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The Enviroment is Fine

hazlnut

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I love GC. I'm his biggest fan.

But the Pakistan floods and Russian fires... Not funny.

But like Al Sleet said: The weather... will continue to change on and off for a long, long time...
 

Deuce

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He's right. It's not about saving the planet, it's about saving OUR OWN ASSES. How much of Russia's grain crop are they losing this year, again?
 

iangb

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The planet won't care if humanity makes living on it a little bit trickier. It'll still be there, long after we're gone. On the other hand, humanity probably would care if life suddenly got all cold/hot/wet/dry extreme.

Is see your George Carlin, and I raise you David Mitchell.
 

Deuce

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The planet won't care if humanity makes living on it a little bit trickier. It'll still be there, long after we're gone. On the other hand, humanity probably would care if life suddenly got all cold/hot/wet/dry extreme.A

Is see your George Carlin, and I raise you David Mitchell.
A good quote there about how great it would be if climate change turned out to be false or not our fault. Skeptics (hilariously) like to use the confirmation bias/want it to be true argument, but for a guy like me that doesn't make any sense. Nobody wants this to be true. It would be awesome if I could crank the AC down to 40 degrees and leave it there for all eternity. It would be awesome if we could spit out all the CO2 we wanted and not effect things in the slightest. Man oh man would it be great if the oceans were actually just fine and glaciers weren't melting. Really, you think I want this to be true? I try to explain this to skeptics, and the only counter-argument they can offer is the standard conspiracy theory about liberals wanting government to do everything.

Yeah, because what I really want is to pay more money for gasoline for no particular reason and for the government to tell me what to do just because. Do you people even listen to yourselves?
 

American

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A good quote there about how great it would be if climate change turned out to be false or not our fault. Skeptics (hilariously) like to use the confirmation bias/want it to be true argument, but for a guy like me that doesn't make any sense. Nobody wants this to be true. It would be awesome if I could crank the AC down to 40 degrees and leave it there for all eternity. It would be awesome if we could spit out all the CO2 we wanted and not effect things in the slightest. Man oh man would it be great if the oceans were actually just fine and glaciers weren't melting. Really, you think I want this to be true? I try to explain this to skeptics, and the only counter-argument they can offer is the standard conspiracy theory about liberals wanting government to do everything.

Yeah, because what I really want is to pay more money for gasoline for no particular reason and for the government to tell me what to do just because. Do you people even listen to yourselves?
The environazis don't care if it's true or not, they only care about the power they can attain if people think it's true.
 

iangb

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The environazis don't care if it's true or not, they only care about the power they can attain if people think it's true.
Well, you've certainly proved him right. Anything else to add?
 

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The environment goes through cycles. As recently as the 1300's until the 1900's there was a Medievil Warm Period followed by a Little Ice Age. Temperatures rise and fall for reasons only explained by the Chaos Theory. During that time, temps rose dramatically and then fell even more dramatically.



The issue now is how dramatic will these changes be and how much are caused by mankind.

If temps are rising now, it could be nothing more than a balancing of how cold it was for nearly 700 years.

 
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Deuce

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The environment goes through cycles. As recently as the 1300's until the 1900's there was a Medievil Warm Period followed by a Little Ice Age. Temperatures rise and fall for reasons only explained by the Chaos Theory. During that time, temps rose dramatically and then fell even more dramatically.



The issue now is how dramatic will these changes be and how much are caused by mankind.

If temps are rising now, it could be nothing more than a balancing of how cold it was for nearly 700 years.

Again with the "temperature can change naturally therefore temperature cannot change from man's influence!" nonsense. Such faulty logic, it's always hilarious.

Or perhaps you're the sort to see a witness a drunk driver crash his car and conclude that all crashes are caused by drunk drivers?

Did you happen to notice how the last little bit of that chart had a much sharper change than the rest? A speed of change seen only extremely rarely in our planet's history.
 
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cpwill

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A good quote there about how great it would be if climate change turned out to be false or not our fault. Skeptics (hilariously) like to use the confirmation bias/want it to be true argument, but for a guy like me that doesn't make any sense. Nobody wants this to be true.
what? an unverifiable thesis about a threat way down in the future that demands that the populace turns over near-complete power to me and my compatriots now?

who could possibly be in favor of that?


Global Warming is just the latest of these theories. before that it was deforestation was going to choke us all to death, before that it was overpopulation was going to wipe out 1/3 of humanity by 1990, before that it was global cooling, before that it was racial 'weakening' of the nation, etc.etc. etc. the problem is near immaterial - the science always seems to depend upon shaky assumptions, and the Necessary Solution That We Must Implement Now Because The Time For Discussion Is Over And We All Know What We Have To Do always seems to involve dramatically increasing the ability of self-anointed experts to control our lives as they see fit.
 
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Bodhisattva

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Again with the "temperature can change naturally therefore temperature cannot change from man's influence!" nonsense. Such faulty logic, it's always hilarious.
I love playing with the arrogant wannabe intellectual superiors. :)

Explain how my benign comment in any way relates to a logical explaination of this matter, if you can. I obviously said nothing about man's influence nor did I indicate that man is not contributing to the issue, so by all means, give it your best and display your intellectual flatulence.

Or perhaps you're the sort to see a witness a drunk driver crash his car and conclude that all crashes are caused by drunk drivers?
Red Herring.

For one chastising others about lacking logic, you certainly showed your capabilities rather quickly... now that, is hilarious! ;)

Did you happen to notice how the last little bit of that chart had a much sharper change than the rest? A speed of change seen only extremely rarely in our planet's history.
Yes I did. Would you like to focus on that instead of displaying your inability to maintain a reasonable, mature or coherent thought?
 

Deuce

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I love playing with the arrogant wannabe intellectual superiors. :)

Explain how my benign comment in any way relates to a logical explaination of this matter, if you can. I obviously said nothing about man's influence nor did I indicate that man is not contributing to the issue, so by all means, give it your best and display your intellectual flatulence.



Red Herring.

For one chastising others about lacking logic, you certainly showed your capabilities rather quickly... now that, is hilarious! ;)



Yes I did. Would you like to focus on that instead of displaying your inability to maintain a reasonable, mature or coherent thought?
I guess I mistook you for another one of the head-in-sand types. My apologies. There's a lot of them around here.
So, do you have an argument to make or are you just making yourself feel superior?
 

Bodhisattva

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I guess I mistook you for another one of the head-in-sand types. My apologies. There's a lot of them around here.
So, do you have an argument to make or are you just making yourself feel superior?
Now that we are both on the same level again... reasonable and mature, I do have an argument.
Firstly though, my apologies as well for slapping the **** out of you there. Needed to be done. :)
Seriously though, I was just playing the game that I saw being played, all good.

My thought is that the two are combined. We are in a naturally occuring warming period.
Various climatologists and scientists, some that I know as well as others that I have read
discuss this warming period that coincides with a 50 year period of less rain. Not drought
but certainly much less rain. I certainly accept that humanity is adding to the situation
that we are seeing. Rising levels of carbon are obviously paralleling human achievement
and time periods such as the Industrial Revolution to today. That is it for a start, what
do you think?
 

Deuce

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Now that we are both on the same level again... reasonable and mature, I do have an argument.
Firstly though, my apologies as well for slapping the **** out of you there. Needed to be done. :)
Seriously though, I was just playing the game that I saw being played, all good.

My thought is that the two are combined. We are in a naturally occuring warming period.
Various climatologists and scientists, some that I know as well as others that I have read
discuss this warming period that coincides with a 50 year period of less rain. Not drought
but certainly much less rain. I certainly accept that humanity is adding to the situation
that we are seeing. Rising levels of carbon are obviously paralleling human achievement
and time periods such as the Industrial Revolution to today. That is it for a start, what
do you think?
I think people who believe this is a natural warming cycle should try, for once, to tell me what mechanism is causing that natural warming. It's not like the earth gets warmer just because. Something needs to drive it. I ask this question a lot, and there's only two answers I ever seem to get:

"What mechanism is driving this natural change in temperature you speak of?"
1) It's natural. (sigh)
2) The sun. (provably incorrect)

You mention rain. Do you have anything to support this "less rain" we're supposedly getting, and do you have anything that would explain how that might cause an increase in temperature?
 

Bodhisattva

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I think people who believe this is a natural warming cycle should try, for once, to tell me what mechanism is causing that natural warming. It's not like the earth gets warmer just because. Something needs to drive it. I ask this question a lot, and there's only two answers I ever seem to get:

"What mechanism is driving this natural change in temperature you speak of?"
1) It's natural. (sigh)
2) The sun. (provably incorrect)

You mention rain. Do you have anything to support this "less rain" we're supposedly getting, and do you have anything that would explain how that might cause an increase in temperature?
What is wrong with the "it's natural" view... it can well be natural now as it has been in the past, as I already pointed out. The Earth goes through ice ages and also, warming ages, they just aren't as severe.

I mention less rain because that is what I was told by a scientist guy. I never asked my dad, also a scientist (physicist) about what he thought because the idea that it is a combination of nature and man is anything but *sigh* boring or lacking intelligence and has not even been close to getting debunked. I am not sure what you want. I am not going to do your research for you, (not being offensive) if you want to debate a specific thing that you don't like or that you think is lacking in my reasoning, point it out. The one thing I don't do is make an observation, get challenged to back it up and then do so without the other (you) showing why I need to back it up with evidence of your own. Seems fair, right?
 

Deuce

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What is wrong with the "it's natural" view... it can well be natural now as it has been in the past, as I already pointed out. The Earth goes through ice ages and also, warming ages, they just aren't as severe.

I mention less rain because that is what I was told by a scientist guy. I never asked my dad, also a scientist (physicist) about what he thought because the idea that it is a combination of nature and man is anything but *sigh* boring or lacking intelligence and has not even been close to getting debunked. I am not sure what you want. I am not going to do your research for you, (not being offensive) if you want to debate a specific thing that you don't like or that you think is lacking in my reasoning, point it out. The one thing I don't do is make an observation, get challenged to back it up and then do so without the other (you) showing why I need to back it up with evidence of your own. Seems fair, right?
See the thread in my signature for evidence that CO2 is a cause of warming. It's not comprehensive, but it's a start. The other big factors in temperature changes simply don't change measurably in this short a time period. (continental configuration and orbital mechanics are on way, way longer time scales)
You're doing what every skeptic does. "It's natural!" I thought I was quite clear on this:

"It's natural" is not any better an answer than "It's magic" or "God did it." Ok, so the earth changes temperatures naturally. Why? How?
 

Scarecrow Akhbar

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I think people who believe this is a natural warming cycle should try, for once, to tell me what mechanism is causing that natural warming.
Given that the cuurent warming trend started before the Industrial Revolution, it's your task to prove that man's influence is measurable.

Given that the Eemian Interstadial was warmer than the Holocene, explain why we should be freaked out by what are apparently natural trends of no consequence.

Explain in detail why 1950 is the optimal climate.
 

Scarecrow Akhbar

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"It's natural" is not any better an answer than "It's magic" or "God did it." Ok, so the earth changes temperatures naturally. Why? How?
"It's natural" fits the observations.

"Why? How?" is because that's the way the Milankovich cycles work out. Orbital changes, precessions, the rise of the Himalayas and the closure of the Panama Strait. All that played part in the alteration of cyclic climate then and cyclic climate now.

Again, the LAST interstadial was warmer than today's. Somehow the planet survived.

Fancy that.
 

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"It's natural" fits the observations.

"Why? How?" is because that's the way the Milankovich cycles work out. Orbital changes, precessions, the rise of the Himalayas and the closure of the Panama Strait. All that played part in the alteration of cyclic climate then and cyclic climate now.

Again, the LAST interstadial was warmer than today's. Somehow the planet survived.

Fancy that.
But how did the animal life do? Rapid climate changes are associated with mass extinction events - that will include us.

Just look at what is happening in Pakistan for a taste of what might be in store for us - "Droughts and flooding rains"
 

Deuce

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"It's natural" fits the observations.

"Why? How?" is because that's the way the Milankovich cycles work out. Orbital changes, precessions, the rise of the Himalayas and the closure of the Panama Strait. All that played part in the alteration of cyclic climate then and cyclic climate now.

Again, the LAST interstadial was warmer than today's. Somehow the planet survived.

Fancy that.
You're saying orbital precession caused a ~.7C temperature change in a century? I don't think you really get the time scale we're talking about here.
Just because life managed to survive these cycles doesn't mean they're not bad for us. Life survives these natural cycles because they occur very slowly. Nature can adapt in those cases. Periods of rapid change in the earth's climate coincide with eras of mass extinction. Mankind starting a rapid change would likely do the same, and the temperature right now is changing very rapidly, geologically speaking.

So no, milankovitch cycles don't work out that way. Not on a 100-year scale.
 

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See the thread in my signature for evidence that CO2 is a cause of warming. It's not comprehensive, but it's a start. The other big factors in temperature changes simply don't change measurably in this short a time period. (continental configuration and orbital mechanics are on way, way longer time scales)
You're doing what every skeptic does. "It's natural!" I thought I was quite clear on this:

"It's natural" is not any better an answer than "It's magic" or "God did it." Ok, so the earth changes temperatures naturally. Why? How?
The thread does not conclusively prove that Co2 is the only cause.

You were clear, but unfortunately, that doesn't make you correct in the slightest. You Straw Man doesn't help either. Logical Fallacies rarely do.

The mere fact that you would say "why" and "how" as to how the earth's temperatures can naturally change indicates that you need to do some serious research regarding meteorology and climatology. Here are a few places to start...

Data Analysis to Understand Climate

Climatology - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Climate Prediction Center

NOAA's National Weather Service

NASA - Home

Meteorology - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 

Scarecrow Akhbar

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But how did the animal life do? Rapid climate changes are associated with mass extinction events - that will include us.

Just look at what is happening in Pakistan for a taste of what might be in store for us - "Droughts and flooding rains"
Until the evolution of the most efficient hunting species ever, the Ice Age megafuana survived the interstadials mostly just dandy, when one takes into account the fact that most species only last about three million years anyway.

So, yes, Cro Magnon man in Europe and Asia, and the Indians in North America, are directly responsible for the extinction of many species of animals.

But, since there's no evidence to suggest humans are affecting the climate now, there's no basis for any claims that we're going to die next week because of climate changes.

What's happening in Pakistan is what?

Oh, that's right. They're looking for the soap. Can we stop pretending any particular local sporadic ecological disaster has any global significance? Just once can we do that?

Wanna know what all that water is REALLY doing in Asia? Well, the bit that does't fall out of the sky to wash the Pakistanis is falling out of the sky and making ice in the Himalayas, reversing the recent trend of glacial shrinkage.

What do you feel happens to the water that doesn't fall out at the lower altitudes as rain?
 

Scarecrow Akhbar

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You're saying orbital precession caused a ~.7C temperature change in a century?
No. I didn't say anything.

Since you asked, I'd say that better thermometers created a presumed temperature change over that time period.

Also, please take a couple years and study some calculus and differential equations, okay? Don't neglect your harmonics, while you're at it.

I don't think you really get the time scale we're talking about here.
I don't think you get the physical scale of the planet we're discussing here. And, since that's the case, I DO grasp the fact that the time scale we're discussing makes it exceedingly improbably that little old us has been influential in the changes that, after all, began before we did anything anyway.

Just because life managed to survive these cycles doesn't mean they're not bad for us.
Given that warmer climates lead to longer growing seasons, earlier growing seasons, vastly increased arable acreage, perennially navigable norther seaways, lower North Eastern heating bills (and Minnesota and the Dakota's too.), what's the problem?

Before you claim warmer is worse, you need to explain why 1950 is deemed so desirable.

Life survives these natural cycles because they occur very slowly.
No, they don't. Not really. Most interstadial come on rapidly, glaciations appear to happen fairly rapidly. How long do you think it took to drain Lake Agassiz or fill the Baltic Basin? How long did it take to fill the Mediterranean Basin? How long did it take for the Toba eruption to alter global climate?

Mankind starting a rapid change would likely do the same, and the temperature right now is changing very rapidly, geologically speaking.
You're making a logical jump from supposition to conclusion.

And got caught.
 
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