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The Economist: WHERE DONALD TRUMP'S SUPPORT REALLY COMES FROM

Lafayette

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20160423_woc132_1.png


Excerpt:
MOST analysis of Donald Trump’s support in the primary elections has focused on his appeal to poorer, working-class white voters, who are assumed to have lost the most to globalisation and are more open to his particular brand of populist politics. But his victory in the New York Republican primary on April 19th underscored his wider support across the party’s base. Mr Trump took 61% of the vote overall (the first time he has gained over 50%) winning across all demographic groups. That was to be expected in his home state. However, averaging out his support in all state primaries (where exit polling is available) shows that richer and better educated voters form as big a part of Mr Trump’s support base as those at the lower end of the income and education scales.

He does not have a majority of the “rich vote”. The race is split. But the idea that it is mostly poor, less-educated voters who are drawn to Mr Trump is a bit of a myth. Only 13% of the votes in New York’s Republican primary came from New York city; the vast majority were from the traditionally more Republican upstate area. But the data show that he won the support of 52% of voters statewide earning under $50,000, and 64% of those earning over $100,000. It would seem Mr Trump is a broadly appealing fellow after all.

Any opinions ... ?
 
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Hawkeye10

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There are a lot of highly educated people who support Trump, and we have good reasons for doing so, but nobody wants to hear about that because it does not conform to the storyline that your owners have spent 6 months trying to sell you....the one about Trump being a buffoon.
 

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Excerpt:

Any opinions ... ?

I have read a number of interviews or speeches by the man of recent. He is not as bad as he seemed at first blush. Much more substance than at first. He certainly is not my dream candidate lacking experience in managing large governments, in international trade and in foreign affairs to the extent he does. With him we would in this sense be taking the same bet, as we did with the last one.
 

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I have read a number of interviews or speeches by the man of recent. He is not as bad as he seemed at first blush. Much more substance than at first. He certainly is not my dream candidate lacking experience in managing large governments, in international trade and in foreign affairs to the extent he does. With him we would in this sense be taking the same bet, as we did with the last one.

I would argue neither candidate has the experience in managing large govts. Trump is just as qualified as any of the other blowhards running on both teams.
 

Lafayette

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I have read a number of interviews or speeches by the man of recent. He is not as bad as he seemed at first blush. Much more substance than at first. He certainly is not my dream candidate lacking experience in managing large governments, in international trade and in foreign affairs to the extent he does. With him we would in this sense be taking the same bet, as we did with the last one.

He has never been elected to political office in his life.

One would have to be crazy to vote for him, either at primary or national level.

And, yes, I think the Yanks of Today are quite capable of electing him, which is why I am grateful to be living in Europe. I had thought that his support was purely amongst the nerds, but it seems intelligent people also will vote for him.

By what means of intelligence, I haven't the foggiest notion. The guy is an irreparable opportunist ... but maybe that is why he's liked? That character flaw is admired by a great many more people than we thought!

(We have a nerd-head for a socialist president in France, from one of the most prestigious French universities. With an approval rating in the low teens. he could not be re-elected street-sweeper nowadays in France.)
 

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Excerpt:

Any opinions ... ?

A link to the article for those interested: Daily chart: Where Donald Trump?s support really comes from | The Economist

I can't say I am terribly shocked and I would argue that this is mostly a result of statistics. That is to say, that if you collect enough individuals (and Trump has collected roughly 8.7 million votes total), then the breakdown of that group will largely confirm with the broader population. So the amount of individuals who are college educated and supported Trump should be roughly similar to the amount of college educated Republicans.

The interesting aspect occurs when there are breaks from the trend, like when you link a fear that white individuals are losing out because of preferences towards blacks and latinos to be one of the strongest predictive links towards support for Trump.
 

Captain Adverse

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He has never been elected to political office in his life.


We've had a number of Presidents who have never been elected to political office prior to bring President:

Zachary Taylor,
Ulysses S. Grant,
Dwight D. Eisenhower,
William Howard Taft,
Herbert Hoover,
Chester A. Arthur (who held no elected office prior to being elected Vice President and then assuming the office of President six months later when James Garner was assassinated).

One would have to be crazy to vote for him, either at primary or national level.

And, yes, I think the Yanks of Today are quite capable of electing him, which is why I am grateful to be living in Europe. I had thought that his support was purely amongst the nerds, but it seems intelligent people also will vote for him.

By what means of intelligence, I haven't the foggiest notion. The guy is an irreparable opportunist ... but maybe that is why he's liked? That character flaw is admired by a great many more people than we thought!

Well we are glad you are a citizen of France too. :roll:

Intelligent people are capable of looking past attempts at character assassination and assessing the validity of candidates for office on their merits.

Perhaps if you read through some of the rationales offered by members of this Forum who've decided to support his candidacy rather than joining the mob of people stampeded by propaganda designed to oppose him you'd understand better.

Then again...maybe not. :coffeepap:
 

Lafayette

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Intelligent people are capable of looking past attempts at character assassination and assessing the validity of candidates for office on their merits.

That's your definition of an "intelligent person"? One who looks past the character-assasination of which Trump has been typical.

Merit's? Name two.

Wow ... no wonder the US is long-term decline ...
 

Lafayette

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The interesting aspect occurs when there are breaks from the trend, like when you link a fear that white individuals are losing out because of preferences towards blacks and latinos to be one of the strongest predictive links towards support for Trump.

I agree with both of your arguments, but particularly this one above.

And I don't see the why or wherefore. Both the blacks and Latinos do earn statistically less than whites, and whites earn less than both those of Asian or Indian origin.

It should be a matter only of educational talent - which is the principal reason that Asians and Indians excel in terms of Income Gains.

The opportunity to offer Tertiary Level education to (all comers) at very-low cost would be the leveling-agent - meaning everybody in the race would be at the same level starting-block. Which is what is being done in Canada and Europe, where the cost of Tertiary Education is much less than in the US. (Then the road to great success is a matter of opportunity or luck, but not necessarily just birth.)

See the results of this OECD Study of Tertiary Education Costs:

Average Tertiary Education Fees (OECD).jpg
 

Lafayette

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Perhaps if you read through some of the rationales offered by members of this Forum who've decided to support his candidacy rather than joining the mob of people stampeded by propaganda designed to oppose him you'd understand better.

Perhaps if you stopped pontificating and gave those arguments yourself we could debate them.

You know "debate" as in the title of this forum ... ?
 

joG

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He has never been elected to political office in his life.

One would have to be crazy to vote for him, either at primary or national level.

And, yes, I think the Yanks of Today are quite capable of electing him, which is why I am grateful to be living in Europe. I had thought that his support was purely amongst the nerds, but it seems intelligent people also will vote for him.

By what means of intelligence, I haven't the foggiest notion. The guy is an irreparable opportunist ... but maybe that is why he's liked? That character flaw is admired by a great many more people than we thought!

(We have a nerd-head for a socialist president in France, from one of the most prestigious French universities. With an approval rating in the low teens. he could not be re-elected street-sweeper nowadays in France.)

True. It is very dangerous to take a man of no political experience. But I don't know that this is worse than the bureaucrats with decades of experience we find running European systems. One might be tempted to say that it makes less difference as the damage they can do is more local than that of the American man. But it should give one pause for a moment to reflect one's own dilemma before pointing one's finger at the Yank.
 

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Perhaps if you stopped pontificating and gave those arguments yourself we could debate them.

You know "debate" as in the title of this forum ... ?
I am not in the habit of defending the Cap'n as we have had decided differences in the past. I am full foward on this becoming more of a debate site than a one liner throw away as many do here. Takes no deep thought to just call the other a name.

However, besides putting up charts detailing the support for Trump, I do not believe I have seen anything from you in the way of logic, common sense or wisdom, just, as the Cap'n said, just more reguritating the current myths, calling names and saying nothing of real substance.

Cap'n countered your never being elected point, check.

Why would he argue your simpleton points of being crazy [ without any rationale attached ] or why you should be glad to be in Europe? Check.

You do not give any proofs that he is any more an opportunist than any other candidate, so nothing of substance to counter there, check.

And finally, why would he argue about how poor your leader there is in France? Check. And, just for kicks, how long has France been in decline? You want that we desire your obviously flawed, shallow level, advice? Try thinking again.
 

MrWonka

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There are a lot of highly educated people who support Trump,

Being highly educated does not necessarily make you intelligent nor does it make you a good person. Clearly though the bulk of Trump's support is coming from some of the worst human beings in this country. Anything that makes those types of people happy is almost certainly bad for the country and the world.
 

Jetboogieman

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There are a lot of highly educated people who support Trump.

If that's the case well... They clearly learnt nothing when they were allegedly being "Highly educated".

I'd ask for my money back if the education I'd received made me so braindead I'd vote for Trump.
 

Hawkeye10

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If that's the case well... They clearly learnt nothing when they were allegedly being "Highly educated".

I'd ask for my money back if the education I'd received made me so braindead I'd vote for Trump.

That retort stopped working months ago, it's time for you to adjust to reality.

Washington is broken, for instance go to Politico today, there is a decent piece about how the talented politician Ryan cant get a budget passed because no one can get a budget passed because the chamber is broken.

We need a game changer, we need Trump.

Some of us are smart enough to understand this. Others not so much.
 

Jetboogieman

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That retort stopped working months ago, it's time for you to adjust to reality.

Washington is broken, for instance go to Politico today, there is a decent piece about how the talented politician Ryan cant get a budget passed because no one can get a budget passed because the chamber is broken.

We need a game changer, we need Trump.

Some of us are smart enough to understand this. Others not so much.

Preposterous.

Voting for trump to fix Washington is like thinking that since you're house is on fire, the solution is to burn down the entire neighborhood.

Much like Sanders, Trump can't pass anything he's talking about, not that he actually talks solid policy very much anyway :shrug:

Only difference is the US military in the hands of Trump is a threat to global stability.
 

Hawkeye10

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Preposterous.

Voting for trump to fix Washington is like thinking that since you're house is on fire, the solution is to burn down the entire neighborhood.

Much like Sanders, Trump can't pass anything he's talking about, not that he actually talks solid policy very much anyway :shrug:

Only difference is the US military in the hands of Trump is a threat to global stability.

If the elite would get their heads out of their asses Trump would accept the guidance and would make smart choices when called upon. There is no way in hell I am going to allow the elites assertion that they will continue to refuse to do their duty out of spite for the little people keep me from doing what I as a little person needs to do. If everyone does the right thing we will be fine, but let me tell you something,if those who refuse their duty cause great harm to the nation then where shall be rivers of blood let flowing. Majorities matter, and we have more people on the side of the rebellion.

Count on it.
 
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Jetboogieman

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If the elite would get their heads out of their asses Trump would accept the guidance and would make smart choices when called upon. There is no way in hell I am going to take the elites assertion that they will continue to refuse to do their duty out of spite for the little people keep me from doing what I as a little person needs to do. If everyone does the right thing we will be fine, but let me tell you something,if those who refuse their duty cause great harm to the nation then where shall be rivers of blood let flowing. Majorities matter, and we have more people on the side of the rebellion.

Count on it.

Ya'Kay there buddy.
 

Hawkeye10

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Ya'Kay there buddy.

This former revolutionary is seeing possibilities of our political system working to promote reform before the pissed off and screwed over decide to burn the place down like I have not seen in years. It was my good fortune to retire just as the nation witnessed the stunning rise of Trump, powered as he is by the long silently abused and ignored masses in the flyover country. This is fun!

I am in my happy place.
 

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But I don't know that this is worse than the bureaucrats with decades of experience we find running European systems. One might be tempted to say that it makes less difference as the damage they can do is more local than that of the American man.

Some people like working for the government as Civil Servants because they do believe in "serving their country". I suggest the larger argument is nonetheless that the pay is relatively stable. One can build a family upon it, and retire well-enough.

Which does not mean that Civil Servants should be running the country. And that is problem in most of Europe. Far too many of the people at the top, elected, are from Civil Service backgrounds. So, they see "good government" as simply getting the Civil-Service structure right.

There is no reason why those with business-careers cannot cycle in-and-out of government service for a period of time. The "fresh-insight" of commerce would be helpful.

They don't have the foggiest notion of what "unpredicted and unpredictable historical blips" can do. Like, for instance, what the Internet did for commerce. (And a lot more other businesses.) Which is why they are always playing (here in the EU) "catch-up".

From time-to-time, it would be nice to have people with "industrial/commercial experience", who understand the fundamentals of how an economy actually works, instead of waiting for market-failures to appear and then rushing about to fix them.

A circumstance that is proverbial: "An ounce of prevention is worth a ton of cure ..."
 
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He has never been elected to political office in his life.

One would have to be crazy to vote for him, either at primary or national level.

And, yes, I think the Yanks of Today are quite capable of electing him, which is why I am grateful to be living in Europe. I had thought that his support was purely amongst the nerds, but it seems intelligent people also will vote for him.

By what means of intelligence, I haven't the foggiest notion. The guy is an irreparable opportunist ... but maybe that is why he's liked? That character flaw is admired by a great many more people than we thought!

(We have a nerd-head for a socialist president in France, from one of the most prestigious French universities. With an approval rating in the low teens. he could not be re-elected street-sweeper nowadays in France.)

But many see Trump never having been elected - that is not being a politician - as an advantage rather a disqualification.
 

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Being highly educated does not necessarily make you intelligent nor does it make you a good person. Clearly though the bulk of Trump's support is coming from some of the worst human beings in this country. Anything that makes those types of people happy is almost certainly bad for the country and the world.

Some of Trump's support will come from the worst, some from the best and some from the average. Just like any candidate in any election anywhere. When I was a (Conservative) candidate in a local election I said 'please vote for me'. I did not add ' but only if you are one of the best human beings in the country'.
 

Lafayette

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But many see Trump never having been elected - that is not being a politician - as an advantage rather a disqualification.

I agree, but it is not unfair either to judge him based upon that lack of experience. After all, running a country is not at all like running a casino. (Which he did badly, btw. His business acumen has had "mixed" success. See here.)

For Governor, yes, perhaps, if the electorate insists*.

But running a country with his finger on the Nuclear Button? No way, José ... !

*Still, we ask kids to take driving lessons before running the car into a wall. Why not the same for the presidency ... ?
 
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