• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!
  • Welcome to our archives. No new posts are allowed here.

The four real reasons Iraq was invaded

If Opec says oil is to be paid for in euros, your gona need euros
regadless what the G8 do .The G 8 has no oil; to sell

Ok, I don't know why I'm bothering to do this, but I'm going to try to get you to see the folly of this remark. Why would OPEC want oil to be paid for in euros? They wouldn't. The better question is why does OPEC want oil to be paid for in $s? Consider:

> The monies received for oil has to be reinvested somewhere. The only market large enough and liquid enough to handle investments of that size is the market that is denominated in $s. It is true that the euro market has grown since its inception, but it still pales in comparison to the $ market. It is also true that when and where possible, investments are made in other denominations, including the euro, for the sake of diversity, but they are a relatively small portion of the total.

> OPEC countries are typically quite risk averse with their investments. They place a premium on safety of principal. The only market that is both large enough, liquid enough and has a sufficiently high credit rating is the US Treasury market.

> The $ is still the worldwide choice for a reserve currency. Like it or not, OPEC needs $s for its worldwide transactions because the $ is still -- and is likely to continue to be -- the single most important reserve currency in the world. Hence, it can be used for transactions worldwide. Not so with the euro. You get outside of the EU countries that have embraced the euro and you are at a commercial disadvantage if using the euro. That disadvantage is going to become less over time, but just now, its a disadvantage.
 
oldreliable67 said:
Ok, I don't know why I'm bothering to do this, but I'm going to try to get you to see the folly of this remark. Why would OPEC want oil to be paid for in euros? They wouldn't. The better question is why does OPEC want oil to be paid for in $s? Consider:

> The monies received for oil has to be reinvested somewhere. The only market large enough and liquid enough to handle investments of that size is the market that is denominated in $s. It is true that the euro market has grown since its inception, but it still pales in comparison to the $ market. It is also true that when and where possible, investments are made in other denominations, including the euro, for the sake of diversity, but they are a relatively small portion of the total.

> OPEC countries are typically quite risk averse with their investments. They place a premium on safety of principal. The only market that is both large enough, liquid enough and has a sufficiently high credit rating is the US Treasury market.

> The $ is still the worldwide choice for a reserve currency. Like it or not, OPEC needs $s for its worldwide transactions because the $ is still -- and is likely to continue to be -- the single most important reserve currency in the world. Hence, it can be used for transactions worldwide. Not so with the euro. You get outside of the EU countries that have embraced the euro and you are at a commercial disadvantage if using the euro. That disadvantage is going to become less over time, but just now, its a disadvantage.


US $ has to much Baggage 8 trillion$ and counting inflationary pressures to high
it is not stable any more
America borrowed 6 trillion beyond what it's advisor told them was the limit I would think he knows more about such matters or why would he have his job to flap his gums only?
 
Canuck said:
US $ has to much Baggage 8 trillion$ and counting inflationary pressures to high
it is not stable any more
America borrowed 6 trillion beyond what it's advisor told them was the limit I would think he knows more about such matters or why would he have his job to flap his gums only?

If gum flapping were a job you would be CEO........
 
teacher said:
If gum flapping were a job you would be CEO........
I dont need a job I hit the 6/49 and retired at 48

but when I did work I made 33$ an hour

All the gum flapping here is from you
and the other neo con artists
because there is nothing you can say that substanciates
the bush platform
the Iraq invasion silly
economy moronic
he has gutted america and is an enemy to America and Americans
the real Americans
 
Canuck said:
I dont need a job I hit the 6/49 and retired at 48

but when I did work I made 33$ an hour

All the gum flapping here is from you
and the other neo con artists
because there is nothing you can say that substanciates
the bush platform
the Iraq invasion silly
economy moronic
he has gutted america and is an enemy to America and Americans
the real Americans

33$ an hour? Pretty good for a Moose impregnator. Is mikeey your kid?

I've plenty of substantiating posts about the Bush platform and Iraq. Go read them and get back to me. At least they make sense. I'd tell you to go to the basement and check some smack, but then you don't go there. Or you only do right after you say you don't. Or an impostor posted on the TT thread using your name. Or.....god, what the hell is your deal anyway?
 
Canuck said:
how will all that matter to a single american when the oil around the would is sold in euros and not dollars
think about that
If your a fool you may go
if you see the implications we can talk


Well if you have OUNCE OUNCE of credibility that we are there solely for oil, then ill answer, but in the meantime while you try oh so hard to prove your case on factual information, ill be waiting here and laughing at your meaningless rhetoric!
 
Canuck,

I posted:

"And if you want to talk about the US debt: the single best measure of US debt, IMO -- and the measure that I see most often quoted by analysts, is the amount of annual surplus or deficit relative to annual GDP. In other words, a measure of our capacity to service our debt, not the absolute size of the debt. As you can see from the chart posted earlier, the current percentage is well within the zones of historical experience (figures for 2005 and beyond are, of course, estimates). "

To which you replied:

Rubbish
Alan Greenspan the man in charge of watching the us economy told the govt, no more borrowing 6 yrs ago when debt was at 2 trillion

Since you place such great store in Alan Greenspan's opinion, here is what he had to say about the approach that you labeled as rubbish:

In general, fiscal systems are presumed stable if the ratio of debt in the hands of the public to nominal GDP (a proxy for the revenue base) is itself stable. A rapidly rising ratio of debt to GDP, for example, implies an ever-increasing and possibly accelerating ratio of interest payments to the revenue base. Conversely, once debt has fallen to zero, budget surpluses generally require the accumulation of private assets, an undesirable policy in the judgment of many.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/hh/2003/february/testimony.htm

Seems that you are touting and disagreeing with Alan Greenspan all at the same time.
 
Canuck said:
I dont need a job I hit the 6/49 and retired at 48

but when I did work I made 33$ an hour

All the gum flapping here is from you
and the other neo con artists
because there is nothing you can say that substanciates
the bush platform
the Iraq invasion silly
economy moronic
he has gutted america and is an enemy to America and Americans
the real Americans

Anyone who touts their financial prowess and success just forfeited any pretense at honest debate. You're not worth the powder to blow you up. You're full of it. Go play in the street.
 
AK_Conservative said:
Well if you have OUNCE OUNCE of credibility that we are there solely for oil, then ill answer, but in the meantime while you try oh so hard to prove your case on factual information, ill be waiting here and laughing at your meaningless rhetoric!


it doesnt take a rocket sientist you know you have to use common sense once in awhile

America has 5% of the world's population and uses 25% of the world's oil
China is now quickly heading to buy as much as America is and will soon be needing more than America
you do need to get your future oil reserve under lock and key

and the IRAN PETRO EURO scares the hell out of everyone
 
Billo_Really said:
Robin is a "he", not a "she".
ROBIN
sorry about thinking you were a girl I know a girl named ROBIN
and I assunmed as much in your case
 
oldreliable67 said:
No, not everyone. Just you.
you will nash your teeth with the rest of us when and if it comes to pass

and you will bring a hard rain down on America trying to stop it at all costs
 
you will nash your teeth with the rest of us when and if it comes to pass

Oh, good. Then I don't have to worry about my teeth. You said 'if' it comes to pass. Thats an improvement.
 
oldreliable67 said:
Oh, good. Then I don't have to worry about my teeth. You said 'if' it comes to pass. Thats an improvement.


the only way it is not coming to pass is with iran being pushed into the dark ages

short of that america will be pushed into the dark ages
 
Canuck said:
it doesnt take a rocket sientist you know you have to use common sense once in awhile

America has 5% of the world's population and uses 25% of the world's oil
China is now quickly heading to buy as much as America is and will soon be needing more than America
you do need to get your future oil reserve under lock and key

and the IRAN PETRO EURO scares the hell out of everyone

See, thats where you have no proof. Your making accusations based off no knowledge on comparative politics!
 
Re: The real reason of invasions

arussian said:
A funny movie with sad content about the MAIN reason of any future invasion.

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2005/10/13.html#a5351

http://movies.crooksandliars.com/OnTheStreetsOfAmerica3.wmv

Americans are readily agree with invasion to a country they have never heard about!

lloll
~

http://www.rense.com/general67/stock.htm

Cheney's Halliburton
Stock Rose 3,281%
Executive Intelligence Review
10-12-5

(EIRNS) -- Halliburton stock options held by Dick Cheney rose 3,281% since October, 2004,according to figures compiled by Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ), reports rawstory website today.

The options were worth $241,498, now they are worth $8 million.

In a Sept. 15 statement, as Halliburton was getting no-bid contracts for repairs following Hurricane Katrina, Lautenberg said that Cheney should divest himself of these Halliburton holdings.

"Halliburton has already raked in more thant $10 billion from the Bush-Cheney administration for work in Iraq, and now they are being awarded some of the first Katrina contracts. It is unseemly for the Vice President to continue to benefit from this company at the same time his Administration funnels billions of dollars to
 
Karen Kwiatkowski's theory:

The neoconservatives pride themselves on having a global vision, a long-term strategic perspective. And there were three reasons why they felt the U.S. needed to topple Saddam, put in a friendly government and occupy Iraq.

One of those reasons is that sanctions and containment were working and everybody pretty much knew it. Many companies around the world were preparing to do business with Iraq in anticipation of a lifting of sanctions. But the U.S. and the U.K. had been bombing northern and southern Iraq since 1991. So it was very unlikely that we would be in any kind of position to gain significant contracts in any post-sanctions Iraq. And those sanctions were going to be lifted soon, Saddam would still be in place, and we would get no financial benefit.

The second reason has to do with our military-basing posture in the region. We had been very dissatisfied with our relations with Saudi Arabia, particularly the restrictions on our basing. And also there was dissatisfaction from the people of Saudi Arabia. So we were looking for alternate strategic locations beyond Kuwait, beyond Qatar, to secure something we had been searching for since the days of Carter — to secure the energy lines of communication in the region. Bases in Iraq, then, were very important — that is, if you hold that is America’s role in the world. Saddam Hussein was not about to invite us in.

The last reason is the conversion, the switch Saddam Hussein made in the Food for Oil program, from the dollar to the euro. He did this, by the way, long before 9/11, in November 2000 — selling his oil for euros. The oil sales permitted in that program aren’t very much. But when the sanctions would be lifted, the sales from the country with the second largest oil reserves on the planet would have been moving to the euro.

The U.S. dollar is in a sensitive period because we are a debtor nation now. Our currency is still popular, but it’s not backed up like it used to be. If oil, a very solid commodity, is traded on the euro, that could cause massive, almost glacial, shifts in confidence in trading on the dollar. So one of the first executive orders that Bush signed in May [2003] switched trading on Iraq’s oil back to the dollar.
 
AK_Conservative said:
See, thats where you have no proof. Your making accusations based off no knowledge on comparative politics!

America has 5% of the world's population but consumes 25% of the oil produced


Wars are fought for profits

Cheney's Halliburton
Stock Rose 3,281%
Executive Intelligence Review
10-12-5

(EIRNS) -- Halliburton stock options held by Dick Cheney rose 3,281% since October, 2004,according to figures compiled by Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ), reports rawstory website today.

The options were worth $241,498, now they are worth $8 million.

In a Sept. 15 statement, as Halliburton was getting no-bid contracts for repairs following Hurricane Katrina, Lautenberg said that Cheney should divest himself of these Halliburton holdings.

"Halliburton has already raked in more thant $10 billion from the Bush-Cheney administration for work in Iraq, and now they are being awarded some of the first Katrina contracts. It is unseemly for the Vice President to continue to benefit from this company at the same time his Administration funnels billions of dollars to it.

Bush & Cheney through Haliburton have scamed the American tax payer
contrary to AMerica's belief that their country has god on it's side and is the righteous bringer of democracy
it has never been so it has always been about profiteering
all your dead soldiers of past and present wars payed their lives so fat cats and war mongers got their fill

to believe otherwise is to admit you dont know and are still spell bound by their grasp over you
the propaganda movies ( john wayne Errol flynn etc..)
have you hypnotised they will have you believe your pilots died helping china fight the japanese prior to america's entree to ww2
when they died trying to provoke an attack on america by the Japanese
to enter ww2
in the end the back door tactic worked
 
Last edited:
teacher said:
Congrats bozo, I've brought out the smack cannon on you. In a couple differant places, see if you can find them.

1.teacher is to be left lowercase, I don't want to appear pampas.
2.He.
3.Our currency is our economic might. Our military presence. Our technological leadership. Our universities the whole world attends. Our hospitals the whole world sends it sick to. Our land that so many try to immigrate to. Our mear presence on the globe that helps deter countries from invading weaker nations. Our vast and fertile food producing land. And so much more. That you think a green piece of paper makes the difference shows how little you understand about this, the greatest, most benevolent, civilized country the world has ever seen.

Number 3 is quite possibly the most moronic statement i have read in my life. If your currency is so mighty then why is being held up by Asian economies buying the dollar( its common knowledge to any economist, from the Chicago School to the Navarese that the only reason the dollar has not deflated more is cause the Asian markets keep buying dollars to prevent their economies from crashing, in other words is pretty much the Asians the ones maintaining your beloved economy.) Your military presence is your downfall, every empire from Rome to Spain started their demise after overextending their resources( thats a hint). Techonology which is done by foreginers, universities which are attended by foreigners who in turn go back to work for their countries. At least the immigration part has some truth, but then again its pretty much only mexicans immigrating. The mere presence of the US causing a deterrent for war, please dont make me laugh. When was the last time that the US stopped anything in Africa, Caucus, Indonesia or most of Asia? Let me help you out. Get familiar with something called the world systems theory, there are four phases for every empire which have been fairly consistent through the centuries, can you guess where the United States is at right now? I will make it even easier why dont you read Lewis, or maybe Huntington, perhaps Chomsky or even Friedman. They are well respected american political scientists and they all agree on one thing, can you guess what it is?
 
robin said:
Good posts Canuck.
To the rest of you I say... I'm more interested in facts & the truth, than indulging in bun fights.

A post by Ampickle under economics on the Asia times forum;

The American Dollar, R. I. P.
Saudi Arabia, immediately after the death of King Fahd, announced that it was going to repatriate $360 billion invested overseas in the last 18 months. Of course, the majority of this was invested in the United States, and Saudi Arabia can't possibly absorb all that money, so this is a polite way of saying that they will invest their oil revenues in countries other than the United States. Thus quietly ends the scheme that Saudi oil surpluses would be invested in the United States. This has worked exceptionally well for the Americans, and the thanks the Saudis got for it was to be constantly blamed for financing terrorism, financing which started at the insistence of the United States! The replacement of Prince Bandar - a man perceived as very close to American interests, particularly the Bush crime family itself - as Saudi ambassador to the United States almost certainly also signals that the Saudis are tired of propping up the American economy and receiving only aggravation in return. The loss of the very close friendship of the Saudis is another gift the Americans have received from the Zionists in the Bush Administration. Sometimes it helps to know who your real friends are.

The American Dollar, R. I. P.
Everybody has started to pick on the poor Americans:

South Korea, which holds the fourth largest currency reserves in the world, traditionally held in American debt instruments, announced in the spring that it was going to diversify into other currencies.
http://money.cnn.com/2005/02/22/markets/bondcenter/bonds/

Russia now calculates the value of the ruble in terms of a basket including the American Dollar and the Euro, with the Euro weighting in the basket gradually increasing. It is also considering denominating the value of its oil in Euros rather than Dollars.
http://english.pravda.ru/main/18/88/351/14927_euro.html

China has announced that the value of its currency will be determined by a basket of currencies, instead of being fixed against the American Dollar. The relative weightings of currencies in the basket is a secret, which will allow the Chinese to quietly divest themselves of American holdings without triggering a panic that would suddenly reduce the value of these holdings. The American political opposition of the Chinese acquisition of Unocal is going to turn out to be a very dumb move.
http://www2.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-08/11/content_467988.htm

With the new Chinese approach to valuing its currency, other Asian countries are likely to begin valuing their currencies against the Chinese currency, rather than against the increasingly pressured American dollar.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/DD4E54C1-FF0E-4DA7-B5C3-4363A933EC73.htm

The Iranian oil bourse, a new international market for oil in which the oil will be priced in Euros rather than Dollars, is slated to open next spring.
http://usa.mediamonitors.net/content/view/full/17450


http://xymphora.blogspot.com/2005/08/american-dollar-r-i-p.html

Petrodollar Warfare: Dollars, Euros and the Upcoming Iranian Oil Bourse by William R. Clark

(Friday August 05 2005) who is linked by Xymphora (on the forthcoming Iranian oil bourse)Clark was of course the originator (publicly) of the belief that the invasion of Iraq was launched essentially to snuff out the potential for crude oil sales in Euros which Saddam Hussein introduced just about the time Dubya was being sworn in after having being elected by the Supremes…. To maintain dollar hegemony, the US Trade deficit and the lifestyle of the West.

www.counterpunch.org/teague02262003.html



Central banks seek to calm dollar fears
By Anna Fifield and Song Jung-a in Seoul, David Pilling in Tokyo and Kathrin Hille in Taipei Financial Times Published: February 23 2005

It is a popular fallacy that the international FOREX market is as “free” as any market possibly could be. This article made clear that it was the heads of the major central bankers who basically operate a cartel in collusion with the Fed.

No Longer the “Lone” Superpower: Coming to Terms with China
By Chalmers Johnson March 2005
http://www.sandersresearch.com/Sanders/NewsManager/ShowNewsGen.aspx?NewsID=877

http://www.jpri.org/publications/workingpapers/wp105.html


Way to go! Good job to all of those who subscribe to the Pat Robertson School of Diplomacy...
Chavez: Venezuela Moves Reserves to Europe

All Associated Press NewsCARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - Venezuela has moved its central bank foreign reserves out of U.S. banks, liquidated its investments in U.S. Treasury securities and placed the funds in Europe, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Friday.

"We've had to move the international reserves from U.S. banks because of the threats," from the U.S., Chavez said during televised remarks from a South American summit in Brazil.

Recent investing newsNew Bans Show China's Concerns About Tech Alaska Airlines Lands World's Largest King Salmon Reports: Boots, Alliance UniChem in Talks Four Seasons Resort Bali at Jimbaran Bay Not Affected by Bombing Cognigen Networks Announces Resignation of President & CEO
"The reserves we had (invested) in U.S. Treasury bonds, we've sold them and we moved them to Europe and other countries," he said.

Chavez, a sharp critic of what he calls "imperialist" U.S.-style capitalism, has often criticized foreign banks for the power they wield in international financial markets at the expense of poorer countries.

Chavez again proposed the creation of a South American central bank that would hold the foreign exchange reserves of all the central banks in the region.

"I'm ready right now with the Venezuelan central bank ... to move $5 billion (euro4.15 billion) (of Venezuelan reserves), to a South American bank," Chavez said.

Central bank officials could not be immediately reached for more details.

Chavez has also argued against central bank autonomy, saying excess foreign reserves should be spent on economic development projects.

Under his presidency, Venezuela's mostly pro-Chavez Congress changed central bank laws earlier this year so the government could tap reserves for spending, despite criticism that it would lead to devaluation of the local currency and higher inflation.

Every year the central bank must now compute an "optimum" amount of reserves and hand over the rest to a newly created national development fund.

Money held in the fund will be used for overseas purchases and to pay off outstanding debt.

Foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank stood at $30.434 billion (euro25.27 billion) as of Sept. 28, according to central bank data.

the shift to EURO from greenback is taking shape no it wont be overnight but the shift is there

great story very informative nice job on it ROBIN

We can assume that Green span in his slip to frances prime minister about the deficit being out of control will only add to the speed of which this takes place
Personaly I think It is high time that AMerica abandons the debt ridden $ and with Canada and Mexico come out with a new one

let the currency go to euros and then flip the currency when it is at its lowest point which would minimize foreign debt quite a bit
I think the war in IRAQ has anger many nations and this is a way they retaliate
against the USA (chavez announced that America was a terrorist in IRAQ and promtly pulled support for US $)

If bush isnt kicked out soon I fear that it may lead to more defections
*********************************************************
Eryx82
your absolutely right about the asians propping the $
japan carries 750 billion in us treasuries alone china hold roughly 300 billion
if they called that debt in coupled to $ prominence lost and the euro gaining prominence
well every body would be in hot water in NorthAMErica ,japan,china
 
Last edited:
Reason for the military overthrow of Iraq's rogue government was and is to INTIMIDATE Arab nations in order to keep them in line with American and Jewish interests. Think we won't do it to any Arab country which threatens to mess up the game plan? You bet we will. Now they know it too.
 
Originally posted by Robin:
Karen Kwiatkowski's theory:

The neoconservatives pride themselves on having a global vision, a long-term strategic perspective. And there were three reasons why they felt the U.S. needed to topple Saddam, put in a friendly government and occupy Iraq.

One of those reasons is that sanctions and containment were working and everybody pretty much knew it. Many companies around the world were preparing to do business with Iraq in anticipation of a lifting of sanctions. But the U.S. and the U.K. had been bombing northern and southern Iraq since 1991. So it was very unlikely that we would be in any kind of position to gain significant contracts in any post-sanctions Iraq. And those sanctions were going to be lifted soon, Saddam would still be in place, and we would get no financial benefit.

The second reason has to do with our military-basing posture in the region. We had been very dissatisfied with our relations with Saudi Arabia, particularly the restrictions on our basing. And also there was dissatisfaction from the people of Saudi Arabia. So we were looking for alternate strategic locations beyond Kuwait, beyond Qatar, to secure something we had been searching for since the days of Carter — to secure the energy lines of communication in the region. Bases in Iraq, then, were very important — that is, if you hold that is America’s role in the world. Saddam Hussein was not about to invite us in.

The last reason is the conversion, the switch Saddam Hussein made in the Food for Oil program, from the dollar to the euro. He did this, by the way, long before 9/11, in November 2000 — selling his oil for euros. The oil sales permitted in that program aren’t very much. But when the sanctions would be lifted, the sales from the country with the second largest oil reserves on the planet would have been moving to the euro.

The U.S. dollar is in a sensitive period because we are a debtor nation now. Our currency is still popular, but it’s not backed up like it used to be. If oil, a very solid commodity, is traded on the euro, that could cause massive, almost glacial, shifts in confidence in trading on the dollar. So one of the first executive orders that Bush signed in May [2003] switched trading on Iraq’s oil back to the dollar.
Robin, you win db's first ever, "Nobillo Peace Prize!" This post rocks.
 
Missouri Mule said:
All of this bash America and its currency is silly. We have a lot of trade debt and if any trading partner wants to withdraw from our market they can certainly do so. If the ME oil producers don't want our dollars, that will certainly hasten if not eliminate our reliance on the M.E. for energy production. It might even spur our lazy Congress to get off their duffs and do something about increasing our own energy production. In point of fact, the U.S. has some of the largest natural gas and coal reserves in the entire world.

Gee, it would be horrible if we couldn't buy those cheap Chinese goods, wouldn't it? What it would mean would be the collapse of the Chinese economy and the reemployment of American workers right here in the U.S.

I kinda like the idea of a collapsing dollar myself.
M&M you made a couple good points but you missed the point also

1) I and I am sure Robin as well do not hate America and are not trying to bash AMERICA.I prefer to have the truth on the table whats the use debating lies not much
2) if you really knew the impact of what Robin has pointed out you would appreciate that it is not as easy to shrug off as you suggest
The American debt isn't under written by boullion GOLD
it is under written solely on the fact that it is used around the world
no other reason.America has pile sky high debt because of this we all know America doesn't have 10 trillion$ in gold reserves
3) when its time to pay for oil and they want Euros YOU can add 10-15$ per barrel
4) America has to borrow money from other countries to service the DEBT
again if that were in Euros add more to the debt
5) the solution IMHO is as you suggested let the $ go down when it hits a low compared to the EURO then flip The $ into a new north American currency which would offset alot of the debt.
6) we are heading into hardtimes either way we look at it.
here is other indications what other countries are doing in addition to ROBIN'S
already exstensive research.

Signals of the End of the Dollar Standard
October 5, 2005
Rob Lee is an economist who has been involved in investment markets for 30 years, the last few in nominal retirement.

I am an economist who worked for 25 years in large investment companies in South Africa. I “retired” to the UK a few years ago. For most of my career I lobbied for policies such as money supply targets and later inflation targets that were (implicitly) intended to substitute the role of gold as an independent anchor for the monetary system. I was never an advocate of any form of gold standard, unlike the current Fed Chairman, now ironically testing the fiat money system to destruction.

However, in recent years the scales have fallen from my eyes. As Voltaire said in 1729 “paper money eventually goes down to its intrinsic value – zero.” Every fiat paper currency before or since has confirmed to this prediction. A fiat paper currency that is also the global reserve currency becomes this problem writ large. A US Treasury official of old - Sam Cross - put it this way: “if you postulate a system that depends on one country always following the right policies, you will find that sooner or later no such country exists. The system is eventually going to break down”. In my view the Dollar Standard system is irretrievably breaking down, as signaled by four recent developments described below:

1. China has ended its currency peg to the dollar. The new exchange rate system for the Yuan is admittedly not yet a dramatic break from the dollar fixed peg . That is not the Chinese way. It is nevertheless hugely symbolic. It serves notice that China will be increasingly reluctant to accumulate dollars they know will depreciate in value over time. Chinese economic spokesmen have made no secret in public of their alarm at US profligacy - what is said behind closed doors?

China is clearly intent on exchanging its paper assets (predominantly dollars) for real assets, notably commodities in general and energy products in particular. On gold the strategy focuses on encouraging private citizens to own gold- deregulation of the gold market has been rapid by Chinese standards. [Ironically it may now be easier for citizens of China to invest directly in gold than it is in many western democracies].

China is likely to prefer to remove dollar support only gradually. Bear in mind though that most of the smaller economies in Asia tend to follow China - Malaysia announced a similar change to its exchange rate system very soon after the Chinese. Other countries from outside the region - notably Russia and Saudi Arabia - have indicated an intention to downgrade the dollar in their currency arrangements. Iran is attempting to create an oil trading exchange that does not transact in dollars. These are ominous straws in the wind for a currency so dependent on foreign capital.

2. Deflation in Japan is coming to an end. Japan is the biggest foreign holder of US dollars. For example, Japan held $680bn in US Treasury Securities at the end of June - nearly 34% of total foreign holdings. This compares with $291bn held by China (including Hong Kong). Japan will therefore play a critical part in any changes to the world's currency system.

US-Japan relations are far closer than those between the US and China. Japan also has literally more to lose from the demise of the dollar than China. Nevertheless the same logic that impels China's move away from US paper applies to Japan. As long as deflation remained the key economic concern in Japan supporting the dollar was the paramount objective of its exchange rate policy. However, there are clear signs of a self-sustaining recovery of domestic employment, investment, and consumption in Japan. The recent election victory of PM Koizumi should reinforce reform and recovery. These forces are simultaneously bringing an end to both the deflationary process and to dependence on exports for growth. The imperative to support the dollar will erode and interest rates in Japan will begin to normalize. Another straw in the wind - Japan did not increase its holdings of US Treasuries in the first half of 2005.

3. The US in effect now has to borrow abroad in order to service all its foreign debt. The remarkable down spiral in the US foreign financial position took another crucial but little noticed twist recently. In the second quarter of 2005 the US paid out more in income to foreigners on their US assets than it received in income on its foreign assets. Technically net foreign investment income went negative. No comfort should be taken from the fact the second quarter investment income deficit was a mere $0.5bn. The income deficit will deteriorate rapidly in coming years. The US has net foreign debt (foreign liabilities minus foreign assets) of more than $ 2.5 trillion, and this debt will grow rapidly as the US continues to rack up huge current account deficits (now roughly $800bn annually). The income deficit on this debt has only just gone negative because the US receives a rate of return on its foreign assets roughly double that of overseas investors in the US - about 7% versus 3.4% between 2002 and 2004.

This differential return reflects the fact that Americans have invested largely in riskier assets abroad while foreigners have opted more for Treasury securities. A world economic downturn (likely in my view) would reduce returns on US overseas assets, while rising US interest rates will raise the return to foreigners. The longer term dynamics of this process are alarming. Within a short period of years the US will be borrowing hundreds of billions merely to service existing debt. Economists call this the “debt trap” - and the US economy is heading inexorably into it Can the US dollar sustain its position as the world reserve currency in the face of these fundamentals? As the saying goes, you only have to ask the question to know the answer.

4. The gold price is breaking out in all key currencies. Not all the world's investors (or central bankers!) are blind to the scary developments sketched above. Gold in dollars has definitively been in a bull market for some time, but in recent weeks gold has decisively broken out all key currencies including the Euro, Yen, Swiss Franc and Sterling. Markets are recognizing that the failure of the Dollar Standard is one not only of US economic management but one inherent in the fiat money system itself. In the long term they may demand gold's return as an anchor to the global monetary system.
http://www.prudentbear.com/bearschat...snsa=A#M322713
The flight from paper assets (and especially dollars) towards hard assets is now underway in earnest. There is still time - this is a multi-year trend - for investors to switch from devaluing dollars to rising gold. Those ahead of the herd are moving but the herd itself is yet to stir

you can see that it is happening all over
And with REP RON paul coming out just recently and calling bush delusional for his plans to attack china,iran,syria,north korea
we can see why he would be this looney
 
Last edited:
Back
Top Bottom