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The Future of Brexit

What will happen to Brexit?

  • Full Brexit (Complete Independence from the EU)

    Votes: 2 16.7%
  • Half-Way (Join the EEA or Some Variation)

    Votes: 7 58.3%
  • Nothing Happens (The Government Never Pulls The Trigger)

    Votes: 3 25.0%

  • Total voters
    12

Carjosse

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This morning one of my favourite Youtubers uploaded a new video about Brexit:


I figured that this would make a fun poll. What do you think will happen to Brexit? Will they actually go ahead with what the Leave campaign wanted and go full Brexit, will they chicken out and half way with the EEA, or just stand by and never pull the trigger till everyone forgets it ever happened?

The video brings up some good points. It seems that none of the parties including UKIP were prepared nor even wanted a Leave victory. And the country's elite especially do not want a Brexit which may cause some problems, especially for the Tories. Then there is the fact that no prime minster wants to pull trigger because it would essentially mean they started the breakup of the United Kingdom and be seen as leading the UK into a time of uncertainty, which is not good for an economy and their image. It is political suicide for the prime minster and whatever party they belong to.

I am going to go with nothing is going to happen for the foreseeable future, no one wants to be responsible for it.
 
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Carjosse

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Why can't they negotiate trade agreements with the EU nations, without giving up sovereignty?
To me, it's like a kind of blackmail.

Do all that we say or no soup for you.

That is not how the EU works, if you want a trade deal with an EU member you make a trade deal with the EU. Part of making a deal with the EU is following their rules. They are the world's largest trading bloc, they are going to use their power.
 

DA60

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Yeah, I really like most of this guy's videos as well (learned a TON about the Vatican and the City of London from this guy in just a few minutes, for example).

I like this video as well.

As for Brexit?

Me? I dunno.

But if I were to guess, I would...I dunno.
 

Harry Guerrilla

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That is not how the EU works, if you want a trade deal with an EU member you make a trade deal with the EU. Part of making a deal with the EU is following their rules. They are the world's largest trading bloc, they are going to use their power.

I agree they're going to do it.
I just tend to think it's wrong on an individual level.

On a state level, it's realpolitik.

I hope they can both withdraw and maintain a good economy by working with other nations, less hostile to their independence.
 

Carjosse

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I agree they're going to do it.
I just tend to think it's wrong on an individual level.

On a state level, it's realpolitik.

I hope they can both withdraw and maintain a good economy by working with other nations, less hostile to their independence.

The UK does not have that choice it would be like the US saying they are no longer going to trade with Canada or Mexico. Then some states declared independence then they joined a trade agreement with Canada and Mexico. The UK is integrated with Europe no matter how much people in the UK disagree.
 

Harry Guerrilla

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The UK does not have that choice it would be like the US saying they are no longer going trade with Canada or Mexico. Then some states declared independence.

I don't necessarily think the US should be a single country.
Well I'm just not a huge fan of super nations/empire governments.
They tend to suffocate.
 

Carjosse

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I don't necessarily think the US should be a single country.
Well I'm just not a huge fan of super nations/empire governments.
They tend to suffocate.

Well too bad for you, that is not how the world works. You might not see the benefits but plenty of others do.
 

Harry Guerrilla

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Well too bad for you, that is not how the world works. You might not see the benefits but plenty of others do.

That's fine, but I see a future where the culture of smaller nations gets displaced for the interests of others.
It's like a slow ethnic cleansing, without the killing.
 

digsbe

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I don't necessarily think the US should be a single country.
Well I'm just not a huge fan of super nations/empire governments.
They tend to suffocate.

I think having a strong national country is a good thing, what I don't like is a strong federal government choking on individual states.
 

Quazimodo

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I think having a strong national country is a good thing, what I don't like is a strong federal government choking on individual states.

Welcome to the conservative movement.:2razz:
 

Carjosse

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That's fine, but I see a future where the culture of smaller nations gets displaced for the interests of others.
It's like a slow ethnic cleansing, without the killing.

That is what globalization does but there is not much you can do about it. The EU tries to support even the smallest nations in the union. It is why so many regional languages are recognized by the EU and it provides cultural funding. It also allows any member to veto pretty much anything. For example even little tiny Malta can veto a trade deal for the entire EU. Then there is the fact the EU is rather open to alternative arrangements like Switzerland and the EEA. There were many ways the UK could have gone about changing but they decided to do it the most insulting way possible. Before the referendum the EU and the UK were negotiating a treaty that would allow the UK to be a special case, a member kind of in between full membership and the EEA. On top of their already pretty special status in the EU.

Essentially the UK is behaving like a spoiled child whose parents did not get them exactly what they wanted and decided to leave making the biggest uproar and breaking as much stuff as possible on they way out instead of trying to find a real solution.
 

Harry Guerrilla

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That is what globalization does but there is not much you can do about it. The EU tries to support even the smallest nations in the union. It is why so many regional languages are recognized by the EU and it provides cultural funding. It also allows any member to veto pretty much anything. For example even little tiny Malta can veto a trade deal for the entire EU. Then there is the fact the EU is rather open to alternative arrangements like Switzerland and the EEA. There were many ways the UK could have gone about changing but they decided to do it the most insulting way possible. Before the referendum the EU and the UK were negotiating a treaty that would allow the UK to be a special case, a member kind of in between full membership and the EEA.

Insulting to whom?
I don't get it why it would be insulting.
"We tried it and we don't like it," is not inherently insulting.

Essentially the UK is behaving like a spoiled child whose parents did not get them exactly what they wanted and decided to leave making the biggest uproar and breaking as much stuff as possible on they way out instead of trying to find a real solution.

So democracy is wrong, when you don't like what they decide?
That's more or less what you're saying..
 

PeteEU

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Why can't they negotiate trade agreements with the EU nations, without giving up sovereignty?
To me, it's like a kind of blackmail.

Do all that we say or no soup for you.

Because the UK is a small island with no military or economic power to bully other countries to do its bidding.. this aint the 1700s.
 

Quazimodo

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Insulting to whom?
I don't get it why it would be insulting.
"We tried it and we don't like it," is not inherently insulting.



So democracy is wrong, when you don't like what they decide?
That's more or less what you're saying..

Right! How in the whole wide world will Brexit survive without the support of a bunch of tattooed, computer savvy, basement dwelling, welfare recipients here in the U.S.?
 

clownboy

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That is not how the EU works, if you want a trade deal with an EU member you make a trade deal with the EU. Part of making a deal with the EU is following their rules. They are the world's largest trading bloc, they are going to use their power.

Meh, too many of the EU nations would be enriched by making out of EU deals with the UK. At the very least, if the Brits hold to their guns, those nations will move the EU to allow. Most likely backdoor and loophole dealing will be rife. The EU will ignore these because calling them out will inspire more nations to leave.
 

PeteEU

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Things can change.
Not saying it will, but it can.

Eh? The UK has been in decline since the end of the reign of Queen Victoria. The only thing that remotely has stopped that decline was its membership of the EU and its access to a free and open market. The UK now wants to go back to the "good old days", but the problem here is that her legacy means that many of her former colonies hate her and she has lost almost all her industrial might and production, and hence her influence. She has nothing to basically give the world (relatively speaking to what she once was), which means she has to deal with other nations on a "you scratch my back and I will scratch yours" principle instead of the "do as I say" principle that the Brexit people believe they can do..... and that means if she wants to have access to the common market, then she has to give access to EU citizens.. the very thing that most people voted to stop.

It will all depend on how David Davis and Boris Johnson will be received around the world, and frankly Boris Johnson trying to get deals with other nations is not going to go well. For one, the UK will almost certainly be at the back of the que with any deal with the US.. Only hope they have is if Trump gets elected, but then it wont matter as the world would end within a year in a global nuclear war that would kill most people.

David Davis seems to be respected, and has said the goal is to be part of the common market.. that means some sort of EEA membership.. but that is going to take far longer than 2 years to negotiate.
 

Harry Guerrilla

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Eh? The UK has been in decline since the end of the reign of Queen Victoria. The only thing that remotely has stopped that decline was its membership of the EU and its access to a free and open market. The UK now wants to go back to the "good old days", but the problem here is that her legacy means that many of her former colonies hate her and she has lost almost all her industrial might and production, and hence her influence. She has nothing to basically give the world (relatively speaking to what she once was), which means she has to deal with other nations on a "you scratch my back and I will scratch yours" principle instead of the "do as I say" principle that the Brexit people believe they can do..... and that means if she wants to have access to the common market, then she has to give access to EU citizens.. the very thing that most people voted to stop.

It will all depend on how David Davis and Boris Johnson will be received around the world, and frankly Boris Johnson trying to get deals with other nations is not going to go well. For one, the UK will almost certainly be at the back of the que with any deal with the US.. Only hope they have is if Trump gets elected, but then it wont matter as the world would end within a year in a global nuclear war that would kill most people.

David Davis seems to be respected, and has said the goal is to be part of the common market.. that means some sort of EEA membership.. but that is going to take far longer than 2 years to negotiate.

The UK still has considerable power as a part of the world financial market resides there.

You can take off the tin foil hat with Trump too.
He may be stupid but not nuclear death stupid, few are.
 

Ikari

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I'm going to guess that they don't actually pull the trigger on an exit.
 

PeteEU

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The UK still has considerable power as a part of the world financial market resides there.

Yes and? Kinda irrelevant when trying to sell cars or other goods. Financial products are heavily regulated and not part of the "free world market" system. Not being in the EU, means that a lot of this financial power will move if the UK does not become part of the common market and some how negotiates a similar deal as they have now.
 

Harry Guerrilla

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Yes and? Kinda irrelevant when trying to sell cars or other goods. Financial products are heavily regulated and not part of the "free world market" system. Not being in the EU, means that a lot of this financial power will move if the UK does not become part of the common market and some how negotiates a similar deal as they have now.

All I can say is that I hope they work out trade deals, while surviving well.
I think they should have all the choice in the world to be an independent nation.
 
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