The Belarus Dilemma: For Miensk and the West

[Litwin]

great talk. comments?



"Strategically located between Europe and Russia, Belarus has leaned largely toward Moscow, but at the same time has maintained a good relationship with Ukraine and has sought at least some improvement in a relationship with the West. The growing tensions between Minsk and Moscow, caused by the disputes over imports and gas supplies and Belarus’ rejection to establish a Russian air base in its territory, gives Minsk additional incentives to bolster a tie with the West. At this event, the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center will host a panel discussion, which will explore the elements and challenges of Belarusian security and its implications for NATO and Russia."

 

[Rogue Valley]

Belarus has almost the same problem as Ukraine … situated on the border of a militaristic and expansionist nuclear-weapons behemoth. Since 1991, Belarus has attempted to placate Moscow and avoid tensions with the West. This strategy has worked until recently. Now Moscow demands more than mere loyalty at the UN, it demands integration on its terms. Like it or lump it. That's how the Kremlin operates these days ... do things our way or the "little green men" will be paying a visit. Another problem is that Belarus, to a greater degree than Ukraine, is riddled with Russian spy's and sympathizers. The urban areas are mostly Russian speakers. I'm not sure how long Minsk can hold Putin at bay. I'm sure Vova considers Belarus as a land-bridge to Lithuania, Kaliningrad, and Poland. He could also threaten central and western Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. They're in a bad spot militarily. I think Lukashenko will have to decide on either confederation with Moscow or risk invasion. Moscow would present it as the old excuse of "protecting Russian speakers" and then holding a phony confederation/annexation referendum like what occurred in Crimea.

Another problem is that Belarus does not have warm relationships with its neighbors as does Ukraine. That leaves the nation more isolated if the **** hits the fan.

 

[Abbazorkzog]

Belarus is an autocratic dictatorship of 1984-lite proportions. Couldn't give a **** less what happens to Belarus as long as they're free of that god-awful terrifying and disgusting tyrant.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Belarus is an autocratic dictatorship of 1984-lite proportions. Couldn't give a **** less what happens to Belarus as long as they're free of that god-awful terrifying and disgusting tyrant.

Lukashenko has mellowed and is trying to escape Putin's grasp. I've been to Belarus with no problems. Limited social dissent is tolerated. Just don't openly challenge the regime.