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The Caucasus is on fire again

joluoto

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No, no buying peace. No more extortion money as those people have been killing each other for at least 3,000 years.
You know there is also the "we could cancel existing deal and agreements or leave negotiations already going on if you don't behave" approach.
 

joko104

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You know there is also the "we could cancel existing deal and agreements or leave negotiations already going on if you don't behave" approach.
That just sucks us into it. These are NOT our countries. No matter what happens, there is no security risk to the USA. Rather, this practice has so weakened us that now almost no one disputes that it is China - not the USA - that will be the greatest economic, diplomatic and military power in the world as the USA continues to rapidly decline on all fronts. Getting into every country's affairs is why much of the world despises the USA. "Do what we want or we'll ruin you country, maybe even start blowing up stuff you are defenseless to stop" does not benefit the USA - or the world.

There is terrible poverty to the degree of starvation in much of the world. Why don't we instead do something about that rather than "hey! Look! Another border dispute war we can inject ourselves into the middle of! Wow, can a lot of people make a lot of money and gain more power out of this!"
 

joluoto

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That just sucks us into it. These are NOT our countries. No matter what happens, there is no security risk to the USA. Rather, this practice has so weakened us that now almost no one disputes that it is China - not the USA - that will be the greatest economic, diplomatic and military power in the world as the USA continues to rapidly decline on all fronts. Getting into every country's affairs is why much of the world despises the USA. "Do what we want or we'll ruin you country, maybe even start blowing up stuff you are defenseless to stop" does not benefit the USA - or the world.

There is terrible poverty to the degree of starvation in much of the world. Why don't we instead do something about that rather than "hey! Look! Another border dispute war we can inject ourselves into the middle of! Wow, can a lot of people make a lot of money and gain more power out of this!"
Who've said anything about getting involved in the fighting. Now THAT is stupid. However Great Powers unfortunately stay great through meddling in others' affairs. That's what China is doing right now, they meddle. There are other pressure that can be used than arms. Small countries like Azerbaijan or Armenia can't really afford isolation on the world stage. As I said there are strings to pull if you're a Great Power. There are contacts that are sympathetic to certain powers among their government, deals already made that can suddenly end, future projects promised that suddenly can be withdrawn.
 

joko104

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Who've said anything about getting involved in the fighting. Now THAT is stupid. However Great Powers unfortunately stay great through meddling in others' affairs. That's what China is doing right now, they meddle. There are other pressure that can be used than arms. Small countries like Azerbaijan or Armenia can't really afford isolation on the world stage. As I said there are strings to pull if you're a Great Power. There are contacts that are sympathetic to certain powers among their government, deals already made that can suddenly end, future projects promised that suddenly can be withdrawn.
Of course that's what it means. We sell them military hardware - on loans with interest - and then have to protect our financial interests - plus then have our pilots flying those aircraft and paying for all the intelligence including geo-space intelligence. And, of course, provide "military advisors" (meaning special forces). Next comes due to the terrible evil and cruelty being done by the other side, we have to escalate our presence.

Of course, not enough to win or end the fighting - rather to perpetuate it while we pursue peace talks - for years and decades. 70 years later we are still pursuing peace talks with N. Korea - 28,000 troops on bases we pay for there - a war we claim we won. Of course this means we militarily involve. That is what it always means. That's the entire point. The absurd "peace thru war and death" slogans.
 

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Study world history. Borders have perpetually changed. One people overpowering another. Endlessly.

But after WW2 it was realized how truly profitable war is - both money and power. So the USA declared we will be the world's police force to insure no national borders every change again.

It's absurd. Let them fight it out. One side or the other wins. To the victor goes the spoils. We have nothing at stake in that. It's either that - or non-stop killing for years and decades on and on.
 

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It's horrible how easily these clashes just begin and how terribly difficult it is for them to end afterwards.
 

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This link (to the bbc.com on-line) that joluoto provided contained information that was helpful to me. One of its theses was that Russia was the key to the conflict. It argues that Turkey is too dependent on Russia to do too much to displease Russia.

I also found this interesting tidbit of information. To my ears, "Nagorno-Karabakh" is just a hard to memorize name devoid of meaning. The article gave it some context by explaining that "'Karabakh' is the Russian rendering of an Azeri word meaning 'black garden', while 'Nagorno' is a Russian word meaning 'mountainous'".
 
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NewfieMom

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But after WW2 it was realized how truly profitable war is - both money and power. So the USA declared we will be the world's police force to insure no national borders every change again.
Actually the goal was for The United Nations to make war less likely due to discussion among nations, a final realization of Woodrow Wilson's original proposed League of Nations. Then associations like NATO an SEATO were created to help the "free world" defend against communist take overs by mutual defense, not by having the United States act alone.
 

joluoto

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This link (to the bbc.com on-line) that joluoto provided contained information that was helpful to me. One of its theses was that Russia was the key to the conflict. It argues that Turkey is too dependent on Russia to do too much to displease Russia.

I also found this interesting tidbit of information. To my ears, "Nagorno-Karabakh" is just a hard to memorize name devoid of meaning. The article gave it some context by explaining that "'Karabakh' is the Russian rendering of an Azeri word meaning 'black garden', while 'Nagorno' is a Russian word meaning 'mountainous'".
We have to remember that Turkey is right now also involved in their Meditrérranean push to increase their sea zone on the expense of Greece, and it's not clear they can focus on that and actively back the Azeris at the same time. Erdogan might have to make a choice here.

Russia is indeed a key player since they have interests in both countries (strategic and military with their old Armenian ally, and economic ties with oil producer Azerbaijan).
 

joluoto

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The last time the region was on fire was 2016 when both armies clashed in a short conflict. Caspian Report then made two videos about Armenian- Azeri relations. I decided to rewatch them now.



 

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Armenia and Azerbaijan are at it again in Nagorno- Karakbakh

Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict: Violence escalates in Nagorno-Karabakh

Let's hope it doesn't escalate into war. Both Armenia and the Azeris are mobilizing. And of course the Azeris have Turkish backing while the Armenians have Russian support. There has been many close calls recently when they have almost gone to war. Doesn't take much for the powder keg to explode.
Hopefully Armenia can hold off the Azeris.
 

joluoto

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Hopefully Armenia can hold off the Azeris.
Hopefully those peace talks can start again, and neither side abrupts them this time. I don't really give a piss about which army does what, if the fighting continues people die, I hope the fighting ends.
 

Tigerace117

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Hopefully those peace talks can start again, and neither side abrupts them this time. I don't really give a piss about which army does what, if the fighting continues people die, I hope the fighting ends.
It doesn’t seem real likely, frankly. Turkey wants this war badly, and the two sides hate each other enough for there not to be any real desire for peace. It’s like Germany and France prior to WW1.
 

joluoto

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It doesn’t seem real likely, frankly. Turkey wants this war badly, and the two sides hate each other enough for there not to be any real desire for peace. It’s like Germany and France prior to WW1.
Turkey is busy with their Mediterranean showoff with Greece. As I said earlier this might force Erdogan to choose which conflict is more important for him. I am not sure Ankara wanted this to explode now.
 

Ringo Stalin

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The problem is that Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan but the people there identify as Armenian.
Kosovo has always been a serbian territory, but this did not prevent the United States and NATO from declaring it independent from Serbia.
Military operations near the borders of Russia began on the eve of the US election... an Interesting coincidence. especially after the failed attempts in Belarus to turn it into another hostile section on Russia's border... What's left for the ghouls to set fire to before November? Transnistria? The Donbass?

Trump is a peacemaker (c). Aha! Trump is a huckster, ready to kill for his own skin and stinking money. And all this so that at the election debate, in response to the accusations of other scoundrels in "selling to the Russians", he would be able to cry out: "No one in history has been so firm towards Moscow as I am"

Elections in US have become akin to a stock exchange. Thousands will die for a couple percent increase in rating
 

Ringo Stalin

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PM of Armenia:"Yerevan can recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh"
And only in the Soviet Union, before Gorbachev, did they live in peace. Proto-capitalists first used the phantom memory of age-old conflicts to destroy a single organism. Now they use the same phantom to distract from their robberies.

" Turkey backed Syrian National Army fighters are reportedly in Azerbaijan!!!"
It's nothing! The main thing is that there should be no interference in the аffairs of other states. Civilized countries will confirm this. Don't distract your attention from Russia's interference in the US election!
 

Ringo Stalin

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It is very tragic that armenians and azerbaijanis are ready to tear each other apart for the sake of a tiny fragment of the territory of a huge country that once belonged to all of them...
 

joluoto

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Here's a good article on the conflict:
Nagorno-Karabakh: Why has there been a flare-up of violence?

One interesting takeaway is Russia's interests. Renewed fighting is bad for Russia since they have interests in both countries, but a permanent solution is neither in Russia's interest since a divided Caucasus is much easier to deal with than one where the three nations (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia) cooperates.
 

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The Armenian authorities intend to build qualitatively new relations with Russia, Prime Minister Pashinyan said.
All roads lead to Russia. Sooner or later.

It's a pity that many people choose the "late" option. When it is no longer a path, but actually an evacuation.
 

Ringo Stalin

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Yerevan: A Turkish F-16 fighter jet shot down an Armenian SU-25, as noted, the turkish plane was operating from a military airfield located on the territory of Azerbaijan. If the report is confirmed, it is an act of direct military aggression by Turkey. The Caucasus is on the verge of a major war.
How similar the situation in Belarus and Armenia is! Games in multi-vector, in the European choice. And when trouble comes, it turns out that only Russia will come to the rescue. And it's been happening for centuries! God, can you ever learn from history once and for all?
 
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joluoto

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Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict: Azerbaijan president vows to fight on

The Azerbaijani President vows to fight on until Armenians are driven out of Azerbaijani territory.
With Erdogan at least openly backing Azerbaijan with words, and most likely shot down an Armenian plane... we will see where it goes. Armenia's most outspoken supporter has thus far been France. Russia has kept a lowe profile for now.
 

joko104

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It doesn’t seem real likely, frankly. Turkey wants this war badly, and the two sides hate each other enough for there not to be any real desire for peace. It’s like Germany and France prior to WW1.
And why we should stay out of it entirely. The region of the Caucasus caused 3 major wars, including both world wars. There never has and never will be peace in that region. We should stay out of their killing fields.
 

Tigerace117

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And why we should stay out of it entirely. The region of the Caucasus caused 3 major wars, including both world wars. There never has and never will be peace in that region. We should stay out of their killing fields.
Um.....what?

World War One was started by the assassination of Franz Ferdinand in Bosnia. Bosnia is not in the Caucasus region.

World War Two was started in Europe by Germany’s attack on Poland. Poland is not in the Caucasus region either.

You’ve clearly confused the Balkans and Caucasus.
 

joluoto

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And why we should stay out of it entirely. The region of the Caucasus caused 3 major wars, including both world wars. There never has and never will be peace in that region. We should stay out of their killing fields.
That's not true. World War 1 started in the Balkans, not the Caucasus. And World War 2 started when Germany invaded Poland. You fail at geography as well as history.
 
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