 3-4 governorships while holding the Republicans gain in the house to 18-20 seats. History shows that when a president has an approval of around 40% the average gain for the party out of power is 48.5 house seats and 6 senate seats. Here some history.

Biden 2022 40% ?????? projected loss of 18-20 house seats, gain of 2 senate seats as of 20 August along with gaining 3 governorships

Trump 2018 40% lost 44 house seats, 3 senate seats

Obama 2010 42% lost 63 house seats, 6 senate seats

G.W. Bush 2006 33% lost 33 house seats, 6 senate seats

Bill Clinton 1994 42% lost 54 house seats, 9 senate seats

 

[911Sparky]

I’d say not intentional, but maybe it is in a way. Trump has endorsed and help a lot of very poor general election candidates win their primaries. Where another candidate would have had a much better chance of success in November. I think a lot of that was for revenge and not to help the GOP win come the midterms. This goes for both the senate and governorships. Even Mitch McConnell has noticed the very poor quality of Republican senate candidates.

https://www.businessinsider.com/mcc...licans-2022-senate-elections-struggles-2022-8

Then there is the hesitancy of independents to vote for Republican candidates this fall due to the fact they’ve never liked Trump. They don’t trust a Trump led party’s candidates. With a president whose approval is around 40% a red wave should be happening. What is going by today’s numbers the Democrats will keep the senate, gain a seat or two. They’ll also gain 3-4 governorships while holding the Republicans gain in the house to 18-20 seats. History shows that when a president has an approval of around 40% the average gain for the party out of power is 48.5 house seats and 6 senate seats. Here some history.

Biden 2022 40% ?????? projected loss of 18-20 house seats, gain of 2 senate seats as of 20 August along with gaining 3 governorships

Trump 2018 40% lost 44 house seats, 3 senate seats

Obama 2010 42% lost 63 house seats, 6 senate seats

G.W. Bush 2006 33% lost 33 house seats, 6 senate seats

Bill Clinton 1994 42% lost 54 house seats, 9 senate seats

Agree with this, except I see D's picking up 3 Senate seats, Penn., Ohio, and Wisconsin.