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The economy is doing well, yet layoffs continue....

Bucky

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Amazon, Citigroup, Xerox, Google and BlackRock See Layoffs in Efficiency Push | PYMNTS.com

In the first two weeks of the new year, several prominent companies, including Amazon, Citigroup, Xerox, Google and BlackRock, have announced plans to cut
www.pymnts.com

The truth of the matter is that if the economy were doing well, companies like Google and Amazon wouldn't be continuing with layoffs.

When you pull the curtains and look at the job data number, you are looking at a decrease in higher-quality jobs and an increase in lower-quality jobs that will likely be replaced through AI, automation, and technology in the next few years.

The signs of a recession are ominous. Very likely by the end of the year. The Fed has already signaled rate cuts by the middle of the year. Rate cuts in 2000, 2007, and 2019 were soon followed by recessions.

Disinflation - check
Rising unemployment - check

Americans, even with jobs, are tapped out financially. Consumer debt is at an all-time high and doesn't account for the Americans utilizing BNPL. Look up "phantom debt." You would be surprised how many Americans utilize 18-36 month payments for things like shoes or clothes.

If consumers with well-paying jobs are in debt/have no savings, a rise in unemployment, which seems likely, will tank consumer spending.
 
Absolute nonsense. Amazon and Google aren't laying people off because they aren't making money, they're laying people off because of robotics and AI. The unemployment rate is 3.7% so people are finding other jobs. Company layoffs occur in every economy as robots and AI take jobs, but the economy is doing so well there are other jobs to be had. And those jobs aren't for less money as wages are outpacing inflation.
Bucky said:
When you pull the curtains and look at the job data number, you are looking at a decrease in higher-quality jobs and an increase in lower-quality jobs that will likely be replaced through AI, automation, and technology in the next few years.
Click to expand...
The available data says the opposite is true. Wages are rising.
Bucky said:
The signs of a recession are ominous. Very likely by the end of the year. The Fed has already signaled rate cuts by the middle of the year. Rate cuts in 2000, 2007, and 2019 were soon followed by recessions.
Click to expand...
Again, not true. All signs point to no recession and a soft landing from the high inflation we experienced.
Bucky said:
Disinflation - check
Rising unemployment - check
Click to expand...
Nonsense, check.
Consumer debt has been rising for years due to stagnant wages. Wages are finally rising. This is a good sign. Will consumer spending tank? No. But hopefully it will come down some. It's too high.
 
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Did you actually read the article or just the headline?
 
Bucky said:
companies like Google and Amazon wouldn't be continuing with layoffs.
Click to expand...
Google and Amazon have frequent layoffs.

They realign their departments, end certain initiatives, start new initiatives, etc regularly within their organizations.

Same with major banks, other large employers/corporations, etc

I’m sorry you are so disconnected from the employment sector that you didn’t realize this and instead jumped to an erroneous conclusion.
 
all indicators are up----------------Biden is doing his job. People need to quit making excuses and get off their butts....
 
Loulit01 said:
Absolute nonsense. Amazon and Google aren't laying people off because they aren't making money, they're laying people off because of robotics and AI.
Click to expand...

They're laying people off probably because they typically over-hire and hoard workers, which isn't a problem when labor is cheaper and growth in demand is strong, but there are signs that demand is indeed weakening at a time when labor is getting more expensive. The margins are getting a little tighter now, which means that companies have to get leaner.

That being said, we're not having a hard landing -- at least not yet. This is continuing a trend of headcount adjustment since the pandemic boom ended.
 
We haven't yet to even begun to see the layoffs from AI. What we're seeing is the results of : over hiring, poor performing workers, and the cyclic nature of the business cycle. The shaky nature of employment is a sign to banks to further restrict lending by being more selective and further raising rates (regardless of what fed rates are doing). AI used in credit/risk analysis combined with 'big data' will be highly effective in squeezing out more dollars from the consumers limiting what they can spend.
 
Like trump, the red hat nut cases are all hoping for a crash. Seeing what they want to see is a hallmark of the current GOP stupidity.

All signs point to a positive economy, a soft landing form what many economists were calling an inevitable recession a year ago.
 

Do you want more examples?


NBC News lays off dozens in latest bad news for US workforce. See 2024 job cuts so far.

Layoffs came like an onslaught of fiery darts throughout 2023. Will 2024 be better? We're not off to a great start.
www.usatoday.com

NFL offers buyouts to more than 200 employees

News of the buyouts comes as the National Football League gears up for the playoffs.
www.cnbc.com

Duolingo Cuts 10% of Contractors as It Uses More AI to Create App Content

Duolingo Inc., the maker of language-learning software, is cutting some contractors while using generative artificial intelligence to create more content, the latest sign that companies are shifting some tasks typically handled by workers to AI tools.
www.bloomberg.com
 
tshade said:
all indicators are up----------------Biden is doing his job. People need to quit making excuses and get off their butts....
Click to expand...

All indicators were up in 2000, 2007, and 2019.
 
Upper management has a goal of getting more money for themselves no matter what the economy is doing.

News at eleven.
 
Helix said:
Upper management has a goal of getting more money for themselves no matter what the economy is doing.

News at eleven.
Click to expand...

Google's employee headcount has steadily increased over the past 10 years, though with some slight fluctuations in recent years. Here's a breakdown of the numbers:

YearEmployee Headcount% Change from Previous Year
2023174,014-8.5%
2022190,23421.6%
2021156,50015.7%
2020135,30113.8%
2019118,89920.4%
201898,77114.9%
201785,70624.4%
201668,60620.7%
201557,15032.9%
201443,12047.9%


Google's growth/employee headcount has been consistent over the past 20 years and you are claiming having a negative employee headcount is "normal."

LOL.
 
Helix said:
Upper management has a goal of getting more money for themselves no matter what the economy is doing.

News at eleven.
Click to expand...

Here is Amazon:

earEmployee Headcount% Change from Previous Year
2023 (Jan. 14)Estimated to be around 1.54 million(Data for full year 2023 not yet available)
20221,541,000-4.17%
20211,608,00023.88%
20201,298,00062.66%
2019798,00023.24%
2018650,00038.21%
2017475,00031.57%
2016363,00025.24%
2015288,40026.80%
2014226,10056.90%

Meta:

2023 (Sept. 30)66,185-23.47%![Chart showing a decrease in Meta's employee headcount in 2023]
202286,48220.16%![Chart showing an increase in Meta's employee headcount in 2022]
202171,97022.81%![Chart showing an increase in Meta's employee headcount in 2021]
202058,60430.40%![Chart showing an increase in Meta's employee headcount in 2020]
201944,94226.29%![Chart showing an increase in Meta's employee headcount in 2019]
201835,58544.27%![Chart showing an increase in Meta's employee headcount in 2018]
201724,68947.60%![Chart showing an increase in Meta's employee headcount in 2017]
201616,70939.50%![Chart showing an increase in Meta's employee headcount in 2016]
201511,95044.00%![Chart showing an increase in Meta's employee headcount in 2015]

These companies HAVE NOT laying off employees up until 2023.
 
Companies hire when they have to and fire whenever they can. I've been watching it happen for years.
 

These are no different than examples of layoffs that happen during any part of the cycle. Companies over-hire. Companies improve efficiency. They need to lay people off or investors will stop giving them money to play with. There's no definitive structural weakness in the labor market - not yet. There's some speculation this could start to change this year, but people make all sorts of predictions.
 
Yes, it's hard to explain how the dramatic increase in use of AI is impacting employment at companies that are increasingly using it.

Weren't you predicting a recession last year as well?
 
mrjurrs said:
Yes, it's hard to explain how the dramatic increase in use of AI is impacting employment at companies that are increasingly using it.

Weren't you predicting a recession last year as well?
Click to expand...

Several examples of non-tech companies laying off their employees, like the NFL, NBCnews, etc.

No company outside of Nvidia and Oracle is profiting from AI yet.
 
Helix said:
Companies hire when they have to and fire whenever they can. I've been watching it happen for years.
Click to expand...

I just showed you a chart, and Google has NOT been reducing headcount until 2023.
 
Bucky said:
Here is Amazon:
Click to expand...
Amazon found they had overhired - with the pandemic in the rear view mirror. Predictable, and normal business practice.
 
Bucky said:
I just showed you a chart, and Google has NOT been reducing headcount until 2023.
Click to expand...
Many companies seem to be hiring. Are you doing the whole "I really want the economy to fail before the election" thing?
 
If the economy stumbles the Fed has the abilty to lower interest rates. Also, if a downturn does happen will limit the power of companies to raise prices.

Don't like people losing their job, but doom and gloom posts aren't necessary at this point.
 
Bucky said:
Several examples of non-tech companies laying off their employees, like the NFL, NBCnews, etc.

No company outside of Nvidia and Oracle is profiting from AI yet.
Click to expand...
You don’t need to profit from AI to utilize it.

And none of these layoffs are “alarming”. Companies do layoffs regularly.
 
CimpleMan said:
If the economy stumbles the Fed has the abilty to lower interest rates. Also, if a downturn does happen will limit the power of companies to raise prices.

Don't like people losing their job, but doom and gloom posts aren't necessary at this point.
Click to expand...

The fed already pivoted and announced rate cates by May, possibly sooner.

Not a question of IF, but when.
 
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