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About the Israeli-Arab conflict: I refuse to take any sides. The situation is complex enough and passions are deep enough that no side can ever be justifiably picked by a neutral person.
What I'll say is merely a prediction. It doesn't mean at all that I find the outcome desirable in any way, shape or form. It's just what I *think* will happen.
I believe that the conflict will go on and on for the foreseeable future, and then will suddenly end with the thorough destruction of the state of Israel in a nuclear apocalypse.
There are in my opinion only three factors that have so far preserved the existence of the state of Israel, which is a small state surrounded by an overwhelming sea of enemies.
1. Huge technological gap between Israel and its enemies, with Israel possessing vastly superior armed forces and being armed with nukes
2. The fact that some of the Israeli sites are very important religious/sacred sites for all three major monotheistic religions therefore enemies would hesitate in destroying them
3. The International support for Israel
Now, why will Israel ultimately be destroyed, in my opinion?
1. The technological gap will progressively decrease then will be eliminated once rogue groups gain access to nuclear technology. Nukes provided that there are means to deliver them, effectively neutralize any conventional army superiority. Rogue groups don't operate under the same deterrence parameters that bona fide states use. So, it's not likely that the Iranians would attempt a nuclear attack on Israel since they don't want to be annihilated back and those ayatollahs are bent on regime survival, but rogue terrorist groups don't think like that. They will eventually acquire nukes and even the delivery means, and will spring to action. This action will fail at first but will eventually succeed.
2. The sacred sites - this part of the deterrence won't last forever as people radicalize more and more and hatred goes deeper and deeper, so that destructing Israel becomes more important than the preservation of the sacred sites
3. International support will count for nothing when suicidal extremists start carrying on the nuclear attacks; also, international support is linked to oil (which Israel itself doesn't have but the whole region does; so it's not interesting for other countries to see this region destabilized), which will become progressively less important as major countries become less dependent on Middle East oil. And also, support is linked to the influence of the Jewish community over the international financial system. However the financial geopolitics are changing (such as the recent creation of the BRICS' bank) and again, there will be less and less reason for other countries to support Israel.
So, it's just a question of time. Eventually Israel will be a vitrified desert. Maybe it will take a long time and some failed attempts (including because delivery means are not so easy to get by anything less structured than a major bona fide state, and can be defended against, or the potential attackers can be preemptively attacked - but at some point, it will happen, as the technology gets more and more sophisticated, smaller, and more portable, and also more and more widespread and accessible.
Once the Middle East becomes a contaminated nuclear wasteland, the conflict will then cease, for lack of combatants.
I don't think Israel will survive the end of the 21st century. A final, devastating, and successful attack on Israel will happen at some point in the next 85 years. They are just too tiny, and have very committed enemies that surround them by all sides (well, some are allies but it's just a convenient arrangement - the depth of these alliances is very shallow and unstable).
Faced with this reality Israel's best strategy would be to engage very energetically in an effort for peace, including the willingness to cede huge concessions to the Palestinians and other Arabs - anything would be better than certain destruction.
However, Israelis are not likely to see it like this. They will be in denial and will continue to trust their ability to prevail, so, the conflict will continue, until its sad end that I'm predicting.
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Confessedly, I'm no Middle East expert (and I'm no expert on small portable nuclear devices either). Maybe what I said above is total rubbish.
If it is, please enlighten me and tell me where and why I got it wrong.
What I'll say is merely a prediction. It doesn't mean at all that I find the outcome desirable in any way, shape or form. It's just what I *think* will happen.
I believe that the conflict will go on and on for the foreseeable future, and then will suddenly end with the thorough destruction of the state of Israel in a nuclear apocalypse.
There are in my opinion only three factors that have so far preserved the existence of the state of Israel, which is a small state surrounded by an overwhelming sea of enemies.
1. Huge technological gap between Israel and its enemies, with Israel possessing vastly superior armed forces and being armed with nukes
2. The fact that some of the Israeli sites are very important religious/sacred sites for all three major monotheistic religions therefore enemies would hesitate in destroying them
3. The International support for Israel
Now, why will Israel ultimately be destroyed, in my opinion?
1. The technological gap will progressively decrease then will be eliminated once rogue groups gain access to nuclear technology. Nukes provided that there are means to deliver them, effectively neutralize any conventional army superiority. Rogue groups don't operate under the same deterrence parameters that bona fide states use. So, it's not likely that the Iranians would attempt a nuclear attack on Israel since they don't want to be annihilated back and those ayatollahs are bent on regime survival, but rogue terrorist groups don't think like that. They will eventually acquire nukes and even the delivery means, and will spring to action. This action will fail at first but will eventually succeed.
2. The sacred sites - this part of the deterrence won't last forever as people radicalize more and more and hatred goes deeper and deeper, so that destructing Israel becomes more important than the preservation of the sacred sites
3. International support will count for nothing when suicidal extremists start carrying on the nuclear attacks; also, international support is linked to oil (which Israel itself doesn't have but the whole region does; so it's not interesting for other countries to see this region destabilized), which will become progressively less important as major countries become less dependent on Middle East oil. And also, support is linked to the influence of the Jewish community over the international financial system. However the financial geopolitics are changing (such as the recent creation of the BRICS' bank) and again, there will be less and less reason for other countries to support Israel.
So, it's just a question of time. Eventually Israel will be a vitrified desert. Maybe it will take a long time and some failed attempts (including because delivery means are not so easy to get by anything less structured than a major bona fide state, and can be defended against, or the potential attackers can be preemptively attacked - but at some point, it will happen, as the technology gets more and more sophisticated, smaller, and more portable, and also more and more widespread and accessible.
Once the Middle East becomes a contaminated nuclear wasteland, the conflict will then cease, for lack of combatants.
I don't think Israel will survive the end of the 21st century. A final, devastating, and successful attack on Israel will happen at some point in the next 85 years. They are just too tiny, and have very committed enemies that surround them by all sides (well, some are allies but it's just a convenient arrangement - the depth of these alliances is very shallow and unstable).
Faced with this reality Israel's best strategy would be to engage very energetically in an effort for peace, including the willingness to cede huge concessions to the Palestinians and other Arabs - anything would be better than certain destruction.
However, Israelis are not likely to see it like this. They will be in denial and will continue to trust their ability to prevail, so, the conflict will continue, until its sad end that I'm predicting.
--------
Confessedly, I'm no Middle East expert (and I'm no expert on small portable nuclear devices either). Maybe what I said above is total rubbish.
If it is, please enlighten me and tell me where and why I got it wrong.