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The GISS finally releases their June temperature

longview

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I have been watching for several days to see when the GISS would release their June temperatures.
The Satellite data sets show the post El Nino temperatures drop to very close to the pre El Nino temperatures,
and I wanted to see if the GISS matched this.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
So June 2016 at .79 °C is just .01 °C ahead of 2015, so the last vestiges of the El Nino
appear to be gone.
This means the average monthly temperature has fallen a full .54 °C since the peak of the El Nino
in Feb.
 

Jack Hays

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Buzz

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I have been watching for several days to see when the GISS would release their June temperatures.
The Satellite data sets show the post El Nino temperatures drop to very close to the pre El Nino temperatures,
and I wanted to see if the GISS matched this.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
So June 2016 at .79 °C is just .01 °C ahead of 2015, so the last vestiges of the El Nino
appear to be gone.
This means the average monthly temperature has fallen a full .54 °C since the peak of the El Nino
in Feb.

Still the warmest June in recorded history.
 

Lord of Planar

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Got any data to back that up?

Past threads about corrections in the record.

Not doing your homework, for what you didn't read.
 

longview

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Still the warmest June in recorded history.
That is very subjective since .01 C is completely within the noise range.
Just for a second compare the warming from June 2105 to June 2016, with the other 5 months 2015 to 2016.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
2015 82 87 90 74 78 78 73 78 81 107 103 110
2016 114 133 129 109 93 79 **** **** **** **** **** ****
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Jan delta .32C
Feb delta .46C
Mar delta .39C
Apr delta .35C
May delta .15C
Jun delta .01C

The El Nino had enormous effect, adding a temporary .46C to at least one month.
Consider the entire warming since 1880 is likely under 1.00C, yet a single weather event
can offset the entire global average for an 8 month period by almost half of that amount.
The alarmist are more than happy, to claim a known weather event (El Nino) and say,
"LOOK, LOOK, the warmest month ever!".
 

longview

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Got any data to back that up?
In June/July 2015, GISS changed the source of the data, here is the comparison of the 1979 to 2014.
The was the J-D columns.
giss_old new
1978 6 8
1979 12 17
1980 23 28
1981 28 33
1982 9 13
1983 27 31
1984 12 16
1985 8 12
1986 15 19
1987 29 34
1988 35 40
1989 24 29
1990 39 44
1991 38 42
1992 19 23
1993 21 24
1994 28 32
1995 43 46
1996 33 35
1997 45 48
1998 61 63
1999 40 42
2000 40 42
2001 53 55
2002 61 63
2003 60 62
2004 51 55
2005 65 69
2006 59 64
2007 63 66
2008 49 54
2009 59 65
2010 66 71
2011 55 60
2012 58 63
2013 61 66
2014 67 75
 

jmotivator

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Got any data to back that up?

2016-03-07114423.png
 

Threegoofs

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I have been watching for several days to see when the GISS would release their June temperatures.

Thats pretty sad.

The Satellite data sets show the post El Nino temperatures drop to very close to the pre El Nino temperatures,
and I wanted to see if the GISS matched this.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
So June 2016 at .79 °C is just .01 °C ahead of 2015, so the last vestiges of the El Nino
appear to be gone.
This means the average monthly temperature has fallen a full .54 °C since the peak of the El Nino
in Feb.

Thats eight months in a row of record temperatures, meaning each of those months have been the hottest months on record.

Looks to me like another firm datapoint for definitive AGW.

Its a spike on an upward trend, and if the last big El Nino tells us anything, its probably about close to the 'new normal', as ecosystems strain to deal with the change, and humans deal with the ever increasing extreme weather fallout.



I do find it a bit ironic that longview is trumpeting the fact that El Nino 'appears to be gone', but doesn't think of the fact that even though its 'gone', we still have record breaking temperatures.
 

humbolt

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Thats pretty sad.



Thats eight months in a row of record temperatures, meaning each of those months have been the hottest months on record.

Looks to me like another firm datapoint for definitive AGW.

Its a spike on an upward trend, and if the last big El Nino tells us anything, its probably about close to the 'new normal', as ecosystems strain to deal with the change, and humans deal with the ever increasing extreme weather fallout.



I do find it a bit ironic that longview is trumpeting the fact that El Nino 'appears to be gone', but doesn't think of the fact that even though its 'gone', we still have record breaking temperatures.

There could be ice cubes floating in the Nile and you'd claim it's another firm datapoint for AGW.
 

longview

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Thats pretty sad.



Thats eight months in a row of record temperatures, meaning each of those months have been the hottest months on record.

Looks to me like another firm datapoint for definitive AGW.

Its a spike on an upward trend, and if the last big El Nino tells us anything, its probably about close to the 'new normal', as ecosystems strain to deal with the change, and humans deal with the ever increasing extreme weather fallout.



I do find it a bit ironic that longview is trumpeting the fact that El Nino 'appears to be gone', but doesn't think of the fact that even though its 'gone', we still have record breaking temperatures.
I am guessing you think a delts of .01 C from last June means something, when the month to month fall since since
February has been .54 C
 

Threegoofs

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I am guessing you think a delts of .01 C from last June means something, when the month to month fall since since
February has been .54 C

It means its the hottest June on record, which follows a string of the last eight months which are also records.


Im sure you are dying to champion the next few months when the temperatures are merely at the low end of two standard deviations high..
 

longview

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It means its the hottest June on record, which follows a string of the last eight months which are also records.


Im sure you are dying to champion the next few months when the temperatures are merely at the low end of two standard deviations high..
When you say there is a string of records, which are known to be caused from a weather event,
it reduces the strength of your argument.
The El Nino caused a massive shift in temperatures.
The El Nino produced more warming in 6 months than in the preceding 20 years,
Thankfully is is a temporary weather event, and temperatures are returning back to the normal warming trend.
 

Buzz

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Past threads about corrections in the record.

Not doing your homework, for what you didn't read.

Your the one making the claim... so its your homework. You can't expect others to have to go searching this huge forum for, what is likely, a bunch of denialist misinformation.

Seems to me you use this lazy excuse a lot around here.

Are you afraid your going to look like an ignorant fool like Jack Hays?
 

Buzz

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In June/July 2015, GISS changed the source of the data, here is the comparison of the 1979 to 2014.
The was the J-D columns.
giss_old new
1978 6 8
1979 12 17
1980 23 28
1981 28 33
1982 9 13
1983 27 31
1984 12 16
1985 8 12
1986 15 19
1987 29 34
1988 35 40
1989 24 29
1990 39 44
1991 38 42
1992 19 23
1993 21 24
1994 28 32
1995 43 46
1996 33 35
1997 45 48
1998 61 63
1999 40 42
2000 40 42
2001 53 55
2002 61 63
2003 60 62
2004 51 55
2005 65 69
2006 59 64
2007 63 66
2008 49 54
2009 59 65
2010 66 71
2011 55 60
2012 58 63
2013 61 66
2014 67 75

Got a link for that?
 

Buzz

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When you say there is a string of records, which are known to be caused from a weather event,
it reduces the strength of your argument.
The El Nino caused a massive shift in temperatures.
The El Nino produced more warming in 6 months than in the preceding 20 years,
Thankfully is is a temporary weather event, and temperatures are returning back to the normal warming trend.

You need to realize that an El Nino is not a weather event. Weather events don't go on for months at a time. It is a climate variation.

Calling it weather is just more dishonesty.
 

Buzz

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It wouldn't be if they didn't downward revise past records.

Oh.... and so far from all the data presented here and that I have had the time to look for... you are likely wrong.
 

Lord of Planar

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Your the one making the claim... so its your homework.

You've been here for almost 2 years and haven't seen such things?

Am I to look up facts every six months because someone conveniently forget?

Sorry. Not wasting my time.
 

Mithrae

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Got a link for that?

Citation would be nice, but it's also worth noting that Jmotivator's graph concerns radiosonde (ie, balloon) temperatures, not the surface temperature product which this thread is about. Perhaps he didn't notice, or was hoping we wouldn't.

Got a link for that?

The official GISS anomalies do change fairly frequently, usually only by a few hundredths of a degree, though a few major updates have been made. I can't confirm the exact numbers for Longview's specific access dates, but one of my Google spreadsheets has some data saved from a while back which I can work out the J-D (January to December) anomalies from for a few record-high years, and we can check the current GISS data easily enough:

Code:
Yr	LV old	My old	LV new	GISS current
1998	61	61.5	63	63
2005	65	66	69	69
2010	66	66	71	71
2014	67	68	75	74

So Longview's information seems to be accurate.

Unfortunately...

In June/July 2015, GISS changed the source of the data, here is the comparison of the 1979 to 2014.
The was the J-D columns.
giss_old new
1978 6 8
1979 12 17

...

2013 61 66
2014 67 75

These particular changes don't fit the 'cooling the past' narrative: The adjustments to the first 18 years of that period made them an average of 4.17 hundredths of a degree warmer, whereas the adjustments to the last 18 years made them only 3.9 hundredths of a degree warmer. In other words, these adjustments represent a decrease in the warming trend over that period.


#####


In case anyone's interested, an archive of the GISS anomaly webpage from 2005 can be found here:
https://web.archive.org/web/2005091...ss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

The UAH satellite record underwent its own fairly big revision a while back (don't even remember if it was last year or this!):
Version 5.6 data can be found here - http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/temp-and-precip/upper-air/uahncdc.lt
And version 6.0 data here - http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt/tltglhmam_6.0beta5.txt

In the graph below I actually used v6.0 beta 4, not beta 5. However here's a comparison of the adjustments made between those dates/versions to each temperature series, over 35 year periods (starting 1979 for UAH and ending 2004 for GISS; 26 years' overlap).

GISSvsUAHadjust.jpg

Google spreadsheets
 
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Mithrae

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It wouldn't be if they didn't downward revise past records.

Flippant one-liners are very fun I'm sure, but as shown above we'd need to go back before 1980 to see any significant temperature adjustments relative to the present. Prior to 1980 the hottest Junes globally were in 1944 (0.16 anomaly by 2005 data, 0.23 current) and in 1977 (0.17 by 2005 data, 0.25 present). Note that in both cases the adjustments since 2005 have made those hot years warmer, not cooler. But even if they had been cooling adjustments, the overall relative adjustments between any two years is rarely more than 0.2 degrees (and always less than 0.3).

Even adding 0.3 degrees to June 1944 or June 1977 - which is absurd, because as we've seen their temperatures have already been revised upwards - would still leave these last two Junes hotter by more than 0.2 degrees.

Do you have some secret information not available to the rest of us, or were you just pulling a would-be witty remark out of your... imagination?
 

longview

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Got a link for that?
The current one is the GISS,
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
The older one was from the earlier spreadsheet download.
The GISS describes the change of data sources here,
Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) -- Updates to Analysis
June 13, 2015: NOAA's NCEI (formerly NCDC) switched from v3.2.2 to the new release v3.3.0 of the adjusted GHCN, which is our basic source. This upgrade included filling some gaps in a few station records and fixing some small bugs in the homogenization procedure. NCEI's description of those changes is available here. One of the impacts was removing some data that the GISS procedure had always eliminated and the list of GISS corrections was correspondingly reduced. Hence the (insignificant) impact on the GISS analysis was slightly different from the impact described in that document. The changes produced a decrease of 0.006°C/decade for the 1880 to 2014 trend of the annual mean land surface air temperature rather than the 0.003°C/decade increase reported by NCEI. Both are substantially less than the margin of error for that quantity (±0.016°C/decade). Impacts on the changes of the annual Land-Ocean temperature index (global surface air temperature) were about 5 to 10 times smaller than the margin of error for those estimates.

Please note that neither the land data nor the ocean data used in this analysis are the ones used in the NCEI paper "Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus" that appeared on June 4, 2015. For the ocean data, GISS still uses ERSST v3b rather than the newer ERSST v4, but will switch to that file next month, when we add the June 2015 data; the collection of land station data used in that paper includes many more sources than GHCN v3.3.0 and will probably be incorporated into a future GHCN v4.
 
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