The Case for the Nuclear Option

[JBG]

Apparently the wisdom I discovered in Luttwak's article is slightly different than your own. He wrote: "Whether nuclear or not, the workings of deterrence depend on threats of punishment that others will find believable."

Assuming one could get NATO members to agree (and they would not) would it have been believable to Putin that NATO threats to "punish" his invasion with the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the face of Russia's ten to one advantage in tactical nuclear warheads?

I think not. Unlike the cold war NATO no longer has nuclear tipped cruise and regional ballistic missiles. Nor do NATO warships. All it has are 200 or so free fall bombs compared to Russia's vast array of 2500 tactical nukes on long range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and perhaps field artillery. Keeping such a war on a tactical level would be self-defeating, and quickly present the US with a choice...to use larger strategic nuclear weapons from submarines and land based silos, over the issue of Ukraine?

Foolishly the US/Nato has given up its ability to defend itself on a tactical level by retiring its vast nuclear inventory. The bottom line is in a conventional war NATO wins, in a tactical nuclear war Russia wins, and in a strategic war both sides lose.

Luttwak wrote in an era where the roles were reversed. Which is why Russia has promised first use of tactical or greater nuclear weapons if it fears its "existence" is threatened.

I read your well-considered post. I don't agree. I doubt that Russia's delivery capacity is well-maintained. In any event, we don't need to permit a Russian romp over Europe.

 

[JBG]

It depends on how long the Russian people will tolerate the total isolation and poverty that the world will inflict on Russia as long as Putin still has his head. You do not understand the resolve that Putin has instilled in the world. He resurrected the evil empire with a vengeance.

The Russian people have tolerated poverty for millennia, unfortunately. They are good at revolting, granted. They are not good at replacing totalitarians with anything better.

 

[JBG]

• Siad Barre 50,000 to 100,000
• Mengistu Haile Mariam 225,000 to 2,000,000
• North Korea 710,000 to 3,500,000
• Vladimir Lenin 1,101,000 to 10,442,168
• Joseph Stalin 8,688,614 to 42,673,000[515]
• Hungarian People's Republic 7,000 to 13,748
• Czechoslovak Socialist Republic 24,000 to 181,000
• Socialist Republic of Romania 100,000 to 920,000 [516]
• People's Republic of Bulgaria 31,000 to 220,000
• Communist Yugoslavia 60,000 to 802,000
• Communist Afghanistan 500,000 to 2,000,000 [63][64]
• Mao Zedong 14,627,560 to 80,170,000
  • Deng Xiaoping Between the years: 1976 and 1986 (Death toll included with Mao)
• Communist Mozambique 83,000 to 250,000
• Cuba 29,919 to 141,000
• Enver Hoxha 5,000 to 11,180
• Vietnam 145,225 to 1,082,000
• Pol Pot 1,386,734 to 3,400,000
• People's Republic of Angola 100,000 to 200,000
• Heng Samrin 68,000 to 383,000
• Mongolian People's Republic 35,000 to 200,000
• Sandinista National Liberation Front 5000
• Polish People's Republic 10,000 to 54,000
• Communist Greece 14,000 to 25,000
• Bela Kun 5,032
• Communist Laos 46,000 to 77,000
• Zanzibar 3,000 to 13,000
• South Yemen 1,000
• East Germany 327 to 70,000

Kudos for Peoples' Governments!

 

[Tigerace117]

That was before they figured out Castro was going to turn the entire country into a giant prison filled with nothing but poor people and rich communists.



No, he took power from within through good old fashioned repression. That’s what communists do when they can’t win with guns.



You keep saying that without offering any evidence to support it. Since most Nicaraguans weren’t even born at the time of Somoza, I’m going to claim bullshit.



The most prosperous country in Latin America resulted from economic policies instituted by a junta, That’s a fact.

Gee bud, as opposed to the option the US was supporting, which was a return to poor Cubans and with rich American gangsters and their pals brutally torturing and murdering anyone who so much as looked at them sideways? Suuuuuuch an appealing alternative

Castro started off with a couple dozen men and no plan. He wound up chasing Batista and his cronies off the island. You can’t do that if you don’t tap into a very real, and very deep seated, source of anger and need for change amongst the people. The Cubans were sick of the brutal tyrant we sponsored on their island and were desperate to overthrow him.

Considering the American backed Somoza dictatorship was overthrown in 1979, that’s a laugh. And then, of course, you had the YEARS of undeclared warfare by the US against Nicaragua.

Meanwhile they slaughtered thousands of innocent people and the Chileans have rejected everything your heroes stood for. Deal with it. Maybe if you cry hard enough about imaginary “communists” you can pretend the junta was a good thing

 

[Tigerace117]

Kudos for Peoples' Governments!

Too bad the thugs we supported are every bit as bad.

 

[JBG]

Too bad the thugs we supported are every bit as bad.

I don't think the things we supported have seven- or eight-figure death tolls, like Democratic Kampuchea or People's Republic of China. How about a Holodomer?

 

[Tigerace117]

I don't think the things we supported have seven- or eight-figure death tolls, like Democratic Kampuchea or People's Republic of China. How about a Holodomer?

We actively supported the People’s Republic of China for decades against the USSR, actually. About the only thing they wanted that we didn’t give them was an outright annexation of Taiwan. We also provided diplomatic support to Romania’s psychotic dictator, Nicolae Ceaucescu, because he was more “independent minded” than the rest of the Warsaw Pact. The fact that he tried to emulate the Kim family in North Korea was happily ignored.

And that’s not even getting into the type of slaughter carried out by thugs like Pinochet or Syngman Rhee(who was better than the North Koreans by the slimmest of margins, frankly).

 

[JBG]

We actively supported the People’s Republic of China for decades against the USSR, actually. About the only thing they wanted that we didn’t give them was an outright annexation of Taiwan. We also provided diplomatic support to Romania’s psychotic dictator, Nicolae Ceaucescu, because he was more “independent minded” than the rest of the Warsaw Pact. The fact that he tried to emulate the Kim family in North Korea was happily ignored.

And that’s not even getting into the type of slaughter carried out by thugs like Pinochet or Syngman Rhee(who was better than the North Koreans by the slimmest of margins, frankly).

Sometimes you are stuck with imperfect regimes with whom to ally. I guess that was the price of allowing the USSR to go nuclear in the late 1940s.

 

[Tigerace117]

Sometimes you are stuck with imperfect regimes with whom to ally. I guess that was the price of allowing the USSR to go nuclear in the late 1940s.

The Soviets didn’t care whether or not we wanted them to go nuclear, and short of a desperate, flailing invasion which would have amounted to a bloodbath of epic proportions we couldn’t have stopped them.

 

[JBG]

The Soviets didn’t care whether or not we wanted them to go nuclear, and short of a desperate, flailing invasion which would have amounted to a bloodbath of epic proportions we couldn’t have stopped them.

How about bombing their sites? I think the U.S. State Department assumed they could be negotiated into some paper understanding.

 

[Tigerace117]

How about bombing their sites? I think the U.S. State Department assumed they could be negotiated into some paper understanding.

Which, again, would have led to a bloodbath of a war and was unlikely to succeed. At BEST it could have mildly delayed the Soviet project, but given the amount of information they’d already received the odds of stopping it were somewhere between “slim” and “literally none”.

 

[JBG]

Which, again, would have led to a bloodbath of a war and was unlikely to succeed. At BEST it could have mildly delayed the Soviet project, but given the amount of information they’d already received the odds of stopping it were somewhere between “slim” and “literally none”.

The USSR was in no condition to create a bloodbath other than with helpless countries, such as war-decimated Eastern Europe.

 

[Tigerace117]

The USSR was in no condition to create a bloodbath other than with helpless countries, such as war-decimated Eastern Europe.

The Soviet Army numbered roughly eleven MILLION troops by 1945.

Which was significantly larger than the US Army at that point, even if we’d withdrawn every last soldier from the Pacific Theater.

 

[Juks]

Well there you go: New York City "Very Liberals" are in the bag for launching nukes.

Just making sure you aren't....

 

[Schism]

Just making sure you aren't....

Never.

 

[JBG]

The Soviet Army numbered roughly eleven MILLION troops by 1945.

Which was significantly larger than the US Army at that point, even if we’d withdrawn every last soldier from the Pacific Theater.

What % of those were effective at that point?

 

[Tigerace117]

What % of those were effective at that point?

Enough to make any invasion attempt pure idiocy.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

It’s not obvious at all, unless you are believing Ukranian propaganda uncritically. 24 gorillian russians dead, and their entire Air Force shot down, blah blah. The Russians have greatly destroyed the capacity of the Ukranian forces.

Before this war began you bragged about how well the Russians would do. Boy, were you wrong. Let's quickly recap how the outnumbered Ukrainian forces wiped the floor with the Russian army, and why the Russian army is a paper tiger:

• The destruction of the Russian Parachute Regiment north of Kyiv during the first week of the war.
• The loss of at least 7 Russian generals & an unlimited number of Colonel Commanders of key Combined Arms Armies and Tank/Motorized Rifle Units.
• The increasing number of Russian soldiers (mostly conscripts) killed in action (20,000+).
• The destruction of over 700 tanks and literally hundreds of other armored vehicles (confirmed by open source intel).
• The inability of the Russian Air Force to provide close air support to Russian ground troops or deep strikes against Ukrainian forces due to fear of UA air defense
• Russians communicating using unencrypted devices that leads to intelligence leaks
• Ukraine Army helicopters conducting a cross-border operations into Belgorod to destroy multiple fuel tanks
• Ukrainian special operations striking behind Russian lines against key logistics targets.
• Russian failure to resupply/medically evacuate their troops
• The sinking of the Moskva.

Putin is a loser. The Russian army is terrible. The Russians are stupid losers.

 

[Tigerace117]

Before this war began you bragged about how well the Russians would do. Boy, were you wrong. Let's quickly recap how the outnumbered Ukrainian forces wiped the floor with the Russian army, and why the Russian army is a paper tiger:

• The destruction of the Russian Parachute Regiment north of Kyiv during the first week of the war.
• The loss of at least 7 Russian generals & an unlimited number of Colonel Commanders of key Combined Arms Armies and Tank/Motorized Rifle Units.
• The increasing number of Russian soldiers (mostly conscripts) killed in action (20,000+).
• The destruction of over 700 tanks and literally hundreds of other armored vehicles (confirmed by open source intel).
• The inability of the Russian Air Force to provide close air support to Russian ground troops or deep strikes against Ukrainian forces due to fear of UA air defense
• Russians communicating using unencrypted devices that leads to intelligence leaks
• Ukraine Army helicopters conducting a cross-border operations into Belgorod to destroy multiple fuel tanks
• Ukrainian special operations striking behind Russian lines against key logistics targets.
• Russian failure to resupply/medically evacuate their troops
• The sinking of the Moskva.

Putin is a loser. The Russian army is terrible. The Russians are stupid losers.

By that logic the US military is a paper tiger as well, since we lost to a bunch of goat herders who didn’t even HAVE a air force or tanks, despite twenty years of trying and trillions of dollars spent.

Underestimating the enemy is about the dumbest thing one can do.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

By that logic the US military is a paper tiger as well, since we lost to a bunch of goat herders who didn’t even HAVE a air force or tanks, despite twenty years of trying and trillions of dollars spent

Yes, and this is ultimately the reason why Russia will fail to achieve its policy objectives with respect to Ukraine.

Underestimating the enemy is about the dumbest thing one can do.

Yes, that's what Russia did with respect to Ukraine. I agree with you completely.

--

This war in Ukraine has exposed the weaknesses of the Russian army. The Russian army is a third-rate military. This is not me underestimating the Russian army, this is a consequence of the accurate information we are seeing of the weaknesses of the Russian army. The only thing that Russians have that the West should fear is its nuclear arsenal.

 

[Tigerace117]

This is ultimately the reason why Russia will fail to achieve its policy objectives with respect to Ukraine.



Yes, that's what Russia did with respect to Ukraine.

--

This war in Ukraine has exposed the weaknesses of the Russian army. The Russian army is a third-rate military. The only thing that Russians have that the West should fear is its nuclear arsenal.

We’ll see. Despite the media breathlessly reporting on anything that might be considered good news, the war is far from over.

And what we are currently doing in regards to Russia.

So what does that say about the American military, which couldn’t beat an enemy with a tiny fraction of the resources we’ve poured into Ukraine?

 

[W_Heisenberg]

We’ll see. Despite the media breathlessly reporting on anything that might be considered good news,

This is horse shit. The media has not breathlessly reported anything that might be considered good news. There has been actual good news. Ukrainians have performed well above our expectations. The Russians have performed well below our expectations.

the war is far from over.

I agree Ukraine faces an uphill battle and may likely lose the geography of Crimea and the Dunbas.

But we now know enough about how the Russian army performs on the battlefield that we can form some conclusions about how things would work out with NATO.

We now know Russia is a third-rate military power, aside from it's nuclear arsenal. Russia would lose in a conventional war against NATO.

So what does that say about the American military, which couldn’t beat an enemy with a tiny fraction of the resources we’ve poured into Ukraine?

It says that it is really easy to occupy geography but incredibly difficult to occupy a society.

Also, in Iraq and in Afghanistan we learned some hard lessons which we likely taught to the Ukrainians. And this isn't about tactics, necessarily. It's a new way of thinking about war and strategy.

Russia is still fighting 75 years in the past, in a mental sense.

 

[Tigerace117]

This is horse shit. The media has not breathlessly reported anything that might be considered good news. There has been actual good news. Ukrainians have performed well above our expectations. The Russians have performed well below our expectations.



I agree Ukraine faces an uphill battle and may likely lose the geography of Crimea and the Dunbas.

But we now know enough about how the Russian army performs on the battlefield that we can form some conclusions about how things would work out with NATO.

We now know Russia is a third-rate military power, aside from it's nuclear arsenal. Russia would lose in a conventional war against NATO.




It says that it is really easy to occupy geography but incredibly difficult to occupy a society.

Also, in Iraq and in Afghanistan we learned some hard lessons which we likely taught to the Ukrainians. And this isn't about tactics, necessarily. It's a new way of thinking about war and strategy.

Russia is still fighting 75 years in the past, in a mental sense.

All you have to do is look at the thread titles in the Russia-Ukraine forum to see dozens of examples of the media doing exactly that. If all you had to go on was the media’s reports you’d think the Ukrainians were in Moscow by now

Hitler made that exact assumption after the Winter War, funnily enough. Remind us how that went for him?

Once again, underestimating the enemy is the dumbest thing one can do, and yet Americans repeat the same mistakes....over, and over, and over again.

No, we very much didn’t, if the drumbeat for NATO intervention in Ukraine by some on here is anything to go by.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

All you have to do is look at the thread titles in the Russia-Ukraine forum to see dozens of examples of the media doing exactly that. If all you had to go on was the media’s reports you’d think the Ukrainians were in Moscow by now

Hitler made that exact assumption after the Winter War, funnily enough. Remind us how that went for him?

Once again, underestimating the enemy is the dumbest thing one can do, and yet Americans repeat the same mistakes....over, and over, and over again.

No, we very much didn’t, if the drumbeat for NATO intervention in Ukraine by some on here is anything to go by

Yes people are excited. They are excited because Ukraine has had great success to what was expected. They’ve done remarkable damage to the Russian army, as I’ve posted in detail.

 

[Tigerace117]

Yes people are excited. They are excited because Ukraine has had great success to what was expected. They’ve done remarkable damage to the Russian army, as I’ve posted in detail.

Being “excited” is not an excuse for being ignorant.